chances to match in FM?

[siriusblack0214]

Sorry guys if this is another repetitive 'wamc' thread but I can't shake the match day looming anxiety. I interviewed at 17 FM programs all of varying competitiveness (some community programs, some academic/university, some really hodunk middle of nowhere programs) I went to a medical school in the southeast and graduated last year. I am doing a research year this year (topic is related to FM) because I wasn't qualified to be in the match when I graduated last year since I took my step 2 too late since I had to retake it . My credentials--lower quartile, s1: 20x s2: 21x (2nd time), CS: P (2nd time also (((( ). I haven't taken S3.

do you guys think I will match? I applied to ~120 FM programs and only got those 17 interviews and went on all of them. I feel that since I got the interview, they could get past the step attempts but I don't know what the chances are that I'll just be ranked in the bottom of everyone's rank list if i'm ranked at all and not match anywhere . Would really appreciate any sincere non-trolling input.

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[CopaceticOne]

you'll find out in a little over a week what your chances are/were.

Would really appreciate any sincere non-trolling input.
btw idk why SDN shows female, but I'm a guy, lol. I'm going to try to fix that...

what the heck???

 

[siriusblack0214]

yeah i fixed it in my profile. its the correct gender now.

 

[NotAProgDirector]

17 interviews is a good sign. I assume you ranked all 17 programs.

 

[J ROD]

You will be fine.

 

[siriusblack0214]

17 interviews is a good sign. I assume you ranked all 17 programs.

yes, I ranked all 17. Can't take any chances. Given that a few of them were probably courtesy interviews (I rotated at one, another is my home program). I am concerned about my scores though--do you think this will be a huge setback in the programs' rank lists?

 

[Psai]

Dude, your match list is in and their match lists are in. There's nothing to do but wait for 2 weeks. No one can say you have a 59.4783% chance of getting in based on how many interviews you have and your stats

 

[mvenus929]

yes, I ranked all 17. Can't take any chances. Given that a few of them were probably courtesy interviews (I rotated at one, another is my home program). I am concerned about my scores though--do you think this will be a huge setback in the programs' rank lists?

FWIW, I know people who did away rotations (granted, in fields slightly more competitive than FM) and were not granted an interview.

 

[J ROD]

Dude, your match list is in and their match lists are in. There's nothing to do but wait for 2 weeks. No one can say you have a 59.4783% chance of getting in based on how many interviews you have and your stats

I believe it more like 61.23589

 

[NotAProgDirector]

If they cared too much about your scores, they wouldn't have bothered interviewing you. But as others have said, you'll know shortly and there's nothing you can do about it now. Might as well chillax.

 

[playingfrombehind]

Sorry guys if this is another repetitive 'wamc' thread but I can't shake the match day looming anxiety. I interviewed at 17 FM programs all of varying competitiveness (some community programs, some academic/university, some really hodunk middle of nowhere programs) I went to a medical school in the southeast and graduated last year. I am doing a research year this year (topic is related to FM) because I wasn't qualified to be in the match when I graduated last year since I took my step 2 too late since I had to retake it . My credentials--lower quartile, s1: 20x s2: 21x (2nd time), CS: P (2nd time also (((( ). I haven't taken S3.

do you guys think I will match? I applied to ~120 FM programs and only got those 17 interviews and went on all of them. I feel that since I got the interview, they could get past the step attempts but I don't know what the chances are that I'll just be ranked in the bottom of everyone's rank list if i'm ranked at all and not match anywhere . Would really appreciate any sincere non-trolling input.

I understand your anxiety, I'm in a similar situation, applied to similar number of programs but got 40+ more interviews....the major differences with my application was that I didn't fail step 2 CS, had a higher STep 2 CK score, had a lower step 1. I also passed step 3 during this year off , had honors in all my 4th year grades, and published alot of reserach during my year off.

but for an accurate assessment I think the following is needed:

1) any other red-flags? professionalism, school-grade failures
2) how did you do on your actual interviews?
3) post-interview communication from programs? I know people say to ignore post-communication and rank in the order of your preference but it was nice to see some love from the other side.

