Big Beautiful Bill's effect on psychology pro-school industry

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JeyRo

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Hey there, haven't been around here in awhile.

Was reviewing Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," now law.

Apparently it eliminates PLUS loans entirely for graduate programs, and limits Direct Loans to 100K aggregate maximum (currently $138,5000). Previously, students could (and often did) borrow 200-300K or more to finance their doctoral programs.

This would seem to be the equivalent of a nuclear bomb to the predatory "pro-school" industry which we've complained about for years around here. The Alliant / Pepperdine / Palo Alto University type programs look particularly vulnerable. Are we underestimating how significant this could be to the industry?

I found this chart over on Substack, which purports to summarize the changes. Comments?

Screenshot 2025-07-06 at 3.23.41 PM.png
 
While I give zero ****s about what this will do to the clinical psych diploma mill industry complex, I do worry about what it would do to medical school enrollments of there is no carveout there.
 
While I give zero ****s about what this will do to the clinical psych diploma mill industry complex, I do worry about what it would do to medical school enrollments of there is no carveout there.
Apparently in one of the earlier drafts of the bill it had a carveout for law & med school degrees, they previously got their aggregate limits to 200K just for them… no distinction made in the reconciliation bill just signed.
 
While I give zero ****s about what this will do to the clinical psych diploma mill industry complex, I do worry about what it would do to medical school enrollments of there is no carveout there.
While I don't like this bill, I am glad a byproduct of it will be, hopefully, less students attending self-pay, terrible PsyD programs. My father actually lives around the Wisconsin School of PP and it's ... I'm shocked they manage to find people to pay for it every time I drive by.

Lower income students going into medicine are going to be forced to take private loans, which if SoFi's stock is any indication, are probably going to have terrible terms and plentiful among future medical students.
 
I also wonder about whether it will actually lower tuition costs and/or cull poor-quality programs vs. just pump up the private student loan industry. I wouldn't be surprised if more schools even started offering loans themselves.
 
The downstream effects of this....I just can't imagine. Yeah maybe this gets rid of some of the Adlers, Alliants (are they even still around?), Chicago School's, etc., but who is going to be able to afford medical school or law school now with these restrictions? What are future borrowers left with? Private loans? Yikes...
 
I also wonder about whether it will actually lower tuition costs and/or cull poor-quality programs vs. just pump up the private student loan industry. I wouldn't be surprised if more schools even started offering loans themselves.
My bet is it will pump up the private loan industry for everything including PsyDs. In fact, it would not surprise me if for profit enrollment goes up because they help poor students secure loans. Remember the motto of this administration...privatize everything.
 
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My bet it will pump up the private loan industry for everything including PsyDs. In fact, it would not surprisec me if for profit enrollment goes up because they help poor students secure loans. Remember the motto of this administration...privatize everything.

Up to citizens to actually do anything about it. They can play along in the system, or they can break the system. I suspect they'll play along. People are great at bitching about things, not so much in the actually doing anything about it.
 
What is the societal version of a margin call? Let's see what happens when we reduce the foundation of 1/10th of the total par value of t bills. What could possibly go wrong?

*I would encourage everyone to spend an afternoon reading about how t-bill rates are created, how student loan rates are created, the total par value of the t bill market, and total par value of the federal student loan market.
 
What is the societal version of a margin call? Let's see what happens when we reduce the foundation of 1/10th of the total par value of t bills. What could possibly go wrong?

*I would encourage everyone to spend an afternoon reading about how t-bill rates are created, how student loan rates are created, the total par value of the t bill market, and total par value of the federal student loan market.
Say more!
 
