MWU-AZ vs. Other School + AEGD vs. Other school and NO AEGD

[ToothJockey]

It can be good for the poor too, if they can get good grades and get into their state school. Lots of people get need based aid for both undergrad and dental school just based on being low income. However, it’s typically only the cheap state schools that offer this. So it really all comes down to going to the cheapest school you can.

On another note, there was an ADA report on graduating dental students, and it showed that majority of dental students have parental incomes over 150k, about 1/4 had incomes over 200k I think. This just shows that a lot of dental students come from affluent backgrounds, and I'm guessing as schools get more expensive, average parental income will also increase, since less and less "poor" people will apply, especially as state schools start costing 350-400k+ which is likely in the next 5 years if a 5% yearly tuition increase is assumed.

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[2TH MVR]

ya true, that's why most new grads are screwed, with an associate income it's hard to pay off debt, but with the debt they won't be able to buy a practice to increase income. double whammy

dentistry is great for the rich who won't have debt, terrible for the poor who will have tons of debt
rich get richer poor get poorer where have we seen that before

True dat. People with higher credit scores and better income get the best loan rates. But most of us had to start somewhere unless you were born with rich parents (not I). I still remember in undergrad .... I was using a high interest credit card in order to make cash advances so I could go buy beer. Pretty stupid. My point is. Alot of the "rich" however you define rich have paid their dues. Through years of hard work, proper financial decisions .... they've earned the better financial terms, low interest or no interest loans, etc. etc. So ... I don't hate on the rich who have worked hard for what they have. I admire them for what they have accomplished.

 

[Big Time Hoosier]

My point is. Alot of the "rich" however you define rich have paid their dues. Through years of hard work, proper financial decisions .... they've earned the better financial terms, low interest or no interest loans, etc. etc. So ... I don't hate on the rich who have worked hard for what they have. I admire them for what they have accomplished.

To back you up with some numbers, 88% of millionaires are self made.

https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/on-retirement/articles/7-myths-about-millionaires

Big Hoss

 

[ToothJockey]

True dat. People with higher credit scores and better income get the best loan rates. But most of us had to start somewhere unless you were born with rich parents (not I). I still remember in undergrad .... I was using a high interest credit card in order to make cash advances so I could go buy beer. Pretty stupid. My point is. Alot of the "rich" however you define rich have paid their dues. Through years of hard work, proper financial decisions .... they've earned the better financial terms, low interest or no interest loans, etc. etc. So ... I don't hate on the rich who have worked hard for what they have. I admire them for what they have accomplished.

Definitely not hating on the rich, I'm just pointing out that dentistry is a profession which will skew towards upper middle class families even more, the barrier for entry for "poor" people might be too high.

Remember, for a middle/upper middle class person, 400k in loans is high but not something crazy. Many of our parents have mortgages similar to that. But to a lower middle class or poor person, 400k seems like a mountain. They have come from families that have never dealt with that amount of money in their entire lives. Eventually, once loans reach 1 mil+, dentistry will be only for the rich. Not even an upper middle class person can afford that.

 

[Cold Front]

dentistry is great for the rich who won't have debt, terrible for the poor who will have tons of debt
rich get richer poor get poorer where have we seen that before

It’s part of the great income inequality. It’s happening on the streets and communities in the form of gentrification. It’s happening in education and healthcare industry, and it is the beauty of capitalism - the strongest (and the rich) always survive, while the weakest and the poor grow in numbers every year and are left behind. No matter if the argument is for or against capitalism - the results will always be the same.

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[ToothJockey]

It’s part of the great income inequality. It’s happening on the streets and communities in the form of gentrification. It’s happening in education and healthcare industry, and it is the beauty of capitalism - the strongest (and the rich) always survive, while the weakest and the poor grow in numbers every year and are left behind. No matter if the argument is for or against capitalism - the results will always be the same.

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Yup we see it in healthcare itself. As consolidation occurs, a larger percentage of profits will continue to go to these corporate groups, private equity groups, leaving smaller and smaller amounts of money for us. Dentist, physicians, we're all part of the working class. The true wealth is located up top. For every associate working for 120k, the corporate entity is making like 300k+ off that guy. The rich get richer...

That's why being self employed it great, the money you earn goes to yourself, not anybody else.

 

[deleted903013]

It’s part of the great income inequality. It’s happening on the streets and communities in the form of gentrification. It’s happening in education and healthcare industry, and it is the beauty of capitalism - the strongest (and the rich) always survive, while the weakest and the poor grow in numbers every year and are left behind. No matter if the argument is for or against capitalism - the results will always be the same.

If you want to see what the future of the US looks like, look no further than California. Similar to a third world country, there is a shrinking middle class with plethora of very poor and minority of super rich. If it were an independent country, it would be the 17th most unequal country in the world with a 20.6% poverty rate. If the rest of the US goes this way, our future looks bleak.

