Curious about financial literacy of other psychiatrists ; )

[Merovinge]

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The meta hasn't changed, it's parental anxiety that has changed significantly. These consultants do very little that can't be figured out by just talking to other parents (or these days, using Chat GPT). Consultants are alleviating parental anxiety, nothing more. And their results are mediocre. I have an uncle who's very wealthy (like lower end of mid 8 figures net worth). Was at a gathering he hosted where there were many parents of his similar socioeconomic background who were talking about college consultants they'd dropped 100k+ on and were raving about how helpful they were in getting their kids into great colleges. And the colleges were....Northwestern, Wash U, Tufts, Carnegie Melon, etc. All good school, sure, but if I was paying 100k+ for a consultant, my kids better be getting into Harvard/Stanford/MIT. They can't guarantee that because no matter how you slice it, there's a finite amount of things that can be done to maximize your chances of getting into a top school and those things are relatively straightforward.

All of the schools you mentioned are ranked top 20 (with the exception of Tufts) and sport 8-12% admission rates. I'm not sure if this is just due to some doctor's backgrounds (i.e. coming from money and always being top 1% academically), but it's a huge accomplishment to be accepted into a top 20 American university. Even with immense privilege, most kids are not getting accepted into top 20 universities. I cannot even begin to imagine how many parents would pay $100k to ensure their kid was accepted into a top 20 university. If you wanted to get your child accepted based on raw donation it would cost a factor of magnitude+ from what these consultants are charging.

 

[Atreides]

All of the schools you mentioned are ranked top 20 (with the exception of Tufts) and sport 8-12% admission rates. I'm not sure if this is just due to some doctor's backgrounds (i.e. coming from money and always being top 1% academically), but it's a huge accomplishment to be accepted into a top 20 American university. Even with immense privilege, most kids are not getting accepted into top 20 universities. I cannot even begin to imagine how many parents would pay $100k to ensure their kid was accepted into a top 20 university. If you wanted to get your child accepted based on raw donation it would cost a factor of magnitude+ from what these consultants are charging.

So two things.

One, those rates are misleading. For applicants who've checked off the normal boxes (high GPA, high SAT, rigorous high school load, reasonable ECs, etc), the acceptance rate to these schools is upwards of 50%. The odds of getting into at least one top 20 school is likely bordering on 99%, especially for applicants who are applying early decision to their top school. Wash U has a 25% admission rate for early decision applicants, similar to other schools which prioritize ED applicants. I have many, many friends from high school (public, nothing fancy) who got into all those schools and similar without going crazy. And yes, I know that college has gotten more competitive since then but I have plenty of family friends who've applied and gotten into similar colleges more recently and again, they're not doing anything exceptional. Take plenty of AP classes, get A's in them, score high on your ACT/SAT, excel in 2-3 extracurriculars, and make sure to do some type of volunteering-like activity.

The second thing is, what makes you think the consultant actually made a meaningful impact on college admission for those kids? The assumption you're making is that these kids would not have gotten into those colleges without the consultant. I don't find that plausible, especially for kids who are obviously coming from backgrounds where they're undoubtedly getting tutoring, test prep, etc.

Not even getting into whether, outside of the top 5-6 colleges, going to a top 20 college is worth it (you can see my previous posts on the topic).

 

[Merovinge]

So two things.

One, those rates are misleading. For applicants who've checked off the normal boxes (high GPA, high SAT, rigorous high school load, reasonable ECs, etc), the acceptance rate to these schools is upwards of 50%. The odds of getting into at least one top 20 school is likely bordering on 99%, especially for applicants who are applying early decision to their top school. Wash U has a 25% admission rate for early decision applicants, similar to other schools which prioritize ED applicants. I have many, many friends from high school (public, nothing fancy) who got into all those schools and similar without going crazy. And yes, I know that college has gotten more competitive since then but I have plenty of family friends who've applied and gotten into similar colleges more recently and again, they're not doing anything exceptional. Take plenty of AP classes, get A's in them, score high on your ACT/SAT, excel in 2-3 extracurriculars, and make sure to do some type of volunteering-like activity.

The second thing is, what makes you think the consultant actually made a meaningful impact on college admission for those kids? The assumption you're making is that these kids would not have gotten into those colleges without the consultant. I don't find that plausible, especially for kids who are obviously coming from backgrounds where they're undoubtedly getting tutoring, test prep, etc.

Not even getting into whether, outside of the top 5-6 colleges, going to a top 20 college is worth it (you can see my previous posts on the topic).

This is an inherently contradictory statement. How can the people who most want to go to a school have around 25% admission rates for ED but then you state that strong applicants have 50% admission rates. It is not the case that all kids will have all of: high GPA, high standardized test score, rigorous high school load, excel in extracurriculars, and have time to volunteer. Are you actually reading out loud what you are typing? You are describing the top 1ish% of college applicants.

I don't have any data nor am I sure anyone does on if the consultants are make meaningful impacts, I can see a world in which they and a world in which they don't. It is clearly the case that connections at universities can change your chance of admission and that some people do have a better view behind the curtain of what universities are actually using to judge applicants.

To say that outside of the top 5-6 colleges does not impact someone's life (which is leaving out the majority of Ivys and Ivy+ schools by definition) is certainly not supported by the data.

https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CollegeAdmissions_Paper.pdf

 

[Stagg737]

It is not the case that all kids will have all of: high GPA, high standardized test score, rigorous high school load, excel in extracurriculars, and have time to volunteer. Are you actually reading out loud what you are typing? You are describing the top 1ish% of college applicants.

Not all kids will have this, but I think this is far more common than you’d think. It’s definitely NOT just the top 1%. Probably closer to top 10% of all applicants based on when I did admissions work. I guess that because probably 60-70% of applicants where I went checked those boxes. Checking all the things you list is the a minimum expectation for people applying to elite schools and desired for most solid schools. Many people apply to top schools thinking just a high ACT/SAT or a 4.0 is enough to get in, and it’s just not. That said having those should get you in to some top school if you apply to enough and know how to write secondaries.

Also, keep in mind top applicants are going to apply to multiple top schools. I applied to probably 15 schools way back when including Northwestern, Uchicago, WashU, Michigan, and John’s Hopkins along with some solid state schools (Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue to name a few). Only places I got rejected were U Chicago and Northwestern and largely got rejected from Northwestern because I accidentally applied to their accelerated pre-med program. Had friends with worse apps than mine get accepted there.

IMO consultants are only worthwhile if a kid wants to get into a specific elite school and the consultant has knowledge of exactly what that specific school wants and a track record to prove it. Not every school looks for the same thing despite what many people think, and it can actually vary significantly even within different schools/programs at the same university.

