Adcoms: Structure of the typical waitlist?

[bearintraining]

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Hi all,

I was wondering if anyone could shed some light on what the typical waitlist looks like for an allopathic school? I've seen numbers from 2.5-3.5x admissions offers to get a class filled -- how much of that comes from a waitlist and how much from initial offers? Do schools tend to have fairly small/short waitlists? What is the typical # accepted off a waitlist?

Thanks in advance!

 

[LizzyM]

Some schools are restricted in how many offers they can make and are very conservative to avoid over enrollment. Those schools will go with a deep waitlist and may waitlist very strong candidates (figuring that they will go elsewhere anyway) and focus their initial offers at the students who are strong AND likely to matriculate. The waitlist may be used to replace a student each time an offer is rejected. Of course, some state schools are very popular with instate students due to location and cost and so some of these schools may have a very high yield (proportion of offers made that are accepted) and little likelihood of going to the waitlist.

Some schools will try to snag as many top candidates as possible, with the understanding that they will be successful only 25-40% of the time, by making 2-4 times as many offers as they have seats. They may make offers straight away, usually beginning in mid October and continuing throughout the interview season. These schools may put almost everyone else on the waitlist so as to keep their bench deep or they may cut applicants who aren't likely to make it off the waitlist to let them know where they stand realistically rather than pedaling false hope.


I can only speak to my school with regard to waitlist. The number of students who have come off the waitlist have ranged from <1% to >33% from one year to the next. There really is no predicting how things will play out.

 

[Goro]

From the perspective of my COM, we waitlist about 25% of our interviewees. Those with might stats come off first.

We typically pull single digits each month after the MD schools have to post who's holding accepts where, which makes people commit, and thus freeing up our list.

Keep in mind that Deans also have particular criteria for which they pull people. Some might want high GPA folks, other want high MCAT. State schools will give preference to their own residents, or those of nearby states.

As the wise LizzyM points out, your mileage will vary from school to school.

 

[Doug Underhill]

It depends heavily on the school, but people do get accepted off them, so it's not synonymous with "rejection".

 

[Ready 4 Med]

Years back, my adcom had 3 25-applicant interview days in November. 3 in December, and 3 in January... so 225 interviews total for about 150 slots at the time. The November session were people with >32 on the MCAT (add 2 points for out-of-state, subtract 2 points for URM). December was about 29-32. January was sub-29.

Of course, there has been MCAT inflation since then, so you have to put those numbers in context.

The year I was accepted (again, 10 years ago), 23 of the initial 25 were accepted; and more than 20 were accepted the other 2 November days.

To put it another way, nearly everybody who showed up to interview in January was basically lobbying for a position on the wait list. With that said, because of the shuffling around, I think about a quarter of my class wound up coming in off of the wait list. Almost all of them were in-state people.

I will tell you that the bigger private schools have separate wait lists for separate demographics such that their class exactly matches the US demographic, and places like Hopkins prides itself on multi-regional representation meaning that if you are a Native American from South Dakota, your chances are much better than if you are a white male from New York.

Does anyone out there still have Early Decision? That becomes voodoo. I was interviewed for Early Decision in my home state and was waitlisted in October.

 

[LizzyM]

Years back, my adcom had 3 25-applicant interview days in November. 3 in December, and 3 in January... so 225 interviews total for about 150 slots at the time. The November session were people with >32 on the MCAT (add 2 points for out-of-state, subtract 2 points for URM). December was about 29-32. January was sub-29.

Of course, there has been MCAT inflation since then, so you have to put those numbers in context.

The year I was accepted (again, 10 years ago), 23 of the initial 25 were accepted; and more than 20 were accepted the other 2 November days.

To put it another way, nearly everybody who showed up to interview in January was basically lobbying for a position on the wait list. With that said, because of the shuffling around, I think about a quarter of my class wound up coming in off of the wait list. Almost all of them were in-state people.

I will tell you that the bigger private schools have separate wait lists for separate demographics such that their class exactly matches the US demographic, and places like Hopkins prides itself on multi-regional representation meaning that if you are a Native American from South Dakota, your chances are much better than if you are a white male from New York.

Does anyone out there still have Early Decision? That becomes voodoo. I was interviewed for Early Decision in my home state and was waitlisted in October.

A new twist is that states in financial crisis are finding OOS applicants far more attractive than in years past. They may be looking at the waitlist and even the pre-interview hold applicants with renewed interest as budget season rolls around.

 

[CaliforniaDreamer]

A new twist is that states in financial crisis are finding OOS applicants far more attractive than in years past. They may be looking at the waitlist and even the pre-interview hold applicants with renewed interest as budget season rolls around.

