Applications are down this year (2021-2022)

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PhDnontrad

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I was curious if applications skyrocketed again this year like they did last year, so I did some internet sleuthing using the way back machine. I looked at the number of applications at this point in the cycle at Vanderbilt and Michigan in previous years. Based on the wayback machine, both schools typically receive very few applications between this time of year and their respective application deadlines.
Checking their application totals, Vanderbilt ended up with ~7400 at the end of the cycle last year, but only has ~7050 right now. Michigan had ~10600 at the end of last cycle, but is down to ~9300 today. That's a 5% drop and a 12% drop, respectively. Please correct me if I'm confused! 🙂

tldr: Applications to medical school are down this year.
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PhDnontrad said:
I was curious if applications skyrocketed again this year like they did last year, so I did some internet sleuthing using the way back machine. I looked at the number of applications at this point in the cycle at Vanderbilt and Michigan in previous years. Based on the wayback machine, both schools typically receive very few applications between this time of year and their respective application deadlines.
Checking their application totals, Vanderbilt ended up with ~7400 at the end of the cycle last year, but only has ~7050 right now. Michigan had ~10600 at the end of last cycle, but is down to ~9300 today. That's a 5% drop and a 12% drop, respectively. Please correct me if I'm confused! 🙂

tldr: Applications to medical school are down this year.
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Just two medical schools--these data points may be outliers. 5% and 12% aren't nec. significant percentages, either.
We will probably have to wait until the end of the cycle to get a definitive answer from the AAMC using standard deviation and whatnot.
 
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Does it matter when it is ~6,000-9,000 more applicants to a given school than seats available at that school? I would get excited if the number dropped by 75% but not when it drops by such a small proportion that it puts the likelihood of admission, if it were purely by chance, in the single digits.
 
Well, if you assume a 10% reduction in the number of overall applicants, then last year's 37% overall acceptance rate (22239 matriculants for 60530 applicants) to any school increases to a 42% overall acceptance rate (~22939 matriculants for ~54477 applicants), which is about the same overall acceptance rate as pre-pandemic. Everyone has been talking about how the "Fauci effect" has made it difficult to get into medical school, but these (super preliminary) data imply the Fauci effect is already basically gone. I'm not trying to claim this is super accurate or even consequential, but I hope it is at least somewhat encouraging/comforting to other stressed applicants!
 
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wysdoc said:
Numbers in Texas are even higher than last year from what I can see
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Very interesting! I wonder what's unique about Texas compared to them being down everywhere else. (Best of luck to you going through your chunk of the apps. I'm sure that's a lot of work!)
 
RespectTheChemistry said:
Very interesting! I wonder what's unique about Texas compared to them being down everywhere else. (Best of luck to you going through your chunk of the apps. I'm sure that's a lot of work!)
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The deadline for primary apps on TMDSAS is November 1, so I should be able to get the number of applications started and completed applications submitted pretty soon. Almost half of people who start one don't follow through and submit it! But the number of complete apps is still projected to be more than last year.
 
wysdoc said:
The deadline for primary apps on TMDSAS is November 1, so I should be able to get the number of applications started and completed applications submitted pretty soon. Almost half of people who start one don't follow through and submit it! But the number of complete apps is still projected to be more than last year.
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@wysdoc Do you think the increase in applications from last year to this year could be due to Baylor joining TMDSAS?
 
PhDnontrad said:
@wysdoc Do you think the increase in applications from last year to this year could be due to Baylor joining TMDSAS?
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This^^ is EXACTLY what I was thinking. If last year's number includes Baylor, then it's pretty impressive that TX is seemingly bucking a national trend. Otherwise, Baylor is definitely goosing the reported TMDSAS numbers.
 
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LizzyM said:
Does it matter when it is ~6,000-9,000 more applicants to a given school than seats available at that school? I would get excited if the number dropped by 75% but not when it drops by such a small proportion that it puts the likelihood of admission, if it were purely by chance, in the single digits.
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Very true. I can tell you, though, as someone on the other side of the wall, that watching it get insanely more competitive each year for the past few years was no fun. Especially with the crazy surge last year that undoubtedly brought the national acceptance rate below 40%.

Does it make a difference? Only to the extent that you are a borderline candidate and one of the additional 10K candidates takes a seat away from you. Then, it's the difference between another gap year and being a M1, which is nothing other than all the difference in the world.

