Adcoms: what does the typical spread of applications look like?

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There are stats thrown around like X% of med school applicants get into medical school every cycle, Y% of applicants have Z number of publications, etc etc etc. If we've been here long and absorbed some of the wisdom from this forum we are also able to see what a great application should look like. But what do applications actually look like? What do the bottom half, or even bottom quartile, look like? Do people apply that have absolutely no business applying to medical school? Or do those applications also reflect great applicants that just didn't get an admission? Are there applications that get chucked in the trash straight away? I'm just so curious!
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There are stats thrown around like X% of med school applicants get into medical school every cycle, Y% of applicants have Z number of publications, etc etc etc. If we've been here long and absorbed some of the wisdom from this forum we are also able to see what a great application should look like. But what do applications actually look like?
This is an excellent question. In a nutshell, most apps look alike.

What do the bottom half, or even bottom quartile, look like?
The writing gets worse, or sloppier, or the attitude gets worse (essays don't answer the prompt, miss the point or are loaded with ego and/or a demand for instant gratification. Like: "I'm God's gift to Medicine and I grant you the privilege of accepting me".

Do people apply that have absolutely no business applying to medical school?

Absolutely! I'd guess 50% of apps fall into this category, based at least from what I've heard from my wily old Admissions dean and other Adcom members. @Pathdocmd , @gyngyn , @LizzyM @Med Ed can probably give some examples. Gyngyn has mentioned someone who had a single digit MCAT score (from the old exam). No, not a single digit in each category...for the entire exam!

Interestingly, we see exactly the same thing with Faculty job searches. Advertise for, say, an Anatomy faculty member, and you get microbiologists, biochemists, geneticost, botanists etc applying. All of them must think "I could learn how to teach that".

In the same manner, I'll wager that this thinking (and worse) is going on with med school applicants. SDNers have voiced things like "you miss all the shots you never take" or "nothing ventured, nothing gained" or "you never know", as if Harvard gets 80 apps for 100 seats, and they're desperate to seat some warm body. I am NOT making this up!

Or do those applications also reflect great applicants that just didn't get an admission?
It's a seller's market. There are indeed lots of great candidates. But when you have, as my school gets, 6000 apps, and only 100 seats, somebody has to get culled. LizzyM uses a staircase analogy.

Are there applications that get chucked in the trash straight away? I'm just so curious!
There are people who simply run down the list of minimum stats taken from USNWR and apply blindly to those schools. They can't be bothered to go to the school's Admission website and read exactly what the school is looking for. Hence you get people who live in New York who apply to N UM or MCG, not knowing that these schools do not accept OOSers. Then there are the clueless non-African Americans who apply to the HBCs. Despite having 1000s of hours of research experience!
One final auto-reject...people who write in the essays "and that's why I'd like to attend XSOM" Except the app is to YSOM.
 
To add to Goro’s answer, last year the MSAR included applicant data in addition to matriculant data (unsure if they kept it this year because my sub expired). You could see from that pretty clearly that about 50% or more of apps had essentially no business applying to many schools. The phenomenon appeared to get worse for top schools where probably only 10% of applicants had a real shot.

From the impression I’ve gotten from some of my friends attending the top 10, the top 5% of applicants are basically competing with each other for all the same schools and the interview trail is filled with familiar faces.

Overall predicting who will get into what school is extremely difficult but predicting who is and is not likely to be accepted is fairly straightforward because of what Goro mentioned. If you’ve a good app, your chances are much better than the matriculation rate.

Just from observation and following cycles in the past I see things like this: 50% of apps that have no business applying, 10% of borderline apps for which the process is very nearly random given a reasonable school list, 20% of apps that have are going to be accepted as long as they don’t shoot themselves in the foot by submitting in September or applying to just 5 schools, 15% of apps that are going to get in even if they are kind of late or have a narrow list, and finally the top 5% who are playing amongst themselves and will have loads of options; candidates so good that they would’ve been accepted if they submitted Lorem iPsum as their personal statement and mailed in an update letter stapled onto a dead raccoon. SDN can be stressful because it attracts a lot of that final 5%.
 
