Acceptance rate with different numbers of interviews

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Birdness

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I was wondering if there is a general consensus of acceptance rates based on number of interviews, all else being equal ( you don't come of as a serial killer during the interview, for example). What is the success after 1, 2, 3 interviews, etc.
 
Obviously this doesn't exist.

It would be a good project for an SDNer to do though if people would contribute data (like the MCAT vs. practice test spreadsheet).
 
If we knew the probability of admission after interview from each school (we don't) and if the likelihood of admission were random after interview (it isn't ) it would be easy to calculate the probability of not getting an interview anywhere (call it x) and the probabilty of getting at least one offer would be 1-x but we don't have those probabilities and decisions aren't random. Does anyone have any personal experience to share on number of interviews with no offer through the end of the cycle?
 
Probability of acceptance = 1-prob rejection

= 1 - (product of rejection rate for each school you interview at)

You get three interviews with 2/3 post interview rejection

= 1 - (.66 x .66 x .66) = 72% chance of acceptance

Obviously this number means **** but in a hypothetical situation all being equal...
 
If everyone on SDN posted the number of interviews they received and the number of acceptances they received, it may be possible to calculate odds of acceptance based on # of interviews.
 
Birdness said:
I was wondering if there is a general consensus of acceptance rates based on number of interviews, all else being equal ( you don't come of as a serial killer during the interview, for example). What is the success after 1, 2, 3 interviews, etc.
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There used to be a saying, "Interviews three, a doctor you'll be." But, in recent years, that saying has not held true.

Don't know if that means that a new saying needs to be made for four interviews? or more?
 
LizzyM said:
If we knew the probability of admission after interview from each school (we don't) and if the likelihood of admission were random after interview (it isn't ) it would be easy to calculate the probability of not getting an interview anywhere (call it x) and the probabilty of getting at least one offer would be 1-x but we don't have those probabilities and decisions aren't random. Does anyone have any personal experience to share on number of interviews with no offer through the end of the cycle?
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piii said:
Probability of acceptance = 1-prob rejection

= 1 - (product of rejection rate for each school you interview at)

You get three interviews with 2/3 post interview rejection

= 1 - (.66 x .66 x .66) = 72% chance of acceptance

Obviously this number means **** but in a hypothetical situation all being equal...
Click to expand...

Meh. I can do some advanced discrete probabilistic analysis if you really want something.
 
ChrisMack390 said:
If everyone on SDN posted the number of interviews they received and the number of acceptances they received, it may be possible to calculate odds of acceptance based on # of interviews.
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That may help, but there are just so many variables. If the person's interviews were late-ish, then they may have been interviewed for the WL.

I only applied to 6 med schools. Interviewed at 3, and accepted to 3. BUT....I don't think that my situation reveals that much. I'm from a state that pretty much interviews all instate applicants with strong stats. Getting accepted with strong stats, good LORs, and good medically-related ECs isn't that hard. It's the main reason that I only applied to 6. Our med school advisor assured me that I would get accepted to our two state med schools, and I was. The other 4 apps were to private OOS, and one did accept me.
 
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The problem with this kind of thinking is it assumes all applicants who are good enough to get a II are on a leveled playing field and their chance is tied to just how well the interview goes. That's certainly not how it goes.

You could perhaps use that to partly explain why you'll see a number of borderline applicants(say your 3.5/31 variety) who don't get into MD schools despite multiple interviews and despite the fact in theory many MD schools give an offer to at least half the people they interview.
 
Just my opinion, but if an applicant with allo med-school worthy stats/LORs/ECs AND a good app list applies EARLY (before August), and if he/she gets 3 interviews before Dec, then he/she will get at least one acceptance.

I would like to test the above scenario.
 
SOMBound13 said:
There used to be a saying, "Interviews three, a doctor you'll be." But, in recent years, that saying has not held true.

Don't know if that means that a new saying needs to be made for four interviews? or more?
Click to expand...

Some people don't get in with 10. Some people get in with 1. Can't tell what will happen
 
A rough guideline that was passed around SDN which I think is a reasonable estimate - with the huge caveat that these are very rough guidelines and that any one person's individual cycle is impossible to predict - is to expect an interview for every 3 schools you apply to and an acceptance for every 3 schools you interview at. That ratio will be lower for more competitive applicants and higher for less competitive applicants; lower if your list is filled with less competitive schools and higher for more competitive schools. If you're looking for a hard "number," though, I think it's a good place to start. Again, with the caveat that using this to predict your individual cycle is a fool's errand.
 
