The purchasing power of $110-130k starting salary in 2015.

[Cold Front]

This figure has been the benchmark since...well, as far back as I can remember (at least 15 years ago).

While inflation raised the cost of everything, from tuition to cost of goods and living. If inflation was applied to dentist starting salary, it would be close to $170-180k in 2015. The purchasing power of a new dentist has definitely changed over the years - maybe as much as 30-40% less, and will continue to decline as debt payments and cost of living goes up.

In another decade or so, I doubt that entrance level income would change, leading for many future dentists to wonder, is dentistry still financially rewarding career as it once was?

Inspired by this article: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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Members don't see this ad.

 

[THS]

Interesting topic, I have never considered that starting salary for dentists hasn't adjusted.

 

[jippyslim]

This is true for the economy writ large. Most sectors, except 'wall street', have not seen incomes increase for decades.

 

[Weakfart]

Interesting topic, I have never considered that starting salary for dentists hasn't adjusted.

Hasn't adjusted for most people actually. It's rather unfortunate. For programs requiring advanced degrees (i.e Dentistry), the increase of tuition is also increasing by a lot. Look here:

Where the cost of dental education has risen by nearly double in the last 20 years. This on top of

• undergraduate tuition
• Rising application/exam costs
• Increased rates on student loans

And that stagnant salary is seems a lot worse. Don't get me wrong, it's still faring better than other careers but to reiterate other members on SDN, we absolutely cannot expect the same standard of living as a dentist from 20 years ago, which is why so many members on here agree with the notion of going to the "Cheaper school". No one knows for sure what the prospects of dentistry will hold in the next 10,20, or 30 years and minimizing initial investments to your education will minimize the risk of running into a shortcoming later on. I mean it's bad enough we have to dish out nearly double for the applications and the admissions exam over med students but at least try to minimize cost everywhere else.

Again don't get me wrong I am committed to the field as any other predent student and I hope things change but don't expect to be living like Bill Gates or anything. I also am not bashing any expensive school, I am just talking light finances.

 

[r2thekesh]

The numbers ASDA is showing aren't the best numbers for making their point. The averages contain numbers where people are getting scholarshipped for whatever reason and paying $0. It should show numbers of the amount of loans taken out divided by students taking out those loans. Then take all those people doing service/military scholarships and show what the amount of money they are paying off with service.

 

[Cold Front]

Couple of things that clearly attribute to the diminishing value of dental degree:

1. Tuition increases have averaged 5% a year for most (if not all) schools, compared to average inflation of 1.5% over the past 15 years. The tuition will continue to outpace inflation in the foreseeable future.

2. In the real world, the fees of dental services have (for the most part) remained stagnant due to competition between dental offices, specially during the last economic downturn. Dental insurances reimbursement fees haven't kept up with inflation either.

3. If the above factors don't change, the networth of a dentist will continue to decline, increasing the retirement age, and possibly leaving corporate dental companies to turn the profession into pharmacy like chains. A conveyor belt for new grads to enter the profession. This is 2025 scenario, if not sooner.

 

[cmcner]

Couple of things that clearly attribute to the diminishing value of dental degree:

1. Tuition increases have averaged 5% a year for most (if not all) schools, compared to average inflation of 1.5% over the past 15 years. The tuition will continue to outpace inflation in the foreseeable future.

2. In the real world, the fees of dental services have (for the most part) remained stagnant due to competition between dental offices, specially during the last economic downturn. Dental insurances reimbursement fees haven't kept up with inflation either.

3. If the above factors don't change, the networth of a dentist will continue to decline, increasing the retirement age, and possibly leaving corporate dental companies to turn the profession into pharmacy like chains. A conveyor belt for new grads to enter the profession. This is 2025 scenario, if not sooner.

If this 5% annual increase goes on for 15 more years it will cost $1,000,000 for a school that currently costs $500,000 so it will be interesting to see if students still take the bait if salary stays stagnant or only goes up to $150,000 and keeps pace with inflation. If your loans are going to be $2,000,000 after 25 years of interest and that's before taxes it might pop the dental school bubble if students refuse to go and that will either lead to reform or dental school closure.

 

[Daneosaurus]

If this 5% annual increase goes on for 15 more years it will cost $1,000,000 for a school that currently costs $500,000 so it will be interesting to see if students still take the bait if salary stays stagnant or only goes up to $150,000 and keeps pace with inflation. If your loans are $2,000,000 after 25 years of interest and that's before taxes it might pop the dental school bubble if students refuse to go and that will either lead to reform or dental school closure.

Which scenario is more likely?

 

[Cold Front]

Using the Bureau of Labor Statatics Calculator we find that the money has much less buying power as it did in the old days.

