I can sit back and use my crystal ball as well as anyone.
I feel like the 2 tiered system we have in place will get more entrenched. People with bad insurance or gov insurance will get worse and worse care, get longer and longer waits. The race to the bottom as a provider here will push midlevels and primary care docs as the face of mental health practice, with psychiatrists acting as consultants on basic care, and primary providers for advanced mental health problems. I don't think we need to race to the bottom and try to push out the midlevels here as it is natural that the government will want cheap, unskilled labor to take on the majority of the burden -- that will keep psychiatrists available for the tougher cases, or working in more advanced hospital centers.
There is no reason for us to get involved with care that is delivered at the bottom of our license. Even in the uninsured/underinsured psychiatrists can already work at the top of their license by being employed in academic settings or tertiary care centers who help out the sickest patients. I don't think harvard is going to replace all doctors with nurses (bad example but go with it), as it would cheapen the reputation and would be unlikely to handle the cases that get referred there.
As for the 2nd tier (well-insured or cash pay), Psychiatrists have an edge in that we don't need to work with an employer. In the era of social media and mass marketing, psychiatrists have a definite edge in marketing and working for themselves, selecting who they want on their panel, and charging what they want. You don't have to be an entrepreneur to have a website that markets your skills for you. You take an elective in TMS or treatment resistant depression during residency, call yourself a "TMS expert" or "depression expert" on your website, and can see all the TMS/TRD cases you want. You can help people with the specific problem you want to see, and they'll come from far and wide to see you. You're the expert... right? They will get better and boom - now you feel good. Yay, mission accomplished. No NP can do that.
My question is, why is it a bad thing? Most hospitals are admitting anyone who says SI, putting them on a med to make them "better" and delivering this inferior care with an NP. Why do I care? That is not care I want to be delivering. It's akin to everyone calling themselves a "handyman" these days saying they can do carpentry. No they can't. Anyone who wants to have a custom set of wooden stairs made is going to hire an expert craftsman, an actual carpenter. Why would a carpenter want to come over and fix a broken toilet rim? Why as a psychiatrist do I want to see someone who feels "depressed" with "anxiety." You ask them all the questions and they are all essentially asymptomatic. Leave that to the NP who can prescribe xanax and adderall since they "can't focus" - what do I care? The actual sick people need my help, and their numbers are growing exponentially.
As more and more NP's attain full enlightenment (aka fully independent without supervision), they will get their assess sued for their terrible care. Plus, then I won't get forced to supervise them in my job when I graduate, and the company/hospital can't pretend it is needed for the NPs to practice. Let them deal with their own liability. I'd rather train doctors at becoming better doctors than train a supervised NP at becoming an inferior simulacrum of medicine.