Personally, based on early projections by the @gonnifs of the world that apps would be up another several thousand from last year, and that the trend would continue for at least the next several years, yes, I will be excited if these numbers end up being true and applications have dropped between 5-10% from last year. That would signal to me that last year was a one-off due to the pandemic, and that the impact is already receding. In hindsight, it looks like early comparisons to last year were skewed by delays at the beginning of the cycle last year and lots of early applicants and reapplicants this year that were not subject to early processing delays.

In fact, given the huge number of reapplicants that must be in this year's pool after last year's surge, if the total pool is down 5-10%, the first time pool is likely down a lot more, maybe even back to pre-pandemic numbers. If so, yes, that will be significant to everyone not at the very top of the applicant pool.

As an applicant who did not receive a ton of early IIs, and is evidently not at the top of too many schools' wish lists, yup, I'd much rather be competing with 8,500 people for 150 spots than 10,000, or 12,000.
 
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PhDnontrad said:
I was curious if applications skyrocketed again this year like they did last year, so I did some internet sleuthing using the way back machine. I looked at the number of applications at this point in the cycle at Vanderbilt and Michigan in previous years. Based on the wayback machine, both schools typically receive very few applications between this time of year and their respective application deadlines.
Checking their application totals, Vanderbilt ended up with ~7400 at the end of the cycle last year, but only has ~7050 right now. Michigan had ~10600 at the end of last cycle, but is down to ~9300 today. That's a 5% drop and a 12% drop, respectively. Please correct me if I'm confused! 🙂

tldr: Applications to medical school are down this year.
Click to expand...
I have interviewed several med school adcom earlier this cycle and most indicated that apps were at last year's level or above. Duke's adcom director specifically said when I asked about application volume. "We did our first podcast three years ago (at roughly the same point in the application cycle) and at the time, there were 4,330 applications from AMCAS. Right now, there are 6,267 applications. But the even more important part here is at that time, we had 1,100 completed Duke secondaries. Now, we’re at 2,155 and this is only 20 days into our cycle."

That was much earlier in the cycle so things could have changed, but...
 
LindaAccepted said:
I have interviewed several med school adcom earlier this cycle and most indicated that apps were at last year's level or above. Duke's adcom director specifically said when I asked about application volume. "We did our first podcast three years ago (at roughly the same point in the application cycle) and at the time, there were 4,330 applications from AMCAS. Right now, there are 6,267 applications. But the even more important part here is at that time, we had 1,100 completed Duke secondaries. Now, we’re at 2,155 and this is only 20 days into our cycle."

That was much earlier in the cycle so things could have changed, but...
Click to expand...

Would be curious to know how many are re-apps.
 
Dobermann said:
Can you really say they’re “down everywhere else” based on data from two schools?
Click to expand...

I must have misunderstood the OP, then. I thought the OP meant that applications through AMCAS are all down and wysdoc was saying applications through TMSDAS were up.
 
LindaAccepted said:
I have interviewed several med school adcom earlier this cycle and most indicated that apps were at last year's level or above. Duke's adcom director specifically said when I asked about application volume. "We did our first podcast three years ago (at roughly the same point in the application cycle) and at the time, there were 4,330 applications from AMCAS. Right now, there are 6,267 applications. But the even more important part here is at that time, we had 1,100 completed Duke secondaries. Now, we’re at 2,155 and this is only 20 days into our cycle."

That was much earlier in the cycle so things could have changed, but...
Click to expand...
Yes. Two months ago, this was the word on the street. If @PhDnontrad's wayback machine is not broken, however, the answer is going to be that early comparisons were skewed by the processing delays last year.
 
Again, this is all super preliminary, but another data point is Wayne State, which had ~9100 apps by October 24 last year and only has ~7050 today. That's a 23% reduction in apps.
 
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PhDnontrad said:
Again, this is all super preliminary, but another data point is Wayne State, which had ~9100 apps by October 24 last year and only has ~7050 today. That's a 24% reduction in apps.
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I have a feeling you might be onto something here! (At least I hope so! 🙂)

It does make certain amount of sense as the so-called Fauci effect dissipated and working in health care came to be seen by the general public as less sexy with vaccine resistance, wave after wave of infections, the country opening back up and people once again having other opportunities, etc.
 
