Seems like no one learned anything from 2008. We've now entered speculative buying. People are paying 2x asking for a shack in my city. I see doctors with 5-10 real estate portfolios. Life is good! The euphoria is palpable.
What happens during an economic downturn? The NASDAQ briefly entered bear territory on Friday. Market crash---->job layoffs----> tenants can't pay rent--->foreclosures---->underwater mortgages---> housing collapse----->rinse and repeat q18 years.
Some of it is euphoria, some of it is truly market fundamentals, depends on the market.
The fundamentals have changed:
1) huge investment capital going in to single family homes. In my town, investors are buying up 20-25 percent of inventory, up from traditionally around 7 to 10 percent. This increases demand.
2) very high inflation numbers leading to increasing prices of assets. Cost to build has increased significantly, real estate prices will increase as cost of replacement increases. Real estate has always been considered a hedge against inflation.
3) very low inventory still. Inventory needs to go much much higher for any real crash. Supply and demand is favoring price increases. If supply remains constrained, then prices will keep rising.
4) very low interest rates still means housing is affordable, the monthly payments are manageable. Even if there fed increases rates 6 times this year, these rates are still historically extremely low.
I think the price increases will slow down in 2022 but probably will still continue going up, the supply just isn't there with very heavy demand especially with massive smart capital buying homes. There will be a correction at some point, but probably not 2022 as the supply demand fundamentals don't support a massive price drop. Maybe once interest rates are finally above 4.5 or 5 percent?
I'm personally too lazy to invest in active real estate, but in 2021 i put in 340k in passive syndications. To date i own shares in 11 syndications which own about 20 or so apartments around the US. Probably will double my money by 2026, while enjoying depreciation tax benefits and getting rental checks.