Here is a list of schools in Applicant Status:
http://www.osteopathic.org/inside-aoa/accreditation/predoctoral accreditation/Documents/new-and-developing-colleges-of-osteopathic-medicine-and-campuses.pdf
....
The incompetence of the AOA and COCA never seizes to amaze me. I also enjoy how each new DO school and site starts with an absurd amount of students. 162 opening class for LU? Really? And it has nothing to do with tuition dollars but for that PCP shortage?
EDIT: Just realized they also want to open more for profit schools, such as Larkin COM in Miami, FL even though South FL has 4 medical schools in the area already...ridiculous
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2013/04/23/larkin-hospital-closes-48-acre.html?page=all
Its crazy to think that a little over a decade ago, there were only 4 FL med schools. Now its more than twice that. They don't need any more.
To be realistic though, look at that list of applicant schools again. A couple haven't applied since 2008 (when the economy wasn't half bad), and 4 others haven't applied for a few years. My guess is any school that hasn't submitted an application in the last 2 years, is unlikely to get established any time soon. I mean honestly, MUCOM, ACOM, & CUSOM all submitted their apps in 2010 and were established by 2013, so any school taking much longer than that is just testing the waters. It takes virtually nothing to submit an app for starting a new DO school. Its literally something like $500 (maybe less) and a few pieces of paper.
That said, to get pre-accreditation status is a much harder thing. The fact that there are no schools in the pre-accreditation box means to me things are finally slowing down, something that hasn't happened in years now.
Also, I think COCA is at least moving in the right direction with its new OGME requirements for new and current schools, and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if that made schools that were looking to set up degree mills are taking a step back.
It's happening. Many programs will take a great DO over an average MD. I'm not saying the MD doesn't match anywhere but being an MD doesn't suddenly mean you have first dibs on ACGME res anymore.
As much as I'd like that to be the case (as a DO student), it isn't. Being an MD does mean you have first dibs on ACGME spots. I mean you even implied it in your post by saying "many programs will take a
great DO over an average MD" (which may or may not be true depending on the specialty). If MDs didn't have first dibs at ACGME spots, then a slightly above average DO would get picked over an average MD.
In any case, great DOs have more ACGME opportunity now than any time before, but I doubt we are anywhere close to US MDs not having first dibs on ACGME residencies.
DO schools are tuition driven (main source of revenue) and new schools unfortunately require these large class sizes to cover their expenses.
Almost all private schools (whether DO or MD) are tuition driven...
Personally I'm ok with the limited amount of residencies. The last thing we need is an over saturation of doctors killing our employment and salary prospects.
I mean call me crude but the idea of being stuck with a poor salary or being unemployed after dropping 240-280k( pending no debt from undergrad) is not sweet in any regard.
We're not close to having too many docs. Sure maybe in certain areas there is an over saturation, but across the country, we're not even close. Add on the millions that will have health insurance come January, and we'll be in a bit of a hole. So much so that other healthcare professionals (NPs and PAs) are trying to make hospitals believe they are the cheaper alternative to physicians in order to "fill the deficits".
Sure not everyone wants to live in the middle of nowhere, but many areas within 1-2 hrs of big cities are hurting for docs. There will always be demand for physicians in the foreseeable future, the issue now is about expanding smartly and incentivising primary care and shortage areas.