1,100 Allo grads unmatched?

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as1212559

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1100 students didn't match. I don't know if it was 1100 allos or 1100 of those who entered the match as US seniors (including DOs).

Also, SOAP had 900 open spots according to what I've heard.

This is part of what happens when there are tons of new medical schools opening up without the residency spots going up proportionally.
 
Good info. I'll be a US student but I was just curious if this was verifiable. So 1100 went unmatched but I those 900 SOAP spots were subsequently filled? So it'd be more like ~200 people without spots?

I was aware of the "crunch" in residency numbers based on expanding medical schools but I always hear it being discussed as a future issue rather than a present issue.
 
link2swim06 said:
Look at table 4. http://www.nrmp.org/data/advancedatatables2013.pdf Not that big of change from last year. If you are a US student chill out....we are still ok.
Click to expand...

Table 4 shows that there was a 35% increase in unmatched US seniors. That's a pretty huge change. The AAMC even issued a statement about how they were worried about it. Unfortunately I don't think you can say US students are going to be okay anymore.

as1212559 said:
Good info. I'll be a US student but I was just curious if this was verifiable. So 1100 went unmatched but I those 900 SOAP spots were subsequently filled? So it'd be more like ~200 people without spots?

I was aware of the "crunch" in residency numbers based on expanding medical schools but I always hear it being discussed as a future issue rather than a present issue.
Click to expand...

That 1100 number only considers US seniors. There are DOs, IMGs, and US MD non-seniors in the SOAP too. The total number of people registered for the SOAP this year was closer to 9000. 10 applicants for every open spot in SOAP. I'd bet there are more than 200 unmatched US seniors this year, because surely some IMGs and DOs ended up getting a spot through the SOAP.
 
evilbooyaa said:
1100 students didn't match. I don't know if it was 1100 allos or 1100 of those who entered the match as US seniors (including DOs).

Also, SOAP had 900 open spots according to what I've heard.

This is part of what happens when there are tons of new medical schools opening up without the residency spots going up proportionally.
Click to expand...

Of those 1100, however, it is worth noting that 300 "withdrew" and around 70 didn't submit a rank list. I'm not sure what withdrawal from the match means exactly, but I'm assuming its people that either decided to take a year for research or work or whatnot, or matched into an early specialty and withdrew from the nrmp. Of those that didn't submit a list, that could either be because they got 0 interviews (unlikely for most) or just didn't bother to withdraw. So the real number of unmatched US allo grads is likely closer to 700 (which is still a lot)
 
ophthope said:
Table 4 shows that there was a 35% increase in unmatched US seniors. That's a pretty huge change. The AAMC even issued a statement about how they were worried about it. Unfortunately I don't think you can say US students are going to be okay anymore.



That 1100 number only considers US seniors. There are DOs, IMGs, and US MD non-seniors in the SOAP too. The total number of people registered for the SOAP this year was closer to 9000. 10 applicants for every open spot in SOAP. I'd bet there are more than 200 unmatched US seniors this year, because surely some IMGs and DOs ended up getting a spot through the SOAP.
Click to expand...

😕

Did you look at the whole table.?

Unmatched PGY-1:
2013: 1,097
2012: 815
2011: 971
2010: 1,078
2009: 1,072

This year isn't really that different in the grad scheme of things. Especially when you consider 17,487 are applying for the match. A change of 100-250 people is more less a rounding error.

My guess is these people aren't 'normal' applicants. Either they have felonies or are tied to a single location. Or they are planning on reapplying to a competitive residency the next year. Or they failed every class five times and took 2 tries to pass all their boards.
 
DoctwoB said:
Of those 1100, however, it is worth noting that 300 "withdrew" and around 70 didn't submit a rank list.
Click to expand...

No, that 1,097 is only applicants who participated in the Match. The 300 who registered with the NRMP but withdrew and the 69 who registered but did not submit a rank list are not included in that number.
 
link2swim06 said:
😕

Did you look at the whole table.?

Unmatched PGY-1:
2013: 1,097
2012: 815
2011: 971
2010: 1,078
2009: 1,072

This year isn't really that different in the grad scheme of things. Especially when you consider 17,487 are applying for the match. A change of 100-250 people is more less a rounding error.

My guess is these people aren't 'normal' applicants. Either they have felonies or are tied to a single location. Or they are planning on reapplying to a competitive residency the next year. Or they failed every class five times and took 2 tries to pass all their boards.
Click to expand...

I wonder if the reason people are freaking out is that last year was the lowest unmatched rate for the last five years and they just didn't realize that. The unmatched rate may have gone up as well because applicants saw such a low unmatched rate from last year and weren't as conservative with their rank lists.

Although the number of active applicants did go up by 960 between this year and last year...finally feeling the effect of all those new medical schools opening up. For comparison the number of applicants only increased by 889 from 2009-2012.
 
link2swim06 said:
😕

Did you look at the whole table.?

Unmatched PGY-1:
2013: 1,097
2012: 815
2011: 971
2010: 1,078
2009: 1,072

This year isn't really that different in the grad scheme of things. Especially when you consider 17,487 are applying for the match. A change of 100-250 people is more less a rounding error.

