Figured I'd update this with the 2007 match stats:
http://www.nrmp.org/data/chartingoutcomes2007.pdf
Many of you have probably seen all of these stats, but now people are deciding how many interviews to accept (or whether to send out more apps) so this may be timely.
These statistics are for US seniors whose first-choice program was EM. The numbers that follow are contiguous EM ranks. Thus if you ranked 3 EM programs and then 5 IM programs, and you match at your number 4 choice, you are considered to have ranked 3 programs and failed to match.
If you ranked 1 EM program, you had a 50% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 2 or 3 EM programs, you had a 67% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 4 EM programs, you had a 77% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 5 EM programs, you had a 92% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 6 EM programs, you had a 88% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 7 EM programs, you had a 90% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 8 EM programs, you had a 97% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 9 EM programs, you had a 94% chance of matching in EM.
If you ranked 10 or more EM programs, you hit an asymptote where you had a 98-100% chance of matching in EM. (13 = 98.6%, 14=100%, 15=100%, 16 or more 98.1%)
There are histograms based on step 1 and step 2 performance as well. All 9 US Seniors applying for EM who scored greater than 260 on Step 1 matched in EM, for instance, while only 96% who scored in the 220's did. Then again, all 8 people who scored below a 180 also matched into EM (I thought that was failing, but maybe they're MD/PhD's who took it when the cutoff for passing was lower...it can't be people doing a second residency, because those people aren't US Seniors...maybe this only refers to their first attempt, and then they did better the next time around?).
Probably a duplicate post, but again, just something to ponder while ironing that interview suit and idly scrolling through ERAS.
here is something I posted elsewhere on the forum, which has since been burried:
For those of the anal persuasion:
http://www.nrmp.org/matchoutcomes.pdf
page 28 is where EM starts... a summary of data indicates:
If you rank 1 place, you have about a 50/50 chance,
if you rank 3 places, it is still around 50/50
if you rank 5: you at around 80%
if you rank 7: you are around 90%
if you rank 10: you are at 99.5%
***Huge Caveat: This is assuming that this year's EM match is very similar to last year's. If for whatever reason the number or quality of applicants has increased (or decreased) markedly, the number could change, perhaps dramatically. These numbers are also just group figures. If your application is very very strong, you might want to assume that you can get away with a couple less ranks. If your application is average, you might want to be as sure as you can be, and rank a few additional places.
Use the information at your discretion.