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Goro said:
There are stats thrown around like X% of med school applicants get into medical school every cycle, Y% of applicants have Z number of publications, etc etc etc. If we've been here long and absorbed some of the wisdom from this forum we are also able to see what a great application should look like. But what do applications actually look like?
This is an excellent question. In a nutshell, most apps look alike.

What do the bottom half, or even bottom quartile, look like?
The writing gets worse, or sloppier, or the attitude gets worse (essays don't answer the prompt, miss the point or are loaded with ego and/or a demand for instant gratification. Like: "I'm God's gift to Medicine and I grant you the privilege of accepting me".

Do people apply that have absolutely no business applying to medical school?

Absolutely! I'd guess 50% of apps fall into this category, based at least from what I've heard from my wily old Admissions dean and other Adcom members. @Pathdocmd , @gyngyn , @LizzyM @Med Ed can probably give some examples. Gyngyn has mentioned someone who had a single digit MCAT score (from the old exam). No, not a single digit in each category...for the entire exam!

Interestingly, we see exactly the same thing with Faculty job searches. Advertise for, say, an Anatomy faculty member, and you get microbiologists, biochemists, geneticost, botanists etc applying. All of them must think "I could learn how to teach that".

In the same manner, I'll wager that this thinking (and worse) is going on with med school applicants. SDNers have voiced things like "you miss all the shots you never take" or "nothing ventured, nothing gained" or "you never know", as if Harvard gets 80 apps for 100 seats, and they're desperate to seat some warm body. I am NOT making this up!

Or do those applications also reflect great applicants that just didn't get an admission?
It's a seller's market. There are indeed lots of great candidates. But when you have, as my school gets, 6000 apps, and only 100 seats, somebody has to get culled. LizzyM uses a staircase analogy.

Are there applications that get chucked in the trash straight away? I'm just so curious!
There are people who simply run down the list of minimum stats taken from USNWR and apply blindly to those schools. They can't be bothered to go to the school's Admission website and read exactly what the school is looking for. Hence you get people who live in New York who apply to N UM or MCG, not knowing that these schools do not accept OOSers. Then there are the clueless non-African Americans who apply to the HBCs. Despite having 1000s of hours of research experience!
One final auto-reject...people who write in the essays "and that's why I'd like to attend XSOM" Except the app is to YSOM.
Click to expand...
So historically black colleges can throw out non blacks applications for being non black and its not prejudicial? I can only imagine if a college threw out black applications. #DoubleStandards
 
Lucca said:
To add to Goro’s answer, last year the MSAR included applicant data in addition to matriculant data (unsure if they kept it this year because my sub expired). You could see from that pretty clearly that about 50% or more of apps had essentially no business applying to many schools. The phenomenon appeared to get worse for top schools where probably only 10% of applicants had a real shot.

From the impression I’ve gotten from some of my friends attending the top 10, the top 5% of applicants are basically competing with each other for all the same schools and the interview trail is filled with familiar faces.

Overall predicting who will get into what school is extremely difficult but predicting who is and is not likely to be accepted is fairly straightforward because of what Goro mentioned. If you’ve a good app, your chances are much better than the matriculation rate.

Just from observation and following cycles in the past I see things like this: 50% of apps that have no business applying, 10% of borderline apps for which the process is very nearly random given a reasonable school list, 20% of apps that have are going to be accepted as long as they don’t shoot themselves in the foot by submitting in September or applying to just 5 schools, 15% of apps that are going to get in even if they are kind of late or have a narrow list, and finally the top 5% who are playing amongst themselves and will have loads of options; candidates so good that they would’ve been accepted if they submitted Lorem iPsum as their personal statement and mailed in an update letter stapled onto a dead raccoon. SDN can be stressful because it attracts a lot of that final 5%.
Click to expand...
It is interesting, because SDN "You need a near perfect GPA/positive trend, and a fantastic MCAT score, and loads of volunteer hours, pray to the virgin mary, and sacrifice your first born"
And all of the med students I talk to in my hospital Gpa 3.5-3.7 average mcat score and no volunteering whatsoever. Plus applied to maybe our 3 state schools, or just two LSU schools.

