Will s/c GPA and MCAT eventually plateau?

[drvfedorov]

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Hi everyone,

I have been reading some threads from previous years, mostly the "underdog" threads, and it seems to me that every year the competitive GPA and MCAT increase. Right now the consensus seems to be that if you have 3.4x and 502-507 you have an extremely good chance at matching somewhere.

My question is, as the years go on and students begin to apply more and more, will these numbers eventually reach MD standards? Or will we see a plateau?

Thank you

 

[Goro]

Haven't a clue! The economy is a big factor in med school admissions.

 

[drvfedorov]

what do you mean by the economy? I am assuming if the schools need more money they'll keep taking in below MD standard applicants? But I am thinking with the merger wouldn't DO schools also become more competitive. This purely hypothetical, I just wanted to get some better insight from some of the experts like yourself.

 

[Alexx9542]

Hi everyone,

I have been reading some threads from previous years, mostly the "underdog" threads, and it seems to me that every year the competitive GPA and MCAT increase. Right now the consensus seems to be that if you have 3.4x and 502-507 you have an extremely good chance at matching somewhere.

My question is, as the years go on and students begin to apply more and more, will these numbers eventually reach MD standards? Or will we see a plateau?

Thank you

DO stats have been rising constantly; I believe it will continue to rise as close to MD standards.

 

[tony101]

Hi everyone,

I have been reading some threads from previous years, mostly the "underdog" threads, and it seems to me that every year the competitive GPA and MCAT increase. Right now the consensus seems to be that if you have 3.4x and 502-507 you have an extremely good chance at matching somewhere.

My question is, as the years go on and students begin to apply more and more, will these numbers eventually reach MD standards? Or will we see a plateau?

Thank you

Yes probably. Now MD standards are ridiculous(3.6-3.7 and 508+). Yes eventually(probably 4-6 years) DO will have stats that are very similar to MD. Really because there isn't much of a difference to be honest.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

My personal view on the matter is that DO will get to the point MD is at now and MD will reach the level of competitiveness seen in Canada. Then it will probably come back down to current levels or lower as the economy continues to change and physician salaries decrease. At some point I think all DO schools will just become community focused MD schools that have some sort of PC contract upon admission and the DO degree will become history. MD schools will be specialty producers, LCME will overtake COCA, yada yada yada. This will be long after we are all attendings though IMO.

 

[tony101]

My personal view on the matter is that DO will get to the point MD is at now and MD will reach the level of competitiveness seen in Canada. Then it will probably come back down to current levels or lower as the economy continues to change and physician salaries decrease. At some point I think all DO schools will just become community focused MD schools that have some sort of PC contract upon admission and the DO degree will become history. MD schools will be specialty producers, LCME will overtake COCA, yada yada yada. This will be long after we are all attendings though IMO.

You mean like 5-10 years or are you talking like in decades?(like 50-60 years?)

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

Eh it's tough to say, personally I feel like maybe 15-25 for a range. I think the GME merger is the first step in a slow evolving process

 

[drvfedorov]

personally I feel like maybe 15-25 for a range

agreed. My main concern is the next 1-3 years. I preparing my app for the 2017 or 2018 cycle and seeing the past trends is making me think that a 3.4x will not be competitive at all. It'll be more like 3.6+ and 510, and even greater being Canadian (see my other thread).

 

[tony101]

agreed. My main concern is the next 1-3 years. I preparing my app for the 2017 or 2018 cycle and seeing the past trends is making me think that a 3.4x will not be competitive at all. It'll be more like 3.6+ and 510, and even greater being Canadian (see my other thread).

I feel like its moving really quick. 4 years ago, a 30 on the Mcat was very competitive for MD schools and now you just need a 30 to be looked at. I mean I think DO schools will follow the same trend in around 5 years or so. But who knows, I don't know anything

 

[memos]

As a planned applicant for the 2019 cycle, I sure as hell hope the DO gpa plateaus. Seeing the average gpa for MDs rise every single year kills me inside.

I'm convinced that by 2018 my gpa will be treated as a leper by most, if not all, MD schools (other than caribbean I suppose).