 

[Anondds87]

$350k debt is reasonable. $600k+ is when it starts to get complicated for an associate dentist with $150-200k a year income.



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I think this is the problem though - people look at 350k as reasonable to pay off - a lot of hard work but doable. I'd say overall it's a somewhat good option.

These are students who are getting top marks and can do anything they want at university. I think they should be going for the best option they can possibly achieve. Dentistry at 350k isnt in that boat.

People with top grades should look at dentistry for like 200k or a totally different route. They have every option available to them and they dont owe anything to becoming a dentist, they should pick the best option available to them

 

[Big Time Hoosier]

A few of us on SDN have been venting for years about the rising cost of attendance. Now that the conversation has become so mainstream, I am so happy I could cry.

Big Hoss

 

[Cold Front]

I think this is the problem though - people look at 350k as reasonable to pay off - a lot of hard work but doable. I'd say overall it's a somewhat good option.

These are students who are getting top marks and can do anything they want at university. I think they should be going for the best option they can possibly achieve. Dentistry at 350k isnt in that boat.

People with top grades should look at dentistry for like 200k or a totally different route. They have every option available to them and they dont owe anything to becoming a dentist, they should pick the best option available to them

Yes. Anything above $350k loans will mean steep payments. The higher the repayment, the higher taxes paid to satisfy that payment.

YES, HIGH DEBT MEANS MORE TAXES PAID.

Most grads don’t understand the concept of compounding interest and taxes. For instance, someone making $2k monthly repayments is paying half the taxes than someone in a $4k repayment - because the repayments are not tax deductible and must be paid as a post-tax proceeds to the loan services, even if you own a practice or a 1099 contractor. So essentially, all future grads will not only be in a deeper hole by debt, but they will also be in a much higher tax burden to survive or get themselves out of that debt. This was all by design by the government, who gives out the blank checks - because they know the taxes will be higher to satisfy the high debt, by denying those students the benefits of student loan payment deductions against their income taxes - to pay back or off the debt. Even with loan forgiveness programs, students will still be on the hook for taxes on the forgiven amount.

In contrast, the government helps people buy their first homes with FHA loans - but the interest on the mortgage is deductible against taxes - and if you default on the mortgage, you can walk away from that problem. High student loans is the ultimate “add insult to injury” problem - people can’t walk away and must pay interest and taxes.


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[Cold Front]

A few of us on SDN have been venting for years about the rising cost of attendance. Now that the conversation has become so mainstream, I am so happy I could cry.

View attachment 290891

Big Hoss

I think I was there with you on that from the beginning... half of my posts in recent years are about that topic.


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[deleted903013]

A few of us on SDN have been venting for years about the rising cost of attendance. Now that the conversation has become so mainstream, I am so happy I could cry.

I think I was there with you on that from the beginning... half of my posts in recent years are about that topic.

I remember back when I'd just graduated I'd seen your guys' posts here. That with a mixture of working full time woke me up to how bad debt is. Your average pre dent who's never held a full time job simply isn't equipped to make a half a million dollar decision. I'm glad you guys blazed the trail to make anti debt discussions common here.

 

[Cold Front]

I remember back when I'd just graduated I'd seen your guys' posts here. That with a mixture of working full time woke me up to how bad debt is. Your average pre dent who's never held a full time job simply isn't equipped to make a half a million dollar decision. I'm glad you guys blazed the trail to make anti debt discussions common here.

I have used USC as a poster child for the high cost of schools crisis since 2013. I started a topic every year to follow their tuition and fees increases - which began at $123k first year cost of attendance in 2013/14, and currently at $149k first year for 2019/20. Ofcourse, Midwestern and couple of other schools cost more now, but I have predicted 6-7 years ago that we will see the first year COA to hit above $150k for those schools.

My next prediction is the $200k first yr COA threshold - which I think will happen even sooner, probably in 4-5 years, for those top tier cost schools. All these numbers are not factoring in the “daily compounded interest”.


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[deleted903013]

My next prediction is the $200k first yr COA threshold

You have to wonder how the deans of these schools even sleep at night. What these schools charge is completely immoral, almost criminal. This education bubble is getting insanely large and it will burst as all bubbles do.

 

[Cold Front]

You have to wonder how the deans of these schools even sleep at night. What these schools charge is completely immoral, almost criminal. This education bubble is getting insanely large and it will burst as all bubbles do.

I think that’s actually most deans’ goal, to balance their books and offset pay increases for the faculty and additional upgrades schools need to woo future applicants and students to their programs. It’s almost like the auto and computer manufacturers business models; tweak couple of things here and there - but the overall product is still the same under the hood, but it will cost more than previous year.


