Wall Street Journal: The Hidden Student-Debt Bomb

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BMBiology

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You have several members on this forum to thank for ruining it for everybody else but I am hopeful that changes are coming!

http://www.wsj.com/articles/jason-delisle-the-hidden-student-debt-bomb-1419983516

The Hidden Student-Debt Bomb


Under the radar, maneuvers to avoid paying off loans are surging. ‘Forbearance’ has hit the $125 billion mark.

It is time to re-evaluate how we measure the performance of student-loan programs—particularly whether borrowers are or are not meeting their obligations. The traditional measures of nonrepayment—delinquencies and defaults—might be fine for most types of loans, but not for outstanding student loans, nearly all of which are held or backed by the federal government. Lawmakers have provided students with options that let them punt on repayment without triggering delinquency or default. Lately, students have been availing themselves of those options at rising levels.

The forbearance benefit, for example, lets borrowers postpone payments for up to three years. By law, loan-servicing companies have a lot of discretion to grant forbearances, and getting one usually takes only a phone call on the part of the borrower. Some borrowers might have to complete a simple form and meet a payment-to-income test. But overall it is the easiest and fastest way for a borrower to suspend student-loan payments.

Forbearance can also cure the delinquency status on a loan, at least on paper. A borrower who misses a few payments, and is likely to miss more, will be informed by his loan-servicing company that he can obtain a forbearance right away. Payments cease and the loan is put in good standing. When the loan finally comes due, however, the monthly payment will be higher than the payment the borrower originally found too difficult to pay, thanks to accruing interest.

Forbearances are thus a double-edged sword. They help borrowers keep their loans in good standing, but they also mean borrowers aren’t making progress on paying down their debts—just the opposite. Enrollments in forbearances are really a negative indicator in the federal loan program, much like delinquency and default.

That is why the latest figures from the Education Department that show steady increases in forbearances are so alarming. Loan balances in forbearance were about 12.5% of those in repayment in 2006. In 2013, they were 13.3%. Today they are 16%, or $125 billion of the $778 billion in repayment.

If student-loan defaults exhibited that kind of growth it would make national headlines. Forbearance growth goes unmentioned, yet it looks a lot like a default given that the borrower isn’t making payments.

Another option is income-based repayment plans, which allow borrowers to suspend or reduce payments on their loans and will also cure a severely delinquent loan. The mechanics of these plans are a little complicated, but for borrowers with incomes below 150% of poverty, payments are zero. Borrowers who earn more than that make payments between 1% and 15% of their incomes. After 10, 20 or 25 years, depending on the program, the government forgives any outstanding balances and taxpayers eat the loss.

For many borrowers, income-based repayment works like long-term forbearance, or better if their debt is forgiven. Borrowers might have their payments suspended, or lowered to the point that they will never fully repay the loan before the outstanding balance is forgiven. In some cases the payments may not even cover the interest that accrues each month. The Obama administration estimated in 2012 that the average amount forgiven in income-based repayment plans will be $41,000 per borrower.

The Obama administration greatly expanded benefits under income-based repayment plans in recent years and has launched efforts to promote them. Enrollments are growing rapidly and now stand at an all-time high. Some 24% of Federal Direct Loan Program balances ($115 billion) that have come due are enrolled in the two most generous plans, Income-Based Repayment and Pay As You Earn. That is up from 14% a little more than a year ago. The number of borrowers using the plans has doubled over that time, to 2.2 million.

Despite more borrowers taking advantage of benefits to suspend and lower their payments, the share of borrowers in default is still trending upward. It now stands at 19.8% of borrowers whose loans have come due—some 7.1 million borrowers with $103 billion in outstanding balances. That’s the highest share since the Education Department began making the statistic available in 2013, and given other trends, it probably is a record high.

These trends are troubling because the U.S. economy has been improving for some time. Yet fewer and fewer borrowers are repaying their federal student loans. For those who do make payments, more of them are paying too little to retire the debt they took on.

This all makes sense, however, when you realize that the student-loan program has been designed to achieve two political goals: Loans should be available to any student, at any school, pursuing any credential; and student debt is bad and burdensome, so it should be easy for borrowers not to repay.

Based on these goals, the program is performing quite well for students and the institutions whose coffers swell under such loose lending standards. Loan issuance has grown rapidly in recent years while repayment rates have declined steadily. From the perspective of the taxpayers who must ultimately finance these liabilities, however, the federal student-loan program is performing badly and steadily getting worse.

Mr. Delisle is the director of the Federal Education Budget Project at the New America Foundation, a public-policy institute in Washington, D.C.

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Thanks for this post. This is a huge problem. Many students are now entering medical school, pharmacy school while taking out full loans plus and not expecting to pay them. This issue will come to head soon enough because taxpayers can't simply eat all of these loans. Some people were trying to indicate that IBR does not increase government shortfalls, but that is clearly not the case.
 
