538 on COMLEX Level 1 -- what am I competitive or within range for? Interested in IM, Neurology

[Doctor_Strange]

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Hi,

Waiting to take my Step in a few weeks. Currently, wanting to where my score puts me at. Based off the graph that the NBOME provided, I was slightly below average on performance.

I am interested in IM, Neurology, and also Anesthesiology. I know a good Step score trumps anything really on COMLEX, but I am possibly preparing for a subpar Step score, and may rely on my COMLEX with a focus on the former AOA programs. Can anyone provide any insight onto the specialties I listed? I am pretty lost in regards to this...

 

[Medic741]

what are your NBME scores?

 

[12jas]

Look at the NMRP match data. Pretty simple it stratifies it by score. No need to speculate on how competitive you are based off a single data point, (comlex) which means nothing anyways.

 

[Doctor_Strange]

what are your NBME scores?

NBME 15 (3/29, ~20% of UW) - 209
NBME 16 (4/12, ~30% of UW) - 200
NBME 22 (4/19, ~40% of UW) - 205
NBME 23 (5/3, ~55.5% of UW) - 211
UWSA 1 (5/12, ~67% of UW) - 239
NBME 21 (5/22, ~86 of UW) - 219
NBME 24 (5/28, UW 1st pass 67%) - 217 (36/50,36/50,39/50,34/50)
NBME 17 offline (7/14) - 215 (37/50, 38/50, 43/50, 46/50)

NBMEs 18, 20, Free 120, and UW 2 are left to do. My issue is I took a bunch of NBMEs early on in my prep, it will be about 12 weeks ultimately between taking UWSA 1 and UWSA 2. So that delay is worrying me in so far as while I have learned a lot more after initially delaying my exam, I may have lost some other knowledge. Right now I'm going through AMBOSS so I'll have an additional 2k questions done in addition to UW (+ incorrects) before I sit for my exam.

 

[Doctor_Strange]

Look at the NMRP match data. Pretty simple it stratifies it by score. No need to speculate on how competitive you are based off a single data point comlex that means nothing anyways.

Yeah, I have a bookmark for the interactive table of data. My issue is that my 538 from the 2018-2019 COMLEX data would be a ~57%ile, but this year I think the 538 is actually a bit lower by at least 7-9% points. So its tough for me know which side of 50%ile I am on for this year.

 

[DrStephenStrange]

I thought IM and Neurology were pretty easy to get even without USMLE anyways.

 

[Chibucks15]

Yeah, I have a bookmark for the interactive table of data. My issue is that my 538 from the 2018-2019 COMLEX data would be a ~57%ile, but this year I think the 538 is actually a bit lower by at least 7-9% points. So its tough for me know which side of 50%ile I am on for this year.

I was above that by a bit and right about at the median. For you it’s definitely like 45th percentile ish this year with a 538. I’m thinking IM and neuro too so I think we’ll be okay. Both aren’t extremely competitive. We got this!

 

[Doctor_Strange]

The average for your cohort isn’t released until next May... so it’s impossible for you to know the average or your percentile, currently. Further, the nbome doesn’t report the median...

Oh gotcha. Well that sucks. I hope that the former AOA programs go off quartiles perhaps ie 500-550, 550-600. I am lead to believe that is what most programs do, but I could be mistaken...

 

[Chibucks15]

The average for your cohort isn’t released until next May... so it’s impossible for you to know the average or your percentile, currently. Further, the nbome doesn’t report the median...

On the score report there were 3 bars with SD lines. Mine, the bar for first time test takers who passed, and the overall bar. I was just kinda ballparking based on the figure is all

 

[deleted645092]

NBME 15 (3/29, ~20% of UW) - 209
NBME 16 (4/12, ~30% of UW) - 200
NBME 22 (4/19, ~40% of UW) - 205
NBME 23 (5/3, ~55.5% of UW) - 211
UWSA 1 (5/12, ~67% of UW) - 239
NBME 21 (5/22, ~86 of UW) - 219
NBME 24 (5/28, UW 1st pass 67%) - 217 (36/50,36/50,39/50,34/50)
NBME 17 offline (7/14) - 215 (37/50, 38/50, 43/50, 46/50) (REVIEW PHARM)
NBMEs 18, 20, Free 120, and UW 2 are left to do. My issue is I took a bunch of NBMEs early on in my prep, it will be about 12 weeks ultimately between taking UWSA 1 and UWSA 2. So that delay is worrying me in so far as while I have learned a lot more after initially delaying my exam, I may have lost some other knowledge...

