2019-nCoV

[EvoMed]

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This type of outbreak underscores the need for physician scientists!! At this critical moment, medicine seeks to understand both the biology of a novel virus and the etiology of the disease it causes.

> Anyone here working at hospital that has confirmed cases? What are you seeing???
> What tests are being used, what are pros or cons of each? protein (ELISA) vs DNA (PCR) based tests? Are there socio-political factors going into availability of tests?
> The question regarding whether or not society is "overreacting" is largely opinion based at this time; but nonetheless it is an engaging conversation (imo).

 

[Sarasa Zebra]

1. I can't speak from firsthand experiences so won't comment.
2. Pretty sure all of the tests are going to be PCR-based, and it seems like all of the currently available ones are some form of PCR. ELISA's just straight-up overkill; more importantly, ELISA would be much less sensitive than a PCR on viral RNA. There's a diagnostic tool called SHERLOCK (a CRISPR-Cas13 system) that looks quite promising for ultrasensitive viral RNA detection on a paper strip, but I have yet to hear progress on this being translated to use in COVID-19. So in short, almost certainly PCR of some kind. Sociopolitical factors are not within my scope to give an expert opinion on, but I do think that the fact that many other developed countries like South Korea being able to readily test people - whilst the USA is heavily struggling to meet the demand of COVID-19 testing - does warrant some attention.
3. Not overreacting. People shrugging it off as "just another flu" really do not know what they're saying. This is, at least, very infectious "pneumonia." The only "overreacting" is racism and discrimination targeted toward Asian communities, but my opinion is that countries have taken the necessary precautions for something as threatening as this.

 

[deleted728364]

I’m curious what sort of prediction models can be constructed with currently available data. Can we estimate the disease-curve in the US based trends in countries that were similarly slow to respond (e.g. Italy)?


I wonder what ad-hoc metrics for social distancing can be used to estimate how well we’re curbing transmission. According to Nate Silver, public polling is slow but sharp increases in stuff like restaurant reservation cancellations (somehow there’s available data on this) show that the public is making an honest effort in social distancing.


I have a hunch that everyone on this forum is an expert on social distancing so I’m curious to hear your thoughts.

 

[Fencer]

The best infographic was presented in the British Financial Times - Redirect Notice
This is the rate of growth after 100 cases were confirmed in the country. Horizontal is time in days and vertical is log scale of number of cases.

The NYT also had an opinion piece from a Hong Kong Epidemiology professor about what we can learn from the 3 countries with lesser growth: Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan (not in the graph). Easy... it is an early response by determined/competent leaders.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-best-response.htm

 

[EvoMed]

I’m curious what sort of prediction models can be constructed with currently available data. Can we estimate the disease-curve in the US based trends in countries that were similarly slow to respond (e.g. Italy)?


I wonder what ad-hoc metrics for social distancing can be used to estimate how well we’re curbing transmission. According to Nate Silver, public polling is slow but sharp increases in stuff like restaurant reservation cancellations (somehow there’s available data on this) show that the public is making an honest effort in social distancing.


I have a hunch that everyone on this forum is an expert on social distancing so I’m curious to hear your thoughts.

The government in the UK had been enacting almost zero policy to mitigate transmission (in favor of preserving economic stability). Yesterday they took an abrupt change of course, it seems like part of this decision was because of the findings of these modeling experiments:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[hello_wind]

The government in the UK had been enacting almost zero policy to mitigate transmission (in favor of preserving economic stability). Yesterday they took an abrupt change of course, it seems like part of this decision was because of the findings of these modeling experiments:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

I was intrigued by the recommendation to social distance (among the other measures) until a vaccine is developed, which won't be for another 12-18 months. I wonder how this will affect not only research rotation and classes for incoming students but also interviews for this coming cycle's applicants. I'm also a little disappointed that I won't be able to travel across the country to see loved ones before matriculation.