predict what school will be the first to close in California and when

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Well there is only one school in Orange county so I doubt they will be closing down, the community is in need of MTM.
 
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California Health Sciences University (in Clovis), within 3 graduating classes.

As someone with no life prospects at the time of pharmacy school application, I would have NEVER considered any of these new schools in California. When the value proposition of these California programs is "first in Orange County" or "first in Fresno" you know pharmacy is in dire straits. There are so many other mediocre programs across the nation that cost less. How can anyone be that desperate to "stay in California" but end up in the Fresno area for school?
 
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California Health Sciences University (in Clovis), within 3 graduating classes.

As someone with no life prospects at the time of pharmacy school application, I would have NEVER considered any of these new schools in California. When the value proposition of these California programs is "first in Orange County" or "first in Fresno" you know pharmacy is in dire straits. There are so many other mediocre programs across the nation that cost less. How can anyone be that desperate to "stay in California" but end up in the Fresno area for school?

I was also thinking California Health Science will be the first to go, but maybe the need for pharmacists in Fresno and certain parts of Central CA will keep them running. I think the original 8 schools are safe. I think Northstate might be one of the first ones to go simply bc their school doesn't qualify for govn't based loans. I give both of these "California" schools about 10 years.
 
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I know it's a small sample but it seems people going to the likes of Northstate have rich parents so cost of attendance isn't an issue. (Well hearsay but you can just tell by their entitled don't-give-a-**** attitudes and slowness versus those who actually work hard.) And I know a few who actually borrowed private loans. No IBR, no REPAYE.....
 
California Health Sciences University (in Clovis), within 3 graduating classes.

As someone with no life prospects at the time of pharmacy school application, I would have NEVER considered any of these new schools in California. When the value proposition of these California programs is "first in Orange County" or "first in Fresno" you know pharmacy is in dire straits. There are so many other mediocre programs across the nation that cost less. How can anyone be that desperate to "stay in California" but end up in the Fresno area for school?

It's crazy how close minded people from CA are regarding the concept of leaving the state. Even just for a couple years.

I get that a lot of it is cultural with very involved Asian families but it's mind boggling to me.


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It's crazy how close minded people from CA are regarding the concept of leaving the state. Even just for a couple years.

I get that a lot of it is cultural with very involved Asian families but it's mind boggling to me.

I think it's a few things (aside from the obvious family/friends connections):

1) Californians are California-centric. It's us vs. the rest of the US...in fact, more than once I slipped flying back to California and casually went "well, headed back to the U.S. now" as if I were abroad, but I was in New York. Yeah, that. Hard to explain.

2) It's physically difficult leaving California. There's the vast Pacific Ocean to the west, the Sierra Nevada to the east (Donner Party, anyone?), the Mojave desert to the southeast, Mexico and the fortified border to the south, and the cascades to the north. Before air travel & the railroad, there was a huge chance you were going to die leaving the state.

3) Schools. You figure ~10% of the top 50 universities in the country are here (US News 2016), and the insanely cheap fees at the public universities that are in the top 50/top 100, the only reason to leave for college is if you get into a better school AND have the money to do it. From a cost-benefit perspective, most college bound Californians are best served by the UC/CSU system vs. going to some lower/middle tier school out of state (or paying dearly for a slightly better school). That locks up the 18-24 college crowd.

4) Stuff & size. California is the size of the eastern seaboard, there's surfing & skiing, deserts & beach; hipster enclaves & farms; trees & concrete jungles. Culturally, it's like two different states, so moving intrastate is like moving from New Jersey to Pennsylvania. Counties are as large/dense as small states. It's 800 miles from its southern border to the north.

There's more, but it's time for lunch!

For the record, I think every Californian should leave the state for at least two years once in their life (Las Vegas doesn't count).
 
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It's crazy how close minded people from CA are regarding the concept of leaving the state. Even just for a couple years.

To some people, moving 50 miles outside of San Francisco, Los Angeles, or San Diego might as well be going out of state.
 
It's crazy how close minded people from CA are regarding the concept of leaving the state. Even just for a couple years.

I get that a lot of it is cultural with very involved Asian families but it's mind boggling to me.


