Does anyone have any knowledge of statistics regarding how many interviews are necessary to match? I currently have 15 set up, have been on 5, and can't imagine doing 5 more. I have read that 6, 8, 12, or 15 are sufficient. Thanks for any help.
Interview Trailing
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The general advice on this forum seems to be 10. People who rank 10 programs tend to match.
here is something I posted elsewhere on the forum, which has since been burried:
For those of the anal persuasion:
http://www.nrmp.org/matchoutcomes.pdf
page 28 is where EM starts... a summary of data indicates:
If you rank 1 place, you have about a 50/50 chance,
if you rank 3 places, it is still around 50/50
if you rank 5: you at around 80%
if you rank 7: you are around 90%
if you rank 10: you are at 99.5%
***Huge Caveat: This is assuming that this year's EM match is very similar to last year's. If for whatever reason the number or quality of applicants has increased (or decreased) markedly, the number could change, perhaps dramatically. These numbers are also just group figures. If your application is very very strong, you might want to assume that you can get away with a couple less ranks. If your application is average, you might want to be as sure as you can be, and rank a few additional places.
Use the information at your discretion.
For those of the anal persuasion:
http://www.nrmp.org/matchoutcomes.pdf
page 28 is where EM starts... a summary of data indicates:
If you rank 1 place, you have about a 50/50 chance,
if you rank 3 places, it is still around 50/50
if you rank 5: you at around 80%
if you rank 7: you are around 90%
if you rank 10: you are at 99.5%
***Huge Caveat: This is assuming that this year's EM match is very similar to last year's. If for whatever reason the number or quality of applicants has increased (or decreased) markedly, the number could change, perhaps dramatically. These numbers are also just group figures. If your application is very very strong, you might want to assume that you can get away with a couple less ranks. If your application is average, you might want to be as sure as you can be, and rank a few additional places.
Use the information at your discretion.
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Figured I'd update this with the 2007 match stats: http://www.nrmp.org/data/chartingoutcomes2007.pdf
Many of you have probably seen all of these stats, but now people are deciding how many interviews to accept (or whether to send out more apps) so this may be timely.
These statistics are for US seniors whose first-choice program was EM. The numbers that follow are contiguous EM ranks. Thus if you ranked 3 EM programs and then 5 IM programs, and you match at your number 4 choice, you are considered to have ranked 3 programs and failed to match.
If you ranked 1 EM program, you had a 50% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 2 or 3 EM programs, you had a 67% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 4 EM programs, you had a 77% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 5 EM programs, you had a 92% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 6 EM programs, you had a 88% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 7 EM programs, you had a 90% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 8 EM programs, you had a 97% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 9 EM programs, you had a 94% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 10 or more EM programs, you hit an asymptote where you had a 98-100% chance of matching in EM. (13 = 98.6%, 14=100%, 15=100%, 16 or more 98.1%)
There are histograms based on step 1 and step 2 performance as well. All 9 US Seniors applying for EM who scored greater than 260 on Step 1 matched in EM, for instance, while only 96% who scored in the 220's did. Then again, all 8 people who scored below a 180 also matched into EM (I thought that was failing, but maybe they're MD/PhD's who took it when the cutoff for passing was lower...it can't be people doing a second residency, because those people aren't US Seniors...maybe this only refers to their first attempt, and then they did better the next time around?).
Probably a duplicate post, but again, just something to ponder while ironing that interview suit and idly scrolling through ERAS.
Many of you have probably seen all of these stats, but now people are deciding how many interviews to accept (or whether to send out more apps) so this may be timely.
These statistics are for US seniors whose first-choice program was EM. The numbers that follow are contiguous EM ranks. Thus if you ranked 3 EM programs and then 5 IM programs, and you match at your number 4 choice, you are considered to have ranked 3 programs and failed to match.
If you ranked 1 EM program, you had a 50% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 2 or 3 EM programs, you had a 67% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 4 EM programs, you had a 77% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 5 EM programs, you had a 92% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 6 EM programs, you had a 88% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 7 EM programs, you had a 90% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 8 EM programs, you had a 97% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 9 EM programs, you had a 94% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 10 or more EM programs, you hit an asymptote where you had a 98-100% chance of matching in EM. (13 = 98.6%, 14=100%, 15=100%, 16 or more 98.1%)
There are histograms based on step 1 and step 2 performance as well. All 9 US Seniors applying for EM who scored greater than 260 on Step 1 matched in EM, for instance, while only 96% who scored in the 220's did. Then again, all 8 people who scored below a 180 also matched into EM (I thought that was failing, but maybe they're MD/PhD's who took it when the cutoff for passing was lower...it can't be people doing a second residency, because those people aren't US Seniors...maybe this only refers to their first attempt, and then they did better the next time around?).