-I was told by residents from a few programs that they "throw your grades out the door" once you get the interivew by residents - I took that as a grain of salt and assumed the residents just wanted to clam us down.
-So it depends on the program whether or not they will take grades into consideration during the final ranking process - i.e. some programs have a formula that gives them a final score so they can quantiatively rank students.

-so really what I am trying to get at is that no one can really give you an accurate picture of your chances because matching is not based purely on your step scores and your chances of matching will also depend on what your programs take into account during their ranking process

-my advice (which is easier said then done) is that you have gone on the interviews, ranked all 17 places (I hope?), so just do something productive in the mean time like prepare for internship, study step 3, etc. Again no one can answer your question (but I understand your anxiety)

 

[siriusblack0214]

@playingfrombehind
thanks for writing, I really appreciate your input. congrats on your interviews, that is really great. You passed everything on the first attempt, right? As far as other red flags, I did not fail any rotations/clerkships or shelf exams--no failures on my transcript. I did relatively well 4th year as well. I think most of my interviews went okay, some of them went pretty well (from my perspective anyway), and a few I felt kind of iffy afterwards. I have received about 4-5 post-interview communications, but most of them were in response to my 'thank you' emails. the PDs would say things like 'oh we really enjoyed meeting you too, good luck in the match' or something generic like this. One program said they hoped that I would rank them #1 so that I would match with them this application cycle. Thats pretty much verbatim, but I'm not getting too excited over it since it is still pretty neutral feedback. I have also had residents say that once you get the interview its an even playing field, but there is no way they don't look at your application credentials. I guess I am hoping that for some places, the interview might be weighted more than some numerical scores.

 

[ZedsDed]

Anybody know why Psai was banned?

 

[GrapesofRath]

Anybody know why @Psai was banned?

I mean the guy was always kind of a dick. I didnt care, I liked his account and he had good posts and was entertaining, but I cant exactly say it shocks me he was certainly antagonist and condescending to some degree. Usually it was to pre-meds and those on the DO side of things, but if he took it a little too far especially to some other group, it's not hard to see why the ban hammer came. He either had to have a) gotten a warning or two before getting banned or b) said something really offensive(ie call someone the N word type of bad) to get banned this suddenly though.

Either that, or it's some epic troll job like the one MadJack pulled off a couple months ago where it showed he was banned but he really wasnt then came back to life a couple days later.

 

[ZedsDed]

I mean the guy was always kind of a dick. I didnt care, I liked his account and he had good posts and was entertaining, but I cant exactly say it shocks me he was certainly antagonist and condescending to some degree. Usually it was to pre-meds and those on the DO side of things, but if he took it a little too far especially to some other group, it's not hard to see why the ban hammer came. He either had to have a) gotten a warning or two before getting banned or b) said something really offensive(ie call someone the N word type of bad) to get banned this suddenly though.

Either that, or it's some epic troll job like the one MadJack pulled off a couple months ago where it showed he was banned but he really wasnt then came back to life a couple days later.

Yeah the guy contributed a lot to SDN, but he definitely came across like a socially-autistic Donald Trump.

"I obliterate boards and bang chicks in my sleep guys. It's not my fault that you're so mediocre by comparison."

That sort of thing.

 

[GrapesofRath]

Yeah the guy contributed a lot to SDN, but he definitely came across like a socially-autistic Donald Trump.

"I obliterate boards and bang chicks in my sleep guys. It's not my fault that you're so mediocre by comparison."

That sort of thing.

Hah he was just a classic cyber bully. Picked on the DOs and premeds never wasted a chance to be as condescending as he could to them. I really didnt care and honestly there alot of really good posters on here who are dicks to some extent, but eventually all that insecurity builds up and itll cause you to piss off someone who isnt a DO or pre-med which is when the ban hammer starts coming.

Trump's not a bad comparison but honestly alot of what he would post many many MD medical students/residents would believe even if they wouldnt openly say it or post it. I always kinda liked him for it and enjoyed following him for it; he has to be the most active accounts to get banned Ive seen in a while.

 

[playingfrombehind]

In response to the orig poster, Failed one of the steps and didn't match last year.

Also charting outcomes gives the percentage chance of matching. But you would be considered a independent applicant not a US senior. According to the line and never approaches hundred percent. So in terms of a number I guess that's the best you can get

With regards to the guy who was banned it is amazing what people will say or type behind the comforts their computer screen or basement

 

[nottooshabby91]

In response to the orig poster, Failed one of the steps and didn't match last year.

