Waitlists = Trickle down Economics

[yodaf]

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I've recently noticed the start of significant activity in some of the "Tier 1" schools, therefore it can be expected that "Tier 2 and Tier 3" schools should begin to realize similar activity. This is clearly no real revelation but corroboration would be appreciated.

 

[dhoonlee]

.

 

[ASDIC]

trickle down theory = supply side economics = Reaganomics

 

[TheFlash]

There may be some merit in this theory, but what evidence lends you to believe that there is "a start of significant activity in Tier 1 schools?" Insider info?

 

[Mr Reddly]

Trickle down Economics ?
I was thinking more along the lines of "ladder theory".

 

[Lil'Bunny]

So, how do you know that there is activity at tier 1 schools? Where's your evidence.

Your theory is obvious too. If you're holding a seat at BU and get off the waitlist at Yale, then goodbye BU. Then BU will grab someone that is holding a seat at Drexel. And then Drexel will take someone that has only one waitlist and that is that.

 

[yodaf]

I have noticed at least 4 SDN'ers who just got off the Hopkins waitlist and a bunch of offers to the finer UC's in the past week. So let's assume that 40% of all applicants frequent the SDN boards that would mean about 10 waitlist offers to Hopkins in the past 3-4 days and a big bunch to the UC's, conservatively at least 20 spots to UC's.

It's not huge movement but it is signficant considering this movement must trickledown to all Lower ranked schools. So based on 126 accredited medical schools and say 100 of them "lower ranked schools" compared to the ones mentioned above, at least 3000+ seats will be exchanged, quite a game of musical chairs.

 

[Mr Reddly]

40% ?
I was thinking more along the lines of 10% (for california at least).

 

[exmike]

I have noticed at least 4 SDN'ers who just got off the Hopkins waitlist and a bunch of offers to the finer UC's in the past week. So let's assume that 40% of all applicants frequent the SDN boards that would mean about 10 waitlist offers to Hopkins in the past 3-4 days and a big bunch to the UC's, conservatively at least 20 spots to UC's.

It's not huge movement but it is signficant considering this movement must trickledown to all Lower ranked schools. So based on 126 accredited medical schools and say 100 of them "lower ranked schools" compared to the ones mentioned above, at least 3000+ seats will be exchanged, quite a game of musical chairs.

First of all 40% of applicants DONT go on SDN. It just seems like it b/c we only know SDN, and life couldnt possibly exist outside SDN.

Second of all, I think what matters isnt the relative waitlist movement, it is the ABSOLUTE waitlist movement. What I am talking about is how many previously unaccepted persons are now accepted. Even with a huge number of relative seats generated by 30 spots opening up at the top tier, in the end only 30 seats will be generated for those that are ONLY on waitlists. And that is a paltry number. At this point I think those that are the most concerned are those w/o ANY acceptances, rather than those trying to "move up" schools.

 

[kwanny]

uhhh... glad i wasn't an econ major...

yo, i just wanna get off my waitlists... someone... tell me... when will I get off of it?? Or better yet, will I get off of one?? 😕

 

[yodaf]

You may very well be right about the 40% issue, I picked that number to be conservative. If it is only 20% of applicants that post on SDN then you can estimate that 20 waitlist offers have just been made at Hopkins instead of 10 and 100 offers at the UC's as opposed to 20, eventhough making that extimate from a 20% sample is a bit of a stretch.

That fact would improve the absolute figure that you had discussed from 30 seats to 120 seats, which isn't bad at all. In addition most people who are orphans at this point aren't waiting for an acceptance from Harvard, most are probably on waitlists at their state schools. So some upward mobility for the Big gun students will open up the 120 spots for alot of the little guys.

 

[Mr Reddly]

At this point I think those that are the most concerned are those w/o ANY acceptances, rather than those trying to "move up" schools.

And then Kwanny had to post.


*singing*
We're a movin' on up, (We're a movin on up.)
To the east side. (Mo-vin on up.)
To a de-luxe apartment,
In the sky-.
Mo-vin' on up (Mo-vin on up.)
To the east side, (Mo-vin on up.)
We finally got a piece of the pie.
*/singing*

 

[Newquagmire]

So based on 126 accredited medical schools and say 100 of them "lower ranked schools" compared to the ones mentioned above

100/126 are "lower?"

You may very well be right about the 40% issue, I picked that number to be conservative. If it is only 20% of applicants that post on SDN then you can estimate that 20 waitlist offers have just been made at Hopkins instead of 10 and 100 offers at the UC's as opposed to 20, eventhough making that extimate from a 10% sample is a bit of a stretch.

You're assuming the % is of the entire med applicant population, which probably isn't true either...

 

[yodaf]

I apologize for my lack of clarity, maybe I can clarify it a bit. This is all very assumptive anyway.

100/126 are "lower?"

What I mean by 100 out of 126 is that the domino effect of waitlist movement will probably follow the laws of gravity and the shift would be downward. As opposed to upward or horizontally.

If you could organize all schools in a list from 1 to 126 (1 being the best and 126 being the worst, relatively of course) and you currently have a seat in school number 27 and got off the waitlist at school 26 you would theoretically open up a position in each school below. (100 seats would be exchanged but effectively 1 seat would be offered to someone without a seat, but a great deal of shuffling for all.)

You're assuming the % is of the entire med applicant population, which probably isn't true either...

I don't think it makes a difference what population we are counting since it's based on a assumed percentage of readers. If 20% of applicants read SDN and 4 just got off the Hopkins waitlist you can extrapolate the approximate value for the entire population 100%. This would result in a total of 20 people who have just gotten off the waitlist. The total population doesn't impact that value.

Like I said this is all very assumptive and not a science, I'm just trying to entertain myself. 🙂

 

[Newquagmire]

If you could organize all schools in a list from 1 to 126 (1 being the best and 126 being the worst, relatively of cours) and you currently have a seat in school number 27 and got off the waitlist at school 26 you would theoretically open up a position in each school below. (100 would be exchanged but effectively 1 seat would be offered to someone without a seat, but a great deal of shuffling for all.)

You're probably right. There are cases where the seat is unable to be filled too, aren't there?

I don't think it makes a difference what population where couting since it's based on a assumed percentage of readers. If 20% of applicants read SDN and 4 just got off the Hopkins waitlist you can extrapolate the approximate value for the entire population 100%. This would result in a total of 20 people just may have just gotten off the waitlist. The total population doesn't impact that value.

What I meant is that the people who post/are on SDN probably do not (numerically) represent the entire spectrum of applicants. That is to say, for example, that people not on SDN prefer the color orange while SDNers have a strange hatred of that color.

Silly analogy #2: check.

 

[yodaf]

You're probably right. There are cases where the seat is unable to be filled too, aren't there?

I heard that a couple of years ago a couple of schools actually had to offer seats to people that they had rejected earlier in the process in order to fill their class. I wonder if thats happened again recently?

 

[gary5]

I've recently noticed the start of significant activity in some of the "Tier 1" schools, therefore it can be expected that "Tier 2 and Tier 3" schools should begin to realize similar activity. This is clearly no real revelation but corroboration would be appreciated.

Thanks for the info! Any movement is good movement. I estimate SDN activity at something like 10-20% of applicants. I am still hopeful to make it off of a waitlist. I hope my optimism and effort pay off! Good luck!

🙂 😍 🙂