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I don't know how the kids are doing it these days, but when I graduated unless you are going the residency route, your best bet of landing a job is from paid internships from chains thorough out your school years and rotations that you are assigned. The vast majority of my friends started their professional careers in the same district of the chain where they interned at as students. A couple got jobs after impressive performances at their rotations( also local assigned by their local school). If you graduate from top schools in the US, like Minnesota, Maryland, UNC and then try to apply for a chain job in Metro LA area, good luck to you. Point I am making is if you attend a local school (like myself), you will get exposure to internship opportunities that are local and will give yourself an opportunity to prove yourself there. Same goes for rotations. Going out of state limits your opportunities in that way.
 
To some people, moving 50 miles outside of San Francisco, Los Angeles, or San Diego might as well be going out of state.

And in many ways it is, given the drastic change in climate, culture, geology, and topography. 50 miles outside of cool foggy beachy san diego is anza-borrego desert state park.
 
I don't know how the kids are doing it these days, but when I graduated unless you are going the residency route, your best bet of landing a job is from paid internships from chains thorough out your school years and rotations that you are assigned. The vast majority of my friends started their professional careers in the same district of the chain where they interned at as students. A couple got jobs after impressive performances at their rotations( also local assigned by their local school). If you graduate from top schools in the US, like Minnesota, Maryland, UNC and then try to apply for a chain job in Metro LA area, good luck to you. Point I am making is if you attend a local school (like myself), you will get exposure to internship opportunities that are local and will give yourself an opportunity to prove yourself there. Same goes for rotations. Going out of state limits your opportunities in that way.

Most of my retail classmates found jobs within 45 miles of the school. Those that did return to home states to retail jobs did so because they maintained their relationship through pharmacy school (worked summers/breaks, were well liked by managers, worked at the local chain near the school during the year).

There were a few notable exceptions when there was a mass recruitment and hiring spree by CVS in San Diego and a few east coasters I knew made the jump.
 
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I just worry that the better schools will opt to make class sizes smaller before the new schools close. Why would the new schools close as long as they can fill the seats? I am concerned that if the better schools shrink their class sizes, it makes it more possible for the new schools to fill their seats.


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I just worry that the better schools will opt to make class sizes smaller before the new schools close. Why would the new schools close as long as they can fill the seats? I am concerned that if the better schools shrink their class sizes, it makes it more possible for the new schools to fill their seats.


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anything that limits supply does not worry me or increases demand :)
 
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There's still 49 other states and their schools to contend with. Every school in California could close and we'd still have an oversupply problem...and I'd have no interns available to readily work.


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Pharmacy schools won't be closing any time soon. Why? Because it is cheap to run a pharmacy school.

You just need some classrooms, lots of chairs, big projectors, one compounding lab (can't be more expensive than my ochem lab). The biggest cost is the professors because many of them don't generate any income - they teach and they work for free.

If there is a significant drop in enrollment, pharmacy schools would cut professors salary and benefits. Where are they going to go? Leave their job and work for CVS? It is not going to happen.

As long as the government keep on handling out student loans to anybody and everybody and as long as pharmacy techs want to become pharmacists, pharmacy schools will keep on rolling along. Being a pharmacist is still a lot better than being a pharmacy tech and working in a billion other crappy jobs.


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Pharmacy schools won't be closing any time soon. Why? Because it is cheap to run a pharmacy school.

You just need some classrooms, lots of chairs, big projectors, one compounding lab (can't be more expensive than my ochem lab). The biggest cost is the professors because many of them don't generate any income - they teach and they work for free.

If there is a significant drop in enrollment, pharmacy schools would cut professors salary and benefits. Where are they going to go? Leave their job and work for CVS? It is not going to happen.

As long as the government keep on handling out student loans to anybody and everybody and as long as pharmacy techs want to become pharmacists, pharmacy schools will keep on rolling along. Being a pharmacist is still a lot better than being a pharmacy tech and working in a billion other crappy jobs.


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Do you think class sizes will get smaller anytime soon?


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Do you think class sizes will get smaller anytime soon?


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Maybe the school with a huge class size but they won't be closing. Just look at law school. How many of them have closed? It is cheap to operate a law school like it is cheap to operate a pharmacy school. But law has something that pharmacy does not have...the bar exam.