Say more!
I really don't know.
1) The Fed was created as an independent bank, which prevents some politician from changing interest rates to appease the people (e.g., everyone would initially love a president who changed the interest rate to negative 20% or positive 20% or whatever, until the banks collapsed, and no one could buy gasoline). The Fed determines some central interest rates. Those interest rates are usually substantially lower than most commercial rates (e.g., commercial loans used to sit at like 9%, mortgage rates sat around 4%, and federal rates were around 1%).
2) The Department of the Treasury is where your IRS payments go. The Treasury lends money to people based upon the Federal Reserve interest rates. Everyone likes to lend money to the Treasury, even if it pays less than elsewhere, because the loans are guaranteed by the US Government (i.e., the USA would have to go under before the lender would be screwed). Short term loans to the Treasury are called T bills. Longer term loans are called t-notes. By issuing these loans, the Treasury ensures that interests rates are fairly for the foreseeable future (e.g., the federal government believes that the interest rates will be X in The next 6 months). Because foreign entities can lend money to the Treasury Department, the value of their money becomes tied to the USD, and we get some international monetary stability (e.g., if China has lent $20 billion yuan to the Treasury, then China's economy is mildly dependent on US interest rates).
3) You know how idiots talk about "the national debt" as if it is credit card loans? Approximately $29 trillion dollars of that debt are loans from the treasury department. Think about what would happen if Visa told everyone, “we don’t let anyone carry a balance, pay up, and ….”? End of business for Visa, most retail places go juts, most wholesale places lose it, etc. now go national, and think about what would happen if the Treasury told everyone, "we are no longer borrowing money. Here's your money, go away"?. Now no one wants to lend the US money, interests rates become unstable, the USD would become less stable, and we have all sorts of problems.
4) Federal student loan interest rates are Congressionally required to be a percentage of current T-note/bill rates (i.e., if the T bill pays 4%, then federal student loans must charge 7% to make sure they don't lose money). Federal student loans are also not discharge-able by bankruptcy, or other difficulties. Until 2018, disability didn't even stop your student loans obligation. It’s a way to lend money at a higher rate, get payment on that higher rate, and then lend those payments out at lower rate, etc.
5) The last published figure for the total value of federal student loan obligation was about $3 trillion.
6) The last published figure for the total value of T-bills, T-notes, and treasury bonds was about $29 Trillion.
7) The BBB says, “forget about lending money out at higher rates, which we could use to lend out at lower rates. While we are legally required to lend money out at one rate, we don’t want to lend money out at a higher rate, and us that to make money.”
 
I really don't know.
1) The Fed was created as an independent bank, which prevents some politician from changing interest rates to appease the people (e.g., everyone would initially love a president who changed the interest rate to negative 20% or positive 20% or whatever, until the banks collapsed, and no one could buy gasoline). The Fed determines some central interest rates. Those interest rates are usually substantially lower than most commercial rates (e.g., commercial loans used to sit at like 9%, mortgage rates sat around 4%, and federal rates were around 1%).
2) The Department of the Treasury is where your IRS payments go. The Treasury lends money to people based upon the Federal Reserve interest rates. Everyone likes to lend money to the Treasury, even if it pays less than elsewhere, because the loans are guaranteed by the US Government (i.e., the USA would have to go under before the lender would be screwed). Short term loans to the Treasury are called T bills. Longer term loans are called t-notes. By issuing these loans, the Treasury ensures that interests rates are fairly for the foreseeable future (e.g., the federal government believes that the interest rates will be X in The next 6 months). Because foreign entities can lend money to the Treasury Department, the value of their money becomes tied to the USD, and we get some international monetary stability (e.g., if China has lent $20 billion yuan to the Treasury, then China's economy is mildly dependent on US interest rates).
3) You know how idiots talk about "the national debt" as if it is credit card loans? Approximately $29 trillion dollars of that debt are loans from the treasury department. Think about what would happen if Visa told everyone, “we don’t let anyone carry a balance, pay up, and ….”? End of business for Visa, most retail places go juts, most wholesale places lose it, etc. now go national, and think about what would happen if the Treasury told everyone, "we are no longer borrowing money. Here's your money, go away"?. Now no one wants to lend the US money, interests rates become unstable, the USD would become less stable, and we have all sorts of problems.
4) Federal student loan interest rates are Congressionally required to be a percentage of current T-note/bill rates (i.e., if the T bill pays 4%, then federal student loans must charge 7% to make sure they don't lose money). Federal student loans are also not discharge-able by bankruptcy, or other difficulties. Until 2018, disability didn't even stop your student loans obligation. It’s a way to lend money at a higher rate, get payment on that higher rate, and then lend those payments out at lower rate, etc.
5) The last published figure for the total value of federal student loan obligation was about $3 trillion.
6) The last published figure for the total value of T-bills, T-notes, and treasury bonds was about $29 Trillion.
7) The BBB says, “forget about lending money out at higher rates, which we could use to lend out at lower rates. While we are legally required to lend money out at one rate, we don’t want to lend money out at a higher rate, and us that to make money.”

