521 MCAT Frequency

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TheDappGoesWild

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To adcoms at top schools:

1) Are 521s becoming more common? Have you come across more over the last 2 years?

2) Do you think MCAT medians will plateau at 522?

3) Is a 520 still enough for an ORM to get into T10 schools?

@LizzyM
 
TheDappGoesWild said:
Given the new 522 median, I’d argue the game is becoming more like “High Card Wins”
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It's only 522 for 3 schools man, and for two of those schools (WUSTL and Yale), the median matriculant is a 521. If anything it may be better for higher stat applicants as these schools are starting to hog the high stat applicants more and more
 
If we call 520 the top 1% and if 50,000 people take the exam each year then 500 have 520 or higher. Assuming that they all applied and were admitted, that's 500 people divided by 20 schools or about 25 people per school. Now, clearly some of the schools are matriculating more than their share, bumping the number matriculating to 50 or higher (assuming a class size of 100 and a reported median MCAT of 521 or more for matriculants). However, and this just dawned on me, if 521 or 522 is the median for admitted students (not matriculants) all of the schools can be admitting a few hundred of these high flyers and reporting their scores for "admitted students" but in the end, each one can attend only one school. It does, however, tell you that the likelihood of being interviewed and admitted is going to favor the high MCAT folks while, in the end, plenty of applicants with scores < 520 will end up matriculating at those schools.
 
When I look at these stats and remember that almost everyone who takes the MCAT is a decent college student, I am bemused that anyone tries to become a medical doctor. I am beginning to think that people undertake this path only because they don't understand what they are getting into when they start and, later on, have too much invested to quit. Good luck all you big-brained optimists!
 
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TheDappGoesWild said:
To adcoms at top schools:

1) Are 521s becoming more common? Have you come across more over the last 2 years?

2) Do you think MCAT medians will plateau at 522?

3) Is a 520 still enough for an ORM to get into T10 schools?

@LizzyM
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I can speak with regards to #3: in my small cohort of 4 friends that made it to med school from undergrad, we were all ORM except 1 and all had 518-526 scores. 2 of us applied “traditionally” while 2 took gap years before applying. We all interviewed at over 10 schools including “top 10s”. All of us except 1 had multiple “top” acceptances and of course could only commit to 1 place.

With regards to #1, given that percentiles is what really matters I don’t see how 521s can become “more common” except in the sense that places like *ahem* NYU etc. are prioritizing exceptionally high scores for whatever reason (because they can). Having said that, I felt the same way when I applied. I mean, it was rare/unheard of to see >38-39 scores on the old mcat yet somehow we all got scores in or above that range when we took it with a few weeks of studying but with similar backgrounds/foundations.
 
LizzyM said:
If we call 520 the top 1% and if 50,000 people take the exam each year then 500 have 520 or higher. Assuming that they all applied and were admitted, that's 500 people divided by 20 schools or about 25 people per school. Now, clearly some of the schools are matriculating more than their share, bumping the number matriculating to 50 or higher (assuming a class size of 100 and a reported median MCAT of 521 or more for matriculants). However, and this just dawned on me, if 521 or 522 is the median for admitted students (not matriculants) all of the schools can be admitting a few hundred of these high flyers and reporting their scores for "admitted students" but in the end, each one can attend only one school. It does, however, tell you that the likelihood of being interviewed and admitted is going to favor the high MCAT folks while, in the end, plenty of applicants with scores < 520 will end up matriculating at those schools.
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Problem is the US News rankings only take into account matriculant medians.

Also, if you look at matriculant median MCATs, NYU still has a 522. Yale, WashU, Penn, UChicago also have 521 matriculant medians. ~300 students with 521 or higher are enrolling in just those 5 schools alone. Taking into account the rest of the T20, clearly more than 500 people with >520 are applying (I'd say more along the lines of ~2,500 applicants).

Which returns me to my original question, have you noticed more 521s over the past 3 years? And are 521s still rare at your school?
 
TheDappGoesWild said:
To adcoms at top schools:

1) Are 521s becoming more common? Have you come across more over the last 2 years?

2) Do you think MCAT medians will plateau at 522?

3) Is a 520 still enough for an ORM to get into T10 schools?