For example:
10 years from now $310 would only be worth $233
20 years from now $964 would only be worth $526
30 years from now $2,995 would only be worth $901
40 years from now $9,305 would only be worth $1,494
50 years from now $28,900 would only be worth $3,855

Now, let's assume 10 years from now that starting salary is about $130-140k - which is mostly determined by the job market, and the number of patients a new grad can see, which would would feel like $90-100k in today's money. We all know no new grad would settle for $90-100k starting salary unless they have a major scholarship or loan forgiveness program that came with the job, specially with $250-400k+ debt.

A bleak view of things to come.

 

[Cold Front]

If this 5% annual increase goes on for 15 more years it will cost $1,000,000 for a school that currently costs $500,000 so it will be interesting to see if students still take the bait if salary stays stagnant or only goes up to $150,000 and keeps pace with inflation. If your loans are going to be $2,000,000 after 25 years of interest and that's before taxes it might pop the dental school bubble if students refuse to go and that will either lead to reform or dental school closure.

Well, some schools like USC and Midwestern are already close to $500k a year for total cost of attendance.

https://www.midwestern.edu/Documents/Financial Aid documents/COA Forms/2014-15 revised AZ/Dental _ AZ 1415 final.pdf

In 5 years at 5% increases, those schools will charge $600k. In 10 years $750k, in 15 close to $1M.

Midwestern actually has recently increased their class size from 120 to 150, and still has a long alternate/waitlist for applicants every year. Many applicants don't see the bigger picture, and some are already carrying $100k+ debt from undergrad. Now consider they do get accepted to a dental school, and decide to specialize in Orthodontics and Endodontics - that's another $250k cost of attendance.

https://dentistry.usc.edu/programs/certificate/orthodontics/

There are doctors out there with this kind of debt.

 

[Silent Cool]

Well, some schools like USC and Midwestern are already close to $500k a year for total cost of attendance.

https://www.midwestern.edu/Documents/Financial Aid documents/COA Forms/2014-15 revised AZ/Dental _ AZ 1415 final.pdf

In 5 years at 5% increases, those schools will charge $600k. In 10 years $750k, in 15 close to $1M.

Midwestern actually has recently increased their class size from 120 to 150, and still has a long alternate/waitlist for applicants every year. Many applicants don't see the bigger picture, and some are already carrying $100k+ debt from undergrad. Now consider they do get accepted to a dental school, and decide to specialize in Orthodontics and Endodontics - that's another $250k cost of attendance.

https://dentistry.usc.edu/programs/certificate/orthodontics/

There are doctors out there with this kind of debt.

Yup.

See my thread:

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/first-educational-pathway-costing-1-million-in-debt.974639/

Also check out this reddit thread from an endodontist 1 million in debt:

http://www.reddit.com/r/personalfin..._to_pay_off_about_1_million_in_student_loans/

 

[Daneosaurus]

Well, some schools like USC and Midwestern are already close to $500k a year for total cost of attendance.

https://www.midwestern.edu/Documents/Financial Aid documents/COA Forms/2014-15 revised AZ/Dental _ AZ 1415 final.pdf

In 5 years at 5% increases, those schools will charge $600k. In 10 years $750k, in 15 close to $1M.

Midwestern actually has recently increased their class size from 120 to 150, and still has a long alternate/waitlist for applicants every year. Many applicants don't see the bigger picture, and some are already carrying $100k+ debt from undergrad. Now consider they do get accepted to a dental school, and decide to specialize in Orthodontics and Endodontics - that's another $250k cost of attendance.

https://dentistry.usc.edu/programs/certificate/orthodontics/

There are doctors out there with this kind of debt.

That is not 500k/yr. That is just over 400k/4 years.

 

[Cold Front]

That is not 500k/yr. That is just over 400k/4 years.

$470k off campus.

 

[Daneosaurus]

$470k off campus.

The point remains that this isn't 400k each year.

 

[Weakfart]

Well, some schools like USC and Midwestern are already close to $500k a year for total cost of attendance.

https://www.midwestern.edu/Documents/Financial Aid documents/COA Forms/2014-15 revised AZ/Dental _ AZ 1415 final.pdf

In 5 years at 5% increases, those schools will charge $600k. In 10 years $750k, in 15 close to $1M.

Midwestern actually has recently increased their class size from 120 to 150, and still has a long alternate/waitlist for applicants every year. Many applicants don't see the bigger picture, and some are already carrying $100k+ debt from undergrad. Now consider they do get accepted to a dental school, and decide to specialize in Orthodontics and Endodontics - that's another $250k cost of attendance.

https://dentistry.usc.edu/programs/certificate/orthodontics/

There are doctors out there with this kind of debt.

Why would they EVER give out a fixed cost estimation for something like this?

