10% of incoming UG freshman make it into medical school. True or false?

[JJR22]

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I had an advisor tell me something interesting (although I am well aware that they hardly know what they're talking about, so this may not be true).

He said from a sample of size of 100 incoming pre-med freshman, only 10 would be expected to make it. He said about 20% (i.e. 20 students) would drop pre-med due to the courses being to rigorous (Ochem, Physics, Biochem, etc.). The MCAT is the next hurdle. The average applicant has an MCAT of 28, which is 65th percentile, meaning there would be about 28 remaining students. The national average is 40% acceptance, leaving the total at around 11 students that would actually make it in.

What do you guys think? I also find it funny that I told him I was thinking about considering changing majors and he told me this story, as in "yeah, you should do it, the chances of a pre-med making it in are low." Great advisor huh? 😀😀

 

[La Presse]

Lol....


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[ribbondino]

He may have said that because he realized your performance/motivation/whatever wasn't very good- or just being real with you. They are advisers, not encouragement. They want to be realistic.
I kind of agree with the numbers but not the distribution. I think way more people would drop premed as a major or whatever just because they changed their mind or didn't really want to work at it, not just the course rigors.

Don't worry about the stats, if you want to go into medicine just keep working hard. Prove to your adviser that you can be in that percentage of those who make it.

 

[Ravizzle]

Its definitely tough. Most of my fellow premed friends from freshman year have changed paths.

But if you have the desire AND are willing to put in the work, you will be just fine.

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[La Presse]

I heard about 40 percent matriculate yearly. 40 percent of applicants.


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[Spinach Dip]

Agreed on the point that pre-med advisers know nothing.... I agree 100% with that

But as for the 10% number.... I'd have to say LESS than that number actually get into med school. I can't say exactly what % makes it, but I can give 2 concrete numbers that I have always considered very telling:

-The average MCAT of matriculants is 31. 80% score less than that. Now, obviously some people with 28's get in and some with 32's don't, but for everyone who scores a 30 or less, they are behind the national average of those that will get in.

-I don't know if this is true with other universities, but at mine, Ochem alone had a 70% attrition rate.... meaning only 30% of those who started the first quarter actually received a passing grade in all three quarters.



Oh, and the numbers could change greatly if you decide to include or exclude all the freshmen who say "yeah, I'm pre med!" but switch majors after getting a C in Bio 101.

My guess is 5% or less.

 

[ShenanigansMD]

The pre-med definition is so ambiguous that I can't take these stats seriously. For some people it's a phase, for others they like to go back and forth between pre-med and pre-law because they're pre-curious, and for others still they're just trying to impress people at house parties.

 

[katymalady]

Are you a freshman? As I recall, I remember having this old 10% statistic spewed at me multiple times by my professors, lab coordinators, dept. advisor, etc. Don't take it too seriously because the numbers are probably made up. But the truth is many students do drop pre-med, many students do bomb the MCAT, and many students don't make it to med school and end up switching career plans. But with hard work and enthusiasm, you'll make it, as evidenced by the thousands of students who do attend medical school each year.

Don't worry, your advisor's not necessarily a big jerk, and you're not necessarily doing badly. It's just something that they tell you so that you're willing to keep your options open in case you realize in the future that medicine is not for you.

 

[JJR22]

He may have said that because he realized your performance/motivation/whatever wasn't very good- or just being real with you. They are advisers, not encouragement. They want to be realistic.
I kind of agree with the numbers but not the distribution. I think way more people would drop premed as a major or whatever just because they changed their mind or didn't really want to work at it, not just the course rigors.

Don't worry about the stats, if you want to go into medicine just keep working hard. Prove to your adviser that you can be in that percentage of those who make it.

My GPA is between a 3.7 - 3.8 so I don't think it was necessarily about my performance, but I guess he saw the lack of motivation in me to continue, perhaps you're right.

 

[JJR22]

Are you a freshman? As I recall, I remember having this old 10% statistic spewed at me multiple times by my professors, lab coordinators, dept. advisor, etc. Don't take it too seriously because the numbers are probably made up. But the truth is many students do drop pre-med, many students do bomb the MCAT, and many students don't make it to med school and end up switching career plans. But with hard work and enthusiasm, you'll make it, as evidenced by the thousands of students who do attend medical school each year.

Don't worry, your advisor's not necessarily a big jerk, and you're not necessarily doing badly. It's just something that they tell you so that you're willing to keep your options open in case you realize in the future that medicine is not for you.

