Bad year for waitlistees

[size_tens]

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To all those like myself wondering why there seems to be less WL movement this year than in years past, it's not just your imagination. I counted up all the movement so far this year on the official WL thread and it totalled up to 67. In comparison, at the same point last year, 193 spots had been offered to waitlisted applicants. Life sucks sometimes doesn't it?

 

[MabdulD]

This seems kind of unscientific...

Was last year's WL thread hidden away in Sticky land? Anyway, maybe it all means there's plenty of movement to come.

 

[balaA7180]

Let's hope so!!!

 

[bkmonkey]

only time will tell...

 

[medstylee]

it's time to bump this thread from last year. July will be our month guys. word.

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=73057&highlight=july

 

[EvoDevo]

Yep. It does seem that way. @ the one school I'm WL'd @, they've had NO movement this year vs. 50+ last year. 😕

 

[WiscoFan14]

Hey,

Hang in there everyone. Being waitlisted sucks...I know because I was waitlisted 2 years in a row...and I didn't get in either year. I finally got in on my third try. A bunch of people that I know in med school were waitlisted a few years as well. So if you are waitlisted...and you aren't taken off of a waitlist...just realize that you aren't alone. You'll make it to med school eventually if you want it bad enough...and then you can joke about being waitlisted with your buddies.

In the meantime...try not to think about it...go out and enjoy the freedom you have by not being in school and having to study all the time.

 

[IceKid]

Hey,

go out and enjoy the freedom you have by not being in school and having to study all the time.

yes... but i almost WANT to study... my job is sooo boring! (i assure you i will never say that once i've started school.) but these waitlists are killing me (3 of them). the only thing that was getting me through my boring lab job before was the thought that i was leaving, and i may not get to leave now!

 

[aloughhe]

Yep. It does seem that way. @ the one school I'm WL'd @, they've had NO movement this year vs. 50+ last year. 😕

I'm waitlisted at 2 schools, and neither of them have had ANY movement this year, also. It just seems strange. Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought all schools had at least minimal movement each year? Should we be confident that it will move in July, or start to accept that we have to go through this crap again?

 

[hakksar]

The thing everyone is forgetting is that SDN is not a complete record of all med school applicants. There is no way to ensure that last year and this year have the same sample size, demographics, or level of reporting on SDN. I am pretty sure there is about the same WL movement this year as every other year but maybe SDN is not recording it accurately due to one of the reasons listed above. In other words stop trying to read into it since these discrepancies are not scientific at all.

 

[EvoDevo]

The thing everyone is forgetting is that SDN is not a complete record of all med school applicants. There is no way to ensure that last year and this year have the same sample size, demographics, or level of reporting on SDN. I am pretty sure there is about the same WL movement this year as every other year but maybe SDN is not recording it accurately due to one of the reasons listed above. In other words stop trying to read into it since these discrepancies are not scientific at all.

Actually, no. According the school (which has been very honest about the whole process) this is a VERY unusual year for them.

 

[IceKid]

Actually, no. According the school (which has been very honest about the whole process) this is a VERY unusual year for them.

yep, same at 2/3 of my waitlist schools...

 

[ZOT! ZOT!]

Also, not everyone who has been taken off of waitlists has posted in the waitlist thread. I know I didn't, and I know a couple other SDNers haven't, so maybe it's just a lack of energy to search for the watlist thread...

 

[size_tens]

I doubt that the level of reporting is so off that it would result in a nearly 3:1 difference. I know that SLU and Tulane have both seen significantly less movement than last year (this is coming straight from the deans of admissions at both schools). We can only hope that there will be a miraculous surge of movement in July. Unfortunately I don't think it's going to happen. For those few fortunate enough to progress from waitlist purgatory to acceptance heaven, be sure to thank your lucky stars.

 

[Jalby]

My school is also having record low movement of waitlist. I'm willing to bet that it has to do with the fact that applications are up this year. Also, I think SDN is a good cross-ection of Pre-meds as a whole, so there would be no sampling bias. Also, there are more posters this year on SDN than last year, so if anything the numbers last year are underreported compared to this year.

 

[LP1CW]

I've thought about this. I think that medical schools have gotten better at accepting students that want to attend their school to begin with. So, they are not accepting students that won't accept. So, that is why we're reading post from students that are surprised that they didn't get into schools that they thought were safe schools.

I don't think it has anything to do with the increase number of applicants, because they are still accepting and waitlisting the same as in years past. This just means that they've rejected more applicants this year. So, if last year they accepted 200 and waitlist 200 at a school, they did it this year. However, this year they might have accepted 200 students that would come there. They've just gotten better at predicting us.

