Numbers:
No GRE or MCAT yet. By the time of application, barring a catastrophe and miracle, GPA should be somewhere be between 3.2 to 3.4, probably closer to the the lower end. Somewhat of an upward trend, but nothing I'd fit a curve to.
Your GPA is lower than average but not so low that it will automatically get you put into the reject pile for MD-only applications. I don't know about MD/PhD programs, but it's reasonable for you to apply to MD-only programs with that GPA, especially since you have an upward trend.
Research:
I will have two semesters and a summer by the time of application. No publications or anything as of yet, but a possibility. Half the time spent on grunt work, half spent involved in more enriching endeavors.
You might be a little light on the research experience for MD/PhD programs compared to other applicants, but just FYI, a pub is not necessary for successful application.
Letters of recommendation:
I'll be getting one from a practicing MD, one from the department chair (took a class he taught), and one from my PI.
Good. Many MD-only schools will also want a nonscience prof letter, so plan on getting one. My state schools also require a peer letter written by another student. I don't know if other states have this requirement, but again, you may need one. Check the requirements for your state schools.
Extra curricular:
EMT-B certified. A few hundred hours of experience, split between volunteering and working. Plan to do some more volunteer stuff in a clinic this summer, but that may be too late for the written portion of applications.
Terrific EC for MD-only programs. Consider asking your supervisor for a LOR.
I'm a TA for one of my University's PE classes, basically a certified Instructor and act in that capacity.
Ditto. Make sure your dept. chairman comments about your performance as an instructor in his LOR.
I know I'm not in a "doomed to failure" position, my GPA just makes me nervous for med school applications and my research background seems light for physician-scientist programs.
It probably doesn't help that my major is light on pre-meds so most of the stats I see are here on SDN, which tend to be higher than a representative sample...
SDN is *not* representative of most premeds. Being nervous is understandable; it's never easy to want something badly and face the possibility of not succeeding. But that's still no excuse to not try. When are you planning to take the MCAT? It's pretty tough to gauge your ultimate competitiveness without an MCAT score.
Assuming you can score in the 30ish range on the MCAT, I'd guess you're probably more competitive for an MD program right now versus MD/PhD. Most if not all MD programs care a great deal about people's volunteering, teaching, and clinical ECs, and you appear to have pretty extensive experience in all of these areas. But like you said, your research experience might be kind of light compared to most MD/PhD applicants. So right now you should prepare for the MCAT and aim for at least a 30. Then, you can either apply this summer for MD programs with the option to add on a PhD (many, many schools offer this option, including state schools), or you can put off applying for a year or two to work in a research lab, get more experience, and maybe even take a few more upper level science classes to help shore up that GPA. The upside is that you'd be a stronger MD/PhD candidate, but the downside is having to wait for a year or two to apply.
Best of luck to you.
🙂