Understanding Acceptance Statistics

[StudentDoctor#1000]

I'm finishing up my senior year, planning to sit for the MCAT this May. I recently found an AAMC table listing out the acceptance statistics by state.

(Link: https://www.aamc.org/download/321466/data/factstable5.pdf)
These are the stats listed for my state, Virginia
Applied: 1,291
Accepted in-state: 268
% Accepted in-state: 20.8
Accepted out-of-state: 230
% Accepted out-of-state: 17.8
Not accepted anywhere: 793
% Not accepted anywhere: 61.4

Is it just me or does 61.4% seem REALLY high? All my friends that are premed seem to be on top of things, good enough GPA (3.6+), good MCAT (32+), and good EC's/Volunteering/Research. Are these people making up the 61.4%? I find it hard to believe that people with below a 3.0, or below a 30 on their MCAT are applying to Medical Schools. Maybe 40 or 50, but are the majority of people undesirable candidates for medical school? Or do seemingly good candidates just get rejected each year?

I don't understand what is happening lol

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[gyngyn]

Many good candidates do not employ a good strategy.

 

[Goro]

You would be surprised how many people apply to medical school who have no busy even setting foot on a medical school campus, even as a standardized patient. Ignorance is bliss and denial is more than a river in Africa.

Our wise colleague @gyngyn reports having to read applications from people with single digit MCAT scores. Not in one category....the entire exam!!!

 

[LizzyM]

Look at AMCAS Table 25. It will show you that there are many applicants who apply with below average stats that do get admitted for one reasons or another (that we can only guess) and that there is a small proportion of people with excellent stats who don't get admitted anywhere (and we can guess why but it is only a guess). Overall, and again, Table 25 as well as many others, tells the tale: about 42% of all applicants get admitted meaning that 58% don't. It seems that VA state residents may be a bit below average in proportion admitted somewhere.

 

[DocVader1990]

What don't you understand? There is a high number of applicants for a limited number of spots, and of course each medical school wants the best applicants that they can get.

 

[StudentDoctor#1000]

What don't you understand? There is a high number of applicants for a limited number of spots, and of course each medical school wants the best applicants that they can get.

Right, I do understand that. My question was directed more at the general quality of applicants in recent years. I find it hard to believe that ~50% of people applying to Medical school are grossly inadequate, but based on the adcom response to this thread, this could be very well true.

@Goro @gyngyn The thought that you would even open a file and read a single digit MCAT shows your compassion hahaha.

 

[LizzyM]

Right, I do understand that. My question was directed more at the general quality of applicants in recent years. I find it hard to believe that ~50% of people applying to Medical school are grossly inadequate, but based on the adcom response to this thread, this could be very well true.

@Goro @gyngyn The thought that you would even open a file and read a single digit MCAT shows your compassion hahaha.

They aren't all grossly inadequate. Some are very adequate but there aren't enough seats for everyone so you have to be in the top 42 percent of all applicants, taken holistically, to get in. If you are from Virginia, you need to be in the top 38.6% of all Virginia applicants. Sucks to be from Virginia.

 

[Shams al Deen]

Do those AAMC tables include DO schools for these statistics, or just US MD?

Edit: It seems like they don't include DO. This might explain some of the states with really bad matriculation numbers.

 

[gyngyn]

Do those AAMC tables include DO schools for these statistics, or just US MD?

Just LCME MD.

 

[Goro]

Just MD. AACOMAS has a separate database for DO schools.

Do those AAMC tables include DO schools for these statistics, or just US MD?

Mercifully, my wily old Admission dean has to read those, not me! I only get the good ones!
@@Goro @@gyngyn The thought that you would even open a file and read a single digit MCAT shows your compassion hahaha.

 

[StudentDoctor#1000]

They aren't all grossly inadequate. Some are very adequate but there aren't enough seats for everyone so you have to be in the top 42 percent of all applicants, taken holistically, to get in. If you are from Virginia, you need to be in the top 38.6% of all Virginia applicants. Sucks to be from Virginia.

You can say that again! My S.O. and I are both applying in the same cycle and jokingly we tell ourselves we have to move to Texas to give our future kids a good shot

 

[xffan624]

You can say that again! My S.O. and I are both applying in the same cycle and jokingly we tell ourselves we have to move to Texas to give our future kids a good shot

Yeah, but then you'd have to live in Texas. Having lived in both states, I much prefer Virginia.

 

[StudentDoctor#1000]

Yeah, but then you'd have to live in Texas. Having lived in both states, I much prefer Virginia.

Really? Not that this is the time or place...I'd really love to live in Austin, TX.

I was raised in Northern VA (like it..but it's expensive, congested, and a bit materialistic), and spent a lot of time down in Virginia beach/Norfolk area, and while I love it, some neighborhoods are a bit rough. I think Austin is affordable and safe! We definitely would not mind putting down roots there.

 

[xffan624]

Really? Not that this is the time or place...I'd really love to live in Austin, TX.

I was raised in Northern VA (like it..but it's expensive, congested, and a bit materialistic), and spent a lot of time down in Virginia beach/Norfolk area, and while I love it, some neighborhoods are a bit rough. I think Austin is affordable and safe! We definitely would not mind putting down roots there.

Ok. Austin might be the one place in Texas I'd be willing to live. Other than that, no. I grew up in Norfolk so the rough areas are part of my character. My sister lives in NoVa and I hope to live up soon enough once school is done.

 

[beachside]

Mercifully, my wily old Admission dean has to read those, not me! I only get the good ones!
@@Goro @@gyngyn The thought that you would even open a file and read a single digit MCAT shows your compassion hahaha.

I think looking at the single digit applications would be far more interesting.

 

[WedgeDawg]

They aren't all grossly inadequate. Some are very adequate but there aren't enough seats for everyone so you have to be in the top 42 percent of all applicants, taken holistically, to get in. If you are from Virginia, you need to be in the top 38.6% of all Virginia applicants. Sucks to be from Virginia.

Oh, we make up for it in other ways

 

[Lucca]

The answer was in the OP: "Seemingly good applicants are rejected every year"; corrolary: Seemingly good applicants are not necessarily good, seemingly good applicants do not necessarily apply well. If you have a strong app but decide to send it in around mid October then you are playing "Medical School Admissions Hard Mode" for no reason. I think the data is pretty clear: Most rejected applicants are otherwise perfectly capable of succeeding in medical school but for whatever reason, cosmic or legitimate, did not stand up to the adcom' examination. I know that plenty of people have no business applying but the AAMC tables make it pretty clear that the majority are good enough to finish the race but not to win it. That's why this is hard. That's why SDN exists.