 

[mathnerd88]

As a planned applicant for the 2019 cycle, I sure as hell hope the DO gpa plateaus. Seeing the average gpa for MDs rise every single year kills me inside.

I'm convinced that by 2018 my gpa will be treated as a leper by most, if not all, MD schools (other than caribbean I suppose).

They all go up equally. If MD stats go up, so will DO stats. The only way to bring down the stats average is if you open more MD/DO schools, the economy is doing well so people are choosing other careers besides medicine, or if it becomes not financially feasible to go into medicine because of the healthcare system.

 

[DrMikeP]

Assuming the number of applicants continue to increase faster than schools. Yes stats will continue to increase for both MD and DO but eventually that increase will go from 1 pt per year to 1 pt every 3-5 yrs. DO has more room to grow so expect the rise to be more rapid than MD.

 

[Wjldenver]

what do you mean by the economy? I am assuming if the schools need more money they'll keep taking in below MD standard applicants? But I am thinking with the merger wouldn't DO schools also become more competitive. This purely hypothetical, I just wanted to get some better insight from some of the experts like yourself.

I believe Goro is alluding to economic substitution. When the economy is poor, top students tend to apply to various medical programs because health care is fairly recession proof. However, when the economy is thriving, more of the top students tend to look at other alternatives which may have a higher ROI. For example, after just two years at Harvard Business school, you can net an entry level position which pays $130K+. That is more than twice what a resident makes with two years of additional education and two years of additional tuition/debt to repay.

 

[kingkapoor]

I believe Goro is alluding to economic substitution. When the economy is poor, top students tend to apply to various medical programs because health care is fairly recession proof. However, when the economy is thriving, more of the top students tend to look at other alternatives which may have a higher ROI. For example, after just two years at Harvard Business school, you can net an entry level position which pays $130K+. That is more than twice what a resident makes with two years of additional education and two years of additional tuition/debt to repay.

I sincerely dont mean this post to be racist but I also think it has to do with immigration. In the past 20 years we've seen a large number of immigrants from all nations. South asian nations (India, Pakistan, etc), traditionally aim for engineering or medicine, for the most part, its just how it is. AMCAS has already proven that MCAT scores are really high in these populations. As the population of these races increase, the number of applicants also increases. The number of spots sincerely has not increased at the same rate.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

I sincerely dont mean this post to be racist but I also think it has to do with immigration. In the past 20 years we've seen a large number of immigrants from all nations. South asian nations (India, Pakistan, etc), traditionally aim for engineering or medicine, for the most part, its just how it is. AMCAS has already proven that MCAT scores are really high in these populations. As the population of these races increase, the number of applicants also increases. The number of spots sincerely has not increased at the same rate.

No...

 

[Drrrrrr. Celty]

Echoing what Goro said, the more we push out from the recession and as the economy continues to improve medical school stats will plateau. It's unlikely that DO schools will reach MD stats with the exceptions of those in CA, NYC, Chicago, and possibly Miami.

Eh it's tough to say, personally I feel like maybe 15-25 for a range. I think the GME merger is the first step in a slow evolving process

I wouldn't make predictions 10 years in the future even if I had an accurate crystal ball that could see into the future. Too much can and will change for us to have any accurate perception. I personally don't put my money on COCA existing as a non-subsidiary of LCME or existing at all for example. Likewise I think we may be pushing more towards the end of the line of standardized testing in 20 years as other methods will be likely more effective, ex the potential for VR or computerized learning to change how education and testing is handled.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

I wouldn't make prediction

I agree with you but just wanted to note I was not making any prediction. Everything I said was prefaced with the note that I was sharing my personal opinions.

 

[mathnerd88]

I sincerely dont mean this post to be racist but I also think it has to do with immigration. In the past 20 years we've seen a large number of immigrants from all nations. South asian nations (India, Pakistan, etc), traditionally aim for engineering or medicine, for the most part, its just how it is. AMCAS has already proven that MCAT scores are really high in these populations. As the population of these races increase, the number of applicants also increases. The number of spots sincerely has not increased at the same rate.

If this is a factor, it is an extremely minor factor. Medical schools don't just purely accept applicants based on stats. While it is generally true that Asians test better, the majority of medical school students is not Asian.

