USMLEworld sim exams - score predictor accurate?

[sammydoc]

i just finished both of those sim exams you can get from USMLE world - they're the 4 block ones, adn at the end it gives you an "estimate". so is that thing accurate at all?

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[baily34]

I was wondering the same thing. A little help?

 

[psychforme]

I think if you havent done any uw questions it underpredicts. If you have gone through the whole qbank it overpredicts.

 

[flyingdutchman]

I think if you havent done any uw questions it underpredicts. If you have gone through the whole qbank it overpredicts.

I agree with this. I took UWSA-1 a week ago and got a much higher score than I had anticipated, which I think was partially because I have been getting used to the UW question style. I'd like to believe the assessment but keep in mind that becoming comfortable with the "UW style" may possibly falsely inflate your score (I hope this isn't true! but that's what I'm thinking...)

 

[DrCurious]

In order to try to get a more accurate picture, I tried to rotate between tests. I did the UW assessment 1 first, then the 150 free NBME assessment, then the NBME 5, and next will do UW assessment 2, followed by another NBME. I assume if I score consistently, give or take say 5-10 points, its likely accurate.

However, I would say that if one was taking just UW assessments then it is possible that you get either an over (if you have done the qbank consistently) or under (if you are taking it as a baseline) prediction on your performance.

Overall, I'd bet that the NBME's are likely to be alittle more accurate. They are made by the source of the test after all.

 

[flyingdutchman]

Just took UWSA-2 (after getting through some technical difficulties with the internet) and thought it was about the same as the first one.

UWSA-1: 245 (1 week ago)
UWSA-2: 247 (Today)

My goal on the real deal is 240, I'm going to take an NMBE this weekend so we'll see how close the scores are. I'm hoping these assessments are pretty accurate as I'm about 2 1/2 weeks out from my test at this point.

 

[Cirrus83]

Ugh I just got rocked by the assessment I took today. I'm assuming it's overpredicting and I got a 226...which is not good because I have one week left and I'm aiming for 240+ on the real deal.
Debating whether just to shore up my weaknesses or actually try to review everything.

 

[Deferoxamine]

I questioned the value of a UWSA exam score (took UWSA1 after about ~800 questions), until I took another NBME and it fit quite nicely in my score progression:

NBME4 5/30: 227
UWSA1 6/6: 236
NBME6 6/16: 244

So even though it's apples vs. oranges, it seemed representative of my progress during my study period.

 

[bluntdissector]

I questioned the value of a UWSA exam score (took UWSA1 after about ~800 questions), until I took another NBME and it fit quite nicely in my score progression:

NBME4 5/30: 227
UWSA1 6/6: 236
NBME6 6/16: 244

So even though it's apples vs. oranges, it seemed representative of my progress during my study period.

I felt it had to have over estimated, my progression was:

NBME 5: 247 (3w out)
UWSA 1: 265 (2w out)
NBME 6: 258 (1w out)

But I'll take UWSA 2 in two days time and then report back!

 

[MountainEM]

i wish!
I have no clue.
I have always been shootin for a 220 or so, but UWORLD sim 1 gave me a 235 and test 2 a 256...? I am worried these are a lot easier than the real thing. That, or I have gotten a lot better a standarized testing than my GREs, MCATS,etc

 

[cgscribe]

I think they're helpful in VERY broad terms. My numbers under-predicted my score by a little bit, but it was nice to get some kind of idea where I stood. Just use them to give yourself a basic idea of where you stand, definitely not a "I would definitely get this score if I took it now."

 

[bluntdissector]

I felt it had to have over estimated, my progression was:

NBME 5: 247 (3w out)
UWSA 1: 265 (2w out)
NBME 6: 258 (1w out)

But I'll take UWSA 2 in two days time and then report back!

Okay, about SA 2 then:

I thought it wasn't as balanced as SA 1 or the NBME's. There were fewer easy questions than on the NBME's I've done (5 and 6) and it felt harder. There were very few behav. questions, I can't remember a single doctor-patient situation. By subject, a lot of repro, musculo and neuro, with a fair load of cardio. Little resp and gastro. I checked out to see if it was unbalanced, the % according to world are:

Behav 3.1
Bioch/Molec 15.1
Health/Diz 6.8
Anat/Embr 10.4
Hist/Cell 3.1
Micro/Imm 10.4
Path 24.0
Pharm 13.5
Phys 13.5

Strange that there was so much Health and Diz principles.

As for the score, I'd be VERY surprised if it was accurate. 4 out of the 9 sections mentioned above had my blue bars overlap with the borderline bit. Behav stretched for the far left to the far right. Comparing that with my NBME (258) makes it look like I have done much much worse, although World seems to think I'll get 265+. I really don't understand how they can think that...