 

[GD26]

The whole notion of our generation of dentists not living like dentists did 20 years ago is kind of confusing to me... Sure, maybe u won't make 400k your first year out, but I know plenty of GPs and specialists making that much or more. So I don't understand why so many people think that our generation won't be able to make that much and live an excessively comfortable life in 10 or 15 years... If you go into a practice or buy one, I still think that is a very realistic possibility after a few years

 

[johnho771]

The whole notion of our generation of dentists not living like dentists did 20 years ago is kind of confusing to me... Sure, maybe u won't make 400k your first year out, but I know plenty of GPs and specialists making that much or more. So I don't understand why so many people think that our generation won't be able to make that much and live an excessively comfortable life in 10 or 15 years... If you go into a practice or buy one, I still think that is a very realistic possibility after a few years

I agree. I think many dentists will be able to make big incomes in the future. Sure there will be challenges and it will not necessarily be easy, but there have always been challenges and it never was easy. I think the biggest thing for making big incomes in the future, is limiting educational debt. Keeping initial debt low, will help open up opportunities for higher incomes in the future.

 

[Cold Front]

I agree. I think many dentists will be able to make big incomes in the future. Sure there will be challenges and it will not necessarily be easy, but there have always been challenges and it never was easy. I think the biggest thing for making big incomes in the future, is limiting educational debt. Keeping initial debt low, will help open up opportunities for higher incomes in the future.

The hypothetical predicament is based on historical debt to income ratio for the average "new grad dentist" entering the profession, and how indicators like tuition increases and static starting salary could hit a tipping point for future new grads to not make enough money if education debt reaches a threshold that is unsustainable to start repaying in the first few of years for many new dentists (who attended top tier expensive schools).

Yes, an experienced dentist has a potential to make more money in the long run, but if the short term challenges continue to grow, then it will certainly impact the long term potential too. Coming out of school with twice as today's debt, one would hope those newbie dentists would not be living on a department store employee wages.

Assuming this is a hypothetical scenario, I wouldn't worry too much if I was in school or considering dentistry today. In 10-15 years, it would be interesting to see if this theory holds and how it would impact perspective students interest in dentistry at that time.

 

[SCDP]

I feel like an a** asking this but do dentists coming out of school with no debt benefit from the fact that a majority of dentists will have insane amounts of debt?

Like more opportunities to buy practices, not be tied to associateship/corporate, etc.?

 

[yappy]

I feel like an a** asking this but do dentists coming out of school with no debt benefit from the fact that a majority of dentists will have insane amounts of debt?

Like more opportunities to buy practices, not be tied to associateship/corporate, etc.?

IMO no because even though you may feel that you have more options their forced choice into corp dentistry supports the employment/clinic model of dentistry.

 

[SCDP]

IMO no because even though you may feel that you have more options their forced choice into corp dentistry supports the employment/clinic model of dentistry.

So my goal should be to own a practice(s) which isn't corporate like and hire my debt ridden colleagues...

 

[Cold Front]

So my goal should be to own a practice(s) which isn't corporate like and hire my debt ridden colleagues...

This is exactly what Aspen and Heartland Dental are doing. They capitalize on increasing debt for future graduates, and offer them some unrealistic income.

Perfect example is this ASDA presentation, with outrages promised income of $750k/year if they take control over your career:
http://www.asdanet.org/uploadedFiles/11.2-3 - Benefits of Dental Group Practice - Aspen breakout.ppt

Unfortunately, more and more new debt ridden grads will be corporate employees or find themselves in offices they would pass if they were not in dire financial circumstances.

 

[GD26]

This is exactly what Aspen and Heartland Dental are doing. They capitalize on increasing debt for future graduates, and offer them some unrealistic income.

Perfect example is this ASDA presentation, with outrages promised income of $750k/year if they take control over your career:
http://www.asdanet.org/uploadedFiles/11.2-3 - Benefits of Dental Group Practice - Aspen breakout.ppt

Unfortunately, more and more new debt ridden grads will be corporate employees or find themselves in offices they would pass if they were not in dire financial circumstances.

Does anyone know how accurate that 750k is??? Cause if your trying to make money that seems like the right move to me... Haha open up a few aspen dentals

 

[yappy]

So my goal should be to own a practice(s) which isn't corporate like and hire my debt ridden colleagues...

I'm just a dental student but from what I gather there are many dentists out there that own a primary practice and eventually start a satellite practice for passive income. However, some of the limitations I've read about is that you're managing twice the staff which can be a headache; or, you may even have a high maintenance associate (many of the independent dentists won't want to be your associate forever or at all). Another limitation the type of dentistry you want to practice; if you want to open up many practice be prepared to adopt a model that accepts many insurances including medicaid; although, this seems market dependent. Basically, if you want the benefits of corp dentistry than be prepared to play their game - not saying it couldn't be done.

Personally, I think it seems like too much of a headache to attempt to manage more than two practices and would rather pursue additional income via commercial or residential real estate.

I think we're just seeing a stratification of the dentist labor market where some people will back themselves into less opportunity temporarily and support the corp dentistry model with their employment. I don't think that should negatively or positively affect you too much because beyond the first couple years it seems as though all the dentists I've meet move into an ownership position. Corp dentistry seems like a transient position for inexperienced dentists.