Thanks for this post. This is a huge problem. Many students are now entering medical school, pharmacy school while taking out full loans plus and not expecting to pay them. This issue will come to head soon enough because taxpayers can't simply eat all of these loans. Some people were trying to indicate that IBR does not increase government shortfalls, but that is clearly not the case.

Instead of maxing out the credit cards, people are just maxing out their student loans. Easy access to money. Let the taxpayers pay the bill. The people who are taking advantages of these programs are not your typical college dropout since there is a max to how much you can borrow for undergrad but they are well educated working professionals. Just like when lawyers declared bankruptcy in the 70s just to avoid paying their student loans.
 
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Wealth transfer to academia & big banks and to the underclass
 
The analysts are already predicting congress will change income based repayment in 2015:

"Republicans will pass a budget reconciliation bill that would allow them to make changes to income-based repayment and eliminate Subsidized Stafford loans."

http://www.edcentral.org/15-higher-education-predictions-2015/

Not particularly sure which side of the aisle you're on. From a moral standpoint, if I were doing forbearance repeatedly, would I care? Nah. Honestly I'd pay more attention to what my stool looked like in the toilet. Education increase 300-500% in less than a decade, for what reason? Did I have a say so in that during that decade? No. I also didn't pick a 6.5% interest rate on 200k student loans... mortgage rates are 2/3 that.

My point is, when things are "valued" generally there is a reasonable price. The education "Market" has decided to make most unreasonable and we're all getting screwed. They are no different from any other industry. Funny how oil prices were $107 a barrel 3-4 months ago, now it's $53. Valuations of things change all the time, and the truth is, a lot of people get left with a bag of $hit that they have no control over... so either they get screwed, or you can screw the other party.

I guess in short... I dont feel sorry for government in terms of student loan situation. They need drastic reform. They've publicly over-capitalized on their people, and it's just wrong. Lol but I'm just being a contrarian view right now...
 
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i wish we could just put the institution on the hook for their associated student loan defaults or "forgiveness". Bet you would see tuition come back down, or other admission policy changes, if they had skin in the game on some of their risky investments.
 
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Better question: how much of Apples revenue also came from students/parents buying "college supplies" with student loan money?
0 from me. Never bought a single Apple products because I know their 300% profit margin on anything Apple from mediocre device. Only idiots buy Apple.

But obviously, marketing works, so everyone and their mom want iRipoff.
 
The government tried to help but instead it created a bubble. Schools got greedy and kept on raising tuition. Students got greedy too and borrowed money to live in a nice apt, to buy a new car, to go on expensive vacation.

Now who is going to pay for it? Not the schools since they already got paid. My guess right now is that the government will make income based repayment less generous especially for well paid professionals. This makes the most sense since they have the most debt and they can afford to pay more.
 
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You have several members on this forum to thank for ruining it for everybody else but I am hopeful that changes are coming!
Seriously, you should consider being a sleazy politician.

If you actually peruse the author's website (edcentral) you can easily find out what is actually behind the high default rates. As the article states, $103 billion (including accrued interest) for 7.1 million borrowers. Guess what the average loan balance is for people in default?

~$14,600.

With such a low balance, do you really think the folks in default are mostly graduate students? And who would actually default when there are forbearance options? In fact, default rates are actually LOWER the HIGHER the amount borrowed. Seems completely counterintuitive.

But EdCentral has the answer to that too, these defaults are mostly due to greedy for-profit schools for worthless certificates at 21% followed by 11% in public/community colleges. Default is only around 7% for private non-profits. The website speculates that most of these folks were marginal students anyways and dropped out/flunked out. Since they probably have crappy job prospects then, they probably decided to give up and just default.

And guess what the default rate is for graduate students? Around 6%.

Still, it's quite disturbing the default rates keep rising. Because IMHO, people who simply default have probably given up and it's unlikely anything will be recovered.

Forbearance information is harder to come by. I found some 2013 information so I estimate that the $125 billion has an average balance of $30K across some 4.2 million borrowers. Since the balances are higher I'll speculate that these are people who more likely completed degrees but may have trouble getting employed. I believe the key difference is they are in forbearance because they are still holding out hope to eventually pay off their loans.

So if you want a real solution to this debt bomb that the article addresses (defaults/forbearances), the data suggests limiting the loans given to greedy for-profit institutions and the worthless certificates they hand out followed by the crappier community colleges.
 
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Why does it matter that the default is $14,600 per person? The point is 7.1 millions or 20% are defaulting on their student loans and they have a balance of $103 billions. In addition, another 16% have a balance of $150 billions and it is in forbearance. Even with income based repayment, less than 2/3 are actively paying back their student loans. And this doesn't even include private student loans.

Just to give you an idea...only 10% defaulted on their mortgage when the housing bubble finally popped. At least a mortgage is a secure loan so a house can be sold to pay the debt, unlike an education.

This is just a tip of the iceberg. IBR/PAYE didn't get popular until the last few years. Because of these forgiveness programs, people think they can borrow as much as they want and the government will pay the bill regardless if they can afford to pay back their loan or not.

The bottom line is changes are coming.
 
