Why Are US Medical School Acceptance Rates So High?

[doctorDoctor.]

Before you bash me: I'm referring to total acceptance rates across all medical schools for every applicant.

Most medical schools have a dismally low acceptance rate (around 1% at top schools and 2~3% at others), but the national acceptance rate is consistently between 40~50%, which seems incredibly high for something so infamously competitive. How is this so?

I'm still a high school student so I may just be ignorant on this, so please excuse me on that. But doesn't the high percentage mean that getting accepted to any medical school is relatively easy, if you don't care about rankings?

Also, does the high percentage include DO schools and the Caribbean medical schools? (If that's the case, then it might make more sense... What's the national acceptance rate of just MD schools, excluding Caribbean?)

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[steelersfan1243]

Because each applicant applies to ~15 schools

Meaning low acceptance on the school level, but higher for the overall applicant pool

 

[bararaboi]

Part of it has to do with the fact that there's a lot of weeding out that happens before the application process itself, whether it's with the MCAT or required prerequisites.

 

[Doug Underhill]

Also, does the high percentage include DO schools and the Caribbean medical schools? (If that's the case, then it might make more sense... What's the national acceptance rate of just MD schools, excluding Caribbean?)

Nope. Those statistics are not tabulated. I suspect that slightly less than 50% of applicants get in via MD or DO- probably around 48%, but nobody knows for certain.

Many pre-meds are weeded out by grades. Other pre-meds are weeded out by the MCAT or just deciding on a career path more sane than medicine. Those that actually apply are only a fraction of those that started, probably <30%. If you take that 48% number to that 30%, only around 14% of those that start will end up with a MD or DO.

 

[Promethean]

Based on the number of people who started out as "pre-meds" and ended up in other fields, I'd guess that fewer than 10% of those who started college with the plan to go into medicine actually apply. I can't tell you the number of nurses, lawyers, bus drivers, stage hands, accountants I know who "were going to go into medicine but decided against it because..." Some were weeded out by grades, but a healthy number just looked at what they were really signing up for and noped all the way down to the advising office to change their majors.

 

[Mwooster]

Basic statistics: for simplicity's sake, if a good applicant has about a 2% acceptance rate at any med school, and this "prototypical" applicant applies to 20 schools, you get the 40% national average of getting accepted at least 1 school

US Allopathic (MD) only for the ~41% you see

 

[johnnytest]

Basic statistics: for simplicity's sake, if a good applicant has about a 2% acceptance rate at any med school, and this "prototypical" applicant applies to 20 schools, you get the 40% national average of getting accepted at least 1 school

US Allopathic (MD) only for the ~41% you see

This. Additive probability.

 

[BluMist]

Basic statistics: for simplicity's sake, if a good applicant has about a 2% acceptance rate at any med school, and this "prototypical" applicant applies to 20 schools, you get the 40% national average of getting accepted at least 1 school

US Allopathic (MD) only for the ~41% you see

This. Additive probability.

 

[Mwooster]

for simplicity's sake

I said it's a simple way of looking at it. The logic behind the math (additive probability) is correct.

From your posts, you seem like a funny SDNer. Let's discuss the finer points of matriculation data/statistics after you get accepted to a US MD school, @BluMist , shall we?

 

[kmp0410]

Also, there's probably not a large number of people applying with no chance. It's an expensive and intensive process with lots of hoops to that point. The stats and averages are easy to see so you wouldn't think people are just applying blindly. So the people who are applying have already taken the classes and the MCAT as well as gotten the other things required for the most part.

 

[GrapesofRath]

The thing people should realize is for the majority of states more than half of successful applicants will end up staying IS for medical school. While you see 2-3% accceptance rates thrown around for lower tier OOS schools, for IS schools the acceptance rates are often much higher for IS applicants.

There are honestly some states(ie Mississippi or WVU as an example) that probably accept close to half of their IS applicants.
https://www.aamc.org/download/321442/data/factstablea1.pdf

You can get a rough guesstimate for some acceptance rates using this data. There are many many states where the acceptance rate for IS applicants probably hovers closer to 20% if not higher.

 

[terra330]

Basic statistics: for simplicity's sake, if a good applicant has about a 2% acceptance rate at any med school, and this "prototypical" applicant applies to 20 schools, you get the 40% national average of getting accepted at least 1 school

Ends up being more like 33%.