 

[TexasPhysician]

To say that outside of the top 5-6 colleges does not impact someone's life (which is leaving out the majority of Ivys and Ivy+ schools by definition) is certainly not supported by the data.

https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CollegeAdmissions_Paper.pdf

It is really hard to eliminate the confounding factor that the majority of those doing really well from the Top 10ish schools compared to large public state U isn’t because of the parents providing the biggest influence. The average parents of children from Top 10 schools have more connections and more wealth than average public state U parents.

Comparing my life to my ex-gf. I’m going from typical state U to med school then building a practice. Ex-gf family is wealthier by far. Despite much better standardized scores, gpa, and everything else than her, she ended up at a top 20ish private school with a name everyone recognizes. We end up at the same med school. Had our lives not been med school, she has $ and connections that I don’t. If she had chosen finance, she could have walked into a family job at $500K+ starting out. She could have barely graduated with a terrible gpa, and it wouldn’t matter. The job is hers. I couldn’t.

How much does this affect how top schools average much higher pay than state U? In Texas, graduating top 10% at a low-income high school, opens up automatic acceptance into Texas A&M. No connections and possibly no one in the family ever graduating college. What percentage of said kids end up at Harvard instead? I bet much lower.

My ex-gf could have significantly skewed the data. Her entry salary could have been easily 5x times the average salary at state U year 1 and 25x a few years in. Elite families aren’t opening up their tax situations to help these studies.

Becoming good friends with someone similar to her in undergrad could also improve future outcome by opening jobs. A higher percentage of wealthy friends can lead to more opportunities. A physician friend of mine attended a family orientation at Harvard, and the father next to him was a billionaire.

Does the average Ivy League student end up on average more successful early on than the equivalent at state U? Absolutely. I’d argue that the name of the school or the education obtained actually provided no significant difference by itself. The family and creating bonds amongst powerful families is the primary factor - my hypothesis based on what I’ve seen.

 

[clausewitz2]

Speaking as someone who stumbled into a very name brand university in the early oughts with the most half-assed and haphazard application process imaginable (I had no idea what I was doing, applied to literally three schools), I am so glad I don't have to go through the process now.

 

[Merovinge]

It is really hard to eliminate the confounding factor that the majority of those doing really well from the Top 10ish schools compared to large public state U isn’t because of the parents providing the biggest influence. The average parents of children from Top 10 schools have more connections and more wealth than average public state U parents.

Comparing my life to my ex-gf. I’m going from typical state U to med school then building a practice. Ex-gf family is wealthier by far. Despite much better standardized scores, gpa, and everything else than her, she ended up at a top 20ish private school with a name everyone recognizes. We end up at the same med school. Had our lives not been med school, she has $ and connections that I don’t. If she had chosen finance, she could have walked into a family job at $500K+ starting out. She could have barely graduated with a terrible gpa, and it wouldn’t matter. The job is hers. I couldn’t.

How much does this affect how top schools average much higher pay than state U? In Texas, graduating top 10% at a low-income high school, opens up automatic acceptance into Texas A&M. No connections and possibly no one in the family ever graduating college. What percentage of said kids end up at Harvard instead? I bet much lower.

My ex-gf could have significantly skewed the data. Her entry salary could have been easily 5x times the average salary at state U year 1 and 25x a few years in. Elite families aren’t opening up their tax situations to help these studies.

Becoming good friends with someone similar to her in undergrad could also improve future outcome by opening jobs. A higher percentage of wealthy friends can lead to more opportunities. A physician friend of mine attended a family orientation at Harvard, and the father next to him was a billionaire.

Does the average Ivy League student end up on average more successful early on than the equivalent at state U? Absolutely. I’d argue that the name of the school or the education obtained actually provided no significant difference by itself. The family and creating bonds amongst powerful families is the primary factor - my hypothesis based on what I’ve seen.

I think almost everyone agrees the networking effects are part of what increases earnings, but top university degrees are social proof in and of themselves to a significant portion of the population. I spend a lot of time in immigrant/2nd generation circles and I cannot tell how you immeasurably different those individuals feel about someone with a degree from an Ivy versus myself with a degree from a good state school. There is a belief (in some circles) that anyone who can get the ivy degree is just inherently better than anyone else in the population regardless of virtually any other data that can be provided. Even as someone who came from an anti-1% bent as a kid/young adult and proudly have graduated with my public university BS & MD, I still stop and look longer at CV's when they have Ivy+s on them. Because I know real people who have gone to those schools, and frankly they are freakishly remarkable. I am sure there are people who have gone there that aren't freakishly remarkable, but there are a lot that are.

If your kid is Ivy+ material, it's pretty hard to argue you wouldn't do anything legal and in your power to help them get in. Anyone who is saying otherwise I want to re-post here after your children complete the college application cycle.

 

[FlowRate]

I think almost everyone agrees the networking effects are part of what increases earnings, but top university degrees are social proof in and of themselves to a significant portion of the population. I spend a lot of time in immigrant/2nd generation circles and I cannot tell how you immeasurably different those individuals feel about someone with a degree from an Ivy versus myself with a degree from a good state school. There is a belief (in some circles) that anyone who can get the ivy degree is just inherently better than anyone else in the population regardless of virtually any other data that can be provided. Even as someone who came from an anti-1% bent as a kid/young adult and proudly have graduated with my public university BS & MD, I still stop and look longer at CV's when they have Ivy+s on them. Because I know real people who have gone to those schools, and frankly they are freakishly remarkable. I am sure there are people who have gone there that aren't freakishly remarkable, but there are a lot that are.

If your kid is Ivy+ material, it's pretty hard to argue you wouldn't do anything legal and in your power to help them get in. Anyone who is saying otherwise I want to re-post here after your children complete the college application cycle.

Agreed as far as I think the true top-20ish schools are potentially actually worth the cost (thinking of how physicians families usually have to pay close to the actual COA) for the various benefits they confer. Quality of education is the least of those differentiators. Otherwise go to the highest value undergrad possible (usually whatever in-state U.)

I also agree, having myself known hundreds of people who went to top undergrads (med school and residency cohorts), the credential is a genuine threshold/selection signifier. (Most are genuinely smart and talented humans.)