But are the people making admissions decisions influenced by these factors? I would have thought it would be independent offices.

 

[LizzyM]

But are the people making admissions decisions influenced by these factors? I would have thought it would be independent offices.

If the people "upstairs" say, "bring in more OOS students" you do it.

 

[gyngyn]

But are the people making admissions decisions influenced by these factors? I would have thought it would be independent offices.

With a large excess of excellent candidates, changes in priorities do not result in a loss of quality.

 

[Goro]

The Dean at our school pulls people off the waitlist without regard for the wishes of the Adcom, alas.

But are the people making admissions decisions influenced by these factors? I would have thought it would be independent offices.

 

[Ready 4 Med]

A new twist is that states in financial crisis are finding OOS applicants far more attractive than in years past. They may be looking at the waitlist and even the pre-interview hold applicants with renewed interest as budget season rolls around.

LizzyM... I think I remember you when I used to post many years ago. I think at one time there was something called a LizzyM score that people used to gauge their likelihood of being accepted...

The University of Oregon used to do this intentionally (not sure if they still do). My old MSAR at one time had Oregon with only half in-staters. Here is the trick with Oregon, though, they don't need doctors nearly as badly as less attractive states to live in.

It's too bad that this is happening. The state school I went to mandated something like 85% had to be in-state simply to meet physician shortage concerns, but the total wound up being over 93%. Then they increased the class size which in turn lead to a higher percentage of their students failing step I.

There are a lot of Californians who wind up at Creighton, MCW, SLU, Drexel, etc. I wonder if state schools should target some of the stronger turned-away Californians instead of keeping the door open for in-staters who might be at a greater risk for not passing step I. It seems like it could kill 2 birds with one stone.

 

[Goro]

The NYC area SUNYs seem to like CA students.

LizzyM... I think I remember you when I used to post many years ago. I think at one time there was something called a LizzyM score that people used to gauge their likelihood of being accepted...

The University of Oregon used to do this intentionally (not sure if they still do). My old MSAR at one time had Oregon with only half in-staters. Here is the trick with Oregon, though, they don't need doctors nearly as badly as less attractive states to live in.

It's too bad that this is happening. The state school I went to mandated something like 85% had to be in-state simply to meet physician shortage concerns, but the total wound up being over 93%. Then they increased the class size which in turn lead to a higher percentage of their students failing step I.

There are a lot of Californians who wind up at Creighton, MCW, SLU, Drexel, etc. I wonder if state schools should target some of the stronger turned-away Californians instead of keeping the door open for in-staters who might be at a greater risk for not passing step I. It seems like it could kill 2 birds with one stone.

 

[gyngyn]

There are a lot of Californians who wind up at Creighton, MCW, SLU, Drexel, etc. I wonder if state schools should target some of the stronger turned-away Californians instead of keeping the door open for in-staters who might be at a greater risk for not passing step I. It seems like it could kill 2 birds with one stone.

Most successful CA premeds go OOS.
Of 5920 applicants, only 870 get to stay in CA. Remember, UCLA alone produced 919 applicants last year. These are largely very strong candidates.
1436 have to leave CA for both public and private schools. Very few of them want to stay, though.
It makes monetary sense for OOS public medical schools if they crank up the tuition to sky high levels (e.g. U of IL). The state will still lose their investment when the students return home.

 

[Oh_Gee]

Most successful CA premeds go OOS.
Of 5920 applicants, only 870 get to stay in CA. Remember, UCLA alone produced 919 applicants last year. These are largely very strong candidates.
1436 have to leave CA for both public and private schools. Very few of them want to stay, though.
It makes monetary sense for OOS public medical schools if they crank up the tuition to sky high levels (e.g. U of IL). The state will still lose their investment when the students return home.

where do you get those numbers

 

[LizzyM]

where do you get those numbers

AMCAS Table 5 https://www.aamc.org/download/321466/data/factstable5.pdf

 

[Goro]

SUNY Upstate, of the four, seems to be the least OOS friendly, and I suspect that people from the New England state have an edge.

I believe the way the SUNY charter and/or law governing them relives them of formal instate quota (admission are considered under academic independence). It allows the 4 med schools to focus on their missions rather than state numbers, though they lean to instate. Stony Brook has the most intense research bent and like to grab top candidates early. They also used to be very fond of their own UGs. Downstate has a real inner city/underserved culture and focus on that. I am not as familiar with SUNY upstate though they were early in being nontrad friendly. I have no info on Buffalo except its cold.