Nope, I graduated, actually. Just went back for advice (even though I knew I'd walk out dumber).

 

[Spinach Dip]

My GPA is between a 3.7 - 3.8 so I don't think it was necessarily about my performance, but I guess he saw the lack of motivation in me to continue, perhaps you're right.

You honestly think he was trying to dissuade you?

If you do, I encourage you to ignore everything he said for the simple fact that he is an idiot.

Nope, I graduated, actually. Just went back for advice (even though I knew I'd walk out dumber).

Ah, already graduated? A post-bacc, I suppose? In that case, his statistics about freshmen have 0 bearing on you.

 

[JJR22]

You honestly think he was trying to dissuade you?

If you do, I encourage you to ignore everything he said for the simple fact that he is an idiot.




Ah, already graduated? A post-bacc, I suppose? In that case, his statistics about freshmen have 0 bearing on you.

Thanks for the kind words. My undergraduate GPA was the 3.75, I'm not doing a post-bacc. He was talking to me about my MCAT specifically (I scored poorly and don't have much motivation to retake). That's where all these wild numbers came in, but it looks like there is some truth behind his words. Imagine that - a pre med advisor was relatively right for once! 😀 😀

 

[cuculici1]

It's impossible to know the exact statistic since many freshman come in as "pre-meds" and drop it quickly once they realize that getting into med school involves doing well in no fluff science classes and isn't like an episode of Grey's Anatomy or Nip Tuck. My guess it would be even less than that, but it's impossible to say.

 

[IncognitoGuy]

Anecdotally, there were something like four or five out of 20ish kids on the floor of my Dorm freshman year who were pre-med. I'm the only one who kept with it, as everybody else ended up switching majors/pre-professional things. I know of two who did it because of the course rigor of sciences, while two others simply changed interests.

And in terms of the classes I've had, I was chatting with a friend yesterday who is also applying and we were attempting to track those who were pre-med our freshman year and in our pre-req classes and their current track. Many of them didn't even make it to taking the MCAT as they had switched plans by then, and there was a similar trend concerning Orgo as well.

I wouldn't put much stock in statistics of this - there's simply too much subjectivity when it comes to students dropping classes/changing interests/etc, but IMO there do exist very real bottlenecks that significantly reduce the dedicated pre-med population.

 

[music2doc]

A better way of looking at it is by students who were serious enough to take the MCAT as it means they got through the first 3 yrs. Of those, ~30% will matriculate.

The other stats are simply too subjective and school dependent to be of any value.

 

[red doctober]

The advisor was probably making up number in order to enforce a point, that the majority incoming freshman pre-meds don't remain pre-med throughout college and that only a percentage of those who do end up making it into med school. I think a problem with putting it this way is that it's a bit much to ask a high-school senior what he/she wants to do with the rest of their life without having taken a single college class. Many probably have just entertained the idea of being a doctor and use pre-med as a fall-back, and either find they aren't committed enough or aren't interested enough to go through with it or find something else that they find more interesting. If you are absolutely positive that you want to be a doctor and are willing to go through with all the challenges that the process entails, then you've already made it through one bottleneck.

 

[45408]

Are you a freshman? As I recall, I remember having this old 10% statistic spewed at me multiple times by my professors, lab coordinators, dept. advisor, etc. Don't take it too seriously because the numbers are probably made up. But the truth is many students do drop pre-med, many students do bomb the MCAT, and many students don't make it to med school and end up switching career plans. But with hard work and enthusiasm, you'll make it, as evidenced by the thousands of students who do attend medical school each year.

I think the number is probably pretty accurate actually, and it takes a little more than "hard work and enthusiasm," as evidenced by the 60% of applicants who don't get into med school, to say nothing of the tens of thousands who didn't even apply after taking the MCAT.

You need to be highly motivated, with a goal in sight and a plan in mind, right from the beginning, if you want to optimize your chances.

 

[wizedw]

At my school I was told that half of our 5000 person class comes in day 1 of freshman year saying they want to pursue premed. Last year 150 people applies to med school. 75 got in. From that its about 3%. But thats taking into account the people who are premed for about 5 minutes into the first bio 1 lecture before they drop.

 

[music2doc]

I think the number is probably pretty accurate actually, and it takes a little more than "hard work and enthusiasm," as evidenced by the 60% of applicants who don't get into med school, to say nothing of the tens of thousands who didn't even apply after taking the MCAT.

You need to be highly motivated, with a goal in sight and a plan in mind, right from the beginning, if you want to optimize your chances.