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[ToothJockey]

Whats the bottom line? Hows dentistry gonna be different for those of us with little to no debt and future grads with 600k+ debt?

@Cold Front You’re pretty good at predicting the future, I wanna hear what you think. Will most dentists flock to corporate? Will it make ownership easier, because we can hire our debt ridden colleagues?

Also, do you think there will be another mass extinction of dental schools like there was in the 1980’s?


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[Cold Front]

Whats the bottom line? Hows dentistry gonna be different for those of us with little to no debt and future grads with 600k+ debt?

@Cold Front You’re pretty good at predicting the future, I wanna hear what you think. Will most dentists flock to corporate? Will it make ownership easier, because we can hire our debt ridden colleagues?

Also, do you think there will be another mass extinction of dental schools like there was in the 1980’s?


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Nothing is predictable with a certainty, but we older dentists have seen how the cost of dental education have changed over the years at the expense of minions (pre-dents/students). We don’t see any incentives for schools to slow down their tuition and fee increases anytime soon.

This whole trend started with a handful of cartel style schools on the east coast (BU, NYU, UPenn, Harvard, Columbia, etc) that were/still are historically brand name schools. They all have a highly reputable medical schools and campuses that their dental schools have access to. So I guess the high tuition ($200-250k) was justifiable for those programs about 10-15 years ago - plus they were all in big cities, and that was a selling point too.

Then came along the new generation of dental schools, Midwestern et al, who simply saw the supply and demand of dental education, particularly dental applicants having a higher GPA than their medical school counter parts at some programs. They knew there was a market that was big enough to tap into for those 12-13,000 people applying to DS every year. The odds of getting into dental school use to be 1:3 10-15 years ago, now it’s closer to 1:2. So as the saying goes, “if you build it, they will come” - and that’s what they did and it created an inflection point for DS tuition and fees. It was almost the gentrification of dentistry, even the cheap and state schools started to become expensive. The deans become more bottom line thinkers - and partly because of the image of dentistry in the minds of the public has evolved to more of a status symbol. A more self conscious society now have dentistry higher up on their needs list.

So the culmination of those factors motivated dental schools to cease the moment - the blank checks from the government cemented the idea of higher tuition and fees even further.

Today, we are in the middle of this exponential cost of education growth that reached very deep into an experimental and an exploitation level, and the only people who are discussing this crisis are older dentists who know exactly what it takes to be a dentist in the real world, financially. If every pre-dent knew how hard dentistry is becoming with dental insurances and corporate dentistry - I doubt any of them would pay $300k to a dental school. But since society still has this beautiful picture of dentists, it plays very well into the hands of the schools and to keep their conveyor belts going for many years to come.

I still think we are a decade (at the minimum) away before we see a drop in DS application - and by then, the average new grad debt would probably have reached $700-900k in student loans, while their income would lag/not go up as much to support that level of debt.


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[ToothJockey]

I still think we are a decade (at the minimum) away before we see a drop in DS application - and by then, the average new grad debt would probably have reached $700-900k in student loans, while their income would lag/not go up as much to support that level of debt.

This is very concerning honestly. Dental expenditures for the past decade have stagnated, that's why incomes have also stagnated. For many new grads who take on these 900k loans, they might be thinking income will rise according to tuition but they're very wrong. Dental expenditues rose at a high rate in the 90's and early 2000's, those were the true golden years of dentistry, income pretty much doubled during that period, faster than the rate of inflation.

Unless there are some reforms which increase dental care spending in the US, future grads are in for a very rude awakening. Saturation doesn't help, at the risk of offending some current students, I hope some of these expensive private schools close down. Right now supply is more than demand.

I'm pretty uninformed on the topic, do you know what causes schools to close down? Is it a decrease in attendance?

 

[Cold Front]

I'm pretty uninformed on the topic, do you know what causes schools to close down? Is it a decrease in attendance?

Demand.

According to the ADA, when I graduated from DS in 2010, there were 12,210 applicants - a record year.

Applicant numbers have declined since. Today, 9 years later, there were 11,298 applicants for 2018/2019 - about 900 less applicants compared to 2010, or an 8% drop. The ratio of applicants to first year enrollment have also dropped from 2.5 to 1.8 over that same period. To me, this is demand fading, but not to a level for schools to close. If the ratio drops close to 1.0 - that’s when schools will struggle to fill their seats.

Meanwhile, first year enrollment on it’s own went the opposite direction - we now have about 1,200 more first year students in DS than 9 years ago - more than twice of the growth rate of the US population for the same period. Plus there are 2-3 more new schools in the pipeline that will open next few years, that will probably add 200-300 more people to the first year enrollment numbers, leading to more new grads with big debt in the workforce. This extra supply of dentists benefits corporations.

