I am curious how the thanksgiving rule applies in the world of the virtual cycle? I only know what this looks like on the MD/PhD side of things, but the vast majority of interview invites are coming within 2-5 weeks of the interview date. And for us, a full 30-40% of all interviews still will happen after January 1st (based on a calendar of all interviews provided by the AAMC, with about 60/80 programs participating). Even just today I got an interview for 2 weeks from now. About a third of the M1 MD/PhD students I know got the interview for the school they are attending in December or later.
What do you think? Is this attributable to the virtual format, differences in MD vs MD/PhD cycles, or both? Does this experience (most interviews being last minute/interviews extending into January and February) translate to the MD only cycle?
The Thanksgiving Rule still applies, but it's important to understand what it is. It's not the clock striking midnight and us turning into pumpkins. It's a time for reflection for those who are having no success. Just about everyone acknowledges that IIs continue to go out, even though they are definitely starting to wind down. On the MD only side, some schools will be wrapping up in December, with most finishing in January and February and a few continuing into March (and beyond).
The "vast majority" of interviews being last minute is very subjective. Five weeks is a very decent lead time, and hardly last minute. Two weeks, not so much. In my limited experience this cycle, as well as my observations from the school specific forums, the "vast majority" of IIs are not, in fact, last minute.
Virtual interviews definitely allow more schools to schedule more interviews with little advance notice, and at least one adcom has stated that her school is doing just that in order to avoid the hassle of having to deal with later cancellations from people whose plans change many weeks after an interview is scheduled. Last minute scheduling was certainly much more difficult to do when people had to make travel plans well in advance to avoid last minute air and hotel pricing, as well as to schedule multiple days off in order to attend a single interview.
That said, there is no indication that virtual interviews are extending the actual cycle. Interviews are taking place as always. The protocols still call for all schools to have issued at least as many As as they have seats by 3/15. The PTE deadline is still 4/30 at most schools. It's just that some interviews at some schools are being scheduled closer to the interview date.
Does this change the Thanksgiving Rule? That depends on what you think it means. To me, it means nothing because I would not be doing anything any differently right now whether or not I have to reapply next year. For someone with no IIs who has not been productively engaged because they were counting on being accepted this cycle, the fact that a full 30-40% of MD/PhD interviews will happen after New Years Day probably should not cause them to relax. It is estimated that MD only interviews are around 75% done (meaning scheduled), but that is just an estimate that varies from less than 50% to over 90%, depending on the school.
Bottom line - it is far from over for everyone other than those who already have an A at their dream school, but people with zero IIs right now would be wise to be thinking about areas for potential improvement in case they need to reapply. THAT is what the Thanksgiving Rule is all about, and some schools scheduling some interviews closer to the date they will occur in a virtual cycle should not change anything for people with no success to date.
