psycscientist, thank you for your comprehensive and frank reply. It's good to know that some correlates that aren't related to self-report are at least sometimes taken into account.
PSYDR, I believe your doubting isn't to be doubted
🙂 but it seems like confidence in a given provider's clinical judgement might not be always be justified wrt people with different training, experience, and skills, in different settings.
LucidMind, thanks for the recommendation, I'll have a look.
Interested for sure in approaches that do not rely so much on explicit self-report. Epidemiological correlates can't be highly predictive on their own. I did find a recent paper in which researchers did a linguistic analysis of practioners' notes (
Predicting the Risk of Suicide by Analyzing the Text of Clinical Notes), also not so strong, but interesting, I think. Would be interested too in similar analyses of transcripts of past therapeutic interviews/sessions with people who've completed suicide or homicide. But, seems that kind of research is preliminary and so far mostly equivocal. Hard to see how any applications would practically work in existing health care systems, given (possibly) fragmented information flows, variable training, etc. And some patients only see psychiatrists or GPs twice a year and get no therapy at all.
(I am thinking the Google of a few years ago might have been able to make a fair prediction based on search terms, for all it would help in practice, given that the data would have to be preemptively attached to an identifiable individual. People hate Google enough already, with good reason.)