Schools are very well aware of this downward trajectory of applicants. Every school has a break even point, some may be able to keep their doors open with half their classes enrolled. It will be interesting to see how all this effects the tuition and fees increases for the coming cycles.

The bottom line: less people are applying, more schools are opening and more people are getting in.

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[ToothJockey]

Demand.

According to the ADA, when I graduated from DS in 2010, there were 12,210 applicants - a record year.

Applicant numbers have declined since. Today, 9 years later, there were 11,298 applicants for 2018/2019 - about 900 less applicants compared to 2010, or an 8% drop. The ratio of applicants to first year enrollment have also dropped from 2.5 to 1.8 over that same period. To me, this is demand fading, but not to a level for schools to close. If the ratio drops close to 1.0 - that’s when schools will struggle to fill their seats.

Meanwhile, first year enrollment on it’s own went the opposite direction - we now have about 1,200 more first year students in DS than 9 years ago - more than twice of the growth rate of the US population for the same period. Plus there are 2-3 more new schools in the pipeline that will open next few years, that will probably add 200-300 more people to the first year enrollment numbers, leading to more new grads with big debt in the workforce. This extra supply of dentists benefits corporations.

Schools are very well aware of this downward trajectory of applicants. Every school has a break even point, some may be able to keep their doors open with half their classes enrolled. It will be interesting to see how all this effects the tuition and fees increases for the coming cycles.

The bottom line: less people are applying, more schools are opening and more people are getting in.

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I read up on the topic a bit, and I agree. It could be similar to 1980's in dentistry. The market will more or less correct itself. Students will see that dentistry isn't all that, especially with the obscene tuition costs, and as you said number of applicants will decline, leading to closure of schools, probably expensive ones like USC, Midwestern who won't be able to fill their seats.

The Legal Whiteboard

Information about the Law Professor Blogs Network.

lawprofessors.typepad.com

I think a similar thing is happening in Law, a ton of law schools are reducing class sizes because of a reduction in applicants. I think similar things are starting to happen in pharmacy as well, a decrease in applicants. And likewise in dentistry.

Do you think schools will try to reduce tuition to attract more dental students to keep the seats full?

 

[Blueshirts]

I’m curious on why specific schools that failed, did fail, in getting students to fill their seats. Based on a google search, the schools that closed were all private schools, so I’m wondering if students simply avoided attending those schools because of tuition reasons. None of the 6 listed schools by today’s standards are particularly flashy overall, like an NYU or USC, so maybe they had difficulty drawing students there because of their high status allure?

1 thing that I think should be added to this conversation we are having here, is that there are schools that are admitting international students; i think that in the near future, there is a possibility that some of these incredibly expensive private schools can be floated in the interim by that particular applicant pool, since there are always students looking to come to the US for a far better opportunity overall, but regardless, that section of the application pool probably isn’t big enough to sustain dropping revenues.

Another thing to note, is that dental schools have more than 1 revenue stream. Aside from the tuition from students, there are also revenues generated from the school’s clinics. I would be interested to know what type of procedure pool students had 10-20-30 years ago. Today, lots of schools are doing complex, and costly procedures, with the assistance/by specialists in the clinic. It could be possible that in comparison to the 1980’s when those 6 schools did close, that the breakdown by percent of revenues from tuition:clinic fees has changed; if schools were smart and realized that relying on clinic revenues is a better strategy, then having some empty seats in a class would be more palatable.

 

[Cold Front]

Do you think schools will try to reduce tuition to attract more dental students to keep the seats full?

If enrollment drops, schools will freeze their tuition first before they drop them. Schools also need students more for their clinic revenues than the academic portion of the training - free labor per se. So if tuition drops, enrollment could still be high in the future, and would make the dentist saturation problem even worse.


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[Cold Front]

I’m curious on why specific schools that failed, did fail, in getting students to fill their seats. Based on a google search, the schools that closed were all private schools, so I’m wondering if students simply avoided attending those schools because of tuition reasons.

The reasons sighted were:

1. Financial issues were repeatedly described as critical. Dental education was cited as an expensive enterprise that is or may become a drain on university resources. On average, current-year expenditures for the average dental school are about $1 million more than current revenues.

2. The declining size and quality of the applicant pool during the 1980s played a role in some closures by threatening the tuition base and prestige on which private schools rely.

3. Faculty and alumni resistance to change may feed impatience among university administrators. In some institutions, the comparative isolation of dental schools within the university has provided them with few allies or at least informed colleagues and has left them ill-prepared to counter proposals for "downsizing."