 

[Cold Front]

Does anyone know how accurate that 750k is??? Cause if your trying to make money that seems like the right move to me... Haha open up a few aspen dentals

The $750k is probably the top 5% of their dentists who own multiple aspen offices. 85% of aspen dentists make under $300k (a good junk of this group under $250k).

To make at aspen dental:

1. Aspen has full control over your schedule and vacations.
2. You buy into practices, $250k and get 50% of profits.
3. You can never walk away from Aspen if you partner up with them on an office. It's "until death do us part" deal.
4. Aspen runs all business from A-Z.
5. If Aspen wants to introduce a new business model to run their offices, you have no right to object to it - even if it's unethical or immoral. You will be asked to sell cheap value dentures like a car dealership.

That's how you make $750k+.

Oh, plus you see 60 patients a day for the rest of your career.

 

[Weakfart]

The $750k is probably the top 5% of their dentists who own multiple aspen offices. 85% of aspen dentists make under $300k (a good junk of this group under $250k).

To make at aspen dental:

1. Aspen has full control over your schedule and vacations.
2. You buy into practices, $250k and get 50% of profits.
3. You can never walk away from Aspen if you partner up with them on an office. It's "until death do us part" deal.
4. Aspen runs all business from A-Z.
5. If Aspen wants to introduce a new business model to run their offices, you have no right to object to it - even if it's unethical or immoral. You will be asked to sell cheap value dentures like a car dealership.

That's how you make $750k+.

Oh, plus you see 60 patients a day for the rest of your career.

What some people do for money...

 

[Marmalade]

I feel like an a** asking this but do dentists coming out of school with no debt benefit from the fact that a majority of dentists will have insane amounts of debt?

Like more opportunities to buy practices, not be tied to associateship/corporate, etc.?

YES! Only considering people whose personal DS debt is known to me has revealed these generalizations:

• No debt? Practice owner considering whether to open a 2nd site with more hired associates / owns home, cars / relaxed / happy /positive
• DS Debt? Associate, renting home / older 2nd hand car / works for either an older DDS or a young DDS without DS debt/ worried.

I'm sure there are exceptions. This has been my clear observation. In fact at the CDS MWM last week I had lunch with an acquaintance who graduated recently (2009, perhaps 2010). He currently owns 22 practices and "I'm opening 6 more this year". Seriously. Not average, not normal, but real.

Being financially crippled at the get-go and having to make debt payments of $3000+/month clearly affects your outlook and possibilities in the first 10 years out. In my experience (again, notice the caveat) if you are struggling with the debt of your education and the expense of life, you are disinclined to borrow far more just to possibly make it; you end up saying yes to jobs you don't particularly like and just making-do.

Just as debt is compounded, so is early financial gain. Not being in debt on day one is an early financial advantage.

Best of luck to us all.

 

[Cold Front]

I'm sure there are exceptions. This has been my clear observation. In fact at the CDS MWM last week I had lunch with an acquaintance who graduated recently (2009, perhaps 2010). He currently owns 22 practices and "I'm opening 6 more this year". Seriously. Not average, not normal, but real.

Not being in debt on day one is an early financial advantage.

Best of luck to us all.

22 practices in 5 years? What is that? 4-5 new offices a year? In the words of the great Frank Underwood, I can smell which way the wind is blowing on this one.

No, paying off debt first is not always the best option. School debt is suppose to work for you, by giving you options to start or buy a business, and that will in turn have return in your investment (school debt). If you delay those options, then you are just wasting time to have a head start in the game, and the return of investment potential will be delayed too and opportunities may become little more difficult to come by. This is strictly true if you don't apply this concept early in your career, as you are most energetic, where body and ambition are at peak levels.

I found the best route to be working hard and smarter will simply take care of your school debt eventually. Focus on potential first, the rest will fall in place.

 

[Marmalade]

Cold Front: school debt does not "Work for you". What on Earth does that mean?

In my experience is hard to look that far ahead when you can't make the loan payment.

My boss/mentor was recently waxing about his/our 5 year plan. I logged in to my bank account as he talked and showed him my data. I explained that "I'm not looking 5 years ahead, nor one year. I'm looking at the fact I've got $750 in my account and my loans are due next week ($2900) which will mean I'm overdrawn again, or I have to take yet more money from our savings account"

Oddly, I consider myself lucky as my wife has a very good job and one of my jobs pays well for the work I do.

My situation has improved, but I'm doing little more than treading water.

After speaking with 'Dr 22 offices' at MWM, I'm meeting with a broker next Wednesday to discuss possibilities.

 

[rendal]

22 practices in 5 years? What is that? 4-5 new offices a year? In the words of the great Frank Underwood, I can smell which way the wind is blowing on this one.