 

[Atreides]

I think almost everyone agrees the networking effects are part of what increases earnings, but top university degrees are social proof in and of themselves to a significant portion of the population. I spend a lot of time in immigrant/2nd generation circles and I cannot tell how you immeasurably different those individuals feel about someone with a degree from an Ivy versus myself with a degree from a good state school. There is a belief (in some circles) that anyone who can get the ivy degree is just inherently better than anyone else in the population regardless of virtually any other data that can be provided. Even as someone who came from an anti-1% bent as a kid/young adult and proudly have graduated with my public university BS & MD, I still stop and look longer at CV's when they have Ivy+s on them. Because I know real people who have gone to those schools, and frankly they are freakishly remarkable. I am sure there are people who have gone there that aren't freakishly remarkable, but there are a lot that are.

If your kid is Ivy+ material, it's pretty hard to argue you wouldn't do anything legal and in your power to help them get in. Anyone who is saying otherwise I want to re-post here after your children complete the college application cycle.

Not hard to argue at all. In fact, it's the reality that's far more widespread than you realize. There are different sub-cultures among 2nd generation immigrants. Ivy league degrees did not carry much weight in my parents' social circles growing up, nor in mine currently. I got into several Ivys and tier 2 schools (including all the ones I mentioned earlier). So did many of my friends. Almost all of us went to a state school instead. We came from well-off enough families that we didn't qualify for any need-based financial aid but not from rich families where dropping six figures a year on a college education was nothing.

In that peer group who went to a state school, we have several physicians, corporate lawyers, MBB consultants, CPA's, and people in tech. I don't think our paths would have been much different had we gone to Northwestern or Wash U or Carnegie Mellon instead. Ironically, one of the few of my friends who decided to go to a big name undergrad (Stanford for CS) ended up in a career path where neither his degree nor the prestigious undergrad name carry any weight (owns a BBQ joint, many of his employees don't even realize he's been to college).

I've interacted with plenty of people who've been to Ivy league and top tier undergrads, med schools, residencies, fellowships, etc, as well as reputable state schools. There's no group I'd say is "freakishly remarkable." Great, intelligent people across all of them, but none that I'd say wow me any more than equally great and intelligent people from other institutions. The Harvard and Stanford and Northwestern undergrads who went to med school with me weren't the top of the class.

I'm not blind to the benefits big name institutions have on CV's, and in certain career paths, those benefits can make an outsize impact. But those benefits rapidly diminish as you get down the totem pole.

 

[FlowRate]

MBB consultants

That's the most impressive to pull off from a random state U. But higher end TX, CA, etc. state schools are a different thing (not sure what state you're referring to.)

 

[Atreides]

That's the most impressive to pull off from a random state U. But higher end TX, CA, etc. state schools are a different thing (not sure what state you're referring to.)

ASU and Mizzou, so good schools but not talking about Berkeley or Ann Arbor or Chapel Hill level.

 

[FatherPsychiatry]

I now understand why people love watching sports. I have been beating the S&P500 and frankly am accepting to take some risk as long as I don't lag too far behind it. But I watch my portfolio like how people cheer their sports teams on. Beating the index consistently for 2 decades is a bit more common than I originally estimated. I got some things squirreled away securely (so there is a bottom I know I won't fall below), it is a little joy I engage in. Go Robinhood!!! (jk....sorta...). Just at least hit the longterm investment threshold to avoid too much tax, duck out during some winnings and put back in index. But that's just me, not giving any financial advice here : P.

Fun thread on the emergency med subforum I read through:

Thread 'Cyanide’s step by step guide to beating index investing with high probability'

Jan 11, 2026

Alright….i keep getting asked about options and things to read and how to get started. I’m creating this thread so i can just refer people to it.

Here’s a step by step guide specifically outlining my exact current strategy.

Step1: educate yourself

Learn some back ground and understand what it means to sell a put. Here’s one web page that you need to read, it teaches you everything you need to know:

Selling Puts: The Complete Guide for Finding and Managing Great Put Selling Trades (No Opt In Required)

Read the above very long page at least 2 times. That’s 1 day worth of work.


Step 2: open a taxable...

• cyanide12345678
• Replies: 64
• Forum: Emergency Medicine

• 
• 

Basically, emergency med doctor posts some fancy sounding trading strategy to beat index investing regularly. Multiple posts, screenshots, links etc and people are excited, curious, talking about their own similar experiences, but some posts are a little skeptical. Later on, someone who at least claims to be a math PhD and ex wall street quant comes in, calls the strategy BS and how they themselves just invest in a bunch of index funds. 💸

 

[calvnandhobbs68]

Fun thread on the emergency med subforum I read through:

Thread 'Cyanide’s step by step guide to beating index investing with high probability'

Jan 11, 2026

Alright….i keep getting asked about options and things to read and how to get started. I’m creating this thread so i can just refer people to it.

Here’s a step by step guide specifically outlining my exact current strategy.

Step1: educate yourself

Learn some back ground and understand what it means to sell a put. Here’s one web page that you need to read, it teaches you everything you need to know:

Selling Puts: The Complete Guide for Finding and Managing Great Put Selling Trades (No Opt In Required)

Read the above very long page at least 2 times. That’s 1 day worth of work.


Step 2: open a taxable...

• cyanide12345678
• Replies: 64
• Forum: Emergency Medicine

• 
• 

Basically, emergency med doctor posts some fancy sounding trading strategy to beat index investing regularly. Multiple posts, screenshots, links etc and people are excited, curious, talking about their own similar experiences, but some posts are a little skeptical. Later on, someone who at least claims to be a math PhD and ex wall street quant comes in, calls the strategy BS and how they themselves just invest in a bunch of index funds. 💸

Haha this also requires pretty high amounts of time and energy to keep track of enough of these positions to actually make a dent in your portfolio. Like the first example he gave around selling SPY puts you made....$39 off a 25K account in 21 days. Sure that's a 2.65% annualized return if you do it consistently but i could have also seen 1 extra patient during those 3 weeks and made 5X that amount.

Again for most doctors, your best bet if you wanna make more money on an hour by hour basis is just to work more. Spending hours of time reading this strategy and trying to make it work doesn't make financial sense unless maybe you're working with millions of dollars to do margin trading with.

 

[Stagg737]

Fun thread on the emergency med subforum I read through:

Thread 'Cyanide’s step by step guide to beating index investing with high probability'

Jan 11, 2026

Alright….i keep getting asked about options and things to read and how to get started. I’m creating this thread so i can just refer people to it.

Here’s a step by step guide specifically outlining my exact current strategy.

Step1: educate yourself

Learn some back ground and understand what it means to sell a put. Here’s one web page that you need to read, it teaches you everything you need to know:

Selling Puts: The Complete Guide for Finding and Managing Great Put Selling Trades (No Opt In Required)

Read the above very long page at least 2 times. That’s 1 day worth of work.


