Competitiveness of GI for an AMG

[Under-cover-gunner]

So I've been hearing over and over how GI is such a tough field to match for anyone going into IM looking for a fellowship. I understand it's the most competitive fellowship out of IM, but is it possible that some things are being blow out of proportion?

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uplo...gram-NRMP-Results-and-Data-SMS-2014-Final.pdf

Lets look at 2014 data that shows there were a total of 350 AMG that applied to GI. Of those, 297 matched, giving a roughly 85% chance of matching if if the applicant is an AMG.


http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uplo...ng-Service-1st-Edition-Published-May-2013.pdf

This is data from the fellowship match (albeit from 2013 match, so about 2 years old but the numbers shouldn't be drastically different). Mean Step 1 for people who matched was 223, Step 2 230, Step 3 221, with an average of 3 abstracts, publications, or presentations.



Now I understand that matching into GI certainly isn't a walk in the park but the way some people described it, getting ~220 on Step 1 was a death sentence bc you wouldn't match into a "top academic program" (I'm guessing top 20 school), and thus you had no shot at GI. The data that I've found so far, being only 1-2 years old, seems to show otherwise. Being the most competitive fellowship, out of a relatively uncompetitive residency (IM), does not mean you have to be a rockstar/ god's gift to man to match into GI. This isn't like the surgical subspecialties where you need ~240 with many pubs to even get considered in some places. Just wanted to get this info out there for people so that they don't feel discouraged by some people stating their board scores that are 220-230 will rule them out of GI, it's much more multifactored than that. Matching into a strong academic IM program, especially one with an in-house GI fellowship, will be fine if you're hard working and diligent enough to put the work in for GI. You don't need to get into the absolute top tier IM residencies, and being an AMG gives you historically a 85% chance to match.

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[Under-cover-gunner]

Hopefully the people who are Hepatology fellows, reapplicants, chief residents, and Hospitalists that are being lumped in with 3rd year senior applicants are not skewing the data too much.

 

[Raryn]

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uplo...ng-Service-1st-Edition-Published-May-2013.pdf

This is data from the fellowship match (albeit from 2013 match, so about 2 years old but the numbers shouldn't be drastically different). Mean Step 1 for people who matched was 223, Step 2 230, Step 3 221, with an average of 3 abstracts, publications, or presentations.

Be careful. That data was published in 2013, but it was the data for the 2011 appointment year which means it was from the 2010 match. Five years out of date at this point, with step score averages having increased roughly 10 points in the intervening time (they go up ~2 points a year).

 

[Under-cover-gunner]

Be careful. That data was published in 2013, but it was the data for the 2011 appointment year which means it was from the 2010 match. Five years out of date at this point, with step score averages having increased roughly 10 points in the intervening time (they go up ~2 points a year).

Thanks for that clarification. What is your opinion as a current resident for the chances of an AMG with average stats, ie board scores (lets say Step 1 227-233, etc) and about 3 gastro research "experiences", for getting a fellowship?

 

[Raryn]

Thanks for that clarification. What is your opinion as a current resident for the chances of an AMG with average stats, ie board scores (lets say Step 1 227-233, etc) and about 3 gastro research "experiences", for getting a fellowship?

While I surf around all of the medical subspecialty forums, I have zero experience for GI (and am applying for one of the "other subspecialties").

 

[Under-cover-gunner]

While I surf around all of the medical subspecialty forums, I have zero experience for GI (and am applying for one of the "other subspecialties").

Ah gotcha. Do you know of a Charting the Outcomes for Fellowship that is more recent than what I found?

 

[GIhopeful2016]

The NRMP just released data from the 2014 cycle. 357 out of 717 applicants applied to 181 GI programs in 2014. 298 out of 357 U.S. Grads matched. (64.2% similar to prior years) with a total of 457 applicants that matched. There were a total of 464 positions available in 181 programs. 6 programs went unfilled programs.

 

[nycscope]

With what I would bet would be a large number of chiefs, hospitalists, and hepatologists amongst those matched. Can't say for sure, but I can say that when I interviewed the majority of the candidates fit one of those descriptions.

 

[Under-cover-gunner]

With what I would bet would be a large number of chiefs, hospitalists, and hepatologists amongst those matched. Can't say for sure, but I can say that when I interviewed the majority of the candidates fit one of those descriptions.

It seems unlikely that it would be the vast majority. If every AMG that didn't match this time tried again after working as a hospitalist or Hepatology Fellow, that would only be around 50 applicants in future matches assuming a similar number of applicants per year (297 AMGs matched out of 350 applicants). Meaning if the trend has been roughly the same since the previous year, we can extrapolate that only 15 % (50 of 350) of AMG applicants at the 2014 match were either working as hospitalists or were Hepatology fellows, the other 300 were either PGY3 applicants or chief resident PGY4s. I can't separate out the chief resident data bc some programs require you to make the commitment for chief before you can apply for the match and some after. But even still, the number certainly couldn't be that great?

 

[Under-cover-gunner]

.

 

[nycscope]

It seems unlikely that it would be the vast majority. If every AMG that didn't match this time tried again after working as a hospitalist or Hepatology Fellow, that would only be around 50 applicants in future matches assuming a similar number of applicants per year (297 AMGs matched out of 350 applicants). Meaning if the trend has been roughly the same since the previous year, we can extrapolate that only 15 % (50 of 350) of AMG applicants at the 2014 match were either working as hospitalists or were Hepatology fellows, the other 300 were either PGY3 applicants or chief resident PGY4s. I can't separate out the chief resident data bc some programs require you to make the commitment for chief before you can apply for the match and some after. But even still, the number certainly couldn't be that great?

You forget those who didn't apply the year before, those who more recently decided they want to do GI, hospitalists and hepatologists who have been working for years in their fields and had planned on applying 3,4,5 years down the line, etc...

 

[Amazingmuzmo]

You forget those who didn't apply the year before, those who more recently decided they want to do GI, hospitalists and hepatologists who have been working for years in their fields and had planned on applying 3,4,5 years down the line, etc...

So what would you say the average chances are for AMG seniors? 50%?

 

[nycscope]

So what would you say the average chances are for AMG seniors? 50%?

I don't think you can say who is fifty fifty. You can make any statistic appear what you want it to so that it fits your argument. However, you can be an excellent candidate and, for a variety of reasons, fall down rank lists (i.e. you are a douchebag or want to do something your interview programs aren't interested in, etc). You can easily be an AMG with servicable board scores, the usual research (couple poster presentations, 1-2 pubs as the 2nd, 3rd, 4th author), very good LOR and still not get in anywhere.

ON AVERAGE maybe you can "predict" competitiveness, but I would balk giving a number to anyone