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PhDnontrad said:
Well, if you assume a 10% reduction in the number of overall applicants, then last year's 37% overall acceptance rate (22239 matriculants for 60530 applicants) to any school increases to a 42% overall acceptance rate (~22939 matriculants for ~54477 applicants), which is about the same overall acceptance rate as pre-pandemic. Everyone has been talking about how the "Fauci effect" has made it difficult to get into medical school, but these (super preliminary) data imply the Fauci effect is already basically gone. I'm not trying to claim this is super accurate or even consequential, but I hope it is at least somewhat encouraging/comforting to other stressed applicants!
Click to expand...
I've always been a bit confused about the timing of the Fauci effect. If the pandemic has driven more people to pursue medicine, wouldn't you think that you'd see an uptick in applications a few years after the pandemic given that premed is a long path? I would imagine that a lot of people who applied in 2020 were already premed and applied to med school for reasons aside from the pandemic (given that in order to apply like 4 months after the start of the pandemic, they would've had to have been premed for some time already)
 
MyOdyssey said:
It’s not too late to cobble together a peer reviewed publication on the half life of public interested behavior in the wake of natural disaster for this cycle, is it?
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It's all yours. My application is already in! 😎
 
I wonder if the decline can be attributed to rising college seniors and recent grads who feel the need for a gap year (or another gap year) due to an application that is a bit flabby at the moment due to the pandemic. That could result in a rebound next year.

Holland said:
I've always been a bit confused about the timing of the Fauci effect. If the pandemic has driven more people to pursue medicine, wouldn't you think that you'd see an uptick in applications a few years after the pandemic given that premed is a long path? I would imagine that a lot of people who applied in 2020 were already premed and applied to med school for reasons aside from the pandemic (given that in order to apply like 4 months after the start of the pandemic, they would've had to have been premed for some time already)
Click to expand...

Some pre-meds who were prepared to matriculate in 2021 (and so applying a few months into the pandemic) may have decided to apply rather than applying for a gap year job in a lucrative field (consulting, finance, etc). Ditto the big hearted folks who might have signed up for Peace Corps, Teach for America, etc. With everything going on, many may have ditched gap year plans and gone straight to AMCAS.
 
Holland said:
I've always been a bit confused about the timing of the Fauci effect. If the pandemic has driven more people to pursue medicine, wouldn't you think that you'd see an uptick in applications a few years after the pandemic given that premed is a long path? I would imagine that a lot of people who applied in 2020 were already premed and applied to med school for reasons aside from the pandemic (given that in order to apply like 4 months after the start of the pandemic, they would've had to have been premed for some time already)
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The 'Fauci Effect' was BS. Mostly people were applying because they didn't think they could get gap year research/peace corps/MA/anything jobs. So they threw together quick apps and many of them weren't fully prepared. Some were even relying on the fact that the MCAT was not used for a few schools. We're in a correction period right now but it will take a while to full return to normal, whatever that is
 
So this is purely anecdote and speculation, but:

I talked to a few former admissions deans and even current adcoms that review apps for applicants, and they all told me they have been recommending a higher than typical percentage of applicants not to apply, as there has been a dearth of available clinical positions for volunteers this past year. As such, most applicants have a substantial gap in clinical endeavors, and even in research, and other areas as many activities/clubs were paused because of COVID and even when resumed, didn't proceed that well.

Of course, these are small sample sizes, so can't draw any massive conclusions here. But I do know, personally, of a lot of people that feel they need a year of non-COVID during which they can ramp up their activities. I suspect next year might be brutal, as many of the people that were not accepted from last year reapply with these activities.
 
gonnif said:
preliminary "gossip" from people at AMCAS suggest 7% rise over last cycle. The two pandemic cycles together be 20%-25% increase in applications over pre-pandemic levels
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Yes. I referred to that above. Current info from the few schools that share indicate the preliminary assessment was wrong. If so, my bet is that is because early numbers this year were compared to a time last year when application processing was significantly delayed.