Step 2: open a taxable...

• cyanide12345678
• Replies: 64
• Forum: Emergency Medicine

• 
• 

Basically, emergency med doctor posts some fancy sounding trading strategy to beat index investing regularly. Multiple posts, screenshots, links etc and people are excited, curious, talking about their own similar experiences, but some posts are a little skeptical. Later on, someone who at least claims to be a math PhD and ex wall street quant comes in, calls the strategy BS and how they themselves just invest in a bunch of index funds. 💸

I will forever stand by the opinion that while they occasionally have dumpster fire threads, the EM and gas sub-forums are the most entertaining ones on SDN.

 

[samac]

I'm 32 going on 33 and a second year attending, maxing my 403b, 457, and roth IRA.
With employer contribution of 10% I'm putting 49k in the 403, 24.5k in a 457 and now 15k in the 2 roth IRAs a year. My husband is a teacher on a pension plan, but his 45k a year salary doesn't move the needle much.
I want to retire at 62. Have everything in target date funds. I feel so far behind lol.

I'm not playing the stock game now, 300k in student loans so going for PSLF and that payment is going to go to 2500 a month in October. My next RVU bonus will pay off most of my spouse's 50k student loans. After that will consider stocks with RVU bonuses.

Travel is important to me. I am going to Mexico and Greece this year - that was my lifestyle change and spend 10-15k a year on big travel plans. Otherwise I'm in the same house I bought in residency and did buy a Hyundai Tuscon after my husband's car broke.
I think it's reasonable?

 

[Orgone]

I will forever stand by the opinion that while they occasionally have dumpster fire threads, the EM and gas sub-forums are the most entertaining ones on SDN.

Pathology before they banned LADoc00 was also up there in entertainment.

I'm 32 going on 33 and a second year attending, maxing my 403b, 457, and roth IRA.
With employer contribution of 10% I'm putting 49k in the 403, 24.5k in a 457 and now 15k in the 2 roth IRAs a year. My husband is a teacher on a pension plan, but his 45k a year salary doesn't move the needle much.
I want to retire at 62. Have everything in target date funds. I feel so far behind lol.

I'm not playing the stock game now, 300k in student loans so going for PSLF and that payment is going to go to 2500 a month in October. My next RVU bonus will pay off most of my spouse's 50k student loans. After that will consider stocks with RVU bonuses.

Travel is important to me. I am going to Mexico and Greece this year - that was my lifestyle change and spend 10-15k a year on big travel plans. Otherwise I'm in the same house I bought in residency and did buy a Hyundai Tuscon after my husband's car broke.
I think it's reasonable?

If you keep saving 90k a year, for 30 years, with average inflation-adjusted investment rate of return 7% (which is normal), you will be looking at a nest egg of 9 Million. I'd say you're doing good.

Enjoy Mexico and Greece!

 

[Stagg737]

I'm 32 going on 33 and a second year attending, maxing my 403b, 457, and roth IRA.
With employer contribution of 10% I'm putting 49k in the 403, 24.5k in a 457 and now 15k in the 2 roth IRAs a year. My husband is a teacher on a pension plan, but his 45k a year salary doesn't move the needle much.
I want to retire at 62. Have everything in target date funds. I feel so far behind lol.

I'm not playing the stock game now, 300k in student loans so going for PSLF and that payment is going to go to 2500 a month in October. My next RVU bonus will pay off most of my spouse's 50k student loans. After that will consider stocks with RVU bonuses.

Travel is important to me. I am going to Mexico and Greece this year - that was my lifestyle change and spend 10-15k a year on big travel plans. Otherwise I'm in the same house I bought in residency and did buy a Hyundai Tuscon after my husband's car broke.
I think it's reasonable?

If you're able to invest $88k/yr for the next 30 years you should probably be fine unless you're planning on having a luxurious retirement. If you invest nothing else at 6% interest you'd have a little under $7 million when you retire. If you use the 4% rule once you retire that gives you $23k/mo to spend ($29k/mo withdrawn) and would cover you for almost over 30 years assuming you never make another dime.

Using a prediction calculator, $23k in 2056 would be equivalent to $11.5k/mo in today money, so if you think you'd be fine being able to spend $11.5k/mo right now then you're definitely on track. That's all without accounting for any of your spouses pension or contributions, investing in stocks or additional income. You're solid.

ETA: Calculators used for anyone wanting to play around with the numbers:

Investment Calculator

Free investment calculator to evaluate various investment situations considering starting and ending balance, contributions, return rate, and investment length.

www.calculator.net

https://usaaef.org/tools/calculator/how-long-will-my-retirement-savings-last-calculator/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=21541264685&gbraid=0AAAAAqKj4NatTGA3RQtq9g3lfMUzeckjg&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3qnH746ikgMVyCxECB1ivgRwEAAYASAAEgKd4PD_BwE

Tom's Inflation Calculator

 

[DareGreatly]

If you're able to invest $88k/yr for the next 30 years you should probably be fine unless you're planning on having a luxurious retirement. If you invest nothing else at 6% interest you'd have a little under $7 million when you retire. If you use the 4% rule once you retire that gives you $23k/mo to spend ($29k/mo withdrawn) and would cover you for almost over 30 years assuming you never make another dime.

Using a prediction calculator, $23k in 2056 would be equivalent to $11.5k/mo in today money, so if you think you'd be fine being able to spend $11.5k/mo right now then you're definitely on track. That's all without accounting for any of your spouses pension or contributions, investing in stocks or additional income. You're solid.

ETA: Calculators used for anyone wanting to play around with the numbers:

Investment Calculator

Free investment calculator to evaluate various investment situations considering starting and ending balance, contributions, return rate, and investment length.

www.calculator.net

https://usaaef.org/tools/calculator/how-long-will-my-retirement-savings-last-calculator/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=21541264685&gbraid=0AAAAAqKj4NatTGA3RQtq9g3lfMUzeckjg&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3qnH746ikgMVyCxECB1ivgRwEAAYASAAEgKd4PD_BwE

Tom's Inflation Calculator

I think you're double-counting inflation. Inflation-adjusted returns of the SP500 is 7-8% per year (i.e., ~10% nominally). A lot of people will use 6% projecting forward to be more conservative. So, they would actually be living on around $23k per month in today's dollars at retirement. Probably much more than most of us need!

 

[Stagg737]

I think you're double-counting inflation. Inflation-adjusted returns of the SP500 is 7-8% per year (i.e., ~10% nominally). A lot of people will use 6% projecting forward to be more conservative. So, they would actually be living on around $23k per month in today's dollars at retirement. Probably much more than most of us need!