Don't get me wrong, I'm going to do every single thing possible to get in. I have 6 doctors lined up for shadowing, have 2 years left and am really racking up volunteer hours, and am trying to have an outstanding GPA and MCAT, but sometimes I wonder if we worry ourselves silly. I mean my cousins wife got in and she had a 3.7 GPA, 511 MCAT, and did ONE mission trip out of the blue for her application and only applied to LSU NO and got in right out of college.
 
RNtoMD87 said:
It is interesting, because SDN "You need a near perfect GPA/positive trend, and a fantastic MCAT score, and loads of volunteer hours, pray to the virgin mary, and sacrifice your first born"
And all of the med students I talk to in my hospital Gpa 3.5-3.7 average mcat score and no volunteering whatsoever. Plus applied to maybe our 3 state schools, or just two LSU schools.

Don't get me wrong, I'm going to do every single thing possible to get in. I have 6 doctors lined up for shadowing, have 2 years left and am really racking up volunteer hours, and am trying to have an outstanding GPA and MCAT, but sometimes I wonder if we worry ourselves silly. I mean my cousins wife got in and she had a 3.7 GPA, 511 MCAT, and did ONE mission trip out of the blue for her application and only applied to LSU NO and got in right out of college.
Click to expand...

states can be radically different. Cali + PNW schools are extremely competitive regardless of research ranking. That said, it is entirely reasonable for a good enough Washington state applicant to apply to UW and maybe four other schools and still leave the cycle acceptance in hand. In Texas, the story is similar; the vast majority of pre-meds I know here don't plan to apply OOS at all, or didn't. If I was applying MD-only, I'd probably only apply to the TX schools, and use AMCAS for Baylor and maybe 2-3 dream schools. I know many Texans who had practically zero clinical experience beyond the requisite shadowing and did just fine; however, all the national evidence points to clinical experience being very important for the majority of MD apps regardless of whats happening in TX. I suspect Louisiana is something of an outlier in terms of what is a reasonable application because of in-state bias and lack of OOS interest.
 
RNtoMD87 said:
So historically black colleges can throw out non blacks applications for being non black and its not prejudicial? I can only imagine if a college threw out black applications. #DoubleStandards
Click to expand...

The HBC have a specific mission. Applicants that don't match that mission (and it is not just about skin tone or ethnic heritage or race) are not good candidates for admission. Know the school's mission and be as objective as possible in determining whether you are a good fit based on your interests and experience.
 
SDN may attract a lot of the top 5% of applicants.... but apparently it also attracts people who make posts like this
RNtoMD87 said:
So historically black colleges can throw out non blacks applications for being non black and its not prejudicial? I can only imagine if a college threw out black applications. #DoubleStandards
Click to expand...

This level of ignorance is... ridiculous
 
Lucca said:
From the impression I’ve gotten from some of my friends attending the top 10, the top 5% of applicants are basically competing with each other for all the same schools and the interview trail is filled with familiar faces.
Click to expand...

This is a fact. It's so weird how much of my incoming class I met on interviews.
 
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Kpw101 said:
:whoa:
Click to expand...
 
Thank you for your replies! I'm so glad I can have a clearer picture of what the applicant pool contains.

And sorry that it spiraled downhill! Didn't mean to instigate a ruckus.
 
RNtoMD87 said:
It is interesting, because SDN "You need a near perfect GPA/positive trend, and a fantastic MCAT score, and loads of volunteer hours, pray to the virgin mary, and sacrifice your first born"
And all of the med students I talk to in my hospital Gpa 3.5-3.7 average mcat score and no volunteering whatsoever. Plus applied to maybe our 3 state schools, or just two LSU schools.

Don't get me wrong, I'm going to do every single thing possible to get in. I have 6 doctors lined up for shadowing, have 2 years left and am really racking up volunteer hours, and am trying to have an outstanding GPA and MCAT, but sometimes I wonder if we worry ourselves silly. I mean my cousins wife got in and she had a 3.7 GPA, 511 MCAT, and did ONE mission trip out of the blue for her application and only applied to LSU NO and got in right out of college.
Click to expand...
The thing is , that is really what you need to make it. I think what happens is that since so many people who have no business applying apply, acceptance rates at med schools are so low that people think you need to be at or above average to get in anywhere, and that's just not true.
 
mwsapphire said:
The thing is , that is really what you need to make it. I think what happens is that since so many people who have no business applying apply, acceptance rates at med schools are so low that people think you need to be at or above average to get in anywhere, and that's just not true.
Click to expand...

