Bird flu Pandemic: Anyone else scared?

[rjgennarelli]

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I really haven't been keeping up with the news lately, but I just heard, on cnn i believe, that the bird flu pandemic has a human mortality rate of about 50% once infected. They also said that it could potentially affect 20 % of our population, which could ultimately cause the closing of national borders, and in turn, huge economic losses. It is said that there currently is not vaccine for this virus and that it is most likely coming our way through international travel.

I really don't know how to feel. On one hand, it is a pandemic, which makes me scared, but I keep checking the cnn web page and they don't have any headlines on it, so maybe this means that it is such a "big deal" just yet.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

 

[tigress]

As far as I've heard there are only a few confirmed cases of human-to-human transmission. Almost all of the cases have been caught directly from birds. So thankfully we don't have to panic just yet. The danger is that the virus will infect somebody who is simultaneously infected with a human strain, and then the bird one (I think it's H5N1, right? I forget) will pick up the ability to transmit between people. It's worth paying attention to it, but for some reason I really don't think there will be a pandemic. Maybe I'm just naive.

I'm sure plenty of people on this board know a lot more about it than I'd do. I'd be interested to find out if they are at all worried.

 

[crazy_cavalier]

It's a bird flu, people. It can't hurt humans. 🙄

 

[rjgennarelli]

It's a bird flu, people. It can't hurt humans. 🙄

I'm not sure if you are joking or not, but on the contrary, it can.

 

[nockamura]

I'm not too worried. I'd be more worried about the virus that the CDC/WHO don't jump on. A good example is HIV with almost 100% mortality rate. CDC really screwed the pooch on that one.

I don't think I'd categorize the avian flu as a pandemic quite yet. A pandemic involves a significant amount of more than one population separated geographically.

 

[tacrum43]

It's a bird flu, people. It can't hurt humans. 🙄

Are you joking? Or are you not aware of how flu viruses mutate?

A lot of times a bird virus gets transmitted to a pig, where it then mutates to a form where humans are competent hosts. If the virus is significantly different from current strains, it is a "antigenic shift", like the 1918 pandemic, = bad news for people because our immune systems aren't used to anything like it. These deadly viruses usually die out though in a year or two because they kill their host, where an effective viruses uses their host to replicate, but doesn't kill them, at least not until they have had a chance to infect others (like HIV).

 

[nockamura]

I think the giggling monkey head at the bottom indicates that cavalier was joking. But I could be wrong and cavalier might in fact be a dinkis.

 

[rjgennarelli]

I'm not too worried. I'd be more worried about the virus that the CDC/WHO don't jump on. A good example is HIV with almost 100% mortality rate. CDC really screwed the pooch on that one.

I don't think I'd categorize the avian flu as a pandemic quite yet. A pandemic involves a significant amount of more than one population separated geographically.

Yes but this is said to kill its host within 48 hours.

 

[xSTALLiONx]

I really haven't been keeping up with the news lately, but I just heard, on cnn i believe, that the bird flu pandemic has a human mortality rate of about 50% once infected. They also said that it could potentially affect 20 % of our population, which could ultimately cause the closing of national borders, and in turn, huge economic losses. It is said that there currently is not vaccine for this virus and that it is most likely coming our way through international travel.

I really don't know how to feel. On one hand, it is a pandemic, which makes me scared, but I keep checking the cnn web page and they don't have any headlines on it, so maybe this means that it is such a "big deal" just yet.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

A) "Anyone else scared?" - You sound like a baby who still nurses their momma's teat..
B) If you get bird flu, and end up being in the 50% mortality rate, it just means that you were too weak (physically and mentally) according to Darwin and nature just righted itself..
C) If that would happen, you can add it to your Experiences on your AMCAS and explain how you helped the human population by dying off along with other weaklings who are scared by every pandemic warning..

👍

 

[tacrum43]

A) "Anyone else scared?" - You sound like a baby who still nurses their momma's teat..
B) If you get bird flu, and end up being in the 50% mortality rate, it just means that you were too weak (physically and mentally) according to Darwin and nature just righted itself..
C) If that would happen, you can add it to your Experiences on your AMCAS and explain how you helped the human population by dying off along with other weaklings who are scared by every pandemic warning..

👍

I sure hope you're my doctor someday 🙂. [/SARCASM]

 

[nockamura]

Seems to me that a virus that kills its host that fast actually limits its ability to spread.

 

[Dr2010]

look im not worried...so long as dustin hoffman lives and we have copies of Outbreak, Im sure we'll beat this thing.