It would be nice if I were, but pretty sure that particular calculator (first link) doesn't account for inflation or changes in spending power in their return rate and final calculations, which is why I added the part about inflation in the end. They have a search bar with some inflation calculators if you just search "inflation" though (CPI, forward and backward flat calculators), so can be calculated through their site as well.

I do like to low-ball the ROI to be conservative though, because there's little harm in ending up with extra money but not having enough can be disastrous. Either way, if @samac can continue that investment strategy and the trajectory is fairly accurate, they'll be just fine.

 

[samac]

If you're able to invest $88k/yr for the next 30 years you should probably be fine unless you're planning on having a luxurious retirement. If you invest nothing else at 6% interest you'd have a little under $7 million when you retire. If you use the 4% rule once you retire that gives you $23k/mo to spend ($29k/mo withdrawn) and would cover you for almost over 30 years assuming you never make another dime.

Using a prediction calculator, $23k in 2056 would be equivalent to $11.5k/mo in today money, so if you think you'd be fine being able to spend $11.5k/mo right now then you're definitely on track. That's all without accounting for any of your spouses pension or contributions, investing in stocks or additional income. You're solid.

ETA: Calculators used for anyone wanting to play around with the numbers:

Investment Calculator

Free investment calculator to evaluate various investment situations considering starting and ending balance, contributions, return rate, and investment length.

www.calculator.net

https://usaaef.org/tools/calculator/how-long-will-my-retirement-savings-last-calculator/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=21541264685&gbraid=0AAAAAqKj4NatTGA3RQtq9g3lfMUzeckjg&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3qnH746ikgMVyCxECB1ivgRwEAAYASAAEgKd4PD_BwE

Tom's Inflation Calculator

My take home now is around 10k myself, with husband around 12.5k. Definitely think that should be doable with his pension!
Makes me feel a little better to have some external validation, I didn't hire anybody, I just researched the accounts and decided to max everything as I started as a new attending (make my taxable income as low as possible for student loans) since it was still a major bump from resident pay and I thought we'd have no issue with our lifestyle.
I didn't do an HSA because our HMO is killer. I'm at the same place I did residency and had choledocholithiasis and was admitted for 3 days for ERCP+ chole. Entire out of pocket cost for that hospitalization was $200.
Thanks for the link. 🙂

 

[DareGreatly]

It would be nice if I were, but pretty sure that particular calculator (first link) doesn't account for inflation or changes in spending power in their return rate and final calculations, which is why I added the part about inflation in the end. They have a search bar with some inflation calculators if you just search "inflation" though (CPI, forward and backward flat calculators), so can be calculated through their site as well.

I do like to low-ball the ROI to be conservative though, because there's little harm in ending up with extra money but not having enough can be disastrous. Either way, if @samac can continue that investment strategy and the trajectory is fairly accurate, they'll be just fine.

No, the calculator doesn't. I'm just saying when 6% is used as the growth rate, that is typically including projected inflation (8-9% nominal growth - 2-3% inflation). What you did was basically create a scenario where the money compounded at a 3-4% in real returns. Obviously, any projection is a guess, but 3-4% would be considered overly conservative to most people.

 

[finalpsychyear]

My take home now is around 10k myself, with husband around 12.5k. Definitely think that should be doable with his pension!
Makes me feel a little better to have some external validation, I didn't hire anybody, I just researched the accounts and decided to max everything as I started as a new attending (make my taxable income as low as possible for student loans) since it was still a major bump from resident pay and I thought we'd have no issue with our lifestyle.
I didn't do an HSA because our HMO is killer. I'm at the same place I did residency and had choledocholithiasis and was admitted for 3 days for ERCP+ chole. Entire out of pocket cost for that hospitalization was $200.
Thanks for the link. 🙂

Your def ahead of me big time when i was that age. Getting even close to the 100k invested that young is great once loans are paid off maybe some of that goes there too.
In a few years since the limits to all those accounts keeps going up if u max out plus the match u will already be there.

I actually think if u do this till early 50s so lets say 20 years you may be only part time but that depends entirely on lifestyle then and post work.

If u did 9k/mo which u might once loans are down at 6% real ur ar 4m by year 20, 6m by year 25 and near 9 at 30 years. Basically with compounding after year 20 every 5 years worked adds 50% to ur NW

 

[Stagg737]

No, the calculator doesn't. I'm just saying when 6% is used as the growth rate, that is typically including projected inflation (8-9% nominal growth - 2-3% inflation). What you did was basically create a scenario where the money compounded at a 3-4% in real returns. Obviously, any projection is a guess, but 3-4% would be considered overly conservative to most people.

Ah, I see what mean. I'm just very conservative when it comes to financial planning so I always calculate with a little underestimation of expected returns and overestimation for expected expenses. Again having too much is a great problem to have compared to running out way too early.

 

[PsyDr]

It would be nice if I were, but pretty sure that particular calculator (first link) doesn't account for inflation or changes in spending power in their return rate and final calculations, which is why I added the part about inflation in the end. They have a search bar with some inflation calculators if you just search "inflation" though (CPI, forward and backward flat calculators), so can be calculated through their site as well.

I do like to low-ball the ROI to be conservative though, because there's little harm in ending up with extra money but not having enough can be disastrous. Either way, if @samac can continue that investment strategy and the trajectory is fairly accurate, they'll be just fine.

It also does not account for Bernicki's Spending Model (i.e., at ages 55+, one's spending declines until it stabilizes at age 75ish).

 

[finalpsychyear]

It also does not account for Bernicki's Spending Model (i.e., at ages 55+, one's spending declines until it stabilizes at age 75ish).

Yes everything is conservative. Even the 3 to 4% rule changes if you have a positive first few years assume 5 and allow more spending close to 4.5-6 dynamic range.

This dynamic strategy is they key. Few conservative years maybe some PT work mixed in and once out of the sorr u can def have some 4 to 6% years and maybr indef

 

[Jules A]

I'm 32 going on 33 and a second year attending, maxing my 403b, 457, and roth IRA.
With employer contribution of 10% I'm putting 49k in the 403, 24.5k in a 457 and now 15k in the 2 roth IRAs a year. My husband is a teacher on a pension plan, but his 45k a year salary doesn't move the needle much.
I want to retire at 62. Have everything in target date funds. I feel so far behind lol.

I'm not playing the stock game now, 300k in student loans so going for PSLF and that payment is going to go to 2500 a month in October. My next RVU bonus will pay off most of my spouse's 50k student loans. After that will consider stocks with RVU bonuses.