My guess is these people aren't 'normal' applicants. Either they have felonies or are tied to a single location. Or they are planning on reapplying to a competitive residency the next year. Or they failed every class five times and took 2 tries to pass all their boards.
Click to expand...

Yeah I suppose if you look at the results long term it doesn't seem as terrible as if you just compare it from year to year. I just thought that with the 'all in' policy and the SOAP this year we were supposed to see an improvement, not a significant rise in unmatched US seniors compared to last year.
 
ophthope said:
Yeah I suppose if you look at the results long term it doesn't seem as terrible as if you just compare it from year to year. I just thought that with the 'all in' policy and the SOAP this year we were supposed to see an improvement, not a significant rise in unmatched US seniors compared to last year.
Click to expand...

I think more people will be umatched in the coming years. But if you look at med school matriculation numbers....the effect will not been seen in the match for a couple of years.
 
ophthope said:
Yeah I suppose if you look at the results long term it doesn't seem as terrible as if you just compare it from year to year. I just thought that with the 'all in' policy and the SOAP this year we were supposed to see an improvement, not a significant rise in unmatched US seniors compared to last year.
Click to expand...

Continuing to match in the 93-95% range as the number of US seniors rises and as more IMGs have to apply for the match because most of the program are now "all in" basically is an improvement -- the US seniors are holding their ground as everyone else takes a big hit. Additionally since SOAP is much more US friendly than the old scramble was (as it's no longer a race to get there first, something the typical IMG/FMG used to have an equal shot at) it's really quite a big win for US seniors on the whole. Are there more unmatched people in each category of applicant? Probably. But as a percentage, the US seniors are performing solidly in a tighter system. Bad time to be an IMG/FMG going forward.
 
This number is the total number of US allo grads that did not match at all, including the SOAP match.

http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2...h-day-numbers-tell-us-about-where-were-going/


I'm really interested to see what the NRMPs statistics are like after they come out. I think it will probably change the strategy of the application process in the next few years.

It should be noted that there were a couple of bills introduced a week or two ago in increase residency spots. (something like 3,000 spots) I'm not holding my breath though.
 
yoyostring said:
This number is the total number of US allo grads that did not match at all, including the SOAP match.

http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2...h-day-numbers-tell-us-about-where-were-going/


I'm really interested to see what the NRMPs statistics are like after they come out. I think it will probably change the strategy of the application process in the next few years.

It should be noted that there were a couple of bills introduced a week or two ago in increase residency spots. (something like 3,000 spots) I'm not holding my breath though.
Click to expand...

Reread Law2Doc's post. US grads are still in the safe zone. IMG/FMG feeling the crunch.

Scroll down and check out figure 1 in this NEJM article (these numbers do not include AOA spots):
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMhpr1107519

Also, increasing GME positions will not solve the maldistribution issue. It could, however, lead to the flooding of already saturated markets though. It's moot though; Washington isn't going to support a bill that leads to spending more bucks at this point, especially one concerning physicians.
 
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Dharma said:
Also, increasing GME positions will not solve the maldistribution issue. It could, however, lead to the flooding of already saturated markets though. It's moot though; Washington isn't going to support a bill that leads to spending more bucks at this point, especially one concerning physicians.
Click to expand...

I agree about worsening saturation. Does anyone here actually think there is a doctor shortage rather than a few areas with doctor "maldistribution" or is it just the AMA?
 
What years graduates do you guys think will start to feel the effects of the new med schools?
 
Last edited:
SLC said:
I always heard it would start with 2016 or 2017
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c/o 2017 checking in. scoring heavy on boards and taking a multi. good luck with my matching goals.

also, good discussion in this thread. thanks allo. pre-med forums make me forget productive answers exist..
 
But aren't spots increasing too? Though I'm sure at not the same rate. For example, as I posted in a thread in the EM forum, at the higher end of growth in specialties, there's been a 56% increase in EM spots in the last 10 years (1700+ from ~1100 between 2003-2013).
 
Lokhtar said:
But aren't spots increasing too? Though I'm sure at not the same rate. For example, as I posted in the other thread, at the higher end, there's been a 56% increase in EM spots in the last 10 years.
Click to expand...

No spots are just largely just being reassigned (ie, programs closing).

Since 2001, the number of first year residency positions has increased by 3,000, compared to an increase of over 7,000 applicants. The slow growth in residency positions is due to a 16 year freeze in Medicare support since 1997.
 
Of the people who didn't match first time in our program, three were in derm, one in ortho, one er and one ob. The ob person didn't even take step 2 before applying so I wasn't surprised with that one hahha.
 
Winged Scapula said:
No spots are just largely just being reassigned (ie, programs closing).

Since 2001, the number of first year residency positions has increased by 3,000, compared to an increase of over 7,000 applicants. The slow growth in residency positions is due to a 16 year freeze in Medicare support since 1997.
Click to expand...

Taken straight from the NRMP homepage

"The number of positions rose by almost 2,400 to an all-time high of 29,171 "

What does this mean then? I don't understand.
 
oculus said:
Taken straight from the NRMP homepage

"The number of positions rose by almost 2,400 to an all-time high of 29,171 "

What does this mean then? I don't understand.
Click to expand...

It means that all the positions were in the match this year (the "all-in" policy). It's an artificial elevation in the number of spots.
 
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