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[ToothJockey]

Is there any entitiy that regulates amount of dental graduates? There is a surplus of dentists right now, and it will continue to get worse.

https://www.ada.org/~/media/ADA/Science%20and%20Research/HPI/Files/HPIBrief_0718_1.pdf?la=en

How Many Dentists Are Needed in 2040: Executive Summary

Five background articles in Section 2 of the “Advancing Dental Education in the 21st Century” project examined some of the factors likely to impact the number of dentists needed in 2040: 1) the oral health of the population, 2) changes in the utilization of dental services, 3) new technologies...

www.jdentaled.org

Can the ADA call for dental schools to reduce class sizes? How does it all work?

 

[schmoob]

If enrollment drops, schools will freeze their tuition first before they drop them. Schools also need students more for their clinic revenues than the academic portion of the training - free labor per se. So if tuition drops, enrollment could still be high in the future, and would make the dentist saturation problem even worse.


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School clinics generally don’t turn a profit. When it takes 10 visits to complete an arch of removable with Medicaid reimbursement it’s hard to break even with cost of clinic operations.

 

[Cold Front]

School clinics generally don’t turn a profit. When it takes 10 visits to complete an arch of removable with Medicaid reimbursement it’s hard to break even with cost of clinic operations.

For small programs, maybe. But the big programs like BU, Tufts, NYU, and the likes have 250-300 students between 3rd and 4th clinic years, plus another 200 international dentists also using the same clinics... and that’s just the pre-doc. Additional 200 or so students are post-doc residents - in ortho, Endo, perio, OS, Pedo, AEGD also bringing in more revenue - these departments typically do not accept Medicaid. A good junk of patients still pay out of pocket, at least where I went to school.


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[P7898]

True, but it’s sacrifices you gotta make to be successful in dentistry nowadays.

If you aren’t willing to do that, you might get stuck in the associate or corporate trap for the rest of your career.

Pre-dents see their mentor dentists, making big bucks with large practices and all, they think it will be them right out of school. But the reality is even those dentists had to grind to get where they are now. We will have to grind and make sacrifices to be successful also.


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Preach man. Soo many pre-dents look at their dentist and say "oh the loans are worth it" OR "my dentist paid for dental school and he turned out alright". Shaking my head over here lol

 

[P7898]

I have used USC as a poster child for the high cost of schools crisis since 2013. I started a topic every year to follow their tuition and fees increases - which began at $123k first year cost of attendance in 2013/14, and currently at $149k first year for 2019/20. Ofcourse, Midwestern and couple of other schools cost more now, but I have predicted 6-7 years ago that we will see the first year COA to hit above $150k for those schools.

My next prediction is the $200k first yr COA threshold - which I think will happen even sooner, probably in 4-5 years, for those top tier cost schools. All these numbers are not factoring in the “daily compounded interest”.


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I am going to barf.

 

[P7898]

Is there any entitiy that regulates amount of dental graduates? There is a surplus of dentists right now, and it will continue to get worse.

https://www.ada.org/~/media/ADA/Science%20and%20Research/HPI/Files/HPIBrief_0718_1.pdf?la=en

How Many Dentists Are Needed in 2040: Executive Summary

Five background articles in Section 2 of the “Advancing Dental Education in the 21st Century” project examined some of the factors likely to impact the number of dentists needed in 2040: 1) the oral health of the population, 2) changes in the utilization of dental services, 3) new technologies...

www.jdentaled.org

Can the ADA call for dental schools to reduce class sizes? How does it all work?

I would also like to know this. It seems like the ADA could say a word about the surplus.

 

[ToothJockey]

I would also like to know this. It seems like the ADA could say a word about the surplus.

Yeah what I'm wondering is, does the ADA control the amount of dentists pumped out each year, or is it the government? Who allows all these schools to open? And can the ADA or the government force class sizes to decrease, or force the closing of dental schools?

The funny thing is, the researchers working for ADA themselves know that the dentist shortage is a myth, but the ADA isn't doing anything about the excessive number of dentists being pumped out. You would think they would try to learn from Pharmacy's mistakes....

 

[P7898]

Yeah what I'm wondering is, does the ADA control the amount of dentists pumped out each year, or is it the government? Who allows all these schools to open? And can the ADA or the government force class sizes to decrease, or force the closing of dental schools?

The funny thing is, the researchers working for ADA themselves know that the dentist shortage is a myth, but the ADA isn't doing anything about the excessive number of dentists being pumped out. You would think they would try to learn from Pharmacy's mistakes....

one could only hope.......does anyone know on here how the ADA plays a role in controlling the number of dentists and schools?

 

[Cold Front]

one could only hope.......does anyone know on here how the ADA plays a role in controlling the number of dentists and schools?

CODA is in charge of accrediting schools; there are currently 67 pre-doc schools and 771 post-doc programs - and counting.