Travel is important to me. I am going to Mexico and Greece this year - that was my lifestyle change and spend 10-15k a year on big travel plans. Otherwise I'm in the same house I bought in residency and did buy a Hyundai Tuscon after my husband's car broke.
I think it's reasonable?

Like others have said you are doing great. I believe with a 3 bucket fund and reasonable spending habits most people don’t need a financial advisor although it’s not a bad idea to have a fee for service person to check in with periodically. I suspect you might be missing long term growth potential if you aren’t investing in stocks, most specifically low fee total stock market index funds which mimic the entire market. Maybe check out White Coat Investor forum for DIY info?

 

[Merovinge]

I'm 32 going on 33 and a second year attending, maxing my 403b, 457, and roth IRA.
With employer contribution of 10% I'm putting 49k in the 403, 24.5k in a 457 and now 15k in the 2 roth IRAs a year. My husband is a teacher on a pension plan, but his 45k a year salary doesn't move the needle much.
I want to retire at 62. Have everything in target date funds. I feel so far behind lol.

I'm not playing the stock game now, 300k in student loans so going for PSLF and that payment is going to go to 2500 a month in October. My next RVU bonus will pay off most of my spouse's 50k student loans. After that will consider stocks with RVU bonuses.

Travel is important to me. I am going to Mexico and Greece this year - that was my lifestyle change and spend 10-15k a year on big travel plans. Otherwise I'm in the same house I bought in residency and did buy a Hyundai Tuscon after my husband's car broke.
I think it's reasonable?

You say your not playing the stock game, but I would hope your 403b, 457, and roth accounts are invested in equities. Otherwise there is nothing wrong with paying off everything before opening a taxable brokerage account, we did the same thing. We lost a lot of money buying a house in cash instead of investing in equities, but it had enough peace of mind benefits for my partner that it was totally worth it.

Also please keep traveling, you only get to be young and take those trips for a finite portion of time. After kids traveling gets more complicated, I am very grateful for the amount I did in my 30s.

 

[samac]

Like others have said you are doing great. I believe with a 3 bucket fund and reasonable spending habits most people don’t need a financial advisor although it’s not a bad idea to have a fee for service person to check in with periodically. I suspect you might be missing long term growth potential if you aren’t investing in stocks, most specifically low fee total stock market index funds which mimic the entire market. Maybe check out White Coat Investor forum for DIY info?

Fair enough! Yeah, I'm sure I'm missing some growth potential but getting out from under his student loans at 7% feels like the less pressure thing before I start 🙂

You say your not playing the stock game, but I would hope your 403b, 457, and roth accounts are invested in equities. Otherwise there is nothing wrong with paying off everything before opening a taxable brokerage account, we did the same thing. We lost a lot of money buying a house in cash instead of investing in equities, but it had enough peace of mind benefits for my partner that it was totally worth it.

Also please keep traveling, you only get to be young and take those trips for a finite portion of time. After kids traveling gets more complicated, I am very grateful for the amount I did in my 30s.

Yes! My retirement accounts are all in target date index funds. I likely won't pay off my house before investing since its at 4%, but the higher interest things like his student loans feels worth it. I'd pay mine off too if I wasn't 6 years deep into PSLF. I don't like being in debt.
I also appreciate the travelling advice. I really do enjoy it, since my last year of residency when I was making moonlight money I've basically taken 2 trips a year. One to relax and one to explore. I love it so much, even if my husband thinks I'm crazy. We're trying to have a kid now so I'll only book 6 months in advance which limits my point usage though and that makes me a little sad.

 

[hallowmann]

The meta hasn't changed, it's parental anxiety that has changed significantly. These consultants do very little that can't be figured out by just talking to other parents (or these days, using Chat GPT). Consultants are alleviating parental anxiety, nothing more. And their results are mediocre. I have an uncle who's very wealthy (like lower end of mid 8 figures net worth). Was at a gathering he hosted where there were many parents of his similar socioeconomic background who were talking about college consultants they'd dropped 100k+ on and were raving about how helpful they were in getting their kids into great colleges. And the colleges were....Northwestern, Wash U, Tufts, Carnegie Melon, etc. All good school, sure, but if I was paying 100k+ for a consultant, my kids better be getting into Harvard/Stanford/MIT. They can't guarantee that because no matter how you slice it, there's a finite amount of things that can be done to maximize your chances of getting into a top school and those things are relatively straightforward.

While I generally agree, Carnegie Mellon is consistently 1st or 2nd nationally for computer science, electrical engineering, and machine learning. It literally is in the same realm as MIT if those are the fields you're going for. I know multiple people that turned down Stanford and MIT for the spot at Carnegie Mellon, granted mainly for PhDs in those fields (which absolutely are easier to get if you do undergrad there).

Also, I don't know, if your net worth is halfway to 9 figures, dropping 0.5% of it on your kids future prospects is not the worst thing. I mean at least it's not a Cybertruck, right?

 

[Merovinge]

While I generally agree, Carnegie Mellon is consistently 1st or 2nd nationally for computer science, electrical engineering, and machine learning. It literally is in the same realm as MIT if those are the fields you're going for. I know multiple people that turned down Stanford and MIT for the spot at Carnegie Mellon, granted mainly for PhDs in those fields (which absolutely are easier to get if you do undergrad there).

Also, I don't know, if your net worth is halfway to 9 figures, dropping 0.5% of it on your kids future prospects is not the worst thing. I mean at least it's not a Cybertruck, right?

This is exactly how the K shaped economy is going to progress. My NW will be low 8 figures when my kid is applying to college, I am already having to internally debate how much/little to engage in this college consultant nonsense, but it's hard to argue against working an extra year to enjoy the privileges associated with matriculating at a top school. I would love for my kid to do it all on their own like I did, there is a real satisfaction in starting from the bottom and getting here, but I also know there is the reality of the evolving world.

 

[FlowRate]

This is exactly how the K shaped economy is going to progress. My NW will be low 8 figures when my kid is applying to college, I am already having to internally debate how much/little to engage in this college consultant nonsense, but it's hard to argue against working an extra year to enjoy the privileges associated with matriculating at a top school. I would love for my kid to do it all on their own like I did, there is a real satisfaction in starting from the bottom and getting here, but I also know there is the reality of the evolving world.

Don't count out just how far an engineering degree from a good in-state public university can take you. It may not come with all of the fringe perks of Ivy/Ivy-adjacent, but at least you know your kid won't starve.

 

[Merovinge]

Don't count out just how far an engineering degree from a good in-state public university can take you. It may not come with all of the fringe perks of Ivy/Ivy-adjacent, but at least you know your kid won't starve.