 

[ForensicPath]

I guess I should consider myself fortunate that I got off the waitlist I wanted. Hang in there though, there still is time. I spoke to at least 3 students during my interviews that got off of the waitlist less than 2 weeks before school starts. Have a backup plan, but don't give up just yet.

 

[Rfour]

I got the impression that though total applications are up - the acutal number of students interviewed at any school is the same as before. If so, then waitlist movement should be about the same as in the past - or at least I hope so.

 

[hakksar]

My school is also having record low movement of waitlist. I'm willing to bet that it has to do with the fact that applications are up this year. Also, I think SDN is a good cross-ection of Pre-meds as a whole, so there would be no sampling bias. Also, there are more posters this year on SDN than last year, so if anything the numbers last year are underreported compared to this year.

Actually, if the number of applications are up I think there would be the same movement as always. This is because you can still only attend one school and the top applicants would still receive multiple acceptances. As for SDN I believe that it is actually a cross-section of premeds that represent stronger applicants than the average (this is because they are more informed about the process). As for reporting levels I think one difference this year compared to previous years is that the waitlist movement thread this year is hidden under the title "Official Waitlist Assistance Thread" whereas in previous years it was titled "Official Waitlist Movement Thread" . . . in other words this year it is harder to find. I do agree with the above poster who said schools may be better at picking applicants who want to attend their school. I know my first acceptance was to my top choice school (which caused me to withdraw the remainder of my applications in December).

 

[bigbaubdi]

I've thought about this. I think that medical schools have gotten better at accepting students that want to attend their school to begin with. So, they are not accepting students that won't accept. So, that is why we're reading post from students that are surprised that they didn't get into schools that they thought were safe schools.

I don't think it has anything to do with the increase number of applicants, because they are still accepting and waitlisting the same as in years past. This just means that they've rejected more applicants this year. So, if last year they accepted 200 and waitlist 200 at a school, they did it this year. However, this year they might have accepted 200 students that would come there. They've just gotten better at predicting us.

Interesting theory...

I think this is certainly plausible given the fact that admissions people would like to have their class confirmed and settled. I am sure that they don't want to have to worry about filling 10 spots in mid-July or afterwards.

I think this also applies to people who got in off waitlists as well. For example, the adcom might pick people off waitlists who are much more likely to matriculate if accepted (i.e. people who have written intent letters). Because of this, maybe the admissions committees don't have to dig as deep into their waitlists to fill their class.

 

[Jalby]

I semi mailed in my earlier explanation. What I was meaning to say is this. Since there is a larger aplicant pool, if the same number of early acceptances are given out, these early acceptances would be spread out over a larger number of candidates. So these candidates would be holding less spots than they would before, and there for would be giving up less spots and there would be less movement. You can extrapolate this. If there was 100K aplicants instead of 30K aplicants, and they gave out 16K initial acceptances, chances are each aplicant would get one spot and there would be no or extremely minimal movement. That is one of the things I believe is happening this year. Versus if there was 16K aplicants and 16K spots, people would be changing schools daily until everybody fell into line.

 

[beastmaster]

On what hard evidence are you people basing the assertion that the number of applicants this year has increased?

 

[Medikit]

On what hard evidence are you people basing the assertion that the number of applicants this year has increased?

I think he's basing it on the "trend" as there were more applicants last year than the year before. That hasn't happened since the mid-90s.

 

[IceKid]

I semi mailed in my earlier explanation. What I was meaning to say is this. Since there is a larger aplicant pool, if the same number of early acceptances are given out, these early acceptances would be spread out over a larger number of candidates. So these candidates would be holding less spots than they would before, and there for would be giving up less spots and there would be less movement. You can extrapolate this. If there was 100K aplicants instead of 30K aplicants, and they gave out 16K initial acceptances, chances are each aplicant would get one spot and there would be no or extremely minimal movement. That is one of the things I believe is happening this year. Versus if there was 16K aplicants and 16K spots, people would be changing schools daily until everybody fell into line.

sounds probably about right to me... though it sucks!

 

[pekq]

Interesting theory...

I think this is certainly plausible given the fact that admissions people would like to have their class confirmed and settled. I am sure that they don't want to have to worry about filling 10 spots in mid-July or afterwards.

I think this also applies to people who got in off waitlists as well. For example, the adcom might pick people off waitlists who are much more likely to matriculate if accepted (i.e. people who have written intent letters). Because of this, maybe the admissions committees don't have to dig as deep into their waitlists to fill their class.

