15+ years from now, how difficult will it be to get into med school? Avg GPA/MCAT thoughts?

[deleted993098]

I'm especially curious as to what adcoms think!

Accepted GPA and MCAT have been rising steadily for the past few years. I'm curious how competitive the process will be in the future as it seems super competitive right now.

Here are my thoughts:

• I think an ethical CASPer-esque section will be created by the AAMC, maybe added to the MCAT?
• I also think some research experience will become a requirement for most schools.
• ECs will become even more important.
• Avg age will go up due to more people taking gap years.
• Avg gpa may rise to 3.8 (maybe higher in 20+ yrs).
• MCAT scores will rise to 515ish avg (92nd percentile).
• DO schools will become more popular and more competitive (3.5/508 maybe?)

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[Kardio]

I'm especially curious as to what adcoms think!

Accepted GPA and MCAT have been rising steadily for the past few years. I'm curious how competitive the process will be in the future as it seems super competitive right now.

Here are my thoughts:

• I think an ethical CASPer-esque section will be created by the AAMC, maybe added to the MCAT?
• I also think some research experience will become a requirement for most schools.
• ECs will become even more important.
• Avg age will go up due to more people taking gap years.
• Avg gpa may rise to 3.8 (maybe higher in 20+ yrs).
• MCAT scores will rise to 515ish avg (92nd percentile).
• DO schools will become more popular and more competitive (3.5/508 maybe?)

I'm not convinced the average GPA is really rising. You've got to consider that collegiate grade inflation will increase the average applicant/matriculant GPA.
3.7 in 2019 =/= 3.7 in 1999

 

[KnightDoc]

I'm especially curious as to what adcoms think!

Accepted GPA and MCAT have been rising steadily for the past few years. I'm curious how competitive the process will be in the future as it seems super competitive right now.

Here are my thoughts:

• I think an ethical CASPer-esque section will be created by the AAMC, maybe added to the MCAT?
• I also think some research experience will become a requirement for most schools.
• ECs will become even more important.
• Avg age will go up due to more people taking gap years.
• Avg gpa may rise to 3.8 (maybe higher in 20+ yrs).
• MCAT scores will rise to 515ish avg (92nd percentile).
• DO schools will become more popular and more competitive (3.5/508 maybe?)

With all due respect, what's the difference? Your prediction is really nothing more than extending current trends into the future. You will be correct if trends continue, and not if they change.

In any event, any changes will be gradual, and future applicants will adjust slowly over time. Requirements and expectations today are vastly than a generation ago, and would be a shock to the class of 1990, but everyone applying today doesn't give them a second thought.

20 years from now, your predictions are no more likely to materialize than nationalized medicine making the profession significantly less attractive than today, causing the best and brightest to abandon its pursuit in droves, reversing all the trends you are extrapolating from. Or miraculous cures might significantly reduce demand for medical care. Or, or, or ... Who knows, and what's the point of speculating today what the median MCAT for the class of 2042 might look like???? The only thing that matters for applicants is what the landscape looks like today.

 

[candbgirl]

That’s pretty much what is happening now and will continue to happen. Things will hardly reverse. GPAs , both MD and DO, are already rising. ECs can make or break you.

 

[907914]

Median GPA in 15 years will likely be around 3.75 (higher due to grade inflation trends) and median MCAT will likely be 84th percentile (lower due to higher growth in number of MED school seats vs number of applicants).

 

[allantois]

It depends on how many medical schools there are/ what career prospects look like/ how the economy is doing/ the landscape of healthcare/ many other factors.

I think that even today, with the number of new schools (especially on the DO side), I am not at all sure that it is more difficult to get into a school than it was 10+ years ago

 

[meepdog]

With all due respect, what's the difference? Your prediction is really nothing more than extending current trends into the future. You will be correct if trends continue, and not if they change.

In any event, any changes will be gradual, and future applicants will adjust slowly over time. Requirements and expectations today are vastly than a generation ago, and would be a shock to the class of 1990, but everyone applying today doesn't give them a second thought.

20 years from now, your predictions are no more likely to materialize than nationalized medicine making the profession significantly less attractive than today, causing the best and brightest to abandon its pursuit in droves, reversing all the trends you are extrapolating from. Or miraculous cures might significantly reduce demand for medical care. Or, or, or ... Who knows, and what's the point of speculating today what the median MCAT for the class of 2042 might look like???? The only thing that matters for applicants is what the landscape looks like today.

As part of the population that will eventually be staffing ADCOMs and the AAMC, I think it's imperative that we reflect on the process that produces medical students and doctors as we experience it. There's pretty broad consensus that the average level of stress experienced by students on this trac isn't healthy and mixed opinions on whether it makes better physicians. If we perceive the trend to be going in the wrong direction, it is absolutely worth an intelligent, informed discussion.

 

[Goro]

I'm especially curious as to what adcoms think!

Accepted GPA and MCAT have been rising steadily for the past few years. I'm curious how competitive the process will be in the future as it seems super competitive right now.

Here are my thoughts:

• I think an ethical CASPer-esque section will be created by the AAMC, maybe added to the MCAT?
• I also think some research experience will become a requirement for most schools.
• ECs will become even more important.
• Avg age will go up due to more people taking gap years.
• Avg gpa may rise to 3.8 (maybe higher in 20+ yrs).
• MCAT scores will rise to 515ish avg (92nd percentile).
• DO schools will become more popular and more competitive (3.5/508 maybe?)

Impossible to determine.
While the median stats of matriculants at both MD and DO have been rising, what will the applicant pool look like in 15 years?
If there's a recession, more people will be applying.

But right now, we're in the midst of a demographic contraction of elementary school age kids (at least in my school district). These are the kids who will be applying in 15 years.

 

[proudofmykids]

I'm not convinced the average GPA is really rising. You've got to consider that collegiate grade inflation will increase the average applicant/matriculant GPA.
3.7 in 2019 =/= 3.7 in 1999

As far as I can tell, there has been about 0.25–0.3 GPA grade inflation over the last 30 years. You can track this by looking at historical Summa, Magna and Cum Laude gpa requirements at top schools.

 

[IlDestriero]

By that time we will be Medicare for all and I’ll be retired.
Income and independence will decrease, as will the interest of the “best and brightest” so it should get easier.
Not to mention continued expansion of non physician providers and their impact on the profession.