Hope the breakdown helps! I'd do it since the Health/Diz was a bit of a surprise, and there is a lot of repro/musculo which some people have mentioned have featured on their tests. But I won't really trust the score...

 

[TaoistDoc]

Okay, about SA 2 then:

I thought it wasn't as balanced as SA 1 or the NBME's. There were fewer easy questions than on the NBME's I've done (5 and 6) and it felt harder. There were very few behav. questions, I can't remember a single doctor-patient situation. By subject, a lot of repro, musculo and neuro, with a fair load of cardio. Little resp and gastro. I checked out to see if it was unbalanced, the % according to world are:

Behav 3.1
Bioch/Molec 15.1
Health/Diz 6.8
Anat/Embr 10.4
Hist/Cell 3.1
Micro/Imm 10.4
Path 24.0
Pharm 13.5
Phys 13.5

Strange that there was so much Health and Diz principles.

As for the score, I'd be VERY surprised if it was accurate. 4 out of the 9 sections mentioned above had my blue bars overlap with the borderline bit. Behav stretched for the far left to the far right. Comparing that with my NBME (258) makes it look like I have done much much worse, although World seems to think I'll get 265+. I really don't understand how they can think that...



Hope the breakdown helps! I'd do it since the Health/Diz was a bit of a surprise, and there is a lot of repro/musculo which some people have mentioned have featured on their tests. But I won't really trust the score...

Just take the damn test already, you'll do fine.

 

[bluntdissector]

Just take the damn test already, you'll do fine.

Lol, I'm taking it in 4 days. Just saying that I think World's SA's overpredicts, which is what the OP was wondering!

 

[theman1990]

They are only accurate if you do well... People who do well on practices but bomb the real one DON'T TELL ANYONE.

 

[GujuMD]

Ugh I just got rocked by the assessment I took today. I'm assuming it's overpredicting and I got a 226...which is not good because I have one week left and I'm aiming for 240+ on the real deal.
Debating whether just to shore up my weaknesses or actually try to review everything.

i just took the U world SA 1 and got 226 too. my aim is 230+....so i'd like to believe that the prediction is accurate but i think it is overpredicting. planning to do a NBME in two days. test is on the 18th...

 

[fergustsi]

i just took the U world SA 1 and got 226 too. my aim is 230+....so i'd like to believe that the prediction is accurate but i think it is overpredicting. planning to do a NBME in two days. test is on the 18th...

clinical review says they underestimate. i plugged in a 226 and shoots back a 236 prediction. take that for what its worth.

 

[bluntdissector]

clinical review says they underestimate. i plugged in a 226 and shoots back a 236 prediction. take that for what its worth.

Ja, but they also think the max is 300 instead of 265.

Prob it's fairly good if you don't recognize the pics from world.

 

[ENThopeful]

what do the percentages correlate to with the final score? im half way through and getting too curious. say an arbitrary 75% (thats not what i have), what will that earn you in terms of final score?

 

[fergustsi]

what do the percentages correlate to with the final score? im half way through and getting too curious. say an arbitrary 75% (thats not what i have), what will that earn you in terms of final score?

low 60s = low 220s high 210s

 

[ENThopeful]

just finished UWSA1 the test and yea there are 1-2 concepts that repeat the Qbank. but there are a ton of new questions including concepts i've never heard of, so id do them if you were looking for extra things to widen your knowledge base.

im very satisfied with the score i got and am hoping that there is some inkling of truth in the score! lets hope...

 

[Currantjelly]

People are far too infatuated with scores. The only score that matters is the real exam. Focus on understanding the materials being presented, not the score. The UW self assessment I did had several concepts that were directly tested on my real exam. It was a very worthwhile use of my time. I also agree with the above statement that the vast majority of the UW self assessment had completely novel material and questions compared to the Qbank.

 

[ENThopeful]

People are far too infatuated with scores. The only score that matters is the real exam. Focus on understanding the materials being presented, not the score. The UW self assessment I did had several concepts that were directly tested on my real exam. It was a very worthwhile use of my time. I also agree with the above statement that the vast majority of the UW self assessment had completely novel material and questions compared to the Qbank.

im only infatuated with scores cause residencies are... i would love to just learn for enjoyment and be able to be innovative but we are in a time in medicine where scores matter too much unfortunately... but thats another discussion.

 

[apples1212]

I heard they are always adjusting the algorithm for the scores. Anyone have any thoughts on the predictive value this year?

 

[2001bmw330xi]

I heard they are always adjusting the algorithm for the scores. Anyone have any thoughts on the predictive value this year?

Ha i guess we'll have to wait and see. But if the general pool of students is reporting amazing scores like the dynamos here (no offense to any of you guys, I just wish I was as smart as you all!) theN i have a bad feeling that I'm about to get rocked by the scale, lol.