@LizzyM
Click to expand...
1) Maybe
2) No
3) Yes
 
kb1900 said:
I can speak with regards to #3: in my small cohort of 4 friends that made it to med school from undergrad, we were all ORM except 1 and all had 518-526 scores. 2 of us applied “traditionally” while 2 took gap years before applying. We all interviewed at over 10 schools including “top 10s”. All of us except 1 had multiple “top” acceptances and of course could only commit to 1 place.

With regards to #1, given that percentiles is what really matters I don’t see how 521s can become “more common” except in the sense that places like *ahem* NYU etc. are prioritizing exceptionally high scores for whatever reason (because they can). Having said that, I felt the same way when I applied. I mean, it was rare/unheard of to see >38-39 scores on the old mcat yet somehow we all got scores in or above that range when we took it with a few weeks of studying but with similar backgrounds/foundations.
Click to expand...

The percentiles are inaccurate. If you look at the histogram provided by AAMC, >521 is more like top 2% and >520 is ~2.5%. Why AAMC reports the former as top 1% is beyond me, but just stack the columns on the histogram yourself and you'll see.
 
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LizzyM said:
OK, so 2.5% of 50,000 is 1,250. Divide by 20 schools and you get 65 for each school if distributed evenly. We know that some of the top schools take more than their share and others don't. It adds up for me.
Click to expand...

The 50,000 that apply don't represent all those who took the MCAT.

For instance, let's say only half of people who took the MCAT choose to apply. That means the 50,000 applying are already in the top 50% of MCAT scorers. Thus it's more like 5% of 50,000 who have >520. In that case you have 2,500 applicants with >520, or 130 for each T20 (which is more than these schools can accommodate).

Which brings me back to the original question, in your experience as an adcom at a top tier school, would you say >520 scores are still rare and attractive to adcoms, or has the line now shifted to ~523/524?
 
Well, if we don't know how many take the MCAT, we can't say how many are in the top x%.
Am I seeing more 520s? Yes, but that is because my school is being selective in who is sent for review. I think that applicants are also being more selective (we are getting more applicants who have been strategic in targeting their applications). We may be getting fewer <510s but I wouldn't know because they never make it far along enough in the process to reach my desktop.

520 seems to be a threshold. It is a pity really because part of the new MCAT was supposed to be setting a floor above which an applicant had the academic prowess to do well in medical school. Anything at or above 500 was supposed to be "good enough" and the decision to admit was supposed to rise or fall on other attributes in a holistic review. However, as long as the MCAT is even 1% of the USNews rankings, there will be those Deans who will insist on nothing but the "best" applicants to keep them at the top of the heap.
 
From my experience talking to multiple 520+ scorers, what I've seen is that it's not always guaranteed acceptances at multiple T20s. Instead, what's more common is interviews from multiple "top tier" schools and acceptances from only a handful. Adcoms at these schools probably see so many that they are picky in choosing who to accept using a holistic process. Anecdotally, the 520 scorers from my undergrad (large state school) seem to mostly matriculate to our state's medical schools. Given that the median MCAT score is ~521 at some of these schools, I suspect they have a large applicant pool of 520+ scorers, causing some adcoms use MCAT score as a screen and determining acceptances based on additional factor. A interesting thing to think about is how the reputation of a schools liking high stats can increase the number of high stat applicants, allowing these schools to be more selective among high stat scorers.
 
LizzyM said:
If we call 520 the top 1% and if 50,000 people take the exam each year then 500 have 520 or higher. Assuming that they all applied and were admitted, that's 500 people divided by 20 schools or about 25 people per school. Now, clearly some of the schools are matriculating more than their share, bumping the number matriculating to 50 or higher (assuming a class size of 100 and a reported median MCAT of 521 or more for matriculants). However, and this just dawned on me, if 521 or 522 is the median for admitted students (not matriculants) all of the schools can be admitting a few hundred of these high flyers and reporting their scores for "admitted students" but in the end, each one can attend only one school. It does, however, tell you that the likelihood of being interviewed and admitted is going to favor the high MCAT folks while, in the end, plenty of applicants with scores < 520 will end up matriculating at those schools.
Click to expand...
Only 500 people with >520? Every kid and their son has a 515+ over on reddit.
 