As a result, the early numbers this year looked strong, but then dropped off a cliff as there were no significant delays this cycle, and lots of people probably submitted early after their experience last year. If @PhDnontrad's numbers hold up, that 20-25% is going to be cut in half. Still not too shabby, but it will indicate that last year was a one-off jump, followed by a retrenchment, rather than the start of a super cycle.
 
iHawk_MD said:
The 'Fauci Effect' was BS. Mostly people were applying because they didn't think they could get gap year research/peace corps/MA/anything jobs. So they threw together quick apps and many of them weren't fully prepared. Some were even relying on the fact that the MCAT was not used for a few schools. We're in a correction period right now but it will take a while to full return to normal, whatever that is
Click to expand...
Yea, this was somewhat me. I had a great application, but with little to no clinical experience, and rationalized applying anyway by saying "because of COVID, they'll probably excuse lack of clinical"

Can confirm, they did not excuse it.
 
iHawk_MD said:
The 'Fauci Effect' was BS. Mostly people were applying because they didn't think they could get gap year research/peace corps/MA/anything jobs. So they threw together quick apps and many of them weren't fully prepared. Some were even relying on the fact that the MCAT was not used for a few schools. We're in a correction period right now but it will take a while to full return to normal, whatever that is
Click to expand...

Can we rename it too? I have yet to see anyone take a look at Fauci and go “omg I really want to be a doctor now.”
 
KnightDoc said:
Yes. I referred to that above. Current info from the few schools that share indicate the preliminary assessment was wrong. If so, my bet is that is because early numbers this year were compared to a time last year when application processing was significantly delayed.

As a result, the early numbers this year looked strong, but then dropped off a cliff as there were no significant delays this cycle, and lots of people probably submitted early after their experience last year. If @PhDnontrad's numbers hold up, that 20-25% is going to be cut in half. Still not too shabby, but it will indicate that last year was a one-off jump, followed by a retrenchment, rather than the start of a super cycle.
Click to expand...
Yes, I still think we're higher than pre-pandemic, but not as high as mid-pandemic.
 
doomer_md said:
Can we rename it too? I have yet to see anyone take a look at Fauci and go “omg I really want to be a doctor now.”
Click to expand...
Does anyone know who coined the term? I remember reading that on CNN last year and going "you've got to be kidding me, this is definitely not the reason".
 
sadwinter said:
So this is purely anecdote and speculation, but:

I talked to a few former admissions deans and even current adcoms that review apps for applicants, and they all told me they have been recommending a higher than typical percentage of applicants not to apply, as there has been a dearth of available clinical positions for volunteers this past year. As such, most applicants have a substantial gap in clinical endeavors, and even in research, and other areas as many activities/clubs were paused because of COVID and even when resumed, didn't proceed that well.

Of course, these are small sample sizes, so can't draw any massive conclusions here. But I do know, personally, of a lot of people that feel they need a year of non-COVID during which they can ramp up their activities. I suspect next year might be brutal, as many of the people that were not accepted from last year reapply with these activities.
Click to expand...
I don't that would be a significant driver here. Everyone was equally impacted. If true, those sitting out are just making it easier for those who went ahead, since literally almost everyone is going to have a 12-18 month gap in in-person activities, no matter what they had before. Schools are simply not going to screen out otherwise excellent candidates due to an experience gap caused by a global pandemic.

Every year is brutal nowadays. Last year was the worst. This year might be a smidge better. If people actually sat out this year, yeah, they did themselves no favors. This year everyone was impacted by the pandemic. By next year, that will no longer be the case, and their higher in person activity numbers will be met by higher in person activity expectations. No win situation!
 
Here are the numbers for TMDSAS as of July 2021 for EY 2022.
The TMDSAS application deadline for EY 2022 is November 1, so of course all the people who submitted between July 1 and November 1 will add to the total number of applications.

EY 2022 number of submitted applications as of July 1 is down about 3.5% from EY2021, but still higher than the pre-pandemic year EY2020.

Screen Shot 2021-10-29 at 12.37.20 AM.png
 
gonnif said:
what info I am getting is 17% increase from last cycle and about 7% this cycle in number applicants with average of 17 applications per applicant
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Yes, I know, and I have repeated it several times since you first shared it with us.

It is now contradicted by what @PhDnontrad is finding on the websites of the schools that are reporting interim data, as well as by what @wysdoc is reporting with respect to TMDSAS.

My speculation is that it was correct at the time it was shared with you, but was skewed by the fact that the prior year's numbers were suppressed by processing delays at the beginning of last year's cycle, and that, now that we can see comparisons to where things were last October, rather than last August, we are seeing a drop that is taking away around half of last year's increase.

Still higher than two years ago, but more like 10% higher rather than 20-25%. If true, a little unexpected good news for this year's applicants!
 
jhmmd said:
Just two medical schools--these data points may be outliers. 5% and 12% aren't nec. significant percentages, either.
We will probably have to wait until the end of the cycle to get a definitive answer from the AAMC using standard deviation and whatnot.
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Agreed. I’m on a review committee and ours is up, and an additional group of alumni reviewers had to be enlisted to assist due to the volume. Not to burst any bubbles but it could be regional variations, not national.
 