This. It definitely takes more than "hard work and enthusiasm." Keep in mind that any med student will tell you getting in was the easy part. (And probably any resident would tell us med school was the easy part.) The truth is you're competing with an elite group to get in and a much more elite group to get through med school. The whole "95% of med students become doctors" thing is a bit misleading. The truth is that being in the bottom 3% of my class probably wouldn't take much (our number is 97%).

 

[cuculici1]

I think the number is probably pretty accurate actually, and it takes a little more than "hard work and enthusiasm," as evidenced by the 60% of applicants who don't get into med school, to say nothing of the tens of thousands who didn't even apply after taking the MCAT.

You need to be highly motivated, with a goal in sight and a plan in mind, right from the beginning, if you want to optimize your chances.

Yep, think of it this way. Screw up one semester or year and it becomes a significantly harder uphill battle to get in, and you definitely reduce your margin for error going forward. You have to stay on it until you apply basically. There may be some exceptions in terms of workload/effort for some people, but my undergrad experience indicated that this was usually the case. I had one bad semester which put a significant dent in my GPA.

 

[Stumpyman]

The numbers vary by school (some small schools have a much larger number of freshmen who make it to the application stage and eventually get in), but in general, the adviser seems correct on how few freshmen actually make it.

 

[Spinach Dip]

Thanks for the kind words. My undergraduate GPA was the 3.75, I'm not doing a post-bacc. He was talking to me about my MCAT specifically (I scored poorly and don't have much motivation to retake). That's where all these wild numbers came in, but it looks like there is some truth behind his words. Imagine that - a pre med advisor was relatively right for once! 😀 😀

Ah. I see.

In that case, may I ask you what your MCAT was? No need to be shy.

 

[pre med 2014]

This. It definitely takes more than "hard work and enthusiasm." Keep in mind that any med student will tell you getting in was the easy part. (And probably any resident would tell us med school was the easy part.) The truth is you're competing with an elite group to get in and a much more elite group to get through med school. The whole "95% of med students become doctors" thing is a bit misleading. The truth is that being in the bottom 3% of my class probably wouldn't take much (our number is 97%).

I feel like if you're in 200K debt you're going to be working damn hard not to fall into the bottom 3%

The Internet world is so different. When I was in undergrad I thought every single Bio1 student was a pre med gunner. Now I'm finding out they all flake out supposedly?

 

[LizzyM]

I've been thinking about changing my sig line to


"Pre-meds: most of us will be going pro in something other than medicine."

Cruel but true.

 

[Mehd School]

Obviously it's a huge generalization, but my experience has been somewhat close to that. I had over 100 self proclaimed premed students in my Bio 1/ Chem 1 classes, and only about 25 of us have made it to the professional-school focused upper level courses. I expect about half of us will get a seat somewhere.

Granted, I wasn't technically "pre-med" when I took my first year of electives.

 

[MedPR]

Obviously it's a huge generalization, but my experience has been somewhat close to that. I had over 100 self proclaimed premed students in my Bio 1/ Chem 1 classes, and only about 25 of us have made it to the professional-school focused upper level courses. I expect about half of us will get a seat somewhere.

Granted, I wasn't technically "pre-med" when I took my first year of electives.

Yea, there were ~300 pre-meds in Bio 1 at my school (2 groups of 150) and by Junior year there were only around 50. However, I was still a "pre-med" and my GPA was ~2.6. So I'm sure there were less than 50 who actually ended up matriculating.

 

[Drrrrrr. Celty]

There's really no way to estimate or count the numbers, especially with plenty entering premedery their 2nd, 3rd or even 4th year. Just know that a lot of people are weeded out, so spend some time caring about yourself and your grades.

 

[dbeast]

I've been thinking about changing my sig line to


"Pre-meds: most of us will be going pro in something other than medicine."

Cruel but true.

Also include the Enterprise rent-a-car commercial saying they hire more college athletes than any other company.

 

[Mehd School]

Yea, there were ~300 pre-meds in Bio 1 at my school (2 groups of 150) and by Junior year there were only around 50. However, I was still a "pre-med" and my GPA was ~2.6. So I'm sure there were less than 50 who actually ended up matriculating.

I will say, though, that I go to a regional state school where there isn't much competition. We deflate grades big time, but people don't seem to ace the MCAT all that often. I know a couple 28 matriculants, a 27, 26, and a 31 that is some sort of a legend at my school.