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http://getoutofdebt.org/99519/student-loan-bubble-many-dont-want-see

The Student Loan Bubble That Many Don’t Want to See
Steve Rhode July 15, 2016

I can’t help but see the incredible irony in the mortgage collapse that many said would never happen, and the student loan bubble.

The collapse created by the student loan bubble is different but just as catastrophic. As the average debt per student loan borrower continues to climb and federal and private student loan debt grows, the consequences of not dealing with this bubble will be as traumatic as the mortgage failure recession.

The worst thing about these big economic bubbles is the data stares us in the face but most don’t see it.

Unlike the subprime mortgage failure that caused the foreclosure rate to explode and massive job loss, the bursting of the student loan bubble will cause more systemic issues.

When this bubble bursts, and it will, it won’t lead to an immediate collapse but a collapse of the United States to excel in a future world economy. A collapse in the student loan market will place real eduction out of reach of many and put a drag on the overall economy as fewer and fewer people will be able to pay for tuition that outpaces inflation.

Without easy access to student loans and a shrinking student base, schools will have to cut costs to bring tuition back inside available lending. Many schools, public and private, will fail. Public schools will fail as long as states continue to cut state funding for education.

It seems the thing we value least, at times, is education and opportunity for all. States cut funding for public colleges, teacher salaries remain flat, and education lotteries are a misnomer. They don’t really benefit education.

Like the crazy mortgage asset backed securities (ABS) or collateralized debt obligations (CDO) the private student loan industry had been packaging up student loans into trusts an student loan asset backed securities (SLABS).

Like CDOs that Wall Street rating agencies rated, ABS products have ratings as well. Moody’s Investors Service recently downgraded a bunch of these products.

“Moody’s placed 266 tranches in 141 transactions ($44.9 billion) on review for downgrade, 89 tranches in 59 transactions ($3.1 billion) on review for upgrade and 45 tranches in 34 transactions ($2.8 billion) on review with direction uncertain. Moody’s also confirmed the ratings on three tranches ($1.5 billion).

In addition, 101 tranches ($30.7 billion) previously placed on review for downgrade will remain on review for downgrade and four tranches ($1.4 billion) previously placed on review for upgrade will remain on review for upgrade.”

Moody’s goes on to say, ” For most tranches, Moody’s projects cash inflows to be less than sufficient to repay the notes by their final maturity.”

Moody’s also says that the quality of these securities will continue to decline if there is “growing borrower usage of deferment, forbearance and IBR.” –Source

But other people are seeing the same things and making the same connections as well when it comes to the issues created by federal loans.

Jack Du said, “Unlike private lenders, the federal government doesn’t check credit records for student loan borrowers. This leads to many uncreditworthy borrowers qualifying for loans and then being saddled with debt indefinitely with little hope of paying it back. This harkens back to the sub-prime housing loans that drove up the housing bubble. Investors should be wary of how much longer these aggressive student loan lending strategies can be sustained.” – Source

Du also observed, “student loan asset-backed securities seem to be a valuable asset to the economy. However, whether this industry can sustain itself will come down to whether enough borrowers can eventually pay their debt obligations and that is looking like a slim prospect.”

For a college student himself, he’s pretty smart.

So the situation we have is easy to access federal student loans are becoming lifelong debt and lead people to problematic income driven repayment programs.

The private student loan industry is a mess with fractionalized SLABS and the hooks into co-signers they most often won’t release.

It’s a bubble and a mess, all at the same time.

If you have a credit or debt question you’d like to ask just use the online form. I’m happy to help you totally for free.



http://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-wells-fargo-student-loans-idUSKCN10125S

 
What is going to happen next is pharmacy schools are going to go from a 4 year program to a 3 year program with no summer break. This would reduce cost and of course time but it will graduate more pharmacists. In the long run, it is bad for the pharmacy school but it will be an easy, short term fix and a way to remain competitive.


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Marshall B. Ketchum

Only because the first five times I saw it, I thought it was Marshall B. Ketchup, which made me laugh and think there is no way that is a real school.
 
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What is going to happen next is pharmacy schools are going to go from a 4 year program to a 3 year program with no summer break. This would reduce cost and of course time but it will graduate more pharmacists. In the long run, it is bad for the pharmacy school but it will be an easy, short term fix and a way to remain competitive.