Also charting outcomes gives the percentage chance of matching. But you would be considered a independent applicant not a US senior. According to the line and never approaches hundred percent. So in terms of a number I guess that's the best you can get

With regards to the guy who was banned it is amazing what people will say or type behind the comforts their computer screen or basement

I disagree that the OP should consider his chances as best captured by those in the "independent" category. While, of course, strictly speaking he/she falls into that category, the category is dominated by candidates who are importantly different from him/her, namely DOs and IMGs. Very, very few of those who fall into the category of "independents" are AMGs who have already graduated, but didn't match. On the other hand, of course, the numbers of the ordinary case of AMG seniors don't really capture his/her circumstances either, since they have not failed to match. He/she really falls into a special category, namely AMGs who failed to match, but, of course, there are no statistics produced for such people. My own guess is that such people have statistics less favorable than the ordinary senior AMG, but more favorable than that of independents.

But the most encouraging thing is that he/she has gone on 17 interviews, and in FM. A non-trivial percentage of FM programs don't fill in the match each year, and if one has interviewed with such a program, and they rank you (and why wouldn't they, unless you had a horrible interview?) then you will match with them if they otherwise won't fill. With 17 interviews, probably a number of them relatively uncompetitive even for FM, I'd guess that a handful of them (maybe 3-5?) wouldn't otherwise fill. This would seem almost to guarantee a match.

 

[SLC]

I disagree that the OP should consider his chances as best captured by those in the "independent" category. While, of course, strictly speaking he/she falls into that category, the category is dominated by candidates who are importantly different from him/her, namely DOs and IMGs. Very, very few of those who fall into the category of "independents" are AMGs who have already graduated, but didn't match. On the other hand, of course, the numbers of the ordinary case of AMG seniors don't really capture his/her circumstances either, since they have not failed to match. He/she really falls into a special category, namely AMGs who failed to match, but, of course, there are no statistics produced for such people. My own guess is that such people have statistics less favorable than the ordinary senior AMG, but more favorable than that of independents.

But the most encouraging thing is that he/she has gone on 17 interviews, and in FM. A non-trivial percentage of FM programs don't fill in the match each year, and if one has interviewed with such a program, and they rank you (and why wouldn't they, unless you had a horrible interview?) then you will match with them if they otherwise won't fill. With 17 interviews, probably a number of them relatively uncompetitive even for FM, I'd guess that a handful of them (maybe 3-5?) wouldn't otherwise fill. This would seem almost to guarantee a match.

I think an AMG who went unmatched has a huge red flag, and is probably (statistically speaking) on par with the lower half of the independent applicant category.

But I agree, 17 interviews is a good sign.

 

[siriusblack0214]

@SLC
thanks for the input, really do appreciate it. I'm pretty sure I know exactly what my red flags are, and those are the step scores, because otherwise I don't have any other failures/repeats/LOAs/legal issues/etc.etc. on my record. And having graduated and not matched = because I had step 2 CS missing from my transcript because the retake took so long to get scores back. So last year it was S1, S2CK (both scores on record), and no CS. Would you think a program would take that? The only thing that has changed this year is that I have my CS score and applied with a complete application. I'm so anxious. Any thoughts?

 

[playingfrombehind]

I disagree that the OP should consider his chances as best captured by those in the "independent" category. While, of course, strictly speaking he/she falls into that category, the category is dominated by candidates who are importantly different from him/her, namely DOs and IMGs. Very, very few of those who fall into the category of "independents" are AMGs who have already graduated, but didn't match. On the other hand, of course, the numbers of the ordinary case of AMG seniors don't really capture his/her circumstances either, since they have not failed to match. He/she really falls into a special category, namely AMGs who failed to match, but, of course, there are no statistics produced for such people. My own guess is that such people have statistics less favorable than the ordinary senior AMG, but more favorable than that of independents.