If you are a program that needs to be accredited, you would need to meet the CODA accreditation standards. Once you meet the standards; which includes site visits to review everything a program is required to have, its upto the school and CODA to decide how many students can be enrolled into the program. The bigger the school (facility and staff), the bigger the class. Programs like Tufts and NYU each have ~300+ first year students, they probably meet the standards to have that many first year students.

CODA is not a gatekeeper for the supply of dentists. It just says yes or no to programs based on specific standards. That’s why new schools are opening every couple of years or so. Plus it’s very expensive to put a program together. Any future DS will enter a field with fewer applicants available to choose from, so it’s getting more risky (financially) to open a school without a financial support - usually the state the school is in (like the new program at U of Texas El Paso).


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[P7898]

CODA is in charge of accrediting schools; there are currently 67 pre-doc schools and 771 post-doc programs - and counting.

If you are a program that needs to be accredited, you would need to meet the CODA accreditation standards. Once you meet the standards; which includes site visits to review everything a program is required to have, its upto the school and CODA to decide how many students can be enrolled into the program. The bigger the school (facility and staff), the bigger the class. Programs like Tufts and NYU each have ~300+ first year students, they probably meet the standards to have that many first year students.

CODA is not a gatekeeper for the supply of dentists. It just says yes or no to programs based on specific standards. That’s why new schools are opening every couple of years or so. Plus it’s very expensive to put a program together. Any future DS will enter a field with fewer applicants available to choose from, so it’s getting more risky (financially) to open a school without a financial support - usually the state the school is in (like the new program at U of Texas El Paso).


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Those are all good points. But then again, is financial risk the only thing that’s preventing new schools from opening?

 

[ToothJockey]

Yeah I'm curious, is there any force that can stop random dental schools from popping up out of nowhere, or does it all tie in with market forces such as decline in applicant #'s?

What if demand for dental care goes to an all time low, yet schools keep pumping out dentists like candy, and applicants keep applying? Can no one step in and tell dental schools to reduce class sizes, or close down to reduce supply of dentists to match the demand. We don't wanna end up like Law or Pharmacy, why can't we learn from their mistakes?

 

[Cold Front]

Those are all good points. But then again, is financial risk the only thing that’s preventing new schools from opening?

Yes. Most new schools are private for-profit programs. If they feel they can turn profit, they will open a DS. It’s down to the economics, they could care less how dentists feel about it.


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[Cold Front]

Yeah I'm curious, is there any force that can stop random dental schools from popping up out of nowhere, or does it all tie in with market forces such as decline in applicant #'s?

What if demand for dental care goes to an all time low, yet schools keep pumping out dentists like candy, and applicants keep applying? Can no one step in and tell dental schools to reduce class sizes, or close down to reduce supply of dentists to match the demand. We don't wanna end up like Law or Pharmacy, why can't we learn from their mistakes?

The education system (and schools) in this country follow the free market enterprise model. The government or any of it’s agencies cannot interfere or manage competition of institutions. It’s designed to be a self-correcting problem.

Many people don’t know this, but a lot of undergrad private colleges are closing around the country because of high school grad numbers are declining. As I said in a previous post, dental school applicant numbers are down almost 10% from a decade ago and will continue to go down - due to high cost of DS and the economic landscape changing for the worse in dentistry - as a profession.

High school graduates to drop in number and be increasingly diverse

High school graduates are projected to come from increasingly diverse backgrounds, even as overall levels plateau -- posing a challenge for colleges and universities.

www.insidehighered.com

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[ToothJockey]

So what we should be doing is making pre-dents aware that applying and going 600k in debt to some of these schools is a bad idea. Maybe if applicant numbers dwindle some of these expensive privates will close down.

NYU Dental School Cost: Over $700,000 for Class of 2024

NYU dental school cost is expected to be over $700,000 for the class of 2024. The trust cost of NYU dental is much higher than reported.

www.studentloanplanner.com

Can you imagine if NYU closed it's doors for good? That's 300 students a year. The school is already absurdly expensive. This one school could probably solve a chunk of the dentistry saturation problem itself.

Make dentistry great again!

 

[Blueshirts]

So what we should be doing is making pre-dents aware that applying and going 600k in debt to some of these schools is a bad idea. Maybe if applicant numbers dwindle some of these expensive privates will close down.

NYU Dental School Cost: Over $700,000 for Class of 2024

NYU dental school cost is expected to be over $700,000 for the class of 2024. The trust cost of NYU dental is much higher than reported.

www.studentloanplanner.com

Can you imagine if NYU closed it's doors for good? That's 300 students a year. The school is already absurdly expensive. This one school could probably solve a chunk of the dentistry saturation problem itself.

Make dentistry great again!

NYU won't close because lots of people commute from home to attend there; maybe the out of state attendees would drop over time, but there are more than enough pre-dents in the metro area that can attend and also have reduced/no living costs because of spouse/family support.

