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Hello everyone. I am a second year who will write the exam in June 2011. Meanwhile let this be a good thread where everyone share their study progress and recent trend of the exam.
yeah dude but just think... if the SEM is 6 (which is pretty large), then your 95% CI on a retest (z-score 1.96) is basically +/- 12... so as a "for instance" a person who is really at a "258 level" knowledge-wise could have scored anywhere from 246-270 at the p=0.05 level. Maybe that's what happened to you and you landed at 270. Maybe I had the same ability and I landed at 252. It's impossible to say, really.
So there's a <5% chance you actually should have gotten a 264, and a <5% chance that I actually should have gotten a 258. I don't think that lends much credence to your original claim that 'the major thing separating people who score 250 from those who score 270 is luck' =\
edit: I should also point out that when considering SEM, the given data point is placed at the center of the CI curve, not at one of the cutoffs (as per your example)
Natural talent? What are you...I don't even...
If you ask me, anything past 250, the biggest factor is what form you got. In other words, luck.
I'd say that once you hit 250+, then +/- 5-10 points is luck. There is a real difference between a 250 and a 270 though IMO... and tig makes sure we all know it lol
So there's a <5% chance you actually should have gotten a 264, and a <5% chance that I actually should have gotten a 258. I don't think that lends much credence to your original claim that 'the major thing separating people who score 250 from those who score 270 is luck' =\
edit: I should also point out that when considering SEM, the given data point is placed at the center of the CI curve, not at one of the cutoffs (as per your example)
So there's a <5% chance you actually should have gotten a 264, and a <5% chance that I actually should have gotten a 258. I don't think that lends much credence to your original claim that 'the major thing separating people who score 250 from those who score 270 is luck' =\
edit: I should also point out that when considering SEM, the given data point is placed at the center of the CI curve, not at one of the cutoffs (as per your example)
In the real world, you prob scored at the top of the range of your possible scores -- not in the middle-- and you would regress toward the mean if you took the test again.
Just want to say that it's actually < 2.5% chance but that's besides the pt![]()
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I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but the area under the right side of the curve is equal to the area under the left. The SEM has no skew - we're all as likely to have scored "at the top range" as "at the bottom range." Statements like the one I bolded above are the kind of inaccurate things that make you sound (to me) like you're forming your beliefs more out of emotion than logic.
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I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but the area under the right side of the curve is equal to the area under the left. The SEM has no skew - we're all as likely to have scored "at the top range" as "at the bottom range." Statements like the one I bolded above are the kind of inaccurate things that make you sound (to me) like you're forming your beliefs more out of emotion than logic.
Agh, great catch. My mistake
edit: @eeeeeek: I understand what you're saying. I'm well aware that luck definitely plays a part in it, and that's definitely an important aspect to people scoring way beyond what they expected or way less than what they expected. I'm really just commenting at this point based on the faulty math WashMe is employing (such as failing to recognize that the midline of the confidence interval is the actual data point you have available). By statistical definition, I (and you, and him, and everyone else who've only taken the test once), am equally as likely to have been above my "true" score as below it, despite his claims to the contrary).
I disagree. Look up "regression toward the mean". You got a 270 with a SEM of 6; do you think if you took the test 10 more times your average score is likely to be higher than 270? I'd argue that it's almost certain to be lower, and that your score on the real deal was essentially your maximum potential. If you really think you could average 270+ on 10 exams, you're smoking crack.
Evidently emotion continues to trump logic. I don't really know how else to respond, as your 'argument' gets more and more convoluted as time goes on.![]()
I must be wrong then, while I've read the NBME urban legends page, for some reason I believed that:
A) If you score very high, each question counts for more points on your final score due to the bell curve, similar to the MCAT. At the far end of the scale, one question means the difference between a 270 and a 273. Whereas it can take 3-4 questions to move from a 189 to a 188.
B) Receiving a test form that was rated difficult can scale your score higher if you get a high percentage correct, whereas an easier form, the same high percentage could still end up with a lower score.
At ceiling-level scores, you are more likely to go down, bottom line, and the bell-curve idea doesn't apply. I don't think you could score 270 again, but congratulations for hitting it once. It was a mixture of preparation, talent, and a large dose of luck. This isn't about my score vs. yours; it's about your score, which is at the upper limit of your ability range.
From what I have seen, UWSA only tends to habitually overpredict with people who score 265/800 on it
I scored a 265 on UWSA and a 256 or something on USWA, and mid 250's on NBME 6 and 12.
I actually got a 265.
My status just changed today, and I took my exam on July 26, does that mean I will probably be getting my score today?
Well done.I did, it was a bit lower than I expected but what I said i would be happy with if I made. 220/94, which was 18 pts. lower than UWSA 2 that I took 4 days before my exam. Not going to lose any sleep over this score, but I hope that it helps as I am a DO and only took it to benefit me.