Psai said:
Some people don't get in with 10. Some people get in with 1. Can't tell what will happen
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If someone gets 10 interviews and NO acceptances, then it's likely an interview issue and the person rubs everyone the wrong way. Typically, SOMs accept 30-50% of their interviewees. The likelihood that this is someone who presents himself well in 10 interviews, but somehow always ends up on the "cutting room floor," is not likely.

Anyway, the question really wasn't in regards to any particular individual, it was more of looking for a trend.

That said, I would still say that someone who applied early with a good list, has strong stats, interviews well, and has at least 3 interviews before Dec, will likely have at least one accepance.
 
SOMBound13 said:
Just my opinion, but if an applicant with allo med-school worthy stats/LORs/ECs AND a good app list applies EARLY (before August), and if he/she gets 3 interviews before Dec, then he/she will get at least one acceptance.

I would like to test the above scenario.
Click to expand...
I would like to prove your theory correct 😉
 
NickNaylor said:
A rough guideline that was passed around SDN which I think is a reasonable estimate - with the huge caveat that these are very rough guidelines and that any one person's individual cycle is impossible to predict - is to expect an interview for every 3 schools you apply to and an acceptance for every 3 schools you interview at. That ratio will be lower for more competitive applicants and higher for less competitive applicants; lower if your list is filled with less competitive schools and higher for more competitive schools. If you're looking for a hard "number," though, I think it's a good place to start. Again, with the caveat that using this to predict your individual cycle is a fool's errand.
Click to expand...

This has held true for me. 33 apps --> 9 IIs --> 4 acceptances
 
musicalfeet said:
Me too... 6 MD II so far an 0 acceptances so far. (I am not counting CNU as an MD). All decisions that have come back so far = WL.
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How many of the 6 II schools have already indicated that you're on the WL?

Did you meet all the other criterial I listed?

Are you a reapplicant?
 
SOMBound13 said:
How many of the 6 II schools have already indicated that you're on the WL?

Did you meet all the other criterial I listed?

Are you a reapplicant?
Click to expand...

LizzyM 69 for numbers, complete at most schools by late-July, applied to about 33 schools with 10 reaches and the rest within my numbers/state preferences. I don't think I'm a terrible interviewer (have 1 DO acceptance but I'm talking MD only right now), but I'm probably not amazing either. 3 of the schools have responded with a WL, and I will be waiting on one decision on 12/15, another in January, and I have yet to complete my final MD II that I've received so far (on 12/8).
 
↑
What were your stats and what were the schools the interviews were at. That will reveal a fair amount.
Numbers:
cGPA: 3.64 (low uGPA, kicked some serious butt in career-changer postbac with a 3.94)
sGPA: 3.92
MCAT: 33
ECs in general were my strength rather than my numbers, with about 300 clinical volunteering hours (100 of free-clinic) at the time of application, former concert-violinist, 200 hrs clinical research

Waitlisted at: Gtown, UCI and Miami Miller
Waiting on decisions at Loyola, BU and CNU
My 1 acceptance was Touro CA.

Also worrying is that while it seems lots of people get more invites in October, it has been totally silent for me! So I suspect I may be done with invites for this cycle (which then this does not bode well for me at all...)
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Are you a Calif resident?

I had to look up CNU...I had never heard of it before. When did you interview there? Has anyone been accepted?

Did you apply to SLU? I think SLU is easier to get into than Loyola or G'town. Are you Catholic? If so, did you indicate that with Loyola and G'town?

I don't think you should read much into your WL's for G'town and Miami. I've heard that those schools operate somewhat like one of my accepted schools...immediately accepting their "gotta haves," and leaving the rest hanging. I interviewed in early Oct for my top choice, crickets for awhile (they don't do a WL until spring), and then finally accepted in February. It was very nerve-racking since it was my favorite and a former girl friend with similar stats was accepted within a month of interviewing. Later I realized that the school was a little too male-heavy at the time and would quickly accept its better female applicants, while the rest of us were left in limbo while the powers-that-be determined our fate. Since it sounds like G'town and Miami put all on the WL except for their stars, being placed on their WL doesn't sound as ominous as it does when other schools do this in the spring.
 
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SOMBound13 said:
Are you a Calif resident?

I had to look up CNU...I had never heard of it before. When did you interview there? Has anyone been accepted?

