I am hearing some mixed advice on the matter, but basically the people I trust keep telling me that GPA in medical school is virtually irrelevant in the first two years... their order was..
1.step 1
2.step 2
3.3rd year grades
4.letters of recomm.
any agreements or arguments?
I respectfully disagree.
I would say that in and of themselves, perhaps grades from first and second year matter less, but they are really important as far as election to AOA is concerned, at least at my school. And whether or not you're in AOA does matter. Third year grades are really important though...not only do they (theoretically) reflect how you perform clinically, but they also make up a lot of your deans letter and the attendings you meet during third year are going to be the ones writing your letters of recommendation in many cases.
I also totally disagree that step 2 is more important than third year grades/grades in general. Many people don't even take step 2 til the spring of 4th year, so I'd say it's less important. Some people take it earlier to make up for a weak step 1, so I guess it matters a little more in that case, but I'd still argue not more than grades.
LOR's are also not that important, at least from what I've heard. Unless it's from someone the person reading the letter knows, or someone very prominant who you've worked with personally, I feel like most people get letters from people who are going to say nice things about them, limiting their utility. I think the deans letter, which compares you to your classmates and is supposed to be much more objective is far more important than letters of recommendation.
Extra-curriculars/research/publications also fit in there somewhere, although I'd put research w/ publications above extra curricular stuff at most university programs.
So, I'd say that the most important things are going to be grades/AOA status and step 1. Then I'd say deans letter, then research w/ publications, then LOR's/research w/o publications/extra-curriculars.