No, paying off debt first is not always the best option. School debt is suppose to work for you, by giving you options to start or buy a business, and that will in turn have return in your investment (school debt). If you delay those options, then you are just wasting time to have a head start in the game, and the return of investment potential will be delayed too and opportunities may become little more difficult to come by. This is strictly true if you don't apply this concept early in your career, as you are most energetic, where body and ambition are at peak levels.

I found the best route to be working hard and smarter will simply take care of your school debt eventually. Focus on potential first, the rest will fall in place.

Frank Underwood you say?

 

[Cold Front]

Cold Front: school debt does not "Work for you". What on Earth does that mean?

In my experience is hard to look that far ahead when you can't make the loan payment.

My boss/mentor was recently waxing about his/our 5 year plan. I logged in to my bank account as he talked and showed him my data. I explained that "I'm not looking 5 years ahead, nor one year. I'm looking at the fact I've got $750 in my account and my loans are due next week ($2900) which will mean I'm overdrawn again, or I have to take yet more money from our savings account"

Oddly, I consider myself lucky as my wife has a very good job and one of my jobs pays well for the work I do.

My situation has improved, but I'm doing little more than treading water.

After speaking with 'Dr 22 offices' at MWM, I'm meeting with a broker next Wednesday to discuss possibilities.

Why is it so difficult to make loan payments? I haven't met a dentist who is having hard time making loan payments, except on these forums every now and then.

If you truly want to be successful and financially ahead of your peers, then you would have to be open to the requirements of that success. You can't be in highly saturated dentist markets and complain about your income, when there are 95% other markets that can easily double or triple your income. You have to be willing to learn the business side of dentistry, and think like a businessman. You can't keep looking the balance on your checking account, you want to start asking yourself where I need to be in 50 years, 40 years, 30 years, and not just next 5 years, then work backwards and set goals to get yourself there.

Now... How does school debt work for you? Isn't school debt an investment? Did you pay all that cost to just buy a piece of paper (diploma) or an opportunity that will allow you to not just pay back your student loans, but buy yourself a home, car, dental offices, etc. If you don't understand this concept, then you need to rethink about why got yourself into this profession in the first place. Ask "Dr. 22 offices" why he doesn't worry about his debt anymore.

 

[jeffk805dent]

Why is it so difficult to make loan payments? I haven't met a dentist who is having hard time making loan payments, except on these forums every now and then.

If you truly want to be successful and financially ahead of your peers, then you would have to be open to the requirements of that success. You can't be in highly saturated dentist markets and complain about your income, when there are 95% other markets that can easily double or triple your income. You have to be willing to learn the business side of dentistry, and think like a businessman. You can't keep looking the balance on your checking account, you want to start asking yourself where I need to be in 50 years, 40 years, 30 years, and not just next 5 years, then work backwards and set goals to get yourself there.

Now... How does school debt work for you? Isn't school debt an investment? Did you pay all that cost to just buy a piece of paper (diploma) or an opportunity that will allow you to not just pay back your student loans, but buy yourself a home, car, dental offices, etc. If you don't understand this concept, then you need to rethink about why got yourself into this profession in the first place. Ask "Dr. 22 offices" why he doesn't worry about his debt anymore.

loans are a burden but like you said, me and other dentists have not had a difficult time paying off loans, though at one time I was paying the bare minimum. I also think like any field that requires a business-savvy to it, you have to be a type-A personality that is not risk-averse. I've noticed some type-B classmates from my school be excessively cautious about opening a practice and in spending in general, to the point it actually it affects their lives in a negative way.

 

[Cold Front]

loans are a burden but like you said, me and other dentists have not had a difficult time paying off loans, though at one time I was paying the bare minimum. I also think like any field that requires a business-savvy to it, you have to be a type-A personality that is not risk-averse. I've noticed some type-B classmates from my school be excessively cautious about opening a practice and in spending in general, to the point it actually it affects their lives in a negative way.

I agree with idea that the debt is a burden. But it's also a reality that a good number of dental students shouldn't be in dentistry in the first place. So when they enter their clinic years, dentistry becomes more clear and they have a change of heart from what they expected their career to be. So now they are stuck with huge debt, and as you said - will lead a profession with minimum risk. This has a global effect on the dental workforce nationwide. as you will see more and more of these risk-averse doctors who will not position themselves in lucrative advances in their career that would have taken care of the debt and bring more personal financial stability.

 

[jmcunnin]

I agree with idea that the debt is a burden. But it's also a reality that a good number of dental students shouldn't be in dentistry in the first place. So when they enter their clinic years, dentistry becomes more clear and they have a change of heart from what they expected their career to be. So now they are stuck with huge debt, and as you said - will lead a profession with minimum risk. This has a global effect on the dental workforce nationwide. as you will see more and more of these risk-averse doctors who will not position themselves in lucrative advances in their career that would have taken care of the debt and bring more personal financial stability.

I am a non traditional student coming from a business background, and I fully agree with you and the other poster when talking about risk averse people. I'm 28 and a lot of people in my generation are very scared to invest their money in business opportunities, stocks, etc.