 

[freaker]

I'd be more worried about the virus that the CDC/WHO don't jump on. A good example is HIV with almost 100% mortality rate. CDC.

HIV is a lot less scary than the bird flu. HIV is 100% preventable. The bird flu isn't.

You were probably using this as just an example of a virus the CDC didn't jump on, but these aren't really in the same league in terms of being a general threat.

 

[Law2Doc]

I really haven't been keeping up with the news lately, but I just heard, on cnn i believe, that the bird flu pandemic has a human mortality rate of about 50% once infected. They also said that it could potentially affect 20 % of our population, which could ultimately cause the closing of national borders, and in turn, huge economic losses. It is said that there currently is not vaccine for this virus and that it is most likely coming our way through international travel.

I really don't know how to feel. On one hand, it is a pandemic, which makes me scared, but I keep checking the cnn web page and they don't have any headlines on it, so maybe this means that it is such a "big deal" just yet.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

If it makes you feel any better, I'm sure in a few years when we are actually doing clinical work with patients there will be something even more new and scarier to worry about contracting. This is just the flavor of the month.

 

[sigepwelker]

HIV is a lot less scary than the bird flu. HIV is 100% preventable. The bird flu isn't.
.

Hmm....bird flu or HIV...well let's count up the death toll Tens of millions due to HIV/ AIDS or the what less than 100 due to avian flu. Oh yeah and the fact there's no a mutated strain of HIV that has been found in NY that kills it's host within 24 hours of infection. Seriously... I know CNN is the world's most trusted resource, but maybe look up WHO or CDC website.

BTW: Viruses such as Avian flu, West nile and Haunta virus are most deadly to older and/ or immunocomprimised pts. Unlike HIV

 

[Fed Meat]

Hmm....bird flu or HIV...well let's count up the death toll Tens of millions due to HIV/ AIDS or the what less than 100 due to avian flu. Oh yeah and the fact there's no a mutated strain of HIV that has been found in NY that kills it's host within 24 hours of infection. Seriously... I know CNN is the world's most trusted resource, but maybe look up WHO or CDC website.

BTW: Viruses such as Avian flu, West nile and Haunta virus are most deadly to older and/ or immunocomprimised pts. Unlike HIV

Go read tigress' post and get back with us.

If we're talking pandemic, this flu has the potential to wreak havoc in a way that AIDS couldn't simply through its means of transmission.

I think you're missing the boat here. The scare isn't what it is--it's what it COULD be.

 

[hardy]

Oh yeah and the fact there's no a mutated strain of HIV that has been found in NY that kills it's host within 24 hours of infection. Seriously...

uh... yeah, right.
A virus that is transmitted like HIV cannot kill its host within 24 hours. It would be absolutely self-limiting and the outbreak would be very small.

 

[Kazema]

They also said that it could potentially affect 20 % of our population, which could ultimately cause the closing of national borders, and in turn, huge economic losses. It is said that there currently is not vaccine for this virus and that it is most likely coming our way through international travel.

Closing borders is not an effective way to contain an outbreak - viruses don't respect arbitrary man-made lines.

The WHO no longer suggests closing borders or limiting entry due to lack of proven health benefit:

http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/WHO_CDS_CSR_GIP_2005_5.pdf
(pg 45).

Doesn't mean that governments wouldn't do it just to make citizens happy, it's just not considered effective and really shouldn't be done.

I'm not so much scared of it as I am sad about it, because in all likelyhood it's not us or anyone we know who will be getting sick from it; it's the millions of people who don't have convenient access to modern sanitation and health care who will. Or the people with convenient access but can't afford it.

 

[MabdulD]

From what I've read about this, there almost certainly will be an outbreak of a human form of this virus at some point. Right now, there have been very few cases of human-to-human transmission, but its only a matter of time. Because this bug is found almost entirely in rural areas of underdeveloped countries, there really is no infrastructure available to prevent an outbreak. So, finding some kind of vaccine is extremely important.

The virus has already led to a huge economic loss in a number of Asian countries. I think I read that Hong Kong eradicated its entire poulty population, some 1.5 million chickens, but the virus is still being found in their poultry. So, imagine what sorts of problems less capable areas will encounter.

Beware the avian flu.

 

[rjgennarelli]

uh... yeah, right.
A virus that is transmitted like HIV cannot kill its host within 24 hours. It would be absolutely self-limiting and the outbreak would be very small.

Well I heard that it was 48 hours. It you still doubt this, it is true; those who do die from this virus are killed within 48 hours.