 

[ToothJockey]

NYU won't close because lots of people commute from home to attend there; maybe the out of state attendees would drop over time, but there are more than enough pre-dents in the metro area that can attend and also have reduced/no living costs because of spouse/family support.

True, but eventually tuition itself will be so high, that the other expenses don't matter. It will be too expensive for even the in-staters. I know New Yorkers are rich, but they (hopefully) have a limit too. But then again, it's NYU, it's a high profile school. They will probably find some way to get funding to stay afloat. Same with USC I guess

 

[2TH MVR]

It's been posted many times. The trend of high DS tuition is on the rise. Not sure what anyone can do about it. These schools will continue to exist as long as there are applicants with the $$$$ to attend there or those who can;t go anywere else. There will come a point when attending an uber expensive DS will not be a viable career choice. That time may have already arrived. Sure .... there will be those outlier stories of new dentists working in Alaska and paying off their debt in a few years lol. But come on man. Is EVERYONE with high DS debt going to be able to do whatever these outliers are doing?

You go to DS because you want to be a dentist. You pay alot of money and spend alot of irreplaceable time to become a dentist. After graduation .... it shouldn't require a miracle or to be an outlier to live an above average financially comfortable life working as a dentist.

Another reference. I practiced during a GREAT time (pre-2008) for dentists. I knew alot of general dentists (i.e begging for referrals). A few of them did great financially. Most led adequate lives. Nothing mind blowing, but comfortable, average lives. Again .... average dentists probably leased a 3 or 5 series BMW, lived in a nice home, and goes on nice vacations. Financially comfortable, but nothing mindblowing from a financial point of view. THESE DENTISTS HAD LOW DS TUITION AND PRACTICED DURING A TIME WITH VERY FEW CORPS AND LITTLE SATURATION. And they lived "average" financial lives. How does this compare to the new dentists graduating with high DS debt and saturation?

Predents. Be smart. If you cannot attend a DS with reasonable debt .... then dentistry is not for you. That's the reality of these times. If you choose to push through regardless ..... well ..... unless you're one of those unicorn outliers .... you will be living a life of debt servitude. Do the math. The math has already been posted here many times.

 

[Cold Front]

It's been posted many times. The trend of high DS tuition is on the rise. Not sure what anyone can do about it. These schools will continue to exist as long as there are applicants with the $$$$ to attend there or those who can;t go anywere else. There will come a point when attending an uber expensive DS will not be a viable career choice. That time may have already arrived. Sure .... there will be those outlier stories of new dentists working in Alaska and paying off their debt in a few years lol. But come on man. Is EVERYONE with high DS debt going to be able to do whatever these outliers are doing?

You go to DS because you want to be a dentist. You pay alot of money and spend alot of irreplaceable time to become a dentist. After graduation .... it shouldn't require a miracle or to be an outlier to live an above average financially comfortable life working as a dentist.

Another reference. I practiced during a GREAT time (pre-2008) for dentists. I knew alot of general dentists (i.e begging for referrals). A few of them did great financially. Most led adequate lives. Nothing mind blowing, but comfortable, average lives. Again .... average dentists probably leased a 3 or 5 series BMW, lived in a nice home, and goes on nice vacations. Financially comfortable, but nothing mindblowing from a financial point of view. THESE DENTISTS HAD LOW DS TUITION AND PRACTICED DURING A TIME WITH VERY FEW CORPS AND LITTLE SATURATION. And they lived "average" financial lives. How does this compare to the new dentists graduating with high DS debt and saturation?

Predents. Be smart. If you cannot attend a DS with reasonable debt .... then dentistry is not for you. That's the reality of these times. If you choose to push through regardless ..... well ..... unless you're one of those unicorn outliers .... you will be living a life of debt servitude. Do the math. The math has already been posted here many times.

When all dentists on these forums almost unanimously agree on the student loans crisis and give advise like you did - it’s on the pre-dents if they choose to carry on, ignore or look the other way on that advise and become “broke” dentists (if they get themselves into an unreasonably high debt-to-income ratio endgame with their student loans).


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[deleted903013]

When all dentists on these forums almost unanimously agree on the student loans crisis and give advise like you did - it’s on the pre-dents if they choose to carry on, ignore or look the other way on that advise and become “broke” dentists (if they get themselves into an unreasonably high debt-to-income ratio endgame with their student loans).

Most dentists pre dents talk to went to school when the costs were a fraction of what they are now. When I talk to current dentists, they have no clue what the costs are. You have to wonder how many pre dents take the time to adequately read threads on here about debt and take it to heart. Hopefully as more indebted students graduate, they'll help ward off pre dents from attending schools like USC and NYU.

