Anesthesiology Boom

[donnap86]

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OK, so, I'm an undergrad with alot of years ahead of me and I very interested in anesthesiology. I've done alot of research and of all other fields in medicine I think I'd really enjoy this the most (plus, great lifestyle for a family, 4 yr. residency, great pay, etc). In fact, I know I would love it but I've noticed that it seems like EVERYONE (ok, almost everyone) is going into anes. I was looking thru match lists and I noticed that in the mid/late 90's very few people was going in this field. I heard this was b/c anes weren't getting paid **** b/c there was too many and new grads were begging for jobs that were only paying 100K out of residency w/ 3-5 yrs before making partner. Now, b/c of the shortage created in mid/late 90's the field started paying better 200-300k out of residency w/ 1-2 yrs before partner creating a boom and a massive interest in anesthesiology. I am aware that there still is a shortage but it won't last very long since so many are going into anesthesiology. I'm only 2nd yr undergrad but I really want to know what u residents/in practice gas docs think about this.

How long do u think this will last? Do u think that b/c so many are going into anes right now that pretty soon there's going to be too many gas docs and history will repeat itself? or, Do u think this is a steady rise that will last for quite so time?

Side note: Irregardless of pay I'm sure I'll be going into this field (hopefully) , but I don't want to be done with residency and then can't find a job. Any thoughts.

 

[lvspro]

I got this one fellas... and fellette's

Anesthesiologists are in high demand now b/c there is something of a shortage going on. During the "great depression of anesthesiology (GDA)," A smaller number of students applied, and as a result of the decreased supply, the demand went up.
Also, baby boomers are getting to that age where surgical therapy becomes more common. Things like CABG, certain tumors, vascular surgeries etc... are things we see in older people, and as a result of the increased number of people, a larger surgical volume is being generated. Coupled with this is an increased need for anesthesia.
THIS IS KEY. Another piece of the equation is the number of programs. After the GDA, program #'s decreased. If you look in the statistics on FRIEDA, though, you will see that program number is increasing. Even so, the number of gradutes is less than the total need, hence, a strong landscape for up-and-coming MDA's. This is the model adopted for opthalmology, which makes sure the supply stays just under the level of demand. This produces enuf work for everyone.
This information can be backed up by a mayo study, as well as a study that I quoted in one of my earlier posts. I'll leave it to you to look it up. Both studies predict AT LEAST a 10 year deficit. This would put you at your first year out of residency, and with some good searching, I think you could find yourself a good job.
A quick word on the CRNA-MDA situation. It's been going on for years, each side gets a tug at the rope for a few years, only to lose any ground gained at a later date. Feel free to do your own research, but this is also a personal observation.

Hope this helps

 

[Pooh & Annie]

That's great info that I was wondering about, too. I'm a 4th year going into anesthesiology, and had concerns about the short and long-term demand. Is the likelihood that the shortage will end in about ten years due to the fact that programs will continue to increase in size and number until then? Why would the ASA not continue to keep the supply just below the demand like it and other specialty associations are doing currently? Or will they, but the void won't be as huge as its been recently?
Thanks for sharing the knowledge...

 

[militarymd]

Thanks for sharing the knowledge...

You can't share what is not known.

 

[donnap86]

Thanks for ur helpful replies.

 

[lvspro]

Hey
As military stated, there is no crystal ball that shows EXACTLY what is known. Thanks for inserting the ole' checks and balances post military.
That being said, I will quote what I said in my last post

"THIS IS KEY. Another piece of the equation is the number of programs. After the GDA, program #'s decreased. If you look in the statistics on FRIEDA, though, you will see that program number is increasing. Even so, the number of gradutes is less than the total need, hence, a strong landscape for up-and-coming MDA's. This is the model adopted for opthalmology, which makes sure the supply stays just under the level of demand. This produces enuf work for everyone."

Will the shortage end the day after the 10 yr mark? I don't know. Even so, like I said b4, with all the up and coming boomers, I am having trouble seeing an oversupply.

 

[rs2006]

Just out of curiosity, what is it drove the decline in anesthesia applicants during the mid 1990s?

 

[lvspro]

Hey
I think that everyone thought that MDA's were gonna be replaced by CRNA's. Not too sure if this is right. Anyone else have anything they wanna add?

 

[blocks]

That was the underlying sentiment, with fear and paranoia taking off like wildfire. There was the classic article in the Wall Street Journal on 3/17/95 that proclaimed the death of the profession, and I think that applications dropped through the floor the following year.

From WSJ archives, 3/17/95:

Numb and Number: Once a Hot Specialty, Anesthesiology Cools As Insurers Scale Back --- Health-Care Workers Find Fewer Jobs, Lower Pay In Era of Cost-Cutting --- Working Harder for $100,000

By By George Anders, The Wall Street Journal, 1904 words
Mar 17, 1995

After six months of looking, Dr. Kwan got just one full-time offer, to join a group practice at $120,000 a year. He turned it down because the pay was less than half what other partners were making and because the job didn't make use of his subspecialty: anesthesia for cardiac surgery. He thought something better would come along. It hasn't.


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