New competitive score for MCAT 2015?

[Perseverance13]

So I was doing some research and apparently, according to Stony Brook/Columbia, the new competitive score for the 2015 MCAT will be 515. Is it me or this seems a little higher than the standards for the current MCAT? I mean, it's out of 528 so that's around a 11-12 on each section.

http://gs.columbia.edu/postbac/stony-brook

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[ohkos1]

How did you do your calculation? I did a quick/rough calculation to convert 515 to the current MCAT. It's exactly 10.75/section which is similar to the competitive scores of the current MCAT. If the the average matriculation right now is 32/33, then the scores they posted translates to 32.25.

 

[Perseverance13]

Well, it is 10.75 but I just added 1 to get a concrete score. So it should be 10-12. But don't you think that's a little high, especially for the new MCAT which is supposed to be much more difficult due to a number of factors? I mean, yeah, we won't know until scores are released, but if 515 is anywhere close to decent, that can be troubling for a lot of people, especially since it's a new exam.

 

[Perseverance13]

To get into a top-tier might mean getting a 520-522 on the new exam which is around a 12 out of 14 on each section. Pretty rough if you ask me.

 

[ohkos1]

Well, it is 10.75 but I just added 1 to get a concrete score. So it should be 10-12. But don't you think that's a little high, especially for the new MCAT which is supposed to be much more difficult due to a number of factors? I mean, yeah, we won't know until scores are released, but if 515 is anywhere close to decent, that can be troubling for a lot of people, especially since it's a new exam.

No one knows what the difficulty of the new test is going to be. Everything you hear about the 2015 exam is heresay. The only absolute is the length of the exam. If you have weaker stamina, yes the test will be harder. However, I think the percentiles will be set up similar in that a 10.75 on the current exam will translate roughly to a ~128/129.

 

[texan2414]

515 is roughly somewhere between 32-33 on current scale.

 

[Perseverance13]

Going by AAMC's hypothetical percentiles for the MCAT 2015, 515 will fall in the 94 percentile. So maybe, Stony's anticipation was a stretch? I think a good score is somewhere in the 70 percentile which should be a 505. However, this is only HYPOTHETICAL as AAMC claims. Still exciting to see how the scoring will be done when the actual exam is administered.

https://www.aamc.org/students/download/378098/data/mcat2015scorescaleguide.pdf

 

[texan2414]

Going by AAMC's hypothetical percentiles for the MCAT 2015, 515 will fall in the 94 percentile. So maybe, Stony's anticipation was a stretch? I think a good score is somewhere in the 70 percentile which should be a 505. However, this is only HYPOTHETICAL as AAMC claims. Still exciting to see how the scoring will be done when the actual exam is administered.

https://www.aamc.org/students/download/378098/data/mcat2015scorescaleguide.pdf

If you look at the median national MCAT for matriculants, it consistently ranges from 32-33 (which is 87th - 90th percentile). So Stony Brook's anticipated score is not all too "stretchy" as you assert.
I do think that 2015 testing year will be a bit unusual because standardization will probably give a wide latitude of interpretation for scores, as it will be a brand new scoring scale. In my opinion, adcoms will most likely use percentiles to gauge competitiveness if anything.

 

[pithy84]

Notice that most of the med schools listed on that website (the Columbia Postbac Linkage website) say expected scores from the MCAT 2015 are "not yet available".

In my opinion, med schools have no idea what they are talking about, and neither does anyone on these forums. The percentiles for the MCAT 2015 have not been published*, and they may not have been set yet.

The percentiles on the PS, VR, and BS sections are not similar to one another, the distributions are shaped differently. For instance, scores of 14 and 15 are extremely rare on VR, but much more common on PS and BS. The MCAT 2015 will likely have four unique score distributions for the four new sections.

As a result, nobody except the AAMC can say how scores convert. And even the AAMC may not know yet.

However, this thread is a good starting point:

SDN: MCAT 2015 Scoring Explained.

* The AAMC has published soothing infographics that claim to show the percentile distribution, but then you notice it is a perfect Gaussian distribution (a normal distribution). The distributions have never been Gaussian in the past, it has always had lower kurtosis and nonzero skewness, so I think the AAMC is just fabricating a soothing story in this case.

 

[texan2414]

In my opinion, med schools have no idea what they are talking about, and neither does anyone on these forums. The percentiles for the MCAT 2015 have not been published, and they may not have been set yet.

The percentiles on the PS, VR, and BS sections are not similar to one another, the distributions are shaped differently. For instance, scores of 14 and 15 are extremely rare on VR, but much more common on PS and BS. The MCAT 2015 will likely have four unique score distributions for the four new sections.

As a result, nobody except the AAMC can say how scores convert. And even the AAMC may not know yet.

However, this thread is a good starting point:

SDN: MCAT 2015 Scoring Explained.

You're right neither the admission officers nor the AAMC knows anything about the scoring scales. I do think they will send a blueprint of some sort before the EY2016 starts. Also, expect the first couple 2015 exam scores to be slightly inflated.

 

[pithy84]

I suspect the AAMC knows a lot more than the admissions officers, and the AAMC knows more than they are saying.

However, the AAMC will have 100 or 1,000 times more data once they actually offer the exam to applicants in April. They have some data already from trial sections, experimental questions, and "lab rat" students who have doubtless been paid to take the new test (in whole or in part), but once a real batch of students sits for the test they will have at least 100 times more data.

 

[Rishikish]

You have to understand that what makes a score competitive are the applicants. I'm pretty sure if you went back 30 years, the MCAT scores would be lower than they are today. Relax, apply early, try your best on the test, and make sure your application is strong in other areas.

 

[Silence in ER]

totally confused by the scoring scales myself. I read it all through last night and I thought wtf? what does this mean. seems like 500 is a bad score, but is it bad like 22 bad or bad like 30 bad?

I suspected it was near the former than the latter. It's terribly confusing.

 

[Blueprint MCAT Tutor]

totally confused by the scoring scales myself. I read it all through last night and I thought wtf? what does this mean. seems like 500 is a bad score, but is it bad like 22 bad or bad like 30 bad?

The point has been made above that this is all up in the air still, so the real answer is "we just have to wait and see". That's pretty unsatisfying, though, so if you're just trying to get some benchmarks to help understand the numbers:

Roughly 25 is typically the average score of all test-takers nationally. According to the AAMC, that will be a 500 on the new test.

So 500 is the new 25.

Roughly 28 is the average score of MD applicants. One additional point in each section above the average. Since the new MCAT has four sections, one additional point would bring you up to a 504.

So 504-505ish is the new 28.

Roughly 31-33 is the average score of MD matriculants. So something like 2-2.5 additional points in each section above the average. Since the new MCAT has four sections, an additional 2.5 points in each section means ten more points.

So 510 is the new 30. (really 31-32ish but 30 is a nice easy to remember round number).

When you're looking at new scores, just remember the round numbers: "500 is the new 25. 510 is the new 30."

That's just educated guesswork at the moment, but it's good enough guesswork to serve as a rough guide as to how you're doing.

 

[Silence in ER]

hmm, so to be competitive, one would want to shoot for like 515 or something, right?