Yup, many lower ranked schools have gone BU style. Next they will all probably have a cut off for people with GPA > 3.8 and MCAT >33.

 

[size_tens]

I thought the applicant pool this year was only larger than last year's by about 3%. That wouldn't explain the dramatic decrease in turnover. I don't buy the whole "adcoms are suddenly getting better at picking applicants who want their school" theory either. Everyone can only have one first choice. The best explanation I can come up with is rampant overenrollment pre-May 15. I believe that pretty much every school does this nowadays so that they can minimize the need to pull applicants off their wl. Take a look at Pitt for example. One single person this year reported getting off the Pitt wl on the official thread. Last year there were 15 by the end of June. Even though I have no association with the Pitt admissions office I can almost guarantee that they switched from non-overenrolling to an overenrolling school.

 

[ventulus18]

I thought the applicant pool this year was only larger than last year's by about 3%. That wouldn't explain the dramatic decrease in turnover. I don't buy the whole "adcoms are suddenly getting better at picking applicants who want their school" theory either. Everyone can only have one first choice. The best explanation I can come up with is rampant overenrollment pre-May 15. I believe that pretty much every school does this nowadays so that they can minimize the need to pull applicants off their wl. Take a look at Pitt for example. One single person this year reported getting off the Pitt wl on the official thread. Last year there were 15 by the end of June. Even though I have no association with the Pitt admissions office I can almost guarantee that they switched from non-overenrolling to an overenrolling school.

it seems easier for the schools to "over enroll" because they only have to review your file once after interview, earlier in the game. each time they have to go to an "unranked" waitlist, they have to spend at least a few seconds looking over a couple files again = more work for them.

 

[SaltySqueegee]

it seems easier for the schools to "over enroll" because they only have to review your file once after interview, earlier in the game. each time they have to go to an "unranked" waitlist, they have to spend at least a few seconds looking over a couple files again = more work for them.

This theory that ventulus and sizeten are purporting seems more plausible.

I suppose we'll just have to see next year when the final AMCAS stats come out for each school in the MSAR.
🙄

 

[Jalby]

Umm, no it doesn't seem more plausable. Which do you think a school would rather have??? 10 people extra admitted at the start of the school or the need to take 10 people off the waitlists before school. 4 years ago my school accidently admitted to many people and the had to offer discounts on tuition if people deffered, they got in trouble with aamc, etc, etc.

And the theory that all schools rampantly overbooked one year to the next doesn't seem very plausable, either.

 

[SaltySqueegee]

Umm, no it doesn't seem more plausable.

and it seems more plausible that they have become suddenly more efficient at accepting the applicants that want to go to their school?

They are both interesting, and possibly it is a combination of the two.

Like I said in the previous post, the rest is conjecture until we can look at actual data in next year's MSAR. 🙂

 

[SaltySqueegee]

I think the more plausible theory is that the AdComs are inundated with a crap load more APPLICATIONS (not necessarily APPLICANTS), and the cycle as a whole is being pushed back as a result.

i.e. more applications per applicant. more 'crap' to wade through.

I think you (Jalby) alluded to this earlier?

 

[ventulus18]

i doubt the number of applicants is up (or down) enough to change waitlist patterns. who knows if these patterns have changed at all. the results of the small number of people that actually post on this message board are probably very different than the applicant pool as a whole. who knows

 

[beastmaster]

Yes keep in mind that last year the waitlist threads were stickys. Now they are burried, and casual surfers will much more easy overlook them.

 

[Jalby]

3% would make a huge difference in waitlist movement. Assuming it was totally random distribution of acceptances, the 3% would be spread out over everybody. In my school, out of 168 spots, there would be 5 waitlist movements that wouldn't occur compared to the year before. And this would also trickle down so it would multiply.

And to think that a ton schools suddenly all got more efficient at accepting people who actually go to their school AT THE SAME TIME after 20-50 years of med school admissions seems pretty far fetched.

 

[Jalby]

Yes keep in mind that last year the waitlist threads were stickys. Now they are burried, and casual surfers will much more easy overlook them.

Ther have been individual cases such as UCI and USC with waitlist threads which have had a whole lot less movement this year than last. Not to mention there are more posters on SDN now than before. And the waitlist thread last year wasn't a sticky.

 

[subscapularis]

Whatever the reason for less movement, this whole process sucks. I am on 3 lists and each of them has had little movement. Creighton which is supposed to be a "mover" has according to adcom members moved as much in a month and a half as it did in two weeks last year. That sounds sooooo burking nice.

