Why the big fuss about "average AAMC?"

[Rhino1000]

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Why do people consider (or has it been informally "proven?") the AVERAGE AAMC score the best predictor of your actual performance, over the average of your last two AAMC scores? It seems that it is so popular to take all 8-9 AAMC's over a period of about a month - wouldn't this suggest that your average AAMC score would be a better predictor of a theoretical MCAT exam performed about halfway through the last month of your studying, instead of your performance at the end of your studies? It would seem that even though the last two weeks of your studying may not help increase your score too much, they wouldn't be so useless as not to improve your score by even a meager point.

Who came up with this theory, and why? Is it just a precaution so people aren't overly optimistic about their performance? Is it an attempted adjustment for stress-related performance declines?

 

[Mad Jack]

If your scores are wildly different between beginning and end, then your final score will most likely be more predictive of the MCAT results you ultimately receive. My AAMC practice tests ranged from 33-36 if I remember correctly, ended up with a 35 on the real thing. They are pretty predictive, +/- a couple points, or so the anecdotal results of many seem to suggest. If your final four or five tests average out to 32, you'll probably be somewhere between 30-34. If you're scoring an average of 30, don't expect a 36, but don't expect a 24 either.

 

[miss chievous]

I don't think the averages are always accurate. The test is so random that you never really know. I averaged a 7 in verbal and somehow pulled off a 10 on the real thing. I also averaged a 13 BS on my last few AAMCs but dropped down to a 10 on the real exam. My PS was the only thing that was similar.

 

[DoctorWhoo]

Why do people consider (or has it been informally "proven?") the AVERAGE AAMC score the best predictor of your actual performance, over the average of your last two AAMC scores? It seems that it is so popular to take all 8-9 AAMC's over a period of about a month - wouldn't this suggest that your average AAMC score would be a better predictor of a theoretical MCAT exam performed about halfway through the last month of your studying, instead of your performance at the end of your studies? It would seem that even though the last two weeks of your studying may not help increase your score too much, they wouldn't be so useless as not to improve your score by even a meager point.

Who came up with this theory, and why? Is it just a precaution so people aren't overly optimistic about their performance? Is it an attempted adjustment for stress-related performance declines?

If you take many practice MCATs and then remove outliers (imagine your first practice exam is 5+ points below the rest) the average you receive will have a more narrow confidence interval than if you simply took the average of the last two practice exam scores. Put simply, for a number of reasons a sample size of 10 is better than a sample size of 2 when you are trying to draw conclusions.

That said, the MCAT is not completely predictable, so there is still plenty of room for fluctuation around your calculated average.

 

[Bovary]

Why do people consider (or has it been informally "proven?") the AVERAGE AAMC score the best predictor of your actual performance, over the average of your last two AAMC scores? It seems that it is so popular to take all 8-9 AAMC's over a period of about a month - wouldn't this suggest that your average AAMC score would be a better predictor of a theoretical MCAT exam performed about halfway through the last month of your studying, instead of your performance at the end of your studies? It would seem that even though the last two weeks of your studying may not help increase your score too much, they wouldn't be so useless as not to improve your score by even a meager point.

Who came up with this theory, and why? Is it just a precaution so people aren't overly optimistic about their performance? Is it an attempted adjustment for stress-related performance declines?

In my own experience, I was 98% prepared for the MCAT half a month before my test. Those last two weeks of taking a few more practice tests and reviewing them can be helpful for nailing down section timing and reviewing some content, but the vast bulk of the work was already done. My scores were pretty steady during that last month (mostly within a 3-point range if I remember correctly) and my real MCAT was smack dab in the middle of that range.

Anecdotally, one's real MCAT performance tends to resemble their average performance on those last few AAMC practice tests. Seeing evidence (albeit anecdotal and perhaps response-biased) of this relationship is important to many nervous test-takers who want to know what their AAMC results "mean".

 

[mrh125]

I don't think the averages are always accurate. The test is so random that you never really know. I averaged a 7 in verbal and somehow pulled off a 10 on the real thing. I also averaged a 13 BS on my last few AAMCs but dropped down to a 10 on the real exam. My PS was the only thing that was similar.

that's the truth. a lot of the questions feel like they're pulled from absolutely nowhere.