 

[ToothJockey]

Most dentists pre dents talk to went to school when the costs were a fraction of what they are now. When I talk to current dentists, they have no clue what the costs are. You have to wonder how many pre dents take the time to adequately read threads on here about debt and take it to heart. Hopefully as more indebted students graduate, they'll help ward off pre dents from attending schools like USC and NYU.

Yeah unfortunately the grads working as associates for 120k a year, paying 50k a year post-tax towards student loans are not gonna show up on these threads. They're too busy living paycheck to paycheck. On these threads you'll have successful dentists showing up.

Pre-dents need more exposure to unsuccessful dentists, Cold Front and his 7 figure portfolio aren't going to be realistic for grads of USC or NYU. Those grads are more likely to have a -7 figure net worth

 

[P7898]

Most dentists pre dents talk to went to school when the costs were a fraction of what they are now. When I talk to current dentists, they have no clue what the costs are. You have to wonder how many pre dents take the time to adequately read threads on here about debt and take it to heart. Hopefully as more indebted students graduate, they'll help ward off pre dents from attending schools like USC and NYU.

I shadowed 13 dentists. All of them doing well ($250-$300k) income well. But they all say that in general if you have to go over $200k it’s not worth it. But a lot of these guys paid $80-$100k for dental school. My rule of thumb is try to make your debt a 1 year salary.

 

[ToothJockey]

My rule of thumb is try to make your debt a 1 year salary.

And to add onto that, go with the national average 150k-200k. No, Dr. BillyBob DD$, you're not going to be the next TanMan cranking out 3 million a year, you're probably gonna be within 1 standard deviation of the average.

 

[P7898]

And to add onto that, go with the national average 150k-200k. No, Dr. BillyBob DD$, you're not going to be the next TanMan cranking out 3 million a year, you're probably gonna be within 1 standard deviation of the average.

I just go off the averages. IF you become above it then great. If you are average then it was a good investment. $150k-$200k debt is a good investment for $150k-$200 salary. Triple or double the number with compounding interest doesn’t make sense. Go into finance and Wall Street if you want money. Dentistry will give you a good above average comfortable life as long as debt isn’t killing you. Don’t go into dentistry for money. There are easier less risky ways to make money these days.

 

[deleted903013]

$150k-$200k debt is a good investment for $150k-$200 salary. Triple or double the number with compounding interest doesn’t make sense.

Unfortunately, I don't think there's a single state school today that runs under 200k post interest (maybe Texas). Most state schools are flirting with 300k or soon will be and some are already more than 300k. Sadly, leaving dental school with a reasonable debt load will be a privilege of students with rich parents.

 

[P7898]

Unfortunately, I don't think there's a single state school today that runs under 200k post interest (maybe Texas). Most state schools are flirting with 300k or soon will be and some are already more than 300k. Sadly, leaving dental school with a reasonable debt load will be a privilege of students with rich parents.

Save money and work. Get good grades and scholarships. Apply to the military. Get NHSC. Do loan forgiveness at some corporate chains. Do the NHSC payback loan, Indian health reservation loan payback....

That is a defeatist comment. Unfortunately this and that. I just gave people 7 ways to decrease their loan amount. Sure it might not get rid of the whole thing but don't let that discourage you..... a fraction helps a long way.

Remember loans are on a compounding interest amount. If you start at $100k for the first year @ 6.5% it will turn into $106k - now that will be 6.5% at $206k for the second year.....(remember to add $100k of tuition for the second year_ (for all the viewers that don't understand compounding interest). then after the second year you will have $219k. Then the third year you will have a 6.5% interest rate on $319k you will have $339k balance. Then going into the last year you will have $439k @6.5% = $467k grand total.

Of course this isn't really what it is...it would be more just because the interest rate is off of federal loans amount of 6.65% (made is 6.5% for simplicity). The maximum amount of federal loans you can take is $224k @ 6.5% interest. I call this the money loan. If you have to use grad plus this could be in range of (7-12% interest rate). So really in the end, after the third and forth years..... lets factor in 8.5% interest rate instead of 6.5%.
Third: $319k @8.5% = $346k
Fourth: $446k @ 8.5% = $476k at the end (this will be more because I rounded down)....

Of course this is if your school charges at least $70k tuition and fees. I added in $30k a year for living, insurances, personal items, etc. So $100k overall per a year will get you closer to $500k all said and done..... Then if you do an AEGD you WILL be at $500k. I know this is not completely accurate because it would be slightly more than I calculated but this is something for pre-dents to look at when deciding on a school. Your state School would run you half of this.

Someone else want to post the payments for $500k loans? So really $70k a year tuition is really $500k....

 

[wengerout]

I loved MWU on my interview but no it's not worth what they are trying to charge.

 

[Cold Front]

I loved MWU on my interview but no it's not worth what they are trying to charge.

Did they tell you how much it will cost next year if you get in and accept?


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