Could you elaborate on your statement when you say "This has a global effect on the dental workforce nationwide"? I'm not disagreeing with you in any way, but I was hoping you could explain further.

 

[bjpenn]

Debt is real, and its a burden. I don't care who you are, but it can easily affect your treatment plan. There are a lot of dentists out there that need to pay for this or that, or used to living a certain lifestyle so they over diagnose. I think its perfectly normal to be risk averse with huge debt. You know how hard it is to owe 400-500k for student loans, and also another 500k for your practice? That's even before your new house and car. It's very common that you won't be able to pay yourself the first 2 years you open. Not paying yourself in addition to managing staff is stressful when you owe almost a $1mm. The result of this is a lot of weight gain and sleepless nights, and faster aging. However, you could do it if you want to.

 

[Cold Front]

I am a non traditional student coming from a business background, and I fully agree with you and the other poster when talking about risk averse people. I'm 28 and a lot of people in my generation are very scared to invest their money in business opportunities, stocks, etc.

Could you elaborate on your statement when you say "This has a global effect on the dental workforce nationwide"? I'm not disagreeing with you in any way, but I was hoping you could explain further.

Global effect in the sense - "all" practicing dentists across the country. You see, dental workforce has evolved over the past decade or so. Studies show more female dentists are working (which is good - most new graduates are females, and female dentists work fewer hours than male dentists on average), aging dentists (the median age of dentists has gone up, there are lot more gray hair dentists than before), fewer new graduates are opening or buying dental practices than before (my class of 115 graduated in 2010, about 15-20% own practices today, and out of those 2 in 10 opened a practice from scratch, I'm sure the stats are about the same across the country for the first 5 years in the profession), the rise of more corporate dental offices becoming recruitment hotspots for new grads (due to fear of getting themselves into more debt to open or buy a dental office), etc. The net result is a "new dynamic" of the dental workforce, which will continue to grow in that direction, particularly more debt for future graduates, and perhaps new ways for them to practice dentistry, primarily lead by the "fear of debt" above everything else, than any other dentist before.

 

[Cold Front]

Debt is real, and its a burden. I don't care who you are, but it can easily affect your treatment plan. There are a lot of dentists out there that need to pay for this or that, or used to living a certain lifestyle so they over diagnose. I think its perfectly normal to be risk averse with huge debt. You know how hard it is to owe 400-500k for student loans, and also another 500k for your practice? That's even before your new house and car. It's very common that you won't be able to pay yourself the first 2 years you open. Not paying yourself in addition to managing staff is stressful when you owe almost a $1mm. The result of this is a lot of weight gain and sleepless nights, and faster aging. However, you could do it if you want to.

The $500k dental school debt line has been crossed by few schools already, and more will join that club each year. That doesn't take into account residency either. In a decade, many grads would see $500k debt as a bargain.

 

[480640]

In a decade, many grads would see $500k debt as a bargain.

How are you so confident debt will continue to increase to ~750k and more? I think that in a decade or so the general notion that dentistry is truly not what it used to be because of the debt, will finally be present in the general population and the next ones. This will cause a decrease in the demand for dentistry as a profrssion and dental schools will be forced to lower their tuition to stay competitive. I have no statistical evidence or otherwise to extrapolate and make a factual claim, but it just seems reasonable that a debt of 3/4 of a million for an education will deter prospective applicants from applying.

 

[yappy]

How are you so confident debt will continue to increase to ~750k and more? I think that in a decade or so the general notion that dentistry is truly not what it used to be because of the debt, will finally be present in the general population and the next ones. This will cause a decrease in the demand for dentistry as a profrssion and dental schools will be forced to lower their tuition to stay competitive. I have no statistical evidence or otherwise to extrapolate and make a factual claim, but it just seems reasonable that a debt of 3/4 of a million for an education will deter prospective applicants from applying.

I disagree because the lending to students is such that any increase in tuition is countered by an increase in loan eligibility. Also, the government has introduced programs to make paying off the loans less painful [IBR] etc. I'm not sure 750k is the number but I don't see a market where people are turning down dental school seats, forgoing loan money and payback programs, such that dental school lowers their tuition.

 

[Cold Front]

How are you so confident debt will continue to increase to ~750k and more? I think that in a decade or so the general notion that dentistry is truly not what it used to be because of the debt, will finally be present in the general population and the next ones. This will cause a decrease in the demand for dentistry as a profrssion and dental schools will be forced to lower their tuition to stay competitive. I have no statistical evidence or otherwise to extrapolate and make a factual claim, but it just seems reasonable that a debt of 3/4 of a million for an education will deter prospective applicants from applying.

Dental schools will not be forced to lower their tuition, in fact, the money is so good more dental schools opened up/opening up. If there is any clue that tuition will continue to go up, here it is.

