Why is the ortho product favored here over the para?

[FROGGBUSTER]

This is from a Kaplan test. The result of this reaction is, as you'd expect, the nitro substituting ortho and para to the methyl group.

However, Kaplan states in its solution that the major product would be the ortho one and the minor product is para.

Why is this?

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[LetsGo2DSchool]

This is debatable and I remember reading about it in my orgo lab textbook. Due to sterics, the para position is preferred and one would think that would be the major product. However, just due to pure statistics, ortho has two positions vs. one para position and thus more binding opportunities (2 to 1), the major product can be the ortho one. There are inconsistencies between textbooks so I'm not sure which is the correct answer choice. I just hope both choices don't appear on the actual DAT.

 

[FROGGBUSTER]

Thanks.