Hi guys. Taking the beast on 24th. Sadly, I did random 10 questions of biochem from Kaplan qbook and got 6 wrong. Wish me luck !! Will post experience for sure.
Lol !! Obviously ! Uworld (random timed with 67% cumul) and 50% usmlerx (don't remember cumul). It's just that I am nervous. And on top of that I suck at Biochem.
Wicked! Hope it went well! Mines in about 5 days, looking foward to tips.Just came home after step 1. It was definitely easier than NBME 11/12. I will post the details later today.
school assessment "comp" : 195 (hahah)
nbme 6: 210 (450)
nbme 11: 224 (510)
(lot of studying here in the middle)
uwsa 1: 257
uwsa 2: 251
nbme 12: 224 (510) <---- don't know what the heck happened
Free 150: 90% (day before)
UWorld qbank: 71% (1st run) last 20 blocks average to about 75%
Kaplan qbank: (about 1/2 done): 73% with score quickly trending upward.
realistic goal: 240+
secret goal: 255+
Real thing: 258/99!!!
So as you can see the best predictor was uwsa 1. Don't get fooled by the ridiculously hard curves on the practice nbme exams. I used them as a guide for what concepts to particularly focus on as they get repeated often in one form or another and tried to also use them to get an idea of style of questions to expect. This exam is as much knowledge as it is test taking ability. Do all you can to not just focus on your knowledge, but also on assessing what types of questions you are missing and why (lack of knowledge? misunderstanding the point? over-thinking? under-thinking? etc.
bottom line: nbmes were horrible predictors for me!!!
great job man, congrats!
i've been trying to use the nbmes for the same purpose you have, i.e. get familiar with all the concepts that the nbme likes to test and the ways they like to test them. did you find this helpful for the real deal with all the changes they made to the test format recently?
Gave step 1 today. Heres my prep and experience--
I dont deny that "took" is a better way to write, but having said that, "gave" does not suggest what you wrote and its not wrong either.Thanks for the post, quite detailed. I'm sure you did well.
I'd like to point out that there seems to be this common mistake for FMGs to say "gave" step 1 rather than "took". You are not giving the exam, unless you are in fact the NBME or ECFMG and you are now posting on your experiences with your examinees. I imagine this arises from another way of saying it: "gave step 1 a try today" or "gave step 1 a go today".
Sorry to be a bother, must be a pet peeve.
My brother in law tool step 1 today. When do you think he will get his score?
Thanks for the post, quite detailed. I'm sure you did well.
I'd like to point out that there seems to be this common mistake for FMGs to say "gave" step 1 rather than "took". You are not giving the exam, unless you are in fact the NBME or ECFMG and you are now posting on your experiences with your examinees. I imagine this arises from another way of saying it: "gave step 1 a try today" or "gave step 1 a go today".
Sorry to be a bother, must be a pet peeve.
Thanks for backing me up. As rightly said, Never argue with a fool - they will drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.How can you possibly have made it this far in life without hearing british english used before, yet have the arrogance to correct what you perceive to be their mistake borne of ignorance? It's mindblowing.
I hope you someday find yourself in the United Kingdom or one of their many former colonies so somebody can imperiously correct your atrocious butchering of their language and/or mocks your stupid accent.
How can you possibly have made it this far in life without hearing british english used before, yet have the arrogance to correct what you perceive to be their mistake borne of ignorance? It's mindblowing.
I hope you someday find yourself in the United Kingdom or one of their many former colonies so somebody can imperiously correct your atrocious butchering of their language and/or mocks your stupid accent.
Thanks !! Best of luck to you for your prep ...Jeez guys whatever happened to "--Discussion ends here--."?
I mean, seriously?
Indsha008 looking forward to your score, i bet you kicked butt! I take the beast Oct 5th - second read of FA finishes in 4 days and then i hit UW running.
Approximately, it's released on 3rd Wednesday of your exam.Just took mine today. It was definitely harder than any NBME. I was marking at least 15-20+ per block, and pretty much had no time to go over the questions. The last NBME I took was over 2 weeks ago (226), so I have no idea how I did in the real thing. At this point, I'm just hoping to score above 220...
Oh, and are there specific release dates for USMLE exams? It seems like most people know when their score will be released.
How can you possibly have made it this far in life without hearing british english used before, yet have the arrogance to correct what you perceive to be their mistake borne of ignorance? It's mindblowing.
I hope you someday find yourself in the United Kingdom or one of their many former colonies so somebody can imperiously correct your atrocious butchering of their language and/or mocks your stupid accent.
This was rude!
Neulite may have been "wrong" in what he claimed, but I don't think he was attacking, he was polite in how he put it.