I didn't have any PC tears my first 30 (probably because of caution) but I think the rate has actually been shown to increase around 40-60 as your confidence outstrips your abilities. Although I didn't have a PC tear, my second case ever was a boxer who was hiding a little treat of missing zonules under his iris- I had the honor of soiling myself as the lens and bag dropped back into his vitreous- me left holding the nucleus cracker in horror. Of course, because bad things only happen to nice people, he ended up being the sweetest guy ever and thanking me the next day for "spending so much extra time on him" in the OR. "I could tell you really cared doc."
Anywho- PC tears happen to everyone eventually. I think your attending and technique utilized has a lot to do with your rate- if you're just sticking with cautious divide and conquer you'll probably have less to start out. I've done about 70-80 and knock on wood haven't had any- but my attendings encourage a VERY conservative technique. Posterior polar cat tomorrow so maybe its D-Day- we'll see.