UWSA Overpredicts : A Myth?

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Redpancreas

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So...so many people confidently believe UWSA is an over prediction that most USMLE followers have heard the general hearsay that UWSA Overpredicts by 15 points. Obviously there's nothing that has been published and self reporting/anecdotal evidence that we hear is all we can base these things on.

In my group of friends, there's 4 I know who have taken UWSA's, taken NBMEs, and the real deal and had told me their scores. All four of these people have told me that their UWSA (albeit taken a week+ before the actual thing was an accurate predictor of their score.) Now in my experience my NBME average is about 15 points below my UWSA score. However, According to the real deal score it seemed more likely that a UWSA 240 3-4 weeks out is more likely than a NBME 18 226 10 days out if my final score was 252. All my friends have noted that UWSAs are at their score or OP/UP their scores by 5 points or so. Admittedly most say NBMEs are just as accurate while one said NBME under predicts (which also happened for me).

And the end of the day, nothing discretely productive is coming out of this thread but itd be interesting to hear everyone's opinions and if many people find NBME's to OVerpredict maybe that will give those with low NBMEs hope and strength to keep at it.

Overall i liked my actual exam more even tho I guessed alot because it felt more like UWorld guessing than straight up guess and move on NBME guessing.

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