Probably a duplicate post, but again, just something to ponder while ironing that interview suit and idly scrolling through ERAS.
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Does this curve apply if all of the programs are very, very competitive?
Suppose a student only interviewed at 10 extremely competitive programs. Would the student be less likely to match, or would the same curve apply? I guess what I'm asking is, once you get an interview to any certain program (regardless of competitiveness), are the odds still the same for you? I would think they aren't....
This makes me think that you should still interview at a good span of programs (in terms of competitiveness), if you only interview at 10.
Suppose a student only interviewed at 10 extremely competitive programs. Would the student be less likely to match, or would the same curve apply? I guess what I'm asking is, once you get an interview to any certain program (regardless of competitiveness), are the odds still the same for you? I would think they aren't....
This makes me think that you should still interview at a good span of programs (in terms of competitiveness), if you only interview at 10.
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I would actually think the odds are still the same. The chances of getting that interview would be tougher, but most programs base the number of interviews they conduct on the number of slots available. Thus, if you assume that all programs follow a roughly similar interview:slot ratio, then, once you get the interview, your odds of matching are about the same in one person's group of 10 programs compared to another.
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Ten appears to be the number, its the rest of your life, overshoot and go for 12. That was what I did last year and it worked out ok. If you undershoot, and dont match, you'll never forgive yourself...
Someone mentioned what about if they are all really competitive. I would can at least one or two of those and go to at least two rather safe programs. The problem im EM is that all programs are good programs, competitiveness seems to stem more on the area than anything.... so hit a few programs that are 'off the beaten path'.
Good Luck...
Someone mentioned what about if they are all really competitive. I would can at least one or two of those and go to at least two rather safe programs. The problem im EM is that all programs are good programs, competitiveness seems to stem more on the area than anything.... so hit a few programs that are 'off the beaten path'.
Good Luck...
As of today I have gotten zero, 0, zipped interviews so I guess I am toasted......geez and I thought applying to 30 programs was going to be enough. I guess I'lle apply to ten more later this week
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My friend had only two interviews [sent out 40] however she matched at her first choice....personality, personality, personality.😀
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You're not shaking up the stats. 1 ranked program gives you a 50% chance of matching, while 2-3 gives a better than even chance of matching. So your friend just managed to be on the right (and more statistically likely) side of the odds.
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According to the statistics on the AAMC website, the magic number is 10. No fewer.
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this is interesting, b/c most medical schools love telling their students how like 95% of their graduates each year get within their top 3... are people seriously going ten places down their rank list?
i'd think that if you're getting 10-12 interviews you're going to match fairly well, unless you are a complete dud during your interviews...
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If you only applied to 20-30 programs, I would assume (hope) that you are a very competitive applicant (honors in most, A's in a few EM rotations, 220+ Steps).
If you dont meet that criteria, you better apply to double that tonight!
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i hope you are joking and just messing around... "only" 20-30 programs? 20-30 is more than enough -- and from a lot of sources, 220+ steps, honors, and great EM grades means you will solidly match, and definitely not need to apply to more than 20-25 programs. please tell you are were just trying to terrify people...
This is what I advise my students:
truly superior candidate: 20 apps, get 10 interviews
middle candidate: 30 apps, get 10 inteviews
marginal candidate: 50 apps, do as many interviews as people will offer you and you can afford.
Remember the folks who only rank 3 or 4 aren't doing it because that's all the think they need. It's usually because that's all the interviews that they were offered.
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ditto what BKN said. Unless you have an 'external' party telling you that you are super, with supporting data, apply a little more broadly. As a personal note, looking back on it, I was a pretty marginal candidate and pretty oblivious to this fact. I turned out just fine, but dont be that guy.
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I can also put it this way...
If you applied to 30 programs and have ZERO invites so far, then you probably under applied....I'd guess you will still get some invites before the season is over, but 10 might be a strecth...
Remember, its WAY easier to OVER apply and cancel interviews then to say apply to 20 more programs now and hope they invite you (although, already this late you chances with new apps and getting invites has falling drastically)... It will cost you a few more bucks, but a couple hundred dollars is a very cheap price to pay for a successful match.