 

[rjgennarelli]

Closing borders is not an effective way to contain an outbreak - viruses don't respect arbitrary man-made lines.

Okay, well I didn't know that. I was just reiterating what I heard on CNN last night.

 

[Avenue Q]

I was in avian flu affected areas for 5 months. It wasn't a big deal. Bird to human transmission can only occur if the animal is alive, and you cannot contract it by eating cooked chicken. There have been few, if any, confirmed casese of transmission from human to human. The biggest danger is to the income of impoverished livestock farmers who had to kill off their entire flocks.

The media completely overblows most of what happens in the world. We live in a culture where fear sells. Not ONCE did i think about avian flu, and neither did anyone else. Take SARS for example, which was a major outbreak. There was footage on every single station depicting motorcyclists with masks on, supposedly to protect them from transmission. However, those masks weren't new, and people still wear there - so they don't have to breathe exhust.

One thing I have learned is that the international impression of things is normally far from the reality of the day to day situation on the ground. For epidemiologists, avian flu is a big deal. Right now, it's more of a economic problem than an medical one.

 

[tigress]

Well I heard that it was 48 hours. It you still doubt this, it is true; those who do die from this virus are killed within 48 hours.

Only ONE person had this strain of the virus; IIRC, he didn't even pass it on to his partners. And he didn't die in 48 hours. Go look it up. It was a big scare but it was pretty much meaningless. The issue was that the strain was drug resistant, not that it was super-virulent.

 

[rjgennarelli]

A) "Anyone else scared?" - You sound like a baby who still nurses their momma's teat..

You will make a great doctor one day.

B) If you get bird flu, and end up being in the 50% mortality rate, it just means that you were too weak (physically and mentally) according to Darwin and nature just righted itself..

You do not know this for a fact. Some of those who died from the bird flu could have been considered more "fit" than those who survived. Survivors could just posses some kind of mild immunity. Also, those who survived the virus could have had access to better treatment, but oh, I guess those who have less money and live in rural areas should be considered less fit than others.

C) If that would happen, you can add it to your Experiences on your AMCAS and explain how you helped the human population by dying off along with other weaklings who are scared by every pandemic warning..

👍

...I give up.

 

[tigress]

I was in avian flu affected areas for 5 months. It wasn't a big deal. Bird to human transmission can only occur if the animal is alive, and you cannot contract it by eating cooked chicken. There have been few, if any, confirmed casese of transmission from human to human. The biggest danger is to the income of impoverished livestock farmers who had to kill off their entire flocks.

The media completely overblows most of what happens in the world. We live in a culture where fear sells. Not ONCE did i think about avian flu, and neither did anyone else. Take SARS for example, which was a major outbreak. There was footage on every single station depicting motorcyclists with masks on, supposidly to protect them from transmission. However, those masks weren't new, and people still wear there - so they don't have to breathe exhust.

For epidemiologists, avian flu is a big deal. Right now, it's more of a economic problem than an medical one.

These are good points. Actually, though, I think a lot of epidemiologists and other public health officials are making much of the noise on this one, though of course the media doesn't mind the business 😛. Seems like public health people in high places really are worried about the possibility of a pandemic of avian-based flu. But that's exactly why I'm not too scared: I think it's the viruses we don't know about that we ought to fear. SARS was actually handled really well. Actually the coolest part was when the sequenced it in the space of one week! Amazing. And things we don't really understand, like the filoviruses or Lassa fever, those are scary (though at least they're generally self-limiting outbreaks).

Somebody mentioned that a virus like the flu is most dangerous to older and/or immunocompromised patients. While that is generally true, with these oddball flu strains it seems not to be the case. In the 1918 pandemic, for example, a huge percentage of the dead were actually healthy young people. Perhaps the war contributed to that stat, but most scientists seem to think it really had a special virulence. The avian-derived pandemic could potentially have the same pattern.

Also, with modern travel, I'm not sure it's only the third world areas or areas without access to healthcare that would suffer from a global flu pandemic. Plenty of people in the US die from the flu every year even with this access, and if a particularly dangerous strain were to emerge, it's possible that modern healthcare would only make a dent in the outbreak. At least that's how it seems to me, but of course I'm no expert!

 

[Mitro]

First off, scientists have known about this risk for years. It seems kind of strange that it's becoming a big deal now. Second, the real risk from avian strains is transmissions to humans via a secondary reservoir for the virus. For instance, if you have a pig than can get infected by both human and avian influenza, then the viruses can "recombinate" leading to a crazy virulent form since very few people on earth have antibodies against avian influenza variants. Scientists think this is what caused the 1918 pandemic - which happened to kill more people than WWI.