 

[BluMist]

not sure if serious, especially that last (unnecessary) comment 😵
Additive probability is definitely not correct. If I have 50% chance of getting head on a coin toss, just because I toss it twice, does not mean now I have a 50+50=100% chance of getting head.

edit: remove snark

I said it's a simple way of looking at it. The logic behind the math (additive probability) is correct.

From your posts, you seem like a funny SDNer. Let's discuss the finer points of matriculation data/statistics after you get accepted to a US MD school, @BluMist , shall we?

 

[Goro]

You'd be surprised! I estimate that at least 50% of people applying have no business setting foot on a med school campus, except maybe as a standardized patient.

The wise @gyngyn has mentioned once having to read an app from a person with a single digit MCAT score. No, not one category, ....for the entire exam!

Oddly, you see the same stats when people apply to faculty positions.

Also, there's probably not a large number of people applying with no chance. It's an expensive and intensive process with lots of hoops to that point. The stats and averages are easy to see so you wouldn't think people are just applying blindly. So the people who are applying have already taken the classes and the MCAT as well as gotten the other things required for the most part.

 

[Law2Doc]

Despite what Goro has posted, self selection is huge. Most people who are B- students with subpar MCAT scores are told not to bother. At many undergrads, something like 90% of those who were "premed" freshman year are no longer premed senior year. So your 50% acceptance rate is for the 10% that are still in the running (or an effective 5% rate).

And fwiw, it would be somewhat difficult to get single digits on the mcat without knowing and intentionally avoiding the right answers, so I suspect an intentional tanking. Probably someone who wasn't brave enough to just say no to parents and found an out.

 

[Mwooster]

not sure if serious, especially that last (unnecessary) comment 😵
Additive probability is definitely not correct. If I have 50% chance of getting head on a coin toss, just because I toss it twice, does not mean now I have a 50+50=100% chance of getting head.

edit: remove snark

My good (wo)man, I never said my math was correct. Just tried to invoke the spirit of additive probability & quickly explain to a high schooler where the 40% could have possibly come from.

Wish you the best of luck whenever you apply

 

[gyngyn]

The wise @gyngyn has mentioned once having to read an app from a person with a single digit MCAT score. No, not one category, ....for the entire exam!

We only had 4 applicants with a total (old MCAT) <10 this year...
There were quite a few with <477, though.

 

[Goro]

I rest my case.

We only had 4 applicants with a total (old MCAT) <10 this year...
There were quite a few with <477, though.

 

[Psai]

We only had 4 applicants with a total (old MCAT) <10 this year...
There were quite a few with <477, though.

Did they get in?

 

[Toutie]

My guess would be there never even got a secondary, let alone an interview invite!

 

[Gurby]

Basic statistics: for simplicity's sake, if a good applicant has about a 2% acceptance rate at any med school, and this "prototypical" applicant applies to 20 schools, you get the 40% national average of getting accepted at least 1 school

US Allopathic (MD) only for the ~41% you see

Given that good applicant has 2% acceptance rate -> 98% chance of no acceptance. Applying to 20 schools, we do 0.98^20 = 0.668 = 67% chance of no acceptance = 33% chance of acceptance.

 

[FistLength]

We only had 4 applicants with a total (old MCAT) <10 this year...
There were quite a few with <477, though.

This would be absolutely inappropriate, but I would be tempted to invite just to ask...HOW did you manage to score less than 10, then have the balls to apply! Is that bottom 99% or something? Quite impressive.

 

[gyngyn]

This would be absolutely inappropriate, but I would be tempted to invite just to ask...HOW did you manage to score less than 10, then have the balls to apply! Is that bottom 99% or something? Quite impressive.

What really bothers me is that people who purport to mentor these applicants aided and abetted them in this travesty. They don't bother to do anything close to due diligence before writing an LOE.

 

[bunchesonothing]

Given that good applicant has 2% acceptance rate -> 98% chance of no acceptance. Applying to 20 schools, we do 0.98^20 = 0.668 = 67% chance of no acceptance = 33% chance of acceptance.

If things were more random....

What really bothers me is that people who purport to mentor these applicants aided and abetted them in this travesty. They don't bother to do anything close to due diligence before writing a LOE.

I wonder if these were generally late MCAT takers who took a gamble on their scores...

 

[gyngyn]

I wonder if these were generally late MCAT takers who took a gamble on their scores...

Some of them have taken the MCAT more times than their total score.