What's causing the stats to be higher is because there are more and more applicants each year. MCAT is based on percentiles, and there were fewer people who scored a 30 10 years ago than the people scoring 30 now.

For example, top 30% of 1000 people is 300 people, but top 30% of 5000 people is 1500 people. If there are a limited amount of seats available, the stats will increase.

 

[kingkapoor]

No...

If you're going to try to insult someone and just say they are wrong (which I am not) you should probably use your big boy words and actually explain why. I realize this is a forum where you can hide behind your computer and seem like Mr. Big shot.

The number of applicants to medical schools based on race is known to be a disparity now and it is the primary reason schools push for diversity programs to ensure all races are justly included in the match. This isn't something new.

To give a brief idea the agregated 2013-14 and 2015-16 cycle combined had
13,052 Hispanic. latino. or spanish origin applicants (44.3% admitted)
12,289 African American applicants ( 42.2 % admitted)
30,727 Asian applicants (42.0 % admitted)
79,260 White applicants (42.2%) admitted

As you can see percentage wise, the schools do a good job of spacing out the percentage admitted per a race and you can see there IS a disparity between the number of applicants per race. While whites is the largest Asian applicants is the second largest.

I dont have the data to 2015, but from 2003-2012 the number of Asian applicants to medical school per year changed from 6153 to 9427. Hispanic, African American remained relatively the same, and White experienced a similar increase to applicant pools of Asians.

In an article released by AMCAS "

1. For all matriculants to US medical schools in the fall of 2015, the average MCAT score for Asians (32.8) and whites (31.8) were above the average MCAT score of 31.4 for all matriculants, while the average MCAT score for Hispanics (28.0) and blacks (27.3) had average MCAT scores below the overall average (see second to last column in table). Likewise, the average GPAs for Asian (3.73) and white (3.73) matriculants were above the overall 3.70 GPA average, while the average GPAs for Hispanic (3.59) and black (3.48) matriculants were below the overall average (see last column in table)."

This trend is seen as the years increase. There has been a recent call of immigration (Seeing you are in the midwest you may not notice it, since it is mainly coastal) between 2000 and 2016 (today) of south Asian immigrants as the IT sector has increased since the dot com burst

You can find some cultural articles on your own, but being Asian-Indian myself, I can let you know that almost every Asian-Indian family friend we know was given the choice engineer, doctor (some finance, lawyer, etc), its just a cultural thing .

I believe the current stat is Indian students ADMITTED to medical schools is accounted for 12 percent of the population. The true number of applicants is probably larger. Its why you find Indian Americans/Canadians to be one of the largest populations in the Caribbean Medical schools.

This isn't the primary reason, as its a general uptrend for all races, but the sudden influx of competitively performing applicants from different countries, has certainly affected the MCAT/GPA Averages.

 

[kingkapoor]

If this is a factor, it is an extremely minor factor. Medical schools don't just purely accept applicants based on stats. While it is generally true that Asians test better, the majority of medical school students is not Asian.

What's causing the stats to be higher is because there are more and more applicants each year. MCAT is based on percentiles, and there were fewer people who scored a 30 10 years ago than the people scoring 30 now.

For example, top 30% of 1000 people is 300 people, but top 30% of 5000 people is 1500 people. If there are a limited amount of seats available, the stats will increase.

I agree, which is why in my response I said its not the only factor, but it certainly is a contributing factor and I would not consider it minuscule. My point had nothing to do with the fact Asians test better, even thought it is true. My point was immigration, and partially on the race. While Asians have been around for years the recent influx over 20 years has been large. Asians DO have the tendency to apply to medical school, as you can see from my post above. They make the second largest applicant pool even though they have been here for the shortest period of time. So over 20 years the application stress has certainly increased, especially on MD schools since their class sizes have hardly changed relative to application interest.