So yes, the risk is real. But no, there is nothing you can do about - so deal with it.

 

[tigress]

First off, scientists have known about this risk for years. It seems kind of strange that it's becoming a big deal now. Second, the real risk from avian strains is transmissions to humans via a secondary reservoir for the virus. For instance, if you have a pig than can get infected by both human and avian influenza, then the viruses can "recombinate" leading to a crazy virulent form since very few people on earth have antibodies against avian influenza variants. Scientists think this is what caused the 1918 pandemic - which happened to kill more people than WWI.

So yes, the risk is real. But no, there is nothing you can do about - so deal with it.

Yes, it's true that the biggest risk is from a secondary reservoir. But actually some of the scientists doing phylogenetic analysis of the 1918 strain argue that the virus did not go through pigs before transmission to humans, but they don't know what animal host it emerged from. For a good summary of this you can read the article about the search for details of the 1918 strain in the January 2005 edition of Scientific American. Some of the authors' research is published in the Journal of Virology and the Journal of General Virology in 2003 and 2004 (just look for 1918 influenza virus).

Just a quibbling detail, but it's quite interesting. There are a number of good books about the 1918 pandemic. I read a book just generally about the flu called simply Flu. And there's a book called Devil's Flu by Pete Davies that is about the scientific hunt for the 1918 virus. The article in the Scientific American has a number of references as well.

 

[joffo]

Avian Flu will decimate the world as SARS did before it. Tens of people will be killed all over the world! Unfortunately we are desperately low on one of the few cures...soda crackers and Sprite. And if only someone had had the foresight to put chicken soup, the other know cure, in some sort of packaging device that would allow its storage until such time as it was needed. Perhaps the emerging technology of placing perishable food in cylindrical metal "cans" would have saved us. By stockpiling these "cans" for just such an emergency humanity might have been spared another cruel SARS-like harvest of death.

 

[Mitro]

Yes, it's true that the biggest risk is from a secondary reservoir. But actually some of the scientists doing phylogenetic analysis of the 1918 strain argue that the virus did not go through pigs before transmission to humans, but they don't know what animal host it emerged from. For a good summary of this you can read the article about the search for details of the 1918 strain in the January 2005 edition of Scientific American. Some of the authors' research is published in the Journal of Virology and the Journal of General Virology in 2003 and 2004 (just look for 1918 influenza virus).

Just a quibbling detail, but it's quite interesting. There are a number of good books about the 1918 pandemic. I read a book just generally about the flu called simply Flu. And there's a book called Devil's Flu by Pete Davies that is about the scientific hunt for the 1918 virus. The article in the Scientific American has a number of references as well.

I admit that the last papers I read on it were the science and PNAS papers when they "sequenced" it.

 

[xSTALLiONx]

You will make a great doctor one day.

I know.. I'm not gonna sit around going.. "OMG.. This might be a pandemic cause CNN said so" - in a gay lisp..

You do not know this for a fact. Some of those who died from the bird flu could have been considered more "fit" than those who survived. Survivors could just posses some kind of mild immunity. Also, those who survived the virus could have had access to better treatment, but oh, I guess those who have less money and live in rural areas should be considered less fit than others.

Mild immunity is considered more fit.. Fit does not mean FITNESS..
And yes, those who have more money and access to resources are better.. As are the animals who go to the areas with the most food or gazelle to hunt down.. they have an abundance of resources.. and are positioned correctly for armegged.. err i mean.. your lil' pandemic

...I give up.

You'll make a great doctor..

 

[xSTALLiONx]

Avian Flu will decimate the world as SARS did before it. Tens of people will be killed all over the world! Unfortunately we are desperately low on one of the few cures...soda crackers and Sprite. And if only someone had had the foresight to put chicken soup, the other know cure, in some sort of packaging device that would allow its storage until such time as it was needed. Perhaps the emerging technology of placing perishable food in cylindrical metal "cans" would have saved us. By stockpiling these "cans" for just such an emergency humanity might have been spared another cruel SARS-like harvest of death.

👍

 

[Avenue Q]

Mild immunity is considered more fit.. Fit does not mean FITNESS..
And yes, those who have more money and access to resources are better.. As are the animals who go to the areas with the most food or gazelle to hunt down.. they have an abundance of resources.. and are positioned correctly for armegged.. err i mean.. your lil' pandemic

Wow, who knew Social Darwinism was back in vogue?