Spine MD said:
Agreed. I’m on a review committee and ours is up, and an additional group of alumni reviewers had to be enlisted to assist due to the volume. Not to burst any bubbles but it could be regional variations, not national.
Click to expand...
Okay, but the two schools cited grew to three, and a post on another thread indicated that TX is down quite a bit after stripping out an increase in vet school apps. If true, TX represents 12 schools right there. Combined with the other three, this is 10% of all schools in the country. Maybe your school is the outlier. 🙂

At some point, scattered data points become a trend. A drop after the surge last year shouldn't shock anyone, since the speculation last year was that the national shut down pushed a lot of applications forward. Also tough to discern a regional pattern between MI, TN and TX. 🙂
 
KnightDoc said:
Okay, but the two schools cited grew to three, and a post on another thread indicated that TX is down quite a bit after stripping out an increase in vet school apps. If true, TX represents 12 schools right there. Combined with the other three, this is 10% of all schools in the country. Maybe your school is the outlier. 🙂

At some point, scattered data points become a trend. A drop after the surge last year shouldn't shock anyone, since the speculation last year was that the national shut down pushed a lot of applications forward. Also tough to discern a regional pattern between MI, TN and TX. 🙂
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I mean, you can’t count Texas at all (besides TCU-UNT) because we’re specifically looking at AMCAS data. That’s where the 17% increase is coming from.
 
Dobermann said:
I mean, you can’t count Texas at all (besides TCU-UNT) because we’re specifically looking at AMCAS data. That’s where the 17% increase is coming from.
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Sure I can! TX MD schools report through, and are members of, AAMC, even though they don't participate in AMCAS. They are included in last year's 18% increase, and will contribute to any decrease this year. If you look at AAMC Table A-1, you will see all TX MD schools present and accounted for. 🙂

It's all good. I just really don't get some people's seeming vested interest in seeing the numbers be up again this year, especially as numbers are starting to dribble in that contradict it.
 
KnightDoc said:
Sure I can! TX MD schools report through, and are members of, AAMC, even though they don't participate in AMCAS. They are included in last year's 18% increase, and will contribute to any decrease this year. If you look at AAMC Table A-1, you will see all TX MD schools present and accounted for. 🙂

It's all good. I just really don't get some people's seeming vested interest in seeing the numbers be up again this year, especially as numbers are starting to dribble in that contradict it.
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I think they're just worried hoping for a decrease may be overly optimistic. They worry seems to extend to the point where it seems almost as if they want it not to happen lol
 
sadwinter said:
I think they're just worried hoping for a decrease may be overly optimistic. They worry seems to extend to the point where it seems almost as if they want it not to happen lol
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Maybe, but that makes no sense. First of all, worrying or rooting isn't actually going to change anything. More importantly, as @LizzyM pointed out, the odds of success will still be in the low single digits at most schools, regardless. A drop taking back some of last year's surge will just represent a small amount of relief, keeping it from getting even worse.

I just hope @gonnif provides some kind of reward when I win his pool! 😎 The numbers are starting to come into focus, and, in hindsight, the explanation makes perfect sense -- early reports of an increase this year being skewed by processing delays at the beginning of the cycle last year, and last year's surge at the beginning of the pandemic being partially fed by pulling applications forward from this cycle, which has to serve to somewhat suppress applications this year, since there is no equal force this year pulling applications forward from next year.
 
solitarius said:
People got real and figured out it isn't worth if for them.
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Perhaps but it’s actually less costly than ever before. No way would I have been able to keep my job if I had to actually travel for 13+ interviews. Also it probably would have cost 10,000 in travel fees. Virtual interviews makes the med school cycle more economical.

Only thing is emotional/mental anguish
 
I’m going to try writing an ML script this weekend. Then I will compare to the actual results once they’re released. I think there is enough data between tracker schools, SDN/dataking results, and old aamc releases

Could be useful for future cycle if it works
 
KnightDoc said:
Yes. Two months ago, this was the word on the street. If @PhDnontrad's wayback machine is not broken, however, the answer is going to be that early comparisons were skewed by the processing delays last year.
Click to expand...
That's possible, but the Duke dean was comparing to 2018, not 2020.
 
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