Less than 50% of all applicants are admitted so yes, you do need to be better than the "average" applicant to be admitted.
 
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mwsapphire said:
The thing is , that is really what you need to make it. I think what happens is that since so many people who have no business applying apply, acceptance rates at med schools are so low that people think you need to be at or above average to get in anywhere, and that's just not true.
Click to expand...
Oh I'm in it to win it. If I could count the number of times my girlfriend says "I doubt you need to do all of this" or "what if you would've gotten in anyway? You could've done something else with that time."

It's like I told the BOLOs when I was my MP Company's shooting coach. The difference in a good shot and a great shot is how precise you are, don't aim for the entire silhuette. Make every shot perfectly in the center of that silhuette. Every shot must be like it is the only one that matters.

I'd rather waste time chasing shadows and volunteer hours than sit there wishing i got in. I guess I'm just amazed at these med students and their qualifications that got them in.
 
LizzyM said:
Less than 50% of all applicants are admitted to yes, you do need to be better than the "average" applicant to be admitted.
Click to expand...
But you don't need to be above the average accepted applicant. Is what I meant. My bad. Poor choice of words. You can be within range for accepted ( IQR) and still be fine. People often tout the " less than 50 percent of applicants get in anywhere" to try to make it seem like you need to be at/above average for accepted students to get in anywhere.
 
mwsapphire said:
But you don't need to be above the average accepted applicant. Is what I meant. My bad. Poor choice of words. You can be within range for accepted ( IQR) and still be fine. People often tout the " less than 50 percent of applicants get in anywhere" to try to make it seem like you need to be at/above average for accepted students to get in anywhere.
Click to expand...
If you aim to be the average successful applicant, you may very well fail to reach that goal. And if you do, you won't have the necessary profile to be successful. Things come up, that 3.7 turns into a 3.5 or CARS kills you on test day and that 510 average turns to a 505.

My transcript could be be better and I didn't hit my goal MCAT by any means. Means a few schools I'm interested in, especially a couple in the Midwest, aren't reasonable to apply to. But I know at least my app on paper won't hold me back from getting in somewhere. Could've ended up worse if I hadn't aimed for higher, realistic outcomes.
 
altblue said:
If you aim to be the average successful applicant, you may very well fail to reach that goal. And if you do, you won't have the necessary profile to be successful. Things come up, that 3.7 turns into a 3.5 or CARS kills you on test day and that 510 average turns to a 505.

My transcript could be be better and I didn't hit my goal MCAT by any means. Means a few schools I'm interested in, especially a couple in the Midwest, aren't reasonable to apply to. But I know at least my app on paper won't hold me back from getting in somewhere. Could've ended up worse if I hadn't aimed for higher, realistic outcomes.
Click to expand...
I was more talking about when all is said and done, if a 3.5 GPA and a 511 MCAT are all you have then you'd still be fine, just apply carefully and apply DO as well. ( 505 MCAT is a bit of a stretch XD)

Yes, Ofc aim for all A's, aim for the best possible MCAT so if you fall short you're still great. I just meant if all is said and done and you're a bit below average for succesful applicants ( as in, those who apply and get in, not the whole applicant pool) , you're not actually not competitive.
 
mwsapphire said:
I was more talking about when all is said and done, if a 3.5 GPA and a 511 MCAT are all you have then you'd still be fine, just apply carefully and apply DO as well. ( 505 MCAT is a bit of a stretch XD)

Yes, Ofc aim for all A's, aim for the best possible MCAT so if you fall short you're still great. I just meant if all is said and done and you're a bit below average for succesful applicants ( as in, those who apply and get in, not the whole applicant pool) , you're not actually not competitive.
Click to expand...
Oh okay, I gotcha
 
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