 

[darknecrosforte]

not sure if serious, especially that last (unnecessary) comment 😵
Additive probability is definitely not correct. If I have 50% chance of getting head on a coin toss, just because I toss it twice, does not mean now I have a 50+50=100% chance of getting head.

edit: remove snark

We should hit up some clubs BluMist... that sounds fun

 

[WingedOx]

My guess would be there never even got a secondary, let alone an interview invite!

if gyngyn's school is like most, they'll gladly cash the kid's secondary check.

 

[RogueUnicorn]

I said it's a simple way of looking at it. The logic behind the math (additive probability) is correct.

From your posts, you seem like a funny SDNer. Let's discuss the finer points of matriculation data/statistics after you get accepted to a US MD school, @BluMist , shall we?

Don't be a douche, mr. future MD

What really bothers me is that people who purport to mentor these applicants aided and abetted them in this travesty. They don't bother to do anything close to due diligence before writing an LOE.

In fairness no letter writer of mine asked for my stats nor should they, IMO.

If on the other hand you're referring to their committee letter.... yikes...

 

[BluMist]

Given that good applicant has 2% acceptance rate -> 98% chance of no acceptance. Applying to 20 schools, we do 0.98^20 = 0.668 = 67% chance of no acceptance = 33% chance of acceptance.

 

[gyngyn]

In fairness no letter writer of mine asked for my stats nor should they, IMO.
.

A real mentor does more than just write an LOE when asked.
These candidates are more than 2 SD's from acceptable and their advisors (including members of pre-health committees) wrote glowing letters for people who are nowhere close to being real candidates. The applicants may be delusional but their advisors have no such excuse.

 

[LuluLovesMe]

This. Additive probability.

Ugh you made me laugh so loud my roommates came to check if I was ok.


If you can't get into med school, just harness the power of additive probability.

 

[LuluLovesMe]

We only had 4 applicants with a total (old MCAT) <10 this year...
There were quite a few with <477, though.

Does it bother you that the new MCAT scoring system makes the people scoring >2 SD's below the mean not even realize how poorly they did? Or do you enjoy taking the secondary money? 😛

 

[Terry Toma]

Did you know that almost 40% of the people who run in the typical Olympic 100m final will be awarded medals? That's right, it's that easy to become an Olympic medalist!

Okay, the above is obviously a bit tongue-in-cheek, but it's the same idea. You have to make it to the starting line in the first place. You don't get that 3/8 chance to win an Olympic medal if you don't make it onto your national team and perform well in qualifying rounds. You don't get that ~47% chance of being accepted to med school if you don't do all the things necessary to have an app that's worth submitting.

If every kid who raised his or her hand at freshman orientation when asked "who here is a premed" was required to submit a med school application, the acceptance rate would be in the single digits.

 

[Toutie]

Does this make you question Committee and other LOR's in general? How can you trust them with other LOR's when they recommend candidates like this?

A real mentor does more than just write an LOE when asked.
These candidates are more than 2 SD's from acceptable and their advisors (including members of pre-health committees) wrote glowing letters for candidates who are nowhere close to being real candidates. The applicants may be delusional but their advisors have no such excuse.

 

[WingedOx]

Does this make you question Committee and other LOR's in general? How can you trust them with other LOR's when they recommend candidates like this?

For all the residency apps I've reviewed, I use letters to look for red flags more than expecting anything super wonderful.

 

[Arabidopsis]

.

 

[7331poas]

People are trying really hard to sell that getting into med school is hard. Sure a lot of people get weeded out, but thats true in most STEM fields.

 

[WedgeDawg]

People are trying really hard to sell that getting into med school is hard. Sure a lot of people get weeded out, but thats true in most STEM fields.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make with this post. Can you clarify?

 

[7331poas]

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make with this post. Can you clarify?

The point is that any given applicant has a 40% chance of getting into a med school on a given cycle. Those are very very good numbers, especially for a career with this kind of payoff.

The numbers are favorable compared to other professions which might pay in the 6 figures such as wall street finance which I would assume has a much higher failure rate.

 

[WedgeDawg]

The point is that any given applicant has a 40% chance of getting into a med school on a given cycle. Those are very very good numbers, especially for a career with this kind of payoff.

This isn't true because you have applicants with huge differences in applicant strengths. Saying that someone with a 3.9/41 and someone with a 3.1/26 both have a 40% chance of getting into a medical school during a given cycle wouldn't be correct. This only says that 40% of applicants who apply to medical school during a given cycle are accepted and cannot be applied to individual applicants because they are not similar enough.

The numbers are favorable compared to other professions which might pay in the 6 figures such as wall street finance which I would assume has a much higher failure rate.