Did you apply to SLU? I think SLU is easier to get into than Loyola or G'town. Are you Catholic? If so, did you indicate that with Loyola and G'town?

I don't think you should read much into your WL's for G'town and Miami. I've heard that those schools operate somewhat like one of my accepted schools...immediately accepting their "gotta haves," and leaving the rest hanging. I interviewed in early Oct for my top choice, crickets for awhile (they don't do a WL until spring), and then finally accepted in February. It was very nerve-racking since it was my favorite and a former girl friend with similar stats was accepted within a month of interviewing. Later I realized that the school was a little too male-heavy at the time and would quickly accept its better female applicants, while the rest of us were left in limbo while the powers-that-be determined our fate. Since it sounds like G'town and Miami put all of the WL except for their stars, being placed on their WL doesn't sound as ominous as it does when other schools do this in the spring.
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Yea Miami is notorious for waiting til wait list season and accepting the people who've yet to get anther acceptance
 
Rainbow Zebra said:
This held true for my brother, and will probably hold true for me too. I use it as a benchmark, but I'm not sure it would hold true for the poor California residents.
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Calif applicants have it the worst.

What percent of interviewed applicants do the UC SOMs accept? Stanford? USC?
 
SOMBound13 said:
Calif applicants have it the worst.

What percent of interviewed applicants do the UC SOMs accept? Stanford? USC?
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I can't speak for all of the schools, but I can say that at my SF and SD interviews they said ~50% and ~1/3, respectively. I assume SF includes acceptances off of their waitlist, while SD said that there isn't much movement off of their waitlist.
 
themoonman2 said:
I can't speak for all of the schools, but I can say that at my SF and SD interviews they said ~50% and ~1/3, respectively. I assume SF includes acceptances off of their waitlist, while SD said that there isn't much movement off of their waitlist.
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+1. SD is about 1/3, and the waitlist is effectively a rejection.
 
I was there a few weeks ago too. Maybe I'm getting the numbers confused with another school.
 
themoonman2 said:
I can't speak for all of the schools, but I can say that at my SF and SD interviews they said ~50% and ~1/3, respectively. I assume SF includes acceptances off of their waitlist, while SD said that there isn't much movement off of their waitlist.
Click to expand...

NotWayneBrady said:
+1. SD is about 1/3, and the waitlist is effectively a rejection.
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NotWayneBrady said:
+1. SD is about 1/3, and the waitlist is effectively a rejection.
Click to expand...


It makes sense that if SD hardly ever goes to their WL, then their rate would be roughly 33%. And, if SF does go to its WL then its rate would be ~50%.

Since SD is a lower ranked school, and seems to have a better yield, is that because SF is accepting students that likely have other elite acceptances?

(Imagine that problem...."uh, I've been accepted to: UCSF, Harvard, Stanford and Johns Hopkins...which should I choose?" ) lol...that would qualify as the ultimate First World Problem.
 
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stanford's around 1/3

(most of the top 20s are 1/3 from what I remember)
 
SOMBound13 said:
It makes sense that if SD hardly ever goes to their WL, then their rate would be roughly 33%. And, if SF does go to its WL then its rate would be ~50%.

Since SD is a lower ranked school, and seems to have a better yield, is that because SF is accepting students that likely have other elite acceptances?

(Imagine that problem...."uh, I've been accepted to: UCSF, Harvard, Stanford and Johns Hopkins...which should I chooose?" )
Click to expand...

Talk about good problems lol, but that makes sense to me. I think SD also interviews more people for a class size that is about the same as SF's. In the end, they may be accepting about the same amount of people, but SD has more outright acceptances with the expectation that the number of those who choose not to attend will end up whittling the class size down to where they want it.
 
The Knife & Gun Club said:
Yea Miami is notorious for waiting til wait list season and accepting the people who've yet to get anther acceptance
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Miami definitely has a lot of wait list movement, but I disagree on accepting people "who've yet to get another acceptance". If I remember correctly at orientation they mentioned that over 85% of our class had multiple acceptances.
 
BioEngMD said:
Miami definitely has a lot of wait list movement, but I disagree on accepting people "who've yet to get another acceptance". If I remember correctly at orientation they mentioned that over 85% of our class had multiple acceptances.
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Sorry, you're probably right (seeing as you go there and I don't)! I was just echoing what people have told me in the past.
 
I applied to 26 schools. Was complete by end of July. Had 9 interviews. 1 post interview hold. 5 acceptances. Waiting to here from 3 others.
 
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