Umm. Psst.....250 is more than 1 standard deviation above the mean. Hardly average.
As stated above, 250ish people in my med school class, not discussing Step 1 scores.
A number of them went for Anesthesia (I forget the actual number, but it was prob something like 10-20?). Since the people applying to Anesthesia all know who each other are, it would be instantly apparent if someone didn't match. All I'm saying, is that as a n=1, we didn't have anyone not match into Anesthesia. It's not serious evidence. Let's go to the serious evidence.
According to 2011 outcomes,
1095 of US (allopathic) Seniors matched while 41 didn't. 96% of US Seniors matched, putting it on par (+/- 2%) with Rads, FM, IM, Neurology, OB/Gyn, Pathology, Pediatrics, and Psychiatry.
There were 1.1 applicants per position (460 of which were independent applicants). This was tied for lowest with Radiology and Pediatrics (FM was 1.3, IM was 1.5). This stat doesn't mean a lot since Rad Onc was at 1.2 (self-selection for each of the lowest ratio specialties)
Mean Step 1 was 226, Step 235, 8.9% AOA for those who matched as US Seniors. the IQR For Step 1 was 215-235, Step 2 225 - 245ish.
Here are the match vs unmatched stats for Step 1 score ranges for US Seniors:
181-190: 14 match vs 8 unmatched
191 - 200: 50 vs 16
201 -210: 121 vs 8
211 - 220: 223 vs
2
221+: 674 vs
6
If you had greater than a 200, you had a 80-85% of matching. > 220? Close to 95%.
I just don't know why you guys think Anesthesia is 'competitive'? It used to be more competitive, and the top tier places obviously are still competitive, but it's going through a small spell of uncompetitiveness similar to Radiology. This is most easily recognized by the number of unmatched spots in both Anes and Rads (at least 2 years now there have been 40(?)ish spots in both specialties).
So assuming an average Step 1 (mid 220s) and an average Step 2 (230s), OP would have a 95% shot of matching anesthesia. I don't know see where the argument against the evidence is here.
On a side note - someone who only passes everything is NOT the worst applicant. Anyone who remediates (F/P) or repeats a year is a worse applicant, period. All this being said, discussing only pre-clinical grades (without at least Step 1 or clinical grades) in discussion of residency placement is generally fruitless and a significant exercise in mental mastrubation.
Last point - Just passing (70%) on all pre-clinical classes is absolutely not the same as just passing Step 1 (192 or whatever). I will agree on that. When I meant 'passing' I meant in regards to the pre-clinical curriculum, not on just passing Step 1.