Sunbodi said:
Only 500 people with >520? Every kid and their son has a 515+ over on reddit.
Click to expand...
515 is ‘only’ 94%, so out of 80,000 test takers that is still 4,800 applicants. And SDN/Reddit tend to attract more high stats applicants. Which makes sense.
 
n=4, but let me share my side of the story. Three of my really good friends and I all received 521+ on the MCAT (521, 523, 524, 525). We all had GPA's ranging from 3.6~3.8, graduated from a top 10 school, checked all the "pre-med" boxes, and had extensive research. Out of the four, three people will be matriculating in mid-tier programs, and one is going to a T20 school. Some of us received interviews from T20's and some T10's, but this is just how things worked out and we're all content and excited to be future doctors. My point being, 520+ will not guarantee you a T20 acceptance, and even though it seems like some med schools are stat-hoes, most schools are holistic. The applicant pool has been expanding and becoming more and more competitive, which is the result of the rise in median MCAT scores and why people who seem to be extremely competitive still don't get in. My last point is something I learned the hard way: never try to understand or figure out med school admissions, because it is impossible and a waste of time. Spend that time in improving your application and just ride the wave.
 
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manofsteel9 said:
n=4, but let me share my side of the story. Three of my really good friends and I all received 521+ on the MCAT (521, 523, 524, 525). We all had GPA's ranging from 3.6~3.8, graduated from a top 10 school, checked all the "pre-med" boxes, and had extensive research. Out of the four, three people will be matriculating in mid-tier programs, and one is going to a T20 school. Some of us received interviews from T20's and some T10's, but this is just how things worked out and we're all content and excited to be future doctors. My point being, 520+ will not guarantee you a T20 acceptance, and even though it seems like some med schools are stat-hoes, most schools are holistic. The applicant pool has been expanding and becoming more and more competitive, which is the result of the rise in median MCAT scores and why people who seem to be extremely competitive still don't get in. My last point is something I learned the hard way: never try to understand or figure out med school admissions, because it is impossible and a waste of time. Spend that time in improving your application and just ride the wave.
Click to expand...
High-Stat hoes would make a great Indie Album name.
 
Walter Raleigh said:
I don't think MCAT medians can get much above 523, though. Maybe they'll plateau at 524, but no higher.
Click to expand...
I wonder what portion of high stats applicants would choose their own state school/a lower tiered school based on location/support network available? I may be different due to having a child, but if I were in a situation where I had to choose between any of the T5s and my state school I would choose the state school due to proximity of family.
 
TheDappGoesWild said:
And how many of those below 512 advisees are ORMs from middle class backgrounds?
Click to expand...
Hey, they could've been military veterans. The Army medic with a Silver Star and 4.0 has a decent chance at top schools with a 510. They could have otherwise-stellar ECs, and thus have the low MCATs overlooked.
 
Walter Raleigh said:
Hey, they could've been military veterans. The Army medic with a Silver Star and 4.0 has a decent chance at top schools with a 510. They could have otherwise-stellar ECs, and thus have the low MCATs overlooked.
Click to expand...

Exactly my point...I'm saying you don't get into a T20 as a middle class ORM unless you have >520.
 
TheDappGoesWild said:
Yes, but the VAST majority of middle class ORMs do not go into the military. Hence "middle class".
Click to expand...

Middle class and military service have nothing to do with each other. I think you are confusing middle class with "cookie cutter".

To get into a top school you have to be a top applicant. Some contribute with very high MCAT scores (520+) and some don't. I personally know multiple people who are ORM with MCAT less than 520 that got into at least 1 top 20. If you are a traditional ORM with a cookie cutter app then yes you probably need 520+. If you are ORM with a great story (the people I know) you don't need it.

Everyone at a Top 20, whether ORM or URM were top applicants. Most also happen to have high MCAT scores.
 
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gonnif said:
Every year I have advisees with 520+ who dont get in to any schools and those with below 512 who get into top schools
Click to expand...