This is completely my opinion, but I feel that if you can make it to the challenging upper level science courses (Histology, Physiology, Comparative Anatomy, Physical Chemistry, Biochemistry, etc) and do well in them (B+ or higher), you've probably got the brains for med school somewhere.

 

[45408]

I feel like if you're in 200K debt you're going to be working damn hard not to fall into the bottom 3%

Someone has to be at the bottom. We're all in debt, so the bottom 3% (or bottom 30%) is going to be full of people who owe plenty of money too.

The Internet world is so different. When I was in undergrad I thought every single Bio1 student was a pre med gunner. Now I'm finding out they all flake out supposedly?

This is news? My chemistry 1 class had >200 people in it, and it seemed like half of them raised their hand to say they were pre-med. Organic 2 had 80 people in it. Of that group, most were going to grad school or something other than medicine. I knew people who tried taking the MCAT without ever studying for it. This trail is littered with pre-meds who didn't/couldn't hack it, or they realize how many other options are out there that are more in line with their life goals, and they re-direct. Nothing wrong with that, but I'd think it's completely true that ~10% end up as physicians.

 

[deleted127837]

Someone has to be at the bottom. We're all in debt, so the bottom 3% (or bottom 30%) is going to be full of people who owe plenty of money too.


This is news? My chemistry 1 class had >200 people in it, and it seemed like half of them raised their hand to say they were pre-med. Organic 2 had 80 people in it. Of that group, most were going to grad school or something other than medicine. I knew people who tried taking the MCAT without ever studying for it. This trail is littered with pre-meds who didn't/couldn't hack it, or they realize how many other options are out there that are more in line with their life goals, and they re-direct. Nothing wrong with that, but I'd think it's completely true that ~10% end up as physicians.

And to the same point, the trail has a few business/history-type majors who decide to go to medical school and manage to get in within 2 years of making the decision, who are outside most pre-med distributions.

 

[music2doc]

I feel like if you're in 200K debt you're going to be working damn hard not to fall into the bottom 3%

The Internet world is so different. When I was in undergrad I thought every single Bio1 student was a pre med gunner. Now I'm finding out they all flake out supposedly?

And therein lies the reason for my statement that it is so easy to end up in that bottom 3%. Every school is different, but at mine we are taking the equivalent of about 32-36 units/semester for the first two years. The material is also significantly more dense, complex, and detail-oriented than anything offered at the UG-level. Despite the difficulty, our class averages are usually right around 90%. We are pass/fail (pass ≥ 65 + StdError + 0.1 or usually ~67-68%), yet almost no one scores below 75. Being in the bottom 3% of your class when the academically weakest person in your class was in about the 70th percentile of his UG and graduated Cum Laude and is working his/her butt off to ensure he/she is NOT in the bottom quartile of the class is suddenly not so unimaginable. Someone has to be at the bottom. And chances are always higher than we would like that that person will turn out to be you!

 

[JJR22]

Ah. I see.

In that case, may I ask you what your MCAT was? No need to be shy.

Sure thing: 12/5/11 (on my second try). I did poorly in verbal the first time around, as well. I think he was implying that the MCAT just may not be my test and I should keep my mind open to other careers.

 

[Perrotfish]

This. It definitely takes more than "hard work and enthusiasm." Keep in mind that any med student will tell you getting in was the easy part. (And probably any resident would tell us med school was the easy part.)

I wouldn't say either of those things.

 

[music2doc]

I wouldn't say either of those things.

Really?!

I feel like the UG stuff was kind of a joke by comparison to med school. IMO, the only difference is that most who would not have made it have already been weeded out. For me, med school is the first time I have ever actually been challenged academically and I've had others say the same thing. (I went to a flagship state school for my prereqs and before that a top private LAC for UG, so presumably my courses were not "easy.")

 

[deleted393595]

I had an advisor tell me something interesting (although I am well aware that they hardly know what they're talking about, so this may not be true).

He said from a sample of size of 100 incoming pre-med freshman, only 10 would be expected to make it. He said about 20% (i.e. 20 students) would drop pre-med due to the courses being to rigorous (Ochem, Physics, Biochem, etc.). The MCAT is the next hurdle. The average applicant has an MCAT of 28, which is 65th percentile, meaning there would be about 28 remaining students. The national average is 40% acceptance, leaving the total at around 11 students that would actually make it in.

What do you guys think? I also find it funny that I told him I was thinking about considering changing majors and he told me this story, as in "yeah, you should do it, the chances of a pre-med making it in are low." Great advisor huh? 😀😀

If you're a freshman posting here at SDN, I can guarantee you that you are part of that 10%

 

[KnuxNole]

IMO, getting in to med school in the first place is harder than med school as a whole. It's a marathon where after you find the right pace(which can be a struggle at first for a lot), you keep at it till the end. Remember, if you got accepted, you have the ability to make it through.

