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It's school-specific & likely only the adcom knows the answer, sadly.
my guess is if someone withdraws the school will find one with similar background to replace him to make sure the diversity or make up of the class they want, if none is similar than definitely stats
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To this add the likelihood of the person coming. For example, someone who lives in ILL is more likely to come to U ILL or Loyola than a Floridian or Californian.
@War of Arts has it theoretically correct. Every school deals with this differently. Unranked waitlists may favor applicants by demographics (a female replaces a female, an in-state replaces an in-state). Within each demographic group, there may be some sub-sorting by some metric (GPA/MCAT). You should ask your admissions directors/recruiters.
It is not as if there is a one-for-one fill. If after the dust settles there are 2 or 3 empty spaces, sex/gender might be part of the consideration if the class is wildly imbalanced. This can be for the practical matter that anatomy lab locker rooms end up overcrowded if the class is out of balance given the facilities. More often, there will be an attempt to select someone likely to say yes (particularly as we draw closer to the first day of orientation) and who brings something otherwise missing from the class, geographically, by major or undergrad school, etc. As you can see, aside from expressing interest (being someone likely to say yes) much of what might make you a good choice from the waitlist is out of your control at the point that you go on the waitlist and if you are a woman from South Dakota who majored in Russian at Harvard it might be your lucky day. 😉
Proximity and stats. Urbana is closer to Chicago than Springfield, after all
Who do YOU think will be more likely to attend?????
Admissions Deans have historical data to back their decisions up
In my experience, it is the one who has more recently expressed ongoing interest. The school wants to get a "yes". How is that most likely to happen?
If we sent in a letter of intent in January (genuinely would attend as top choice) to a school and has now been placed on their waitlist with three acceptances at other schools, is it wise or simply annoying to send another letter of intent to express continuous interest?
How do you know or find out whether a school’s WL is ranked or unranked?
In all likelihood, you won't know. I would guess that the schools who accept no letters of interest or updates after interview are working with a strictly ranked waitlist and others are not.