 

[aloughhe]

I don't think any of the increased applications (especially only 3%) explains schools that admit to not moving at all! I have not heard a plausible reason for schools that have ALWAYS taken people, not taking anyone at all. It just seems too strange to be true.

 

[size_tens]

I don't think any of the increased applications (especially only 3%) explains schools that admit to not moving at all! I have not heard a plausible reason for schools that have ALWAYS taken people, not taking anyone at all. It just seems too strange to be true.

The most likely reason is that they were still overenrolled after May 15. Schools expected a larger amount of withdrawals than they actually got. The Creighton example from an earlier post corroborates with SDN numbers showing about 1/3 overall wl movement this year compared to last. Come to think of it over-enrollment probably explains the situation best. If many schools are overenrolled then when someone withdraws, there won't be a spot for someone else. This clogs up the system and slows down overall movement. Normal movement can't commence until the vast majority of schools have reduced enrollment to their final desired numbers. This is an interesting intellectual puzzle that I'm quickly losing interest in. I just wanna get into med school!!!

 

[IceKid]

I just wanna get into med school!!!

i hear that... meeeeeeee too. good luck!

 

[NickelCreek]

I dunno about y'all but I got off the two waitlists I was on.

 

[Mr Reddly]

Ther have been individual cases such as UCI and USC with waitlist threads which have had a whole lot less movement this year than last.

edited to be more coherent and exact 😀

number of SDN peeps accepted off of the UCI wl last year between 5-11 and 6-28
8 ( qdefiant, kiping, OptimusPrime, Cheese2girl, saga112, jrobbieUCD, Dr. PC, bruingirl)

number of SDN peeps accepted off of the UCI wl this year between 5-11 and 6-28
15 ( twizzlers, angstrom55, kenshinoro2004, babyface, lirpa2004, E-star, dabenxiong, AlreadyInDebt, ZOT! ZOT!, Eric1332, asdfjkl, MDinSD, adorible23, Pixye1, WillHague007)


number of SDN peeps accepted off of the UCI wl last year between 7-08 and 7-24
6 (The Chronic MD, JRSCGSR, moskeeto, lola, cipher, greenatp)

 

[Jalby]

Ohhh. Than I totally misread what you wrote. Mi Mal.

 

[Mr Reddly]

You were taking my comments for that? lol Guess I'd better work on vocab and grammar a little more. 😳 BTW, I modified my above post. It's a little more exact now. 😱

 

[aloughhe]

So, after all this rationalizing and figuring statistics, what do you think....do you think the waitlists will move this month?

 

[balaA7180]

I doubt that the level of reporting is so off that it would result in a nearly 3:1 difference. I know that SLU and Tulane have both seen significantly less movement than last year (this is coming straight from the deans of admissions at both schools). We can only hope that there will be a miraculous surge of movement in July. Unfortunately I don't think it's going to happen. For those few fortunate enough to progress from waitlist purgatory to acceptance heaven, be sure to thank your lucky stars.

That makes sense, but why is this change so dramatic THIS year. Did every school's ADCOM just discover a sure-fire method to predict whether students will attend their med school THIS year. I'm not buying it....

 

[yodaf]

That makes sense, but why is this change so dramatic THIS year. Did every school's ADCOM just discover a sure-fire method to predict whether students will attend their med school THIS year. I'm not buying it....

.
I agree the waitlist bubble has to burst shortly, and since there's about a month left till most schools start it has to be soon. There is absolutely noway that the ADCOM's were on the mark with all their offers. That being said I would love to know what caused the delay in waitlist movement. Any theories?

A burst of movement is inevitable....I hear fiber helps!!!

 

[beastmaster]

hey Yodaf, drop me an IM.

 

[Peterock]

.
I agree the waitlist bubble has to burst shortly, and since there's about a month left till most schools start it has to be soon. There is absolutely noway that the ADCOM's were on the mark with all their offers. That being said I would love to know what caused the delay in waitlist movement. Any theories?

A burst of movement is inevitable....I hear fiber helps!!!

I don't agree with this. Something tells me the WL's are staying put....

 

[Pre-Med-Guru]

I agree July has ALWAYS been the slowest moving month, and this year it will probably just be slower than before.
Talking to Deans it is due to the increase in applicants by almost 5% at each school, also the students and the stats are a lot higher than the past 4-5 years. So if you haven't heard anything yet, the chance you will is minimal.

 

[yodaf]

Hey Beastmaster just PM'ed you. Don't use any IM client, trying to limit my internet dependence.