Over the past couple of weeks, the NIH gave MSTPs the good news that there would be no cuts in the funding cycle that begins in July. (Individual programs may have slots cut if their competing renewal received a low priority score, but there will be no across-the-board cuts.) However, the NIH also told us that NIGMS will expand individual NRSA funding in 2015, with the money coming from T32 institutional training grants. From the NIH's perspective, this will be a wash, as each T32 slot lost will theoretically be replaced by a F slot. But at the level of individual schools, the programs will have less NIH funding to support students in the MD phase of training. For example, a program that currently has 20 T32 slots may choose to support 5 students each in MD1, MD2, GR1, and MD3. If they are cut to 16 slots, they would have to either find money to make up the difference or cut back to 4 new students a year. The F30 will provide tuition & stipend for the MD years, but some NIH institutes are only allowing students in GR1 and GR2 years apply and are limiting awards to 3 years. A student that receives a F30 as a GR2 may use all 3 years of eligibility before they get back to med school, thus leaving the program with no NIH money to cover the final years of MD training. Furthermore, since the F30 is awarded to an individual and not a school, the MSTP has no idea whether its students will receive one.
It is difficult to say whether these changes will have a significant impact on the size of entering MSTP classes. In the past, programs have brushed aside cuts or threatened cuts and maintained and even increased class sizes. I have heard that one program is significantly increasing the size of its program in response to the currently funding climate, but this is probably an outlier. The financial landscape for academic medical centers is different now than it was a few years ago, and programs may approach the uncertainty with more caution.
It is difficult to say whether these changes will have a significant impact on the size of entering MSTP classes. In the past, programs have brushed aside cuts or threatened cuts and maintained and even increased class sizes. I have heard that one program is significantly increasing the size of its program in response to the currently funding climate, but this is probably an outlier. The financial landscape for academic medical centers is different now than it was a few years ago, and programs may approach the uncertainty with more caution.