Do you have thoughts on why? Other deficiencies in the application? Situation describes me perfectly, though I'm lacking volunteer and clinical experience so I have just assumed that is my issue. I don't want to be making the wrong assumption though and wasting time
 
gonnif said:
1) Poorly written PS that are
Arrogant
Entitled
No clear coherent expression of motivation or committment
No clear why medicine
No emotion or passion

2) poorly written, unbalanced, or weak W&A
Not enough volunteering
Imbalanced with research, shadow, and clinical
Little activity outside of campus
Little work with diverse populations

3) bad school target list:
top heavy
Too few
Not matching school mission
Click to expand...

Thank you so much for the break down. In the few interviews I got I did get very positive comments on my PS and I feel pretty good about number 1.

Forgive my ignorance here... W&A?

I feel pretty good about number 3 as well so it seems like clinical/volunteer may have done me in.
 
jmetaller said:
Thank you so much for the break down. In the few interviews I got I did get very positive comments on my PS and I feel pretty good about number 1.

Forgive my ignorance here... W&A?

I feel pretty good about number 3 as well so it seems like clinical/volunteer may have done me in.
Click to expand...
Work and activities.
 
manofsteel9 said:
n=4, but let me share my side of the story. Three of my really good friends and I all received 521+ on the MCAT (521, 523, 524, 525). We all had GPA's ranging from 3.6~3.8, graduated from a top 10 school, checked all the "pre-med" boxes, and had extensive research. Out of the four, three people will be matriculating in mid-tier programs, and one is going to a T20 school. Some of us received interviews from T20's and some T10's, but this is just how things worked out and we're all content and excited to be future doctors. My point being, 520+ will not guarantee you a T20 acceptance, and even though it seems like some med schools are stat-hoes, most schools are holistic. The applicant pool has been expanding and becoming more and more competitive, which is the result of the rise in median MCAT scores and why people who seem to be extremely competitive still don't get in. My last point is something I learned the hard way: never try to understand or figure out med school admissions, because it is impossible and a waste of time. Spend that time in improving your application and just ride the wave.
Click to expand...

pretty similar experience (520, 523, 524, 527) three of us going mid-tier this point and one going T25. Main differences from your case are we graduated from a state school, not a T10, and all cGPA/sGPAs above 3.95. FWIW we're all asians
 
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gonnif said:
1) Poorly written PS that are
Arrogant
Entitled
No clear coherent expression of motivation or committment
No clear why medicine
No emotion or passion

2) poorly written, unbalanced, or weak W&A
Not enough volunteering
Imbalanced with research, shadow, and clinical
Little activity outside of campus
Little work with diverse populations

3) bad school target list:
top heavy
Too few
Not matching school mission
Click to expand...
To this add:
late applications
IAs or other infractions (DUI, too many misdemeanors, etc)
Bad LORs

And to those who make it to the interview phase: poor interviews, bad behavior on interview day
 
DivisionByZero said:
From AAMC, there were ~4,000 applicants scoring 520 or better for both the 2017 and 2018 cycles. Seems like our estimates were pretty accurate.

See: https://www.aamc.org/download/493340/data/lsl2018validity.pdf
Click to expand...
4000 each cycle? That’s insane. Although I guess that represents 3 years worth of MCAT testers per application cycle.

To OPs question, I feel like 522/523 is a plateau. I’m having difficulty finding the exact percentile of 524+ scorers (AAMC just says 99+), but there must be only a few 100 a year?
 
dodolol21 said:
pretty similar experience (520, 523, 524, 527) three of us going mid-tier this point and one going T25. Main differences from your case are we graduated from a state school, not a T10, and all cGPA/sGPAs above 3.95
Click to expand...
Ditto, adding myself and three friends (528, 525, 525, 525). Three of us are going to mid-tier schools (USNWR ranks 72-27) and one is going to Northwestern. Two of us are from Ivy/t10 undergrads, and two are from flagship state schools. All of us are ORM as well, with 1 person having a 3.5 and the other 3 with a 3.9+.
 
StanleyYelnats said:
4000 each cycle? That’s insane. Although I guess that represents 3 years worth of MCAT testers per application cycle.

To OPs question, I feel like 522/523 is a plateau. I’m having difficulty finding the exact percentile of 524+ scorers (AAMC just says 99+), but there must be only a few 100 a year?
Click to expand...
4000 split between the last two cycles.
 