"I don't know".... but then writes 7 points of assertion to convince...someone? Dude???

Look man, no one on here is gonna fact check all that stuff. If you have something to say, just say it.
 
USA debt is leveraged to the hilt, whether it be the Fed or private debt bought by foreign countries. Add in a manipulated stock market and it’s all been optimized for billionaires. “Too Big To Fail” is a choice and political strategy, but not a sound plan.
 
"I don't know".... but then writes 7 points of assertion to convince...someone? Dude???

Look man, no one on here is gonna fact check all that stuff. If you have something to say, just say it.

Part of a formal system of logic, is the avoidance of an appeal to authority. I literally hold no special position in economic affairs. If I made definitive statements I would open my opinions to those arguments. And I don’t have any backing for my opinions.

I’m like a guy that’s worked at the McDonald’s nearest to the NYSE. Sure, I might have some insight, I might hear some things. But I’m likely under educated in the area, and not to be trusted.
 
I’m like a guy that’s worked at the McDonald’s nearest to the NYSE. Sure, I might have some insight, I might hear some things. But I’m likely under educated in the area, and not to be trusted.
Then why did you bother to write all that? So weird.

Again, if you have something to say, just say it, man.
 
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Then why did you bother to write all that? So weird.

Again, if you have something to say, just say it, man. Your ****s weird.
I don’t think you understand the difference between the merits of information vs the merits of who is providing the information.

Maybe I’m right, maybe I’m wrong. My standing in this matter (and most matters) is weirder than you could ever imagine.
 
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I don’t think you understand the difference between the merits of information bs the merits of who is providing the information.

Maybe I’m right, maybe I’m wrong. My standing in this matter (and most matters) is weirder than you could ever imagine.

The "merits of information bs???" How bout none. Doesn't matter who is providing the info, either.

And "Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong?" I think you may need to take another one of those confidence man/pickup artist classes, buddy. Not buying that stuff here.
 
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The "merits of information bs???" How bout none. Doesn't matter who is providing the info, either.

And "Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong?" I think you may need to take another one of those confidence man/pickup artist classes, buddy. Not buying that stuff here.

I mistyped, it should have read "vs". Although, I think that my correction won't change anything. You've said that when you say things, it's definitive and all the proof people need. Now you're saying that the identity of the person providing information doesn't matter either, which ruins your own position.

The conditional tense is fairly common in scientific literature. But thank you for suggesting that I to go pick up women and/or read Melville's Confidence Man. I'll run it by psygal. She wasn't really happy when a woman hit on me the other day, but maybe she has changed her mind.
 
Given the track record of grifting of Trump and many in his administration, I figure he and his cronies likely figure they'll make money off the increased private loans (and their investments in these companies) that many students will now need to turn to. And since RFK, Jr is anti science and many in the "administration' think science is bad, this has a further effect of reducing the number of scientists, experts, and doctors. There's also the added "benefit" that by reducing hardship programs and affordable repayment plans they can claim that it both creates more workers to exploit as people struggle to pay their bills or face garnishment; and "it reduces tax spending on helping people!" which, see their cuts to Medicaid and Medicare, is apparently also their goal. But hey there will be less providers to pay to treat patients, so even more "savings" to fund tax cuts to the ultra rich.

TL;DR: This is probably a direct way to further enrich themselves at the expense of students and the average American and has nothing to do with saving money or making education more affordable or accessible.


On the state of schools themselves, it will hopefully cripple and end diploma mills BUT I wouldn't be so sure, if Trump University is any indication, this administration might try to offer deals and breaks (for a cut of profits) to funnel students into diploma mills and private loans. Normal colleges and universities will either have to lower tuition or offer their own lending/funding to students.

I heard a lawyer saw her federal loans jump significantly in repayment she couldn't afford, she sued the DOE. I think you'll see more of that too.
 
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