But the most encouraging thing is that he/she has gone on 17 interviews, and in FM. A non-trivial percentage of FM programs don't fill in the match each year, and if one has interviewed with such a program, and they rank you (and why wouldn't they, unless you had a horrible interview?) then you will match with them if they otherwise won't fill. With 17 interviews, probably a number of them relatively uncompetitive even for FM, I'd guess that a handful of them (maybe 3-5?) wouldn't otherwise fill. This would seem almost to guarantee a match.

well according to charting outcomes everyone who is not a US senior is in the "independent category". At least you can get the most realistic/worst estimate of your chances. But even then I think it is sort of hard to quantify your chances of matching since if you had a horrific interview at every place you interviewed at your chances are still zero despite x number of interviews.

Also comparing my stats with siriusblack (OP) my stats are similar + also previous US grad from a mid/low tier school (and I even had a failure and lower step 1 score). I applied to similar number of programs but I received 40+ more interviews?

I know that some schhools allow step 1 failure but alot of the programs I applied to did not allow a step 2 CS failure - that could have been one reason but curious to know why the big diff in # of interivews.

 

[playingfrombehind]

@SLC
thanks for the input, really do appreciate it. I'm pretty sure I know exactly what my red flags are, and those are the step scores, because otherwise I don't have any other failures/repeats/LOAs/legal issues/etc.etc. on my record. And having graduated and not matched = because I had step 2 CS missing from my transcript because the retake took so long to get scores back. So last year it was S1, S2CK (both scores on record), and no CS. Would you think a program would take that? The only thing that has changed this year is that I have my CS score and applied with a complete application. I'm so anxious. Any thoughts?

Hey siriusblack did you apply to the match and soap last year and not match?
Also out of curiousity did you get a similar # of interviews last year / and did you interview at the same places as last year?

Yes I think step 2 cs would have been an issue since most of the places I applied to allow a step 1 or step 2 ck failure but not step 2 CS. I remember that requirement distinctly when I was aplying this summer.
-Also interview performance I think it is incredibly crucial in FM b/c they want to make sure they can work with you for the next 3+ years.
-also was your app geared towards FM? I think it is very obvious from anyone's app if they are applying to multiple specialties - my entire app was geared towards 100% FM - all my extras were FM-related. exceptions were that my letters were not all FM
-lastly during my interviews I always asked what the program was looking for in their canddiates - and alot of programs answered that they were looking for canddiates that could fill a need in the program - i.e. research, etc.So I think you have to be the correct puzzle piece for the program as well.
-one last thing - interaction with residents and other non-doctor staff I thought was crucial - they were always asking you questions about where you ate dinner and your schedule to see if you are paying attention (or maybe for conversation starter I don't know). So I'm sure your interactions during the entire day had a major impact as well.

 

[siriusblack0214]

Hey siriusblack did you apply to the match and soap last year and not match?
Also out of curiousity did you get a similar # of interviews last year / and did you interview at the same places as last year?

Yes I think step 2 cs would have been an issue since most of the places I applied to allow a step 1 or step 2 ck failure but not step 2 CS. I remember that requirement distinctly when I was aplying this summer.
-Also interview performance I think it is incredibly crucial in FM b/c they want to make sure they can work with you for the next 3+ years.
-also was your app geared towards FM? I think it is very obvious from anyone's app if they are applying to multiple specialties - my entire app was geared towards 100% FM - all my extras were FM-related. exceptions were that my letters were not all FM
-lastly during my interviews I always asked what the program was looking for in their canddiates - and alot of programs answered that they were looking for canddiates that could fill a need in the program - i.e. research, etc.So I think you have to be the correct puzzle piece for the program as well.
-one last thing - interaction with residents and other non-doctor staff I thought was crucial - they were always asking you questions about where you ate dinner and your schedule to see if you are paying attention (or maybe for conversation starter I don't know). So I'm sure your interactions during the entire day had a major impact as well.

@playingfrombehind
I'll answer your questions in order:
no, I did not apply last year--was advised to wait because i knew my CS would not be back before rank lists were due and was told that no program would take that risk, especially with an attempt on CK already
yes my app was geared toward FM entirely. I did not apply for any other specialty. My PS was very specific toFM and I had 4 LORs, all from family docs. I did two sub-internships in FM 4th year as well.
I had a couple places email me back and say I would fit in well or something like this. Is this a good sign or should I not read too much into it?