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Nah...faculty won't willingly give up their slow summer or no summer schedule, and faculty protections through their university Senate and/or collectively bargained contracts will prevent a forced change.

Good thought, but no.
 
What is going to happen next is pharmacy schools are going to go from a 4 year program to a 3 year program with no summer break. This would reduce cost and of course time but it will graduate more pharmacists. In the long run, it is bad for the pharmacy school but it will be an easy, short term fix and a way to remain competitive.


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Perhaps, I'm confused. How would that switch to a 3-year program generate more income? The same number of students graduate per year (unless class sizes change too) so your total throughput doesn't change. Unless total per-student tuition costs are increased, I don't think income increases. And I'm not sure I understand how costs will be reduced. Is there a significant, inherent efficiency built into a 3-year program?


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By increasing class size if there is no physical barrier to doing so and by increasing annual tuition. Students will of course pay less vs 4 years and will save an extra year. This makes the program more attractive.

When faculty realize their salary will be affected because they are losing students to 3 year programs then they will change their tone. Besides a lot of teaching can be done online so they can still have their summer off.


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By increasing class size if there is no physical barrier to doing so and by increasing annual tuition. Students will of course pay less vs 4 years and will save an extra year.

When faculty realize their salary will be affected because they are losing students to 3 year programs then they will change their tone. Besides a lot of teaching can be done online so they can still have their summer off.


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I'm still confused as to how increasing class size and total tuition (not merely annual) are intrinsic to 3-year programs. A standard, four-year program could increase class sizes and tuition to get more money too. Three-year programs have been around for ages. Why wouldn't've schools switched if this were truly a benefit? Instead these schools have relied on increasing class sizes by opening satellite campuses and expanding their current classes. Tuition too has increased. But I don't see any schools rushing to switch to a different academic schedule.

The only benefit is for students who have the potential to earn an extra year of pharmacists' income. Though this may not be truly worth it. As other posters mentioned, this eliminates opportunities to work/intern/do research over the summers. That may limit future options, but this is all speculation. I don't have any data either way to show that outcomes are or are not different between students who attend 3- v. 4-year programs.


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I'm still confused as to how increasing class size and total tuition (not merely annual) are intrinsic to 3-year programs. A standard, four-year program could increase class sizes and tuition to get more money too. Three-year programs have been around for ages. Why wouldn't've schools switched if this were truly a benefit? Instead these schools have relied on increasing class sizes by opening satellite campuses and expanding their current classes. Tuition too has increased. But I don't see any schools rushing to switch to a different academic schedule.

The only benefit is for students who have the potential to earn an extra year of pharmacists' income. Though this may not be truly worth it. As other posters mentioned, this eliminates opportunities to work/intern/do research over the summers. That may limit future options, but this is all speculation. I don't have any data either way to show that outcomes are or are not different between students who attend 3- v. 4-year programs.


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Here is my example:

(1) 4 year program: USC charges $50 k a year x 4 years = $200 k. 150 students per class so that's a total of 600 students.

(2) 3 year program: USC decreases tuition to $60 k a year x 3 years = $180 k. Increase enrollment to 200 students per class so that is a total of 600 students.

With 3 years, the school increases its revenue while students pay less tuition and save a year. This makes the school more attractive. There are some negatives to a 3 year program but most pre pharmacy students care more about paying less tuition and saving a year.

Remember this strategy is not so much for the school but a way for the school to be competitive and to attract more students.


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Here is my example:

(1) 4 year program: USC charges $50 k a year x 4 years = $200 k. 150 students per class so that's a total of 600 students.

(2) 3 year program: USC decreases tuition to $60 k a year x 3 years = $180 k. Increase enrollment to 200 students per class so that is a total of 600 students.

With 3 years, the school increases its revenue while students pay less tuition and save a year. This makes the school more attractive. There are some negatives to a 3 year program but most pre pharmacy students care more about paying less tuition and saving a year.

Remember this strategy is not so much for the school but a way for the school to be competitive and to attract more students.


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Ah, I see what you're saying now. You're making the assumption of maintaining consistent total enrollment (thus increasing class size) whereas I was viewing it as maintaining consistent class sizes (thus decreasing total enrollment). I would imagine this would be difficult for schools to do, given the drops in application numbers. If all four-year schools took this approach, there would be a 33% increase in total annual enrollment nationwide. There would be more available seats than students applying.