 

[480640]

I don't see the connection between increasing tuition and increase in the number of dental schools. Won't the applicant perception of the profession decrease knowing that it will be more saturated than it is at the moment? Especially now that mid-level providers are gaining territory? And won't it also decrease since corporations are making working conditions devoid of autonomy with low salaries?
I think that the demand for dental education will decrease at least noticeably primarily because of these factors and will eventually cause private schools to compete with public school tuition rates. This happened in the 70s as shown: (Full article: http://news.vin.com/VINNews.aspx?articleId=27460)

Additionally, analogous to the dental profession is law. Plenty of articles (e.g. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/business/09law.html?pagewanted=all, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/e...fall-as-costs-rise-and-jobs-are-cut.html?_r=1) elucidate their situation, "Law school applications are headed for a 30-year low, reflecting increased concern over soaring tuition, crushing student debt and diminishing prospects of lucrative employment upon graduation." Applications for dental school is clearly not at a low at the moment, but my claim is that it will be in a foreseeable future due to the exact same reasons as pointed out in the quote.

 

[Coloradoboulder]

So technically the dental field will follow in the same foot steps as Law? Are we to just watch it happen.

 

[Daneosaurus]

So technically the dental field will follow in the same foot steps as Law? Are we to just watch it happen.

Oh...I hope not.

 

[jeffk805dent]

So technically the dental field will follow in the same foot steps as Law? Are we to just watch it happen.

keep in mind it is very difficult to open a dental school. I dont have the official statistics but having students in dental clinic actually hurts the school's profits, whereas a medical school student can do a $10,000+ operation for free. While pharmacy school may have a quality education, it is much easier to open a pharmacy school because it often does not require the materials and machines needed in dental school.

Even in saturated fields there are still dental jobs (albeit less pay) but I've heard its not the same with pharmacists looking for jobs in saturated fields.

 

[Cold Front]

I don't see the connection between increasing tuition and increase in the number of dental schools. Won't the applicant perception of the profession decrease knowing that it will be more saturated than it is at the moment? Especially now that mid-level providers are gaining territory? And won't it also decrease since corporations are making working conditions devoid of autonomy with low salaries?
I think that the demand for dental education will decrease at least noticeably primarily because of these factors and will eventually cause private schools to compete with public school tuition rates. This happened in the 70s as shown: (Full article: http://news.vin.com/VINNews.aspx?articleId=27460)

Additionally, analogous to the dental profession is law. Plenty of articles (e.g. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/business/09law.html?pagewanted=all, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/e...fall-as-costs-rise-and-jobs-are-cut.html?_r=1) elucidate their situation, "Law school applications are headed for a 30-year low, reflecting increased concern over soaring tuition, crushing student debt and diminishing prospects of lucrative employment upon graduation." Applications for dental school is clearly not at a low at the moment, but my claim is that it will be in a foreseeable future due to the exact same reasons as pointed out in the quote.

There is a connection between increasing tuition and increasing number of dental schools. Tuition on average increased 5-10% annually the past 15 years, there were 9 more schools for the same period - 5 in the last 5 years. This increased the number of dentists entering the profession too by 10-20% since the turn of the century. Many schools have increased their class sizes and added international dentist seats to their programs to keep up with their cost, Boston U and Tufts are examples. Private schools like Midwestern University in AZ opened few years ago, charges close to $500k (including living) to most of their students to get a diploma, and almost doubled their class size to about 200 couple of years ago - and yet, they still have a wait list after the class is filled each year. This is not an uncommon practice in new programs, and the trend will continue to happen to existing and future programs.

Mid-level practice idea is not going to keep up with these new dental programs, because the dentist conveyor belt is producing more dentists into the market than ever before, which makes the mid-level practice graduates restricted to certain area of the country, i.e. Minnesota.

Yes, corporate dentistry benefits from these highly debt conscious new dentists by opening more chain offices for them, but that's not on any new perspective dental students agenda. Most applicants see dentistry through the senior dentists they know - who own their own practice and living a fairly good life. Probably the dentist they had to shadow for 20-40 hours to apply to dental school, but not at corporate dental chain, or the chops shops that have become a common first stop for new graduates. That's the #1 reason why they apply to dental schools, and they never take into account the changing landscape from graduating from dental school to owning your own practice. The biggest benefactor from this irony are dental schools, which continue to raise their tuition every year until a generation of regretful dentists warn future applicants to not consider dentistry as a career. Only then we could see a change in demand and cost of tuition. In the meantime, dental schools will capitalize on the current dynamics.

Now... The situation with Law Schools. There are too many law schools in this country, and most are not considered your typical programs - when you compare it to dentistry. There are evening program law schools, some are online these days, and so on. But when it comes to your ideal law schools, particularly top 30-50 programs, the tuition is rising like dental schools. Yes the overall number of applicants are down because of the many options of obtaining a law degree, but there is a big waitlist on the traditional path, specially at prestigious schools. In dentistry, the public doesn't really care where you attended for your training, but in law - it's probably the number 1 thing people lookup before they consider you as a professional - see the movie "My Cousin Vinny" to understand this concept. Also, the more prestigious a law school is, the more your resume looks good, the higher chances you will find a job, and the more you have to pay at that school for the opportunity.