I have a double major STEM degrees from a good in-state public university where my 4 years of tuition ran about the cost of 1 semester at current top private Universities. I'll tell you one thing that's definitely true, I ain't starving .

 

[DisorderedDoc417]

I have a double major STEM degrees from a good in-state public university where my 4 years of tuition ran about the cost of 1 semester at current top private Universities. I'll tell you one thing that's definitely true, I ain't starving .

8 figure net worth by the time your first kid is 18. Teach more, sensei. Some rare combination of Dave Ramsey, white coat investor, and raw will power has me there by retirement; only after both making much more and saving more than most in our field over 30 years.

 

[calvnandhobbs68]

8 figure net worth by the time your first kid is 18. Teach more, sensei. Some rare combination of Dave Ramsey, white coat investor, and raw will power has me there by retirement; only after both making much more and saving more than most in our field over 30 years.

His wife is a surgeon 😉

 

[finalpsychyear]

8 figure net worth by the time your first kid is 18. Teach more, sensei. Some rare combination of Dave Ramsey, white coat investor, and raw will power has me there by retirement; only after both making much more and saving more than most in our field over 30 years.

When do u define retirement. Math says 12k/mo at 8.5% gets u there in 23 years.
Some in my class worked extra hard first 5-6 years out and were putting away 50% more and got more like 15% cagr in voo/vti and closer to 20% in qqq. These r the rough cagr for the last 10 years.

I have one friend close to 5m who is 10 years out does nothing but invest in qqq/voo/vti but he was doimg 18k/mo for a long time and has cut back now. This incvudes work match/roth/ hsa amd brokerage. Midwest no fancy car and median house 500k ish. He also had kids and got married after working 5-6 years as an attending but he is in an insanely good spot.


There is luck involved. 15 vs 10 vs 7 cagr change the path immensely. You still need to be putting 150k from early 30s to 50s to have a shot unless u want to work till 65

 

[finalpsychyear]

His wife is a surgeon 😉

My tennis surgeon bud works academia and is only 50% clinical the other is research still pulls close to 600k. These peeps or households dont count

 

[Stagg737]

8 figure net worth by the time your first kid is 18. Teach more, sensei. Some rare combination of Dave Ramsey, white coat investor, and raw will power has me there by retirement; only after both making much more and saving more than most in our field over 30 years.

His wife is a surgeon 😉

Noob level: Become a physician
Pro: Work in a high paying sub-specialty or ROAD
Hacker: Marry into ROAD. Achievement unlocked.

 

[finalpsychyear]

Noob level: Become a physician
Pro: Work in a high paying sub-specialty or ROAD
Hacker: Marry into ROAD. Achievement unlocked.

Super Star: invest hard and early. By middish/late 40s investment income matches or exceeds clinical income esp when considering 15-20% cap gains taxes. Sip mai thai's in bali while ccasionally logging into SDN to provide sage advice to the newbies.

 

[2025DandW]

As a millionaire 5 years out of residency and practicing psychiatrist, my advice would be to invest in AI, Energy or semiconductors. Iren, APLD, Bloom Energy, Oklo, etc are some winners.

I have been following your 4 recommendations. I stuck to my Boglehead plan of ETFs. Anyway, assuming I bought 100 shares of each of your recommendations on 9/22/25, I would have lost approximately $1000 dollars by end of market Friday. If I just invested in the S&P 500, I would have a 2.7% return during the same time period. For those recommending bitcoin, it was $112122.64 on 9/22/25, and it is now $69,434.07.
I think I will stick to the Boglehead way.

eta: It would actually be a loss of $354, so not quite a $1000.

 

[FatherPsychiatry]

I have been following your 4 recommendations. I stuck to my Boglehead plan of ETFs. Anyway, assuming I bought 100 shares of each of your recommendations on 9/22/25, I would have lost approximately $1000 dollars by end of market Friday. If I just invested in the S&P 500, I would have a 2.7% return during the same time period. For those recommending bitcoin, it was $112122.64 on 9/22/25, and it is now $69,434.07.
I think I will stick to the Boglehead way.

eta: It would actually be a loss of $354, so not quite a $1000.

Nice call out. Makes me think someone should design a bot where it automatically replies to the thread when a post suggesting specific investments is made, and regularly edits that post with what the value of say $100,000 would be today if you invested like that.

 

[clozareal]

I have been following your 4 recommendations. I stuck to my Boglehead plan of ETFs. Anyway, assuming I bought 100 shares of each of your recommendations on 9/22/25, I would have lost approximately $1000 dollars by end of market Friday. If I just invested in the S&P 500, I would have a 2.7% return during the same time period. For those recommending bitcoin, it was $112122.64 on 9/22/25, and it is now $69,434.07.
I think I will stick to the Boglehead way.

eta: It would actually be a loss of $354, so not quite a $1000.

VOO and chill

 

[mistafab]

Heading towards 2 years out in attending-hood. Life has been pretty great.

I have been job-cobbling. Total work ~50 hours a week. I have a great FT job I love and working a 1099 side gig on off days (daytime only, contracting with a residential program). Cobbling has been very doable and lucrative. I work no nights and take no call. Doing these hours on track to hit ~400k this year for 5 days of work a week.

Me and the Mrs. are both in this together and agreeing on working hard for this season (next 2-3 years). This will be setting us up well for the future. We are both financially literate thankfully and working together so that;s helpful. Would not be able to do what I'm doing without support. She's also FT and her career has been picking up a lot thankfully so she may be making more than myself soon.

Debt freedom here I come!

Lot of great stuff in this thread.

I’m still dead broke with a huge pile of student loans I’m crawling out of. Me and the Mrs. On the same page about getting that out of our lives. Huge drain financially and major setback for us over the next few years.

Will need more time before we can start setting up our success down the road. Being a doctor is great - student loans suck.

 

[finalpsychyear]

Heading towards 2 years out in attending-hood. Life has been pretty great.

I have been job-cobbling. Total work ~50 hours a week. I have a great FT job I love and working a 1099 side gig on off days (daytime only, contracting with a residential program). Cobbling has been very doable and lucrative. I work no nights and take no call. Doing these hours on track to hit ~400k this year for 5 days of work a week.

Me and the Mrs. are both in this together and agreeing on working hard for this season (next 2-3 years). This will be setting us up well for the future. We are both financially literate thankfully and working together so that;s helpful. Would not be able to do what I'm doing without support. She's also FT and her career has been picking up a lot thankfully so she may be making more than myself soon.