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I agree this is not a way for a school to make more money. It is a way for them to become more competitive. If they can't increase their class size with a 3 year program, just imagine what their class size be without it.


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I agree this is not a way for a school to make more money. It is a way for them to become more competitive. If they can't increase their class size with a 3 year program, just imagine what their class size be without it.


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I see that, but my point was simply that it's not a sustainable approach as supply of seats would exceed the number of applicants.

I think we're awfully close to the point where number of applicants equal the number of seats. I did a calculation in another thread using AACP enrollment numbers and PharmCAS applicant numbers showing that 80% of students who apply to pharmacy school get in.

If that was a valid estimate and if a substantial number of schools switch to your model, there could end up being more seats than applicants. That's not in a school's best interest. Schools invest resources many years in advance for specific class sizes. Not filling the seats would mean they aren't pulling in enough money to offset their initial investment.

Also, as a student, I don't know that I would find a 3-year program more attractive. In fact I wanted a 4-year program, so I could be able to do internships and research with the intent to be more competitive for any post-graduate training programs.

I don't know if any of the 3-year programs are any more in demand by students than their 4-year counterparts. Is there any data to suggest greater application numbers for those programs?


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Like I said..in the long run it is a bad idea for pharmacy schools. It is a competitive world and every school is going to try recruit more students. Not every school is going to be able to do this because of their building and lecture halls.

Right now USC is losing a lot of students to UCSF but if they can lower their overall tuition and save students an extra year then I am sure USC will not loss as many students to UCSF.


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If you're counting the ones that the state pulled authorization from, that'd be UC Merced as the first casualty. Now the topic is the second pharmacy school to close...If you follow the politics around the UC Merced Med School (the Davis partnership being the final screw you), that's also why the pharmacy school got nixed.

My own dark pick is actually UCSF by eliminating their undergraduate pharmacy division in favor of complete graduate programs (kinda like the way UC Davis works for Medicine). They are the least interested of all the schools in running the PharmD program despite their leadership and they have the internal funding to tell the state to get lost as they pretty much don't depend on the state for anything but PharmD training as a subsidy.
 
I see that, but my point was simply that it's not a sustainable approach as supply of seats would exceed the number of applicants.

I think we're awfully close to the point where number of applicants equal the number of seats. I did a calculation in another thread using AACP enrollment numbers and PharmCAS applicant numbers showing that 80% of students who apply to pharmacy school get in.

If that was a valid estimate and if a substantial number of schools switch to your model, there could end up being more seats than applicants. That's not in a school's best interest. Schools invest resources many years in advance for specific class sizes. Not filling the seats would mean they aren't pulling in enough money to offset their initial investment.

Also, as a student, I don't know that I would find a 3-year program more attractive. In fact I wanted a 4-year program, so I could be able to do internships and research with the intent to be more competitive for any post-graduate training programs.

I don't know if any of the 3-year programs are any more in demand by students than their 4-year counterparts. Is there any data to suggest greater application numbers for those programs?


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to a lot of newbie's out there a three year program is as good as the new pokemon go game. You get to start making that 120K a year earlier and get your Mercedes a year earlier, as well..
 
I would speculate that more reputable schools will leave seats empty or reduce class sizes in lieu of accepting subpar applicants, if they want to preserve their reputation. Either that or they'll fail out a greater percentage of students before they go on IPPEs/APPEs.
 
Marshall B. Ketchum

Only because the first five times I saw it, I thought it was Marshall B. Ketchup, which made me laugh and think there is no way that is a real school.

I was like "wtf is this school" but I looked and realized they had just rebranded SCCO (optometry school), kind of like how Nevada College of Pharmacy became University of Southern Nevada (USN) and is now Roseman.




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Oh to answer the question: I think a reputable public school (UCSF, UCSD) will closer sooner than any of the newer schools or for profit institutions.

Reasons = public schools are tied to state budgets and thus subject to a political process and revenue issues. Current example: Chicago State (which is not closing, but has budget issues tied to the state budgeting process).

Given recent structural changes in budget process and the prop 98 guaranteed funding rule, it's very unlikely.