Here is an example why many law schools are very similar to dental school, in terms of tuition.

http://www.lawschooltransparency.com/reform/projects/Non-Discounted-Cost/

 

[jeffk805dent]

Also, the more prestigious a law school is, the more your resume looks good, the higher chances you will find a job, and the more you have to pay at that school for the opportunity.

Here is an example why many law schools are very similar to dental school, in terms of tuition.

http://www.lawschooltransparency.com/reform/projects/Non-Discounted-Cost/

I agree with Cold Front, as unfair as this prestigious name may be. On a personal note, Cousin #1 went to University of Texas Law School (prestigious) and got a $160k job offer, Cousin #2 went to some XYZ University and is working at a smaller law firm for $65k. Both have around $150k debt.

 

[store249]

As a recent graduate of UCSF dental school, my first hand experience is that the first few years will be financially difficult. Dental salaries have not kept up with the rising cost of living here in San Francisco, especially with the influx of techies and the success of startups such as Uber. I still have around $200k of dental school debt and I have to pay more than $3000 of rent a month for a tiny one bedroom apartment. As a fairly new dentist, I am a member of the lower-middle class (financially), and we are treated as such by acquaintances, patients, and even people on the street. One time, after a long and tiring day of work, I was biking home minding my own business when a young jogging techie in a Uber t-shirt suddenly ran in front of my bike. I didn't know what happened, but there was some contact, and before I could apologize, he started calling me a bum, and punched and kicked me off my bike and then ran off mumbling about how he needs to go home and take a shower because he touched a bum or something to that effect. I think expectations that a career in dentistry, at least here in San Francisco, would be financially, or even socially rewarding should be adjusted appropriately, but at least we know that we are actually helping people with their dental health, instead of creating iPhone apps that are mostly useless, and hoping to cash out on an investor's overenthusiastic evaluations.

 

[Cold Front]

As a recent graduate of UCSF dental school, my first hand experience is that the first few years will be financially difficult. Dental salaries have not kept up with the rising cost of living here in San Francisco, especially with the influx of techies and the success of startups such as Uber. I still have around $200k of dental school debt and I have to pay more than $3000 of rent a month for a tiny one bedroom apartment. As a fairly new dentist, I am a member of the lower-middle class (financially), and we are treated as such by acquaintances, patients, and even people on the street. One time, after a long and tiring day of work, I was biking home minding my own business when a young jogging techie in a Uber t-shirt suddenly ran in front of my bike. I didn't know what happened, but there was some contact, and before I could apologize, he started calling me a bum, and punched and kicked me off my bike and then ran off mumbling about how he needs to go home and take a shower because he touched a bum or something to that effect. I think expectations that a career in dentistry, at least here in San Francisco, would be financially, or even socially rewarding should be adjusted appropriately, but at least we know that we are actually helping people with their dental health, instead of creating iPhone apps that are mostly useless, and hoping to cash out on an investor's overenthusiastic evaluations.

I too lived in a very expensive city (Boston) during dental school. The rent was ridiculous, streets were full off rude people. My school would send my class emails on how to not flash things on the streets; like an iPad or an iPhone. There were at least 3 incidents from my class, where a friend of mine was robbed and beaten when he was walking to his residence, and couple of girls attacked at a knife point to hand over their bags (with school laptops in it).

I agree. Big cities are not only expensive for new graduates, but they can also be dangerous if you are making the best out of your financial situation. That's why I moved to the Midwest; people are much nicer, crime is in remote areas, and a great cost of living standards.

If someone attacks or robs you, the best policy is to defend yourself, don't go as far as putting them back in their place - at least to the point of not getting yourself in trouble.

Great post.

 

[jeffk805dent]

I agree. Big cities are not only expensive for new graduates, but they can also be dangerous if you are making the best out of your financial situation. That's why I moved to the Midwest; people are much nicer, crime is in remote areas, and a great cost of living standards.


Great post.

dont forget Mountain West people, they're some of the nicest people I've met, outside of Canadians.

I think its an unofficial fact that the popular big cities rubs some people the wrong way in terms of how they view those people's attitudes in the big cities, unfair or not.

 

[Realitydentalstudent]

Amazing posts cold front, I agree that the lure of dental schools will die down once young dentists start defaulting on their loans. For a 500k loan, even with a 25 year repayment plan, the minimum payment would be 42k a year assuming 7% interest. Is this doable? Yes it is but new grads make mistakes all the time, finding themselves in associateships without a daily minimum, making 80k a year and being screwed over. When this occurs to a person who needs to make a minimum payment of 42k a year, things look very bleak.