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- Jul 11, 2016
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So with a new week ahead:
1. The confirmed COVID-19 cases will pass 800,000 in the US, deaths will pass 50,000 - meaning 6-7% of confirmed cases die from infection (much higher than the projected 1-2% many models predicted). These are horrible numbers, but that won’t stop some governors from re-opening their states in little over a week from now.
2. Unemployment claims numbers will be close to 30 million over the last 4 weeks. Some states declared they will be out of funds to pay unemployment benefits as early as May/June.
3. The PPE shortage will continue increase as some non-medical businesses start to order them as their employees go back to work on May 1. Creating even more backlog on medical and dental services/offices PPE orders. Specially on the N95 masks, which will not be widely available for the coming months.
4. We could see more protests on state capitols - as Trump rallies more angry people on twitter, to pressure their governors to open their states. Possible early signs of unrest in some parts of the country, as people slowly start to get desperate.
5. Congress will rush to pass more payroll stimulus for small businesses, but again will not be enough and will be depleted within days, as banks will focus on helping the businesses that need large transactions, leaving very small businesses little to borrow - and the final nail in the coffin for them to close for good.
Let’s hope I’m wrong, but this is the direction the country and our economy is heading in the short term.
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Be careful! You can't just take the number of deaths and divide it by the number of confirmed cases to calculate the death rate. There are a great deal of people who have not been tested, presumably those who have not had a severe case of the disease. Dr. Fauci, himself, estimates that between 25% and 50% of cases are asymptomatic. The lower death rates you see are coming from mathematic models taking these people into account. We won't truly know the death rate until large scale testing is done to know who has actually had the disease. I assure you the death rate is not 6-7%. There are a decent number of people out there who don't even know that they had covid-19.