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Pretty sure HEA amendments can't be made via budget reconciliation, but eh what do I know.
 
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My guess right now is that the government will make income based repayment less generous especially for well paid professionals. This makes the most sense since they have the most debt and they can afford to pay more.

The very definition of affordability would have to be redefined. Currently, any standard 10yr payment that exceeds the IBR formula (15% of gross income above the 150% of the FPL threshold) is defined as "financial hardship."

It never mattered if someone made $50k/yr or $500k/yr, what mattered was the relationship of the above equation to the standard payment, which is directly proportional to their level of debt.

So the notion of a six-figure paid professional being able to "afford" a student loan payment is an incomplete idea without considering the level of debt, something the authors of CCRA already thought about.

Basically, congress would have to reverse this logic built into the HEA and redistribute wealth to poorer people by making the benefits progressive while screwing lawyers over, which is absolutely what the Republican Party wants to do all day every day.
 
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Why does it matter that the default is $14,600 per person? The point is 7.1 millions or 20% are defaulting on their student loans and they have a balance of $103 billions. In addition, another 16% have a balance of $150 billions and it is in forbearance. Even with income based repayment, less than 2/3 are actively paying back their student loans. And this doesn't even include private student loans.

Just to give you an idea...only 10% defaulted on their mortgage when the housing bubble finally popped. At least a mortgage is a secure loan so a house can be sold to pay the debt, unlike an education.

This is just a tip of the iceberg. IBR/PAYE didn't get popular until the last few years. Because of these forgiveness programs, people think they can borrow as much as they want and the government will pay the bill regardless if they can afford to pay back their loan or not.

The bottom line is changes are coming.
I sure have you pegged as a sleazy politician accurately. Why bother with all these FACTS when you can just spew baseless rhetoric. I'd hate to see you practice pharmacy like this, "Hey, this person is sick let's medicate! Who cares what his renal clearance is!!!"

New America has good ideas for addressing student loan issues but since you are so biased against any forgiveness I'm sure even their ideas would piss you off. I'll summarize New America's positions:

1) Grandfathering of PSLF and other forgiveness for current and past borrowers
2) Keeping 20 year forgiveness INTACT (but extending it to 25 years for higher balances)
3) Making all loan forgiveness TAX-FREE

New American does have some good ideas. I like these:

1) Increase PAYE to 15% of income for people with higher salaries
2) Base repayment on income with no cap (the 10 year standard repayment plan serves as a cap)
3) Eliminate exclusion of spouse's income for calculating payments

Unfortunately, they really don't offer any good ideas for modifying PSLF. A limit of $57.5K would be eliminate any financial incentive to go into public service for high balance graduates so they are free to pursue any employment and just get forgiveness at 20/25 years.

I think PSLF should grant benefits for EVERY year of public service. Maybe make all student loan interest payments tax deductible when in public service plus make forgiveness occur at year 15 (for low salaries vs. 20) and 20 (for high salaries vs. 25).

In summary, I think both grandfathering, forgiveness in some form, and future tax free loan forgiveness are done deals.
 
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I think PSLF should grant benefits for EVERY year of public service. Maybe make all student loan interest payments tax deductible when in public service plus make forgiveness occur at year 15 (for low salaries vs. 20) and 20 (for high salaries vs. 25).

I don't know if it was New America that floated this idea, but one of the white papers I read (I think @BMBiology might have posted it at some point), proposed having loans forgiven every year at ~10% of the loan amount until year 10, or even 25% at the appropriate interval.

Gotta take all these "think tanks" with a grain of salt though, most of them putting these ideas/papers out there are conservative-leaning and represent one voice in the cacophony of student loan repayment politics.

I found another white paper by a clearly pro-attorney group that showed IBR/PSLF increased justice for minorities....I'll let you think about that for a minute.
 
In summary, I think both grandfathering, forgiveness in some form, and future tax free loan forgiveness are done deals.

Hey hey hey hey, don't jinx it. Eggs are not in basket just yet! I'll call it a done deal when I see "ZERO" on my student loan statement in 2022.
 
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I don't know if it was New America that floated this idea, but one of the white papers I read (I think @BMBiology might have posted it at some point), proposed having loans forgiven every year at ~10% of the loan amount until year 10, or even 25% at the appropriate interval.

Well, bro I'll be right behind you in 2023! :D

I know some Senator floated the idea of a forgiveness in portions from year 1-10. I gave it no chance because if anything it was even MORE generous than PSLF at 100% all at once.

But it did get me thinking that the one thing PSLF lacks is a continued incentive to stay in public service which is the basis for my idea above.

Continued unlimited forgiveness at year 10 seems too good but any limit like $57,500 is worthless for others. Even though I am certain to be grandfathered and my debt wipe at year 10, I am still interested for my kids and future Parent PLUS loans.

I think politically, getting tax free forgiveness after 20-25 years will be acceptable. And consolidating after my last kid leaves college and paying ICR for 25 years is still projected to be a good deal.
 
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