Now a portion that does matter regarding Asian testing is acceptance statistics. To have an 80% chance of being accepted to an MD School, as an Asian (2013-2016), wait never mind the chart doesnt have it that far, a 57.9% chance of being accepted with an MCAT between 30-32, 3.6-3.8 GPA. I'm going to skip the race names for the next ones. To have an 83.9% chance of being accepted to an MD school as a , Race 2, an MCAT between a 30-32 and 3.6-3.8 GPA are needed. To have an 81.2% chance to be accepted as Race 3, a 27-29 MCAT was needed and a 3.4-3.59 GPA, it jumps to 91 % if they get a 30-32 and 3.6-3.8. And Race 4, also does not have a percentage of 80% or higher so the max I Can tell you is, 63% for 30-32 MCAT, 3.6-3.8 GPA. In simple terms it should tell you that an Asian who wants to go to medical school needs to try extremely hard on the MCAT because a 30-32 and a 3.6-3.8 is not gonna get him in necessarily.

The MCAT itself is not really curved, the score is mainly based on the # correct/incorrect. So each person is going to have to try harder each year to do better and better on the exam, bringing the overall average up. Noting as I posted earlier white and Asian (asian primarily) have experienced the largest increase of applications over about 10 years, the general applicant pool becomes more competitive.

Note: I am all for diversity, I am just trying to explain how the trend is affected.

 

[738177]

I agree, which is why in my response I said its not the only factor, but it certainly is a contributing factor and I would not consider it minuscule. My point had nothing to do with the fact Asians test better, even thought it is true. My point was immigration, and partially on the race. While Asians have been around for years the recent influx over 20 years has been large. Asians DO have the tendency to apply to medical school, as you can see from my post above. They make the second largest applicant pool even though they have been here for the shortest period of time. So over 20 years the application stress has certainly increased, especially on MD schools since their class sizes have hardly changed relative to application interest.

Note: I am all for diversity, I am just trying to explain how the trend is affected.

Do stats exist on how Asians are doing in MCAT Verbal?
I have a couple of friends (South Asians) who tried 3-4 times to get the minimum Verbal cutoff at US med schools.
Both of them went to the Caribbean, graduated in time and now doing residency in USA. I guess it worked out for them. I know i added nothing but anecdotes to the discussion but i was just curious.

 

[kingkapoor]

Do stats exist on how Asians are doing in MCAT Verbal?
I have a couple of friends (South Asians) who tried 3-4 times to get the minimum Verbal cutoff at US med schools.
Both of them went to the Caribbean, graduated in time and now doing residency in USA. I guess it worked out for them. I know i added nothing but anecdotes to the discussion but i was just curious.

AMCAS has pages and pages of stats, there may be something on subsections. I think verbal is an issue for many people besides just Asians though, the verbal section doesn't really represent how well someone can speak English or comprehend things. I skipped studying for verbal and got a 7 lol. I have friends who are native speakers and took classes and got a 5. In-fact when he applied to SGU, after about 20 minutes of perfect interviewing, they got to the MCAT, and the lady asked him if he is a native speaker of English. My friend had like a 12 and 13 on the physical sciences and biological sciences. He was also born and brought up in the states, his mother died soon after he was born so he doesnt even speak his cultural language, just English.

 

[LuluLovesMe]

Do stats exist on how Asians are doing in MCAT Verbal?
I have a couple of friends (South Asians) who tried 3-4 times to get the minimum Verbal cutoff at US med schools.
Both of them went to the Caribbean, graduated in time and now doing residency in USA. I guess it worked out for them. I know i added nothing but anecdotes to the discussion but i was just curious.

Asian applicants have the 2nd highest verbal scores just 0.4 behind white applicants. https://www.aamc.org/download/321498/data/factstablea18.pdf

Interestingly Asian matriculants have verbal scores just 0.1 below those of white matriculants.

 

[drvfedorov]

It has been stated previously, but although the immigration may play an issue, it is a small if not minute percentage. That being said the idea of certain races performing better or worse is certainly evident, but this is not the same as immigration.

 

[mathnerd88]

I agree, which is why in my response I said its not the only factor, but it certainly is a contributing factor and I would not consider it minuscule. My point had nothing to do with the fact Asians test better, even thought it is true. My point was immigration, and partially on the race. While Asians have been around for years the recent influx over 20 years has been large. Asians DO have the tendency to apply to medical school, as you can see from my post above. They make the second largest applicant pool even though they have been here for the shortest period of time. So over 20 years the application stress has certainly increased, especially on MD schools since their class sizes have hardly changed relative to application interest.