Private, for profit schools will keep accepting until the acceptance rate approaches 100% of applicants....they'll keep going like a tumor until the patient dies.


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Though this may not be truly worth it. As other posters mentioned, this eliminates opportunities to work/intern/do research over the summers. That may limit future options, but this is all speculation. I don't have any data either way to show that outcomes are or are not different between students who attend 3- v. 4-year programs.

A 3 yr program would also limit students abilities to retake classes over the summer. This would be especially problematic, given the marginal ability of many students being accepted these days (going by their GPA, PCAT, and posts here from people who flunked out their last year of school. Definitely something students should be considering before making the decision to go to a 3 yr school over a 4 yr, 4 yr schools allow classes to be made-up during the summer (at least certain classes), a 3 yr school would require someone to miss out on a whole year to make up a class.
 
A 3 yr program would also limit students abilities to retake classes over the summer. This would be especially problematic, given the marginal ability of many students being accepted these days (going by their GPA, PCAT, and posts here from people who flunked out their last year of school. Definitely something students should be considering before making the decision to go to a 3 yr school over a 4 yr, 4 yr schools allow classes to be made-up during the summer (at least certain classes), a 3 yr school would require someone to miss out on a whole year to make up a class.

Does/did your 4-year program allow for making up classes in the summer? Our program doesn't allow it. Same deal -- if you fail, you're held back a full year.


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I got an email about a faculty spot at West Coast University.

While the commute would be great, umm, no.

Nope. Nope. Nope.


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I got an email about a faculty spot at West Coast University.

While the commute would be great, umm, no.

Nope. Nope. Nope.


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How cush would that job be, though? Summers off, banker's hours...I mean, sure you sold part of your soul, but that's no different than our retail brethren, hahaha.


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How cush would that job be, though? Summers off, banker's hours...I mean, sure you sold part of your soul, but that's no different than our retail brethren, hahaha.


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I'm curious what hospital would be the clinical practice site.


I'm too much of a control freak about my actual practice - I've interviewed for a few faculty spots, but especially for the newer schools they need so much faculty involvement in all the clubs and committees, it really detracts from your clinical practice. Never mind lecturing, review sessions, and then the students on rotation!


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Does/did your 4-year program allow for making up classes in the summer? Our program doesn't allow it. Same deal -- if you fail, you're held back a full year.
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Yes, but I went to a 0 - 5 program, back in the old days when it was only 5 years. Many core classes (not all) were offered during the summer. Obviously, individual schools may vary. But now I'm curious, is it that uncommon for schools to offer make-up classes during the summer? I would think most schools would want to, because of the increased revenue potential.
 
Yes, but I went to a 0 - 5 program, back in the old days when it was only 5 years. Many core classes (not all) were offered during the summer. Obviously, individual schools may vary. But now I'm curious, is it that uncommon for schools to offer make-up classes during the summer? I would think most schools would want to, because of the increased revenue potential.

I'm not sure there's that much revenue potential. The resources required to invest in instruction for a handful of students is not inconsequential, and the revenue can be made the same way by holding the students back a year.

In my experience (I go to a state school), my school seems to make sure they have their steady stream of income, but they aren't looking to nickel and dime you through the program. For example, for our winter and summer elective classes, instead of registering for the winter and summer terms where we would have to pay for that term, they set it up so we register in the subsequent spring or fall. This allows us to take the elective without paying additional money in tuition, since a full-time course load costs the same whether it's 18 units or 21 units. In fact I'm doing my dual degree masters program at no additional cost due to this, and it helped me get a $10,000 scholarship specifically for dual degree students. While I love the program, I probably wouldn't have done it if it cost more money.

I've thoroughly enjoyed taking extra coursework in the summers and winters at no additional cost. In addition to my masters courses, I've taken two other classes, a translational research course at the med school and an interdisciplinary geriatrics class.


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A better question to ask is what pharmacy school will open next in California. Don't they already have like 12 schools or something?
 
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Yes, but I went to a 0 - 5 program, back in the old days when it was only 5 years. Many core classes (not all) were offered during the summer. Obviously, individual schools may vary. But now I'm curious, is it that uncommon for schools to offer make-up classes during the summer? I would think most schools would want to, because of the increased revenue potential.

UF does not, and I don't think any Florida schools do.
 
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