Yes, things have gotten bad. In 2003, I believe the average debt was about 120k/graduate. It just keeps going up and up. When I graduated from med school in 2004, the average debt/graduate was about 130k and I had 132k in debt, and was able to consolidate that at 2.9%. This makes my monthly payment about $540/month for 30 years, which sucks but is definitely doable on a resident/fellow salary. So I am not hosed, but I worry about students graduating in the next few years.
At some point this becomes unsustainable. To me, anyone with >160k or so in debt is going to be in harm's way because they might not be able to afford to pay enough during residency to keep the loan debt from getting bigger...and bigger...and bigger. 200k in student debt is too much. The only potential bright side I see is that maybe medical schools will have to start exercising some tuition control...but I don't see that happening for a few more years and even then it's a maybe.
I think people are going to start figuring this out and some will likely desert the premed track for things like predental and prepharmacy (still probably very expensive tuition, but then you start getting paid pretty well right after).
The only potential fixes for this (other than tuition control) right now are to pick a high paying specialty, do primary care in an underserved area or go into the military.
I am afraid this whole situation may price the middle and lower classes out of medical school...or at least discourage such people from applying.
I am afraid this will have a bad effect on recruitment and retention of medical school faculty.
I am afraid this will hurt biomedical research, because many won't be able to afford to do research years which pay a resident's salary and further extend training.
I am afraid this will hurt the recruitment and retention of fellows and faculty into the lower-paying internal medicine subspecialties like endocrinology, ID and rheumatology. What is the motivation to do a fellowship like that (where pay @ the end isn't necessarily any higher than for straight IM/primary care) for 2-3 years if one has staggering amounts of student debt to pay back.
Perhaps we will see an increase in IM residents opting to do a year as a hospitalist prior to IM fellowship. For residents in areas like OB/Gyn or general surgery, which don't really have such options, will we see fewer people opting to subspecialize (i.e. gyn onc and abdominal surgery fellowships)?