I don't know enough about this to comment on wall street specifically, but I would just add that just because something is harder doesn't mean that getting into medical school isn't hard to do. The thing that might be different about medical school is that most of the weedout happens at the premed stage and very little occurs post-acceptance, whereas for things like law, the "weedout" might be split between pre-law and pre-first job.

 

[7331poas]

This isn't true because you have applicants with huge differences in applicant strengths. Saying that someone with a 3.9/41 and someone with a 3.1/26 both have a 40% chance of getting into a medical school during a given cycle wouldn't be correct. This only says that 40% of applicants who apply to medical school during a given cycle are accepted and cannot be applied to individual applicants because they are not similar enough.

Yes this is true, I could have worded my statement better. Still remains that 40% of applicants get in which is pretty damn high.

I don't know enough about this to comment on wall street specifically, but I would just add that just because something is harder doesn't mean that getting into medical school isn't hard to do. The thing that might be different about medical school is that most of the weedout happens at the premed stage and very little occurs post-acceptance, whereas for things like law, the "weedout" might be split between pre-law and pre-first job.

Hard is a relative statement. My point is that med school admissions are not as hard as they are made out to be. The 40% number is indicative of that.

Is it "hard"? Sure. But even getting a BS is hard for the general populace. So I suppose the use the word is ambiguous here.

 

[GrapesofRath]

.

 

[Lawpy]

Some of them have taken the MCAT more times than their total score.

😵😵😵😵

 

[Perseverance13]

How could people apply to medical school with a 3% percentile MCAT score. How do they think they'll fare with board exams in medical schools? I'm not in medical school, but I can reasonably assume that the material and the exams are probably exponentially worse than the material tested on the mcat. People need to be a little realistic here.

 

[Annabell Lee]

For all the residency apps I've reviewed, I use letters to look for red flags more than expecting anything super wonderful.

What kind of red flags? Is it something subtle or are you just making sure none of them say "please don't rank this jerk."

 

[efle]

The 2-3% is pretty bogus. Going off the data reported to US News there are at least a dozen schools reporting accept rates ~10+% and even some huge names like Yale and WashU report ~7-8%. Places like Stanford and Mayo with 2% rates are outliers.

 

[WedgeDawg]

The 2-3% is pretty bogus. Going off the data reported to US News there are at least a dozen schools reporting accept rates ~10+% and even some huge names like Yale and WashU report ~7-8%. Places like Stanford and Mayo with 2% rates are outliers.

I would note that at some places (i.e. Yale and WashU), applicants self-select pretty heavily (at least relatively). Stanford probably has more of the "why the hell not" thing going for it, which is why it's so much lower.

It's hard to use a one-acceptance-rate-fits-all number for a model here because of the huge variability of what goes into those rates, particularly with IS vs OOS factors.

 

[efle]

I would note that at some places (i.e. Yale and WashU), applicants self-select pretty heavily (at least relatively). Stanford probably has more of the "why the hell not" thing going for it, which is why it's so much lower.

It's hard to use a one-acceptance-rate-fits-all number for a model here because of the huge variability of what goes into those rates, particularly with IS vs OOS factors.

Yeah I'm sure some schools like Brody (East Carolina) only have crazy high accept rates (13%) because OOS know better than to waste time applying. Another thing is class size, eg Harvard and Stanford are both going to get a lot of hail mary apps and both going to attract the best of the best, but the former being 1.53x in size is almost exactly reflected in accept rates (a 1.46 ratio of 3.5% to 2.4%).

Overall though like half the Top 10-20 sit at and above ~5% (list of some examples below ranging 4.5-8.5%). When people build reasonable lists of 10+ schools it's not surprising that about half get in somewhere.

Icahn School of Med at Mt. Sinai
Washington University in St. Louis School of Med
University of Michigan Medical School
Yale School of Medicine
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Med
New York University School of Medicine
University of Pittsburgh School of Med
Johns Hopkins University School of Med
Perelmen School of Med at University of Pennsylvania

 

[GrapesofRath]

Where are people getting data about acceptance rates-----schools list matriculants in a class sure, but I have yet to see a single source for schools that list the number of people accepted. Some schools on their website will list it, but the large majority don't tell you how many they accepted and out of those how many matriculated.

 

[piii]

Simple.

Acceptance rate = 1 - rejection rate

If each application applies to 20 schools each with a 2% acceptance rate, then:

= 1 - (.98^20) x 100%
= 34% acceptance rate

Obviously it's way more variable than that, buts that the gist in the most simplified form. If you average out all the acceptance rates, then you get the national average.