Debt freedom here I come!

great job overall. I feel your a bit underpaid for 50 hrs of clinical work imo unless im missing something maybe thats the area your in or maybe the additional hours are a mix of admin/phone call type of coverage. Your premise is great nonethless to knock out debt and hopefully build your nest egg portfolio simultaneously.

 

[mistafab]

great job overall. I feel your a bit underpaid for 50 hrs of clinical work imo unless im missing something maybe thats the area your in or maybe the additional hours are a mix of admin/phone call type of coverage. Your premise is great nonethless to knock out debt and hopefully build your nest egg portfolio simultaneously.

In practice my week is averaging a chill 45 hours a week. But on paper it is still 50. A mix of PTO and holidays makes it so I'm only working 36 hours at my main gig and 5-10 h/wk at my side gig. Main job has residents and education so is a chill gig. Hope that my post helps newer grads understand it is not hard to make decent pay in psych for pretty chill work.

 

[twospadz]

I have been following your 4 recommendations. I stuck to my Boglehead plan of ETFs. Anyway, assuming I bought 100 shares of each of your recommendations on 9/22/25, I would have lost approximately $1000 dollars by end of market Friday. If I just invested in the S&P 500, I would have a 2.7% return during the same time period. For those recommending bitcoin, it was $112122.64 on 9/22/25, and it is now $69,434.07.
I think I will stick to the Boglehead way.

eta: It would actually be a loss of $354, so not quite a $1000.

I also bought Sandisk, Western Digital, AXT and Seagate too Jan 9th 2026 because of Micron's success last year. Calculate that percentage lol. VOO chill is not where its at unless you want to retire in 50 years.

 

[Bartelby]

I also bought Sandisk, Western Digital, AXT and Seagate too Jan 9th 2026 because of Micron's success last year. Calculate that percentage lol. VOO chill is not where its at unless you want to retire in 50 years.

Making winning bets is great, but from the research I have seen it is extremely rare even for professional investors to significantly beat the market across many years. Isn't it also more likely that one of these companies could run into serious trouble and lose a significant fraction of total value?

With the right income I think a total stock market index fund returning around 7 to 10% can actually get you to retirement over the course of a decade or two.

For example, if you have a spouse who is also a physician total household income could be about $600,000. Taxes probably eat $200,000 or so of that. If you can live on roughly $200,000 and save $200,000, in 5 years that gives you $1 million even without investment returns. An index fund would probably yield about $70 to $ $100,000 per year at that point averaged out.

You can see how that would quickly spiral upwards by the 10-year mark. And once you have $2 or $3 million making returns for you, the savings rate would get really impressive.

For me the bottom line is living substantially below your means for at least 5 to 10 years while you build a solid investment base is probably the most reliable way to enable comfortable retirement after 15 to 20 years of full earning.

And then of course the amount you need to spend in retirement matters quite a bit. If you can live on $100,000 per year in retirement the targets get a lot easier than if you think you will need 3 or $400,000 per year.

 

[2025DandW]

I also bought Sandisk, Western Digital, AXT and Seagate too Jan 9th 2026 because of Micron's success last year. Calculate that percentage lol. VOO chill is not where its at unless you want to retire in 50 years.

Obviously, four months out won’t tell where something will be if people plan to buy and hold with plans to retire in 30 years. However, the vast majority of physicians have no business trying to outsmart the market because at the end of the day they will lose. I have seen too many physicians trying to get rich quick, dabbling in things with no real education because someone made some quick money from it. The vast, vast, vast majority of us will do well sticking to index funds. Who has time to be going extensively research on funds while or acting medicine? Even if people had the time, history has shown they will do no better than a monkey throwing a dart at a board with various stocks listed.

 

[DareGreatly]

Obviously, four months out won’t tell where something will be if people plan to buy and hold with plans to retire in 30 years. However, the vast majority of physicians have no business trying to outsmart the market because at the end of the day they will lose. I have seen too many physicians trying to get rich quick, dabbling in things with no real education because someone made some quick money from it. The vast, vast, vast majority of us will do well sticking to index funds. Who has time to be going extensively research on funds while or acting medicine? Even if people had the time, history has shown they will do no better than a monkey throwing a dart at a board with various stocks listed.

Agreed. But to be honest, I think all but a very, very few stock pickers have shown they have no ability to reliably pick winners. Not just physicians. Sure, fund managers can show a bunch of charts and do a bunch of math that underpins their strategy... but that's all window dressing to market themselves and take somewhere between 0.1-2% of your money every year. At the end of the day the vast majority of them underperform simple indexes. There are too many variables, the economy is too complex, there are too many smart people in the market and the future is too uncertain. All we can bank on is that in general, humans want to consume more/continually live a better standard of living. That pushes companies up and to the right. All that said, there are going to be lucky folks from time to time that bet big on some equities or options and make a lot of money - the key is that they realize they were lucky and preserve the money they made... that is even rarer still.

 

[2025DandW]

Agreed. But to be honest, I think all but a very, very few stock pickers have shown they have no ability to reliably pick winners. Not just physicians. Sure, fund managers can show a bunch of charts and do a bunch of math that underpins their strategy... but that's all window dressing to market themselves and take somewhere between 0.1-2% of your money every year. At the end of the day the vast majority of them underperform simple indexes. There are too many variables, the economy is too complex, there are too many smart people in the market and the future is too uncertain. All we can bank on is that in general, humans want to consume more/continually live a better standard of living. That pushes companies up and to the right. All that said, there are going to be lucky folks from time to time that bet big on some equities or options and make a lot of money - the key is that they realize they were lucky and preserve the money they made... that is even rarer still.

We are in a physicians’ group thus my usage of physicians. My statement applies to just about everyone. There is someone posting on here as if they have some advanced knowledge, and there seem to be people falling for it, which is why I said what I said. I can’t stop people from doing whatever they want with their money, but I believe those following this stock picker are on a fool’s errand. To each his own.

 

[DareGreatly]

We are in a physicians’ group thus my usage of physicians. My statement applies to just about everyone. There is someone posting on here as if they have some advanced knowledge, and there seem to be people falling for it, which is why I said what I said. I can’t stop people from doing whatever they want with their money, but I believe those following this stock picker are on a fool’s errand. To each his own.

Yeah, I didn't mean to make it sound like I was disagreeing with you, but rather just expounding. To be honest, I think without insider information or some technological advantage (maybe some advanced algorithmic trading), it's only a matter of time before anyone reverts back to the mean (even Buffett!). Luckily there is so much information out there these days and access to cheap indexes - it must have been a lot easier to swindle people in the past.