Understanding the Step 1 Mean (because I don't).

[NastySpice]

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Alright - I do not fully understand the step 1 mean. I took the exam on May 5th, and it said "the mean for recent administrations of the exam has been 227". However, I understand 227 to be the 2013 mean for the exam? I take this quote from wikipedia:

"As of July 2013, the national mean score is 227, with a standard deviation of approximately 22; an increase from the previous four means, which were 220 (standard deviation of 20), 221 (standard deviation of 23), 218 (standard deviation of 23) and 215 (standard deviation 20)."

Are these the means for the past 4 years? Do they do yearly means? Or are the means done for a section of months (i.e. a mean from before May 12 2014, when they "changed the blocks", and a mean for after). I really don't understand what mean I'm being judged against, and what mean (if any) residencies see alongside my score. Do I have to wait for 2014 to be done, or almost done, for an official "2014" mean?

Last question, and this is a "wild card" question - does the NBME change what the mean is set to from time to time? I.e. did they recently reset the mean to 227? Or did does this reflect that students really did score better (in terms of raw score) in the year 2013. Like aberrantly well, looking at past means. Thanks in advance!

 

[thehundredthone]

No one knows for sure, but if you take them at face value, it meas that the last time the mean was set, the average scores since the previous mean was set was 227. I don't think they arbitrarily reset the mean, it wouldn't be the mean in that case. You can't obviously make as much of it as you could if they told you what the median score was, but it is what it is.

On the other hand, the general consensus seems to be that programs don't really judge based on the official mean, but based on the kinds of scores they see when applications come in. We have some PDs on the MD forums, try looking there, maybe they've posted something about this.

 

[NastySpice]

No one knows for sure, but if you take them at face value, it meas that the last time the mean was set, the average scores since the previous mean was set was 227. I don't think they arbitrarily reset the mean, it wouldn't be the mean in that case. You can't obviously make as much of it as you could if they told you what the median score was, but it is what it is.

On the other hand, the general consensus seems to be that programs don't really judge based on the official mean, but based on the kinds of scores they see when applications come in. We have some PDs on the MD forums, try looking there, maybe they've posted something about this.

Alright. Makes some sense.... But what do you mean when you say "the last time the mean was set?" Do they do this once a year?

I understand the concept of scaled score, bell curve, positive skew. Etc etc.... But still I feel that we are given so little information that I don't really know what my score means. A LOT goes into the score but since most of it is totally blackboxed, I just don't know. But you're right, for a residency program , it would make sense to simply line up the applicants and compare scores.

 

[HatWobble]

What sort of information are you hoping to glean from "fully understand[ing]" your score?

 

[NastySpice]

What sort of information are you hoping to glean from "fully understand[ing]" your score?

Well, I may not have been fully clear, but right now I only have "a number" that I can compare to my peers, or historical numbers. I would like to know, say, the mean for all test takers from Jan 2014 through May 2014, or maybe the mean for all of 2014. Obviously, this is to be determined, since June is the most popular month to take the test (apparently).

Perhaps what I'm most curious about is this: "As of July 2013, the national mean score is 227, with a standard deviation of approximately 22; an increase from the previous four means, which were 220 (standard deviation of 20), 221 (standard deviation of 23), 218 (standard deviation of 23) and 215 (standard deviation 20)."

227 is a hell of a jump from the past few means. I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion about this. I'm curious to see if the "next" mean, whatever that might be, is more in line with historical means. I know that the mean has been trending upwards, but still. Furthermore, was it the case that students had this test "figured out" in 2013, and then maybe NBME made the exam a bit harder this year to knock it back down a bit?

It's easy to say "I don't know, let me move on" but my curiosity has been piqued, especially considering that the process for this exam is almost totally black boxed.

 

[rodmichael82]

What sort of information are you hoping to glean from "fully understand[ing]" your score?

+1

Who cares about the average dude just chill. Stop comparing yourself to anyone, I did it and it really messed with my head. Just do you.

 

[NastySpice]

+1

Who cares about the average dude just chill. Stop comparing yourself to anyone, I did it and it really messed with my head. Just do you.

I mean... I'm not emotional about this. Just curious. lol. I'm happy with my score and I'm cool about it but I I guess I figure it is a competition, so I might as well know what's going on.

But I guess "thehundrethone" described it succinctly - at each program I apply to - I'll simply be compared to the other applicants. Greater than or less than, simple as that. Then the rest of my résumé will annihilate them either way, ha!

edit: my score is greater than or less than the other scores - a simple comparison. Was not referring to my personhood being greater than or less than. Lolz.

 

[MilkIsGood]

227 is a hell of a jump from the past few means. I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion about this. I'm curious to see if the "next" mean, whatever that might be, is more in line with historical means. I know that the mean has been trending upwards, but still.

the previous mean before 227 was 224