I was not trying to scare anyone by my post and BKN chimed in with a very similar response (If you are not familiar with BKN, he is a Program Director and is extremely helpful to everyone. In fact, I am not so sure I would have even matched if it was not for his wisdom.). I dont know that anyone here can put 'real numbers' to moderate, superior, etc..... Your best bet is the look at the NRMP data of Step Scores and place your numbers there.....but again PS, personality, etc etc comes to play.
A classmate of mine had superb numbers (even higher than what I listed) they applied to almost 30 programs, and only got 20 invites... I think they went to 10-12 interviews, and matched at a comp place in CA. By numbers, its surprising that they didnt get an interview everywhere....but numbers isnt necessarily everthing.
Good Luck..
If you applied to 30 programs and have ZERO invites so far, then you probably under applied....I'd guess you will still get some invites before the season is over, but 10 might be a strecth...
Remember, its WAY easier to OVER apply and cancel interviews then to say apply to 20 more programs now and hope they invite you (although, already this late you chances with new apps and getting invites has falling drastically)... It will cost you a few more bucks, but a couple hundred dollars is a very cheap price to pay for a successful match.
I was not trying to scare anyone by my post and BKN chimed in with a very similar response (If you are not familiar with BKN, he is a Program Director and is extremely helpful to everyone. In fact, I am not so sure I would have even matched if it was not for his wisdom.). I dont know that anyone here can put 'real numbers' to moderate, superior, etc..... Your best bet is the look at the NRMP data of Step Scores and place your numbers there.....but again PS, personality, etc etc comes to play.
A classmate of mine had superb numbers (even higher than what I listed) they applied to almost 30 programs, and only got 20 invites... I think they went to 10-12 interviews, and matched at a comp place in CA. By numbers, its surprising that they didnt get an interview everywhere....but numbers isnt necessarily everthing.
Good Luck..
Well, I don't want to reduce it to just numbers, because certainly the SLOR is most important. But of course, you may not know what is in it. Further, other PDs might disagree with my defs, but I think most would come close. Anyway, I'll try:
Superior candidate: 2 point MLE or COMLEX >90, transcript mostly HPs and Honors or the equivalent, MSPE class standing upper 1/4 or 1/3, rotation comments using words like exceptional, outstanding, functioned at PG1 or PG2 level, etc.
Middle candidate: 2 point MLE or COMLEX >80, <90. transcript mostly P with sprinkling of HPs and Hs. MSPE Class standing 2nd or 3rd quartile. rotation comments all praise without going overboard.
Marginal candidate: 2 point MLE or COMLEX <80. It might be OK to have failed once, but you need to have come back strong. transcript straight Ps or S. No more than one failure. MSPE bottom quartile. rotation comments mostly praise.
Big trouble: 2 point MLE or COMLEX a failure with repeat passing <80. MSPE repeating a year, any comments about professionalism or honor violation.
Hope that helps. I didn't enjoy writing it.
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The forums are on fire at this stage of the interview season! My question is when should I expect to hear my last interview offer. Several programs have emailed that interviews will not be extended until after Nov 1, while other programs have already extends hundreds of interviews, are the early invitations an anomaly, something offered to top tier students, or standard operating procedure?
My concern is that my 3 interview offers will be all that I get for this season. I felt like I was a strong candidate going in (238/96 usmle, 608/90 comlex, good LORs, top 1/2 of class, 48 apps sent etc), however, after looking at the list of programs that have already extended interviews I am freaking out. Am I being premature or should I be in a chronic state of anxiety until late March?
My concern is that my 3 interview offers will be all that I get for this season. I felt like I was a strong candidate going in (238/96 usmle, 608/90 comlex, good LORs, top 1/2 of class, 48 apps sent etc), however, after looking at the list of programs that have already extended interviews I am freaking out. Am I being premature or should I be in a chronic state of anxiety until late March?
Well by looking at the criteria that BKN above below I do fall in the middle candidate criteria with a 2 point USMLE STEP 1=83 and STEP 2CK=82, mostly B+ and a couple of A's on all junior clerkships. Have never failed a course in medical school. So i'm definitely not a marginal applicant. I applied to 30 programs as previously stated and two days ago I sent out 10 more applications for a total of 40......so far only 1 interview invite. By looking at my board scores and the time that has gone by this season it is doubtful that I'll get more interview invites prior to Nov 1st; however, how many more interviews do programs actually offer after that date. I have received e-mails from three programs stating that they will not offer interviews before that but that is only 3 out of 30.
Chill everyone. There will be many more interview offers after Nov 1. And as people get enough offers and start to cancel there will be still more.