StanleyYelnats said:
4000 each cycle? That’s insane. Although I guess that represents 3 years worth of MCAT testers per application cycle.
Click to expand...

The data I linked aggregated from two cycles, so is more close to 2000 a year.
 
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I exported the AAMC histogram of MCAT scores as a 2400 DPI .tiff file and counted the height of each bar to a pretty high resolution (472 was 20 pixels high, 528 was 13 pixels high; each pixel corresponded to 3 people so these numbers below are +/- 3). I got the following data for the last 3 years combined:

unknown.png
 
Some madman on SDN in a previous thread counted the pixels on the AAMC distribution plot for the 2016 MCAT (shoutout @itmeowsback).

Converting this to percentiles:
523= 99.75
524= 99.82
525= 99.91
526= 99.94
527= 99.97
528= asymptotically close to 100

That gives you ~600 test takers a year getting 523s or better, assuming 100K take the MCAT. So there is no mathematical way for scores to go above 523 medians. Can’t believe I took the time out of my life to do this.
 
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I just don't know what anyone ever hopes to gain from these kinds of threads. It's not like you're going to aim for 521 vs 523 on your MCAT; you're going to do the best you can. If you get a 519 instead of a 522, I can't imagine it's really going to impact the list of schools you apply to that greatly, and if you're nervous enough to even be asking this question I'm sure you're not going to get any answer here that is going to reassure you.
 
GoSpursGo said:
I just don't know what anyone ever hopes to gain from these kinds of threads. It's not like you're going to aim for 521 vs 523 on your MCAT; you're going to do the best you can. If you get a 519 instead of a 522, I can't imagine it's really going to impact the list of schools you apply to that greatly, and if you're nervous enough to even be asking this question I'm sure you're not going to get any answer here that is going to reassure you.
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I think the fear comes from 519s at some schools being at the 25th percentile, and students start to wonder whether they even have a chance. Given the expense associated with applying, I can understand the neuroticism, even though it sucks. However, schools with 521-522 medians are looking at a lot more than your MCAT, which OP should keep in mind when considering where to apply.
 
StanleyYelnats said:
I think the fear comes from 519s at some schools being at the 25th percentile, and students start to wonder whether they even have a chance. Given the expense associated with applying, I can understand the neuroticism, even though it sucks. However, schools with 521-522 medians are looking at a lot more than your MCAT, which OP should keep in mind when considering where to apply.
Click to expand...
518 is the perfect score. High enough to be considered at top schools (if you have the GPA/ECs to go with it) and low enough not to get yield protected at state schools.
 
I haven't heard of state schools yield protecting students. A good amount of high scorers end up at their state schools, and talking to high scorers, state schools know this and give A's if you can explain your ties to the area.
 
samualjhatfield said:
I wonder what portion of high stats applicants would choose their own state school/a lower tiered school based on location/support network available? I may be different due to having a child, but if I were in a situation where I had to choose between any of the T5s and my state school I would choose the state school due to proximity of family.
Click to expand...
Honestly if I had the ability to choose between medical schools I would choose the cheapest one that is closest to family. Which likely is my state school.
 
samualjhatfield said:
518 is the perfect score. High enough to be considered at top schools (if you have the GPA/ECs to go with it) and low enough not to get yield protected at state schools.
Click to expand...
518 is NOT the perfect MCAT score lol. For 90% of people it is not enough to be considered seriously at top schools
 
dodolol21 said:
518 is NOT the perfect MCAT score lol. For 90% of people it is not enough to be considered seriously at top schools
Click to expand...
not true at all if you have a few reasonable interesting ECs/passions that you are accomplished in. i go to one of these "top schools" and the only thing that is more common that high mcats (which make up only half our class statistically) is everyone has things they are passionate about and have devoted time and energy to that are interesting.


imo other than excelling in the cookie-cutter stuff/strong academic backgrounds, the single most important thing in getting accepted to a "top school" is demonstrating that you're the type of student who would actually make the most out of the resources a top school has to offer. most of my classmates didnt even check most or all the "premed boxes" like volunteering/shadowing/research publications, but almost all of them dug deep into the ongoing projects/opportunities/funding available at my school as soon as it started.
 
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