You have a 75% chance of scoring +/-10 points on the real thing based on your score from any single NBME exam. That chance increases with each NBME you take so with you taking so many I would say the safe money is somewhere between a 210-220. However this might be less accurate for you because so much time has passed. I would average the last 2 NBMEs plus the second UWorld with 10 points subtracted.

All of my NBMEs underpredicted but they were the old ones, not sure how accurate the new ones will be. My real Step 1 score was the same as my second UWorld.

 

[Doctor_Strange]

You have a 75% chance of scoring +/-10 points on the real thing based on your score from any single NBME exam. That chance increases with each NBME you take so with you taking so many I would say the safe money is somewhere between a 210-220. However this might be less accurate for you because so much time has passed. I would average the last 2 NBMEs plus the second UWorld with 10 points subtracted.

All of my NBMEs underpredicted but they were the old ones, not sure how accurate the new ones will be. My real Step 1 score was the same as my second UWorld.

Cool, I like that idea of averaging the last couple of practice exams I take. I know for a fact if I would have taken the new NBMEs within the last 20 days or so, those scores would be increased (even if slightly). That's how confident I am in how much I have learned in the last month, and by the fact I have done an additional 1000 questions through AMBOSS.

edit: btw, did you take any of the new NBMEs 20-24? Or did you take Step before the new changes/NBMEs?

 

[wonko]

For the the new NBME's were spot on - last one was a 244, real score 248. That was ~ 10 days before the test. UWSA2 was 254 a few days later.

 

[Ho0v-man]

My uwsa2 over predicted by 4 points. My nbmes all under predicted by ~20 points.

 

[Chibucks15]

My uwsa2 over predicted by 4 points. My nbmes all under predicted by ~20 points.

+1 here too

 

[Doctor_Strange]

My uwsa2 over predicted by 4 points. My nbmes all under predicted by ~20 points.

Well, I hope that holds true for me. Time will tell.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

For me the new NBMEs were almost spot on. I was smack dab in the middle of my UWSA average and my new NBME average.

 

[Doctor_Strange]

For me the new NBMEs were almost spot on. I was smack dab in the middle of my UWSA average and my new NBME average.

Well, I hope that doesn't hold true for me lol

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

Personally I think you’ll land somewhere in the 220s. That’s my bet.

 

[libertyyne]

218+-10

 

[Giovanotto]

230 +/- 5

 

[Doctor_Strange]

For those who care to know: NBME 18 - 220 last week and UWSA2 - 239 yesterday. Exam this Friday.

Some have said UWSA2 overpredicts and if so that's okay I guess; I think I need a 225 to be good for low-tier IM university programs/community-affliated ones anyways.

 

[Giovanotto]

It seems like > 220 is sort of the magic number(s). This applies for VSAS during 3rd year as well. Not all, but some sites won't accept you without a > 220. Heck, some sites even want > 225/230. Best of luck!

 

[Doctor_Strange]

Well, thought I'd update this thread. I got my score earlier this morning, and received a 243. So, definitely a pleasant surprise. Feels good coming from a 497 MCAT (41st%ile).

 

[Postictal Raiden]

Congrats

You’re solid for all 3 specialties

Now commit to one and work towards it (auditions, research, attending conferences) so you could match the best possible program.

 

[Giovanotto]

Can I get a prize for being the closest one to guess?

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

Nice job man, that opens a lot of doors

 

[Deecee2DO]

Well, thought I'd update this thread. I got my score earlier this morning, and received a 243. So, definitely a pleasant surprise. Feels good coming from a 497 MCAT (41st%ile).

Perusing the thread here but wanted to say congrats man awesome score!