 

[playingfrombehind]

@playingfrombehind
I'll answer your questions in order:
no, I did not apply last year--was advised to wait because i knew my CS would not be back before rank lists were due and was told that no program would take that risk, especially with an attempt on CK already
yes my app was geared toward FM entirely. I did not apply for any other specialty. My PS was very specific toFM and I had 4 LORs, all from family docs. I did two sub-internships in FM 4th year as well.
I had a couple places email me back and say I would fit in well or something like this. Is this a good sign or should I not read too much into it?

Yeah getting post-interview communication is better than getting nothing at all but take it with a grain of salt.

Did you go on any second looks? I think it is more for our benefit but I went on second looks for my top 3 programs - it was much more intimate and got to be with the team and clinic for the entire day. Some programs invite everyone for a second look and some are e-mail their top candidates.

 

[siriusblack0214]

yeah I got invited to two second looks, one of them from my home program. Unfortunately I couldn't go because I was still traveling (in January, which is when the second looks were) for the rest of my interviews. I guess it comes with the territory of having to go on 17 interviews. I'm sure they understand, right? I wish I knew if they had invited everyone or just their top candidates.

 

[siriusblack0214]

Yeah getting post-interview communication is better than getting nothing at all but take it with a grain of salt.

Did you go on any second looks? I think it is more for our benefit but I went on second looks for my top 3 programs - it was much more intimate and got to be with the team and clinic for the entire day. Some programs invite everyone for a second look and some are e-mail their top candidates.

to @playingfrombehind
did you apply last year with the failed test score, get interviews, and not match? I'm wondering when you found out about having to retake the exam (was it CK?) and if programs knew about it? Did you already have the majority of your interviews before you found out you failed and had to retake it? Because I'm going off the assumption that for the interviews I went on, they have my complete application including attempts and if they invited me there for an interview, then they could get past the scores. But if this exact scenario happened to you and they knew about your attempt (i.e.: you applied with both the failing score and the new passing one), still invited you for an interview, but you didn't match, then that makes me nervous

 

[playingfrombehind]

to @playingfrombehind
did you apply last year with the failed test score, get interviews, and not match? I'm wondering when you found out about having to retake the exam (was it CK?) and if programs knew about it? Did you already have the majority of your interviews before you found out you failed and had to retake it? Because I'm going off the assumption that for the interviews I went on, they have my complete application including attempts and if they invited me there for an interview, then they could get past the scores. But if this exact scenario happened to you and they knew about your attempt (i.e.: you applied with both the failing score and the new passing one), still invited you for an interview, but you didn't match, then that makes me nervous

I failed step 1. I didn't apply last year. I passed all my steps except step 3 when applying this summer. I passed step 3 recently and resent those scores during my second looks

At this point I know it's hard to relax but theres nothing you really that can be done. Turn anxiety into production

Also this may be too late but for all the second looks that I went on they ask me to give them a range of dates. There was no set date. You could have asked them to reschedule your second look

Also I hope I'm not making things more stressful for you I was just trying to add some words of encouragement also if you look at one forum of IMG's from last year at least two of them matched very low step scores, lower than ours and a failure. the forum was called USMLE forum

I'm sure when it's all said and done you're going to look back and say while I shouldn't have been stressed

 

[gutonc]

Yeah getting post-interview communication is better than getting nothing at all but take it with a grain of salt.

No it's not. It means nothing. Just like not getting communication means nothing.

This year the IM PD association had an informal agreement to not contact applicants with love letters. It was clearly not hewed to by all programs, but the chatter on the IM board this year about post-interview emails was pretty minimal, suggesting that there was some adherence to it.

 

[siriusblack0214]

@playingfrombehind where is this forum you speak of?

 

[gutonc]

@playingfrombehind where is this forum you speak of?

Probably on the interwebz.

 

[playingfrombehind]

@playingfrombehind where is this forum you speak of?

@siriusblack0214
http://www.usmle-forums.com/img-res...015-family-medicine-residency-applicants.html

see above link - an IMG posted this in the forum:
"196/218/pass(2) Citizen, 1 year usce, 2013 grad, 5 IV's, 1 match"

This person failed the step 2 CS as well. This is just one example though and I thinik the only person who posted their stats (and matched) so take this result w/ a grain of salt.

But the good news is that you are in a better position than this person. Hope I'm not making this more anxiety-provoking for you!