Healthcare Bubble: It Will Burst

[Sneezing]

So let's discuss the healthcare bubble. Any special preparations for when it finally bursts? Medicare is taking its last breaths. We are in a recession and some how healthcare is still growing. It is growing because it is propped up by government intervention and subsidies. Just like the banks, housing loans, airlines, vehicle manufacturers, and eventually student loans/education.

Are you ready for the bubble?

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[MOHS_01]

So let's discuss the healthcare bubble. Any special preparations for when it finally bursts? Medicare is taking its last breaths. We are in a recession and some how healthcare is still growing. It is growing because it is propped up by government intervention and subsidies. Just like the banks, housing loans, airlines, vehicle manufacturers, and eventually student loans/education.

Are you ready for the bubble?

Healthcare is growing because of demographic pressures, a sicker populace, increased focus on interventions and diagnositics, and a poor populace. You may want to read up a little on what makes for a "bubble". Healthcare only superficially matches some of the attributes of a "bubble".

 

[Sneezing]

You are correct I don't know the tre definition of a bubble. However, my overall point doesn't change.

Healthcare demand increases because of demographic pressures, sicker populace, and poor populace. Healthcare utilizaltion increases because of increased focus on interventions, diagnostics and the SUBSIDY that is medicare and medicaid.

It is this unnatural infusion of funds into the system by the government that artificially has propped up healthcare utilziation and supported the increasing healthcare demand. This is what I take issue with and want to draw attention to. Without this government subsidy healthcare utilization would markedly decrease. Less utilization would mean less need for facilities and labor. This will have a ripple effect through all of the health industry. Physicians, nurses, administrators, bill collectors, drug reps, device reps, occupational therapists, optometrists, etc...

The healthcare demand would still be there, and perhaps even increase, but utilization would not. I consider this possible abrupt contracture of the healthcare economy to be equivalent to a bubble, even if it doesn't fit some definition I don't know.

Back to the original question: Are you ready for the "bubble?"

 

[thedrjojo]

You are correct I don't know the tre definition of a bubble. However, my overall point doesn't change.

Healthcare demand increases because of demographic pressures, sicker populace, and poor populace. Healthcare utilizaltion increases because of increased focus on interventions, diagnostics and the SUBSIDY that is medicare and medicaid.

It is this unnatural infusion of funds into the system by the government that artificially has propped up healthcare utilziation and supported the increasing healthcare demand. This is what I take issue with and want to draw attention to. Without this government subsidy healthcare utilization would markedly decrease. Less utilization would mean less need for facilities and labor. This will have a ripple effect through all of the health industry. Physicians, nurses, administrators, bill collectors, drug reps, device reps, occupational therapists, optometrists, etc...

The healthcare demand would still be there, and perhaps even increase, but utilization would not. I consider this possible abrupt contracture of the healthcare economy to be equivalent to a bubble, even if it doesn't fit some definition I don't know.

Back to the original question: Are you ready for the "bubble?"

Part of your assumption and claims is treating health care like any other service or good, which frankly it does not fit in. People don't get the Xray or CT scan or Colonoscopy because it is cheap/doesn't "cost" them anything, they do it because it is recommended. If anything, our health system has an UNDER utilization issue, in that not nearly a high enough percentage of individuals are compliant with testing and treatment recommendations (when is the last time any of us had our annual physical?) The areas that are over utilized and NEED a contracture are some that you listed, namely administrators, bill collectors, drug/device reps, the real costs in healthcare, while the providers (physicians, nurses) and developers (drug researchers, device developers) are in shortage and undercompensated comparatively. Imagine the ripple effect on the costs if drug manufacturers didn't advertise, spend millions giving free lunches and pushing products, if device developers didn't have to send a rep to every hospital to try to push their newest product... R&D is such a small proportion of the costs of these companies. And in hospitals across the country, patient care areas and offices for doctors are being converted into administrator offices so much so that over the past 30 years, while the growth of doctors has remained flatlined, adminstrators and billers, non medical personel has grown something like 1600%. That is where the bubble is, and when that bursts, health care will likely return to being about providing care to patients and not about providing wealth to a select few in our nation (16% of our economy!)