There are two things that appear to be coming with regards to CMS reform that are germane to Rad Onc:
1. Professional and technical fees will continue to drop (or, at best, stay stable) over the coming years; however pro fees will tend to drop at a steeper rate and will ultimately become a smaller percentage of the total pot of reimbursement
2a. Change from fee-for-service to fee-for-disease; So let's say a pt came in with prostate cancer. Instead of better reimbursement for maximum fractionation (1.8 Gy x 44), you are simply given a lump sum to do how you please. Presumably this will lead to more hypofractionation (e.g. Cleveland Clinic protocol for prostate cancer) due to removal of incentivization for fractions.
2b. As a corollary to above; Rad Onc and Med Onc will require financial integration as many diseases require concurrent chemoXRT for cure
Therefore, IMO, the following types of practice will be best prepared to weather the coming storm:
a. Physicians who collect both pro and technical fees (e.g. they own the machines) will be far better off. Technical fees, as alluded above, will remain relatively unscathed from CMS and will continue to be the future money-maker. Pro-only groups will have to see more and more patients to compensate for an ever-shrinking pool of revenue.
b. Combined Med Onc and Rad Onc practices that can easily implement the fee-for-disease reimbursement model; this model is not often found in free-standing cancer centers but is the norm in academic and community hospitals
c. Physician-employees are the future of medicine, unfortunately. These folks will still maintain a decent pay (> $300K) but will find it difficult to increase their salary with seniority outside of clinical volume bonuses. The loss of financial autonomy is also a bummer.