Now a portion that does matter regarding Asian testing is acceptance statistics. To have an 80% chance of being accepted to an MD School, as an Asian (2013-2016), wait never mind the chart doesnt have it that far, a 57.9% chance of being accepted with an MCAT between 30-32, 3.6-3.8 GPA. I'm going to skip the race names for the next ones. To have an 83.9% chance of being accepted to an MD school as a , Race 2, an MCAT between a 30-32 and 3.6-3.8 GPA are needed. To have an 81.2% chance to be accepted as Race 3, a 27-29 MCAT was needed and a 3.4-3.59 GPA, it jumps to 91 % if they get a 30-32 and 3.6-3.8. And Race 4, also does not have a percentage of 80% or higher so the max I Can tell you is, 63% for 30-32 MCAT, 3.6-3.8 GPA. In simple terms it should tell you that an Asian who wants to go to medical school needs to try extremely hard on the MCAT because a 30-32 and a 3.6-3.8 is not gonna get him in necessarily.

The MCAT itself is not really curved, the score is mainly based on the # correct/incorrect. So each person is going to have to try harder each year to do better and better on the exam, bringing the overall average up. Noting as I posted earlier white and Asian (asian primarily) have experienced the largest increase of applications over about 10 years, the general applicant pool becomes more competitive.

Note: I am all for diversity, I am just trying to explain how the trend is affected.

I somewhat agree with you, but according to your statistics, the average Asian matriculant is just one point higher on the MCAT than the white applicant. (Also, the Asian applicant is not the majority of the applicants in the US.) This will not skew the statistic that heavily. If the average Asian matriculant were several points higher, than it would be a huge difference. One point is not that significant on the MCAT. It has mostly been that Asians scored higher even in the previous 10-15 years. The only conclusion from your post is that it is harder for an Asian to be accepted with lower GPA/MCAT compared to other races who are URM. It doesn't explain much the general increase in GPA and MCAT.

Also, the difference between a 31.8 and 32.8 on the MCAT is like getting 2-3 questions more correct, especially once you go on the higher range on the MCAT scoring. To get from a 25-26, you'll need a lot more questions correct than going from 32 to 33 on the MCAT.

Again, the stat increase is simply and mainly because there are more applicants. Some schools have gotten at least a 20% increase in applications recently.

 

[Dr Tony T. Chopper]

A few of the MCAT intensive DO schools have a 29-30 avg for matriculated students this year. I sort of expect another point of increase within the next 5yrs.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

That moment where you have a very detailed response crafted and then show up to find the other poster was banned

A few of the MCAT intensive DO schools have a 29-30 avg for matriculated students this year. I sort of expect another point of increase within the next 5yrs.

Honestly within 5 years I see the midwesterns breaking 31

 

[drvfedorov]

Off topic: how does one get banned?

 

[mathnerd88]

That moment where you have a very detailed response crafted and then show up to find the other poster was banned

He did have a massive ego and would not take anyone else's advice. Anyone who disagreed with him was automatically wrong in his mind.

 

[mathnerd88]

Off topic: how does one get banned?

By not following the rules of SDN.

 

[drvfedorov]

rules of SDN.

I guess I missed those. But it shouldn't be that hard.

 

[MADD!!!]

My personal view on the matter is that DO will get to the point MD is at now and MD will reach the level of competitiveness seen in Canada. Then it will probably come back down to current levels or lower as the economy continues to change and physician salaries decrease. At some point I think all DO schools will just become community focused MD schools that have some sort of PC contract upon admission and the DO degree will become history. MD schools will be specialty producers, LCME will overtake COCA, yada yada yada. This will be long after we are all attendings though IMO.

I don't think it will ever reach that high. The reason in Canada admissions is so tough is because there are so few medical schools. With the U.S. having over 140 M.D. schools alone, and more schools opening up each year, stats will remain the same or decrease with time IMO.

 

[MADD!!!]

Did Kingkapoor get banned because of this thread you guys think?

 

[MADD!!!]

.

 

[mathnerd88]

One of the mods probably got offended that they got into medical school with subpar stats because of racial profiling

Damn sherlock you answered our questions!

Is that you, kingkapoor? Coincidentally good timing for it.