 

[MedPR]

Remember, if you got accepted, you have the ability to make it through.

That's what I tell myself when I have doubts about being smart enough. Idk if it's true though.

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[EarthtoneJon]

He said from a sample of size of 100 incoming pre-med freshman, only 10 would be expected to make it.

It's a good thing you are a solitary person, and only 1 of you has to be successful! It's a lot easier than worrying about a sample size of 100- who knows WHAT they do with their time.

Here's a stat I made up: 76% of stats pertain to you.

 

[EarthtoneJon]

That's what I tell myself when I have doubts about being smart enough. Idk if it's true though.

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+1

This is what keeps me excited about medical school. They don't (or very rarely) accept people who can't do it.

 

[Spinach Dip]

Sure thing: 12/5/11 (on my second try). I did poorly in verbal the first time around, as well. I think he was implying that the MCAT just may not be my test and I should keep my mind open to other careers.

Okay, here's my thought:

Your PS and BS are excellent. You may be able to push them a point or two higher if you study a lot.... But your VR is bad. (I'm sure you know that already.) You need to bring this up if you are thinking about med school.

Now, I haven't seen you history (ECs and all that), but you have a good GPA and a bachelors degree already. The only thing in your way (as far as I can see) is your verbal score. So that's what you have to focus on. If you can bring that up to 9 or 10, you have a good chance of getting in.

You say you don't want to take the MCAT again, but you have to realize that, if you want to go to med school, you have to. And you have to do well at verbal. Think of it this way: MCAT verbal is the only thing standing between you and med school. If that doesn't give you enough drive to go do it again, you need to look into other career options.

 

[Lucky Louie]

Most freshmen change their intended majors. Not sure what the statistic is, but it's quite high.


Some go from chem ---> bio or from psych ----> woman's studies or from math ---> law or even from marketing ---> economics. It's not just premed or engineering students who rethink their career goals.

 

[Perrotfish]

Really?!

I feel like the UG stuff was kind of a joke by comparison to med school. IMO, the only difference is that most who would not have made it have already been weeded out. For me, med school is the first time I have ever actually been challenged academically and I've had others say the same thing. (I went to a flagship state school for my prereqs and before that a top private LAC for UG, so presumably my courses were not "easy.")

I think the minimum amount of effort to graduate is a lot less than the minimum amount of effort required to get in in the first place. Most medical students that just barely made the cutoffs to get in to medical school will have a 20 point buffer between them and actually failing out of medical school. Medical school and residency are desigened to pass almost everyone, premed is designed to weed out almost everyone. YMMV, of course.

 

[Irish Football]

This is a fun little quick fact to know. Especially if told in a casual way to someone who knows you've been accepted to med school. #subtlebrag 👍

 

[deleted393595]

I heard about 40 percent matriculate yearly. 40 percent of applicants.


Sent from my iPad using SDN Mobile app.

I've heard a similar number at mine too. And that number does sound a bit fishy...

 

[music2doc]

I think the minimum amount of effort to graduate is a lot less than the minimum amount of effort required to get in in the first place. Most medical students that just barely made the cutoffs to get in to medical school will have a 20 point buffer between them and actually failing out of medical school. Medical school and residency are desigened to pass almost everyone, premed is designed to weed out almost everyone. YMMV, of course.

I guess that's fair. I suppose when I talk about getting through med school, I am talking about staying in the top 50% and having a solid shot at most specialties and at least decent to strong programs in less competitive specialties. I'm not really talking about "just passing" because I have yet to meet a student who is "just passing." Most everyone wants to be in the upper half (at least as of now). Sure, some know it's not going to happen but few have given up trying (hence our class averages of 85-95% in most classes).

 

[JOHNNYCAGE]

Sure, some know it's not going to happen but few have given up trying (hence our class averages of 85-95% in most classes).

If your class average is anywhere near a 95% your exams are no where near hard enough.

 

[music2doc]

If your class average is anywhere near a 95% your exams are no where near hard enough.

They've hit 90+% on a couple of exams (once each in pop med and biochem, I think). Otherwise, it's more like 85% most of the time. Considering that our Step 1 average hits 230 pretty much every year despite an average incoming MCAT of 30, I think we're doing okay on the difficult test and teaching material adequately thing.