Chance of acceptance and its relevance to number of application

[distressstudent]

---

Members don't see this ad.

I am applying to dental school soon, and I am looking/crunching some numbers. Looking for some opinions on my "math".

So the applicant to enrollee ratio is usually 2:1. That means about 50% of the applicants get into at least one dental school. The average application a dental student sent out is 10. For the average applicant, that's about 5% acceptance per application.

Now that number is a rough estimate because of oos and instate consideration. Some in state schools like Ohio accepted 102 of 235 Ohio applicants. That's almost 50%. Meanwhile schools in california only 10% of California applicants every year. For schools that are oos-friendly (my definition: accepts more than 20 oos applicant per cycle), the average acceptance rate for the average applicant is roughly 5%.

So my conclusion is that when trying to apply to dental school, try to add up your total acceptance rate to 100%. If you are above average for a particular school, give yourself a few more percentages for that school.

However, I can't figure out if I should use enrolled applicant's stats or the average applicant's stat to use as a standard. (Can't figure out which makes more sense. Thoughts?).

So in my case, I am a California resident with a 3.55 (science and overall, roughly) and 23/20 on AA/PAT. So my GPA is average and my DAT is also more or less average (for enrolled applicant). So if I apply to school with roughly the same numbers as my scores, I estimate that to be 6 california school (60%) and 8 out of state school (40%)? Actually I will take out USC (expensive) and decrease 5% on UCLA (because my numbers are below their average), and that would require 5 California school and 11 out of state to match 100%. Do these numbers sound correct?

Please point out any flaws and fallacy that I should consider (I am sure I made many). Thanks!




--------------------------
edit: This is separate but I am confused about something. How come some schools have really low number of oos application despite good oos % acceptance? For example, Ohio state accepts 10% (64) of their oos while case western accepts only 6.5% (179). But case western has 2800 oos application while Ohio only has 650. If we are talking about cost, case western is more expensive! Ohio state has a higher GPA average but only by slightly. Is there something I am failing to see? It seems like Ohio seems like a good oos to apply to yet it has way less application submission than case western?

 

[amfassz]

dat math tho

enrollees =/= acceptances so you have no way to take into account applicants with 0 acceptances and multiple acceptances

enrolled stats always better but accepted stats are usually slightly higher due to people with higher stats going elsewhere due to multiple acceptances

what is your point though? your stats are average to above average, apply to all the california schools, generous oos publics and finally oos privates as needed, you'll get into at least 1 with those stats

and everyone knows that the more schools you apply to the better chances of getting into dental school

 

[distressstudent]

Thanks for the feedback. I just want to approximate how much schools I would need to apply to. This stuff is expensive : s

 

[omgroll]

Just apply to many schools as you can. I applied to about total of 9 (excluding schools that I never submitted secondary apps to) and I think 10~15 is a safe range.

 

[ktran17]

Don't make this harder than it actually is. Once you begin creating your list of schools, you'll realize that you can realistically apply to only 16-20 schools.
This "magical" number stems from the fact that there are only 65 dental schools. Out of those 65, there are about 30 or so that you have a very very low chance of getting in, thus these schools can be easily written off. This is normally attributed to cost, unfavorable locations, and most importantly OOS/IS considerations.

For example: texas schools, tenn, miss, mosdoh, puerto rico , uw, uni of utah were some schools that I automatically crossed out. Why? I was considered an OOS applicant and my chances were slim to none at these schools.

Also, be wary of schools that present themselves as OOS friendly, because sometimes these seats are saved for applicants from neighboring states. However, on the opposite side of the spectrum, there are state schools that present themselves to be unfriendly, but actually give you good odds. I suggest you buy the ADEA guide to help you compile your list of schools.

 

[gnleff]

Honestly you shouldn't look at acceptances like that. Sure the numbers are there, but you're forgetting to take into account human error. The person that looks at your application, the unpredictability.

There are students who get accepted to prestigious schools with low gpa or DAT scores. There are also students who score near perfect DAT and high gpa that get no interviews.

If you're trying to calculate which schools to apply to then you're already spreading yourself too thin. You're obviously over thinking it, when you should be spending more time on studying for your DAT and school.

 

[distressstudent]

Thanks for the all the feedback.

@ktran: Yeah, after writing this, I was actually going through every school on the ADEA guidebook to look for schools. There's about 15 or so schools that are definitely locked in for me to apply to. Just based on oos/IS consideration though. I haven't really filtered out cost yet because they seem all roughly the same because even in state school costs about at least 300k for me lol. How would you filtered using location as a factor? I honestly don't know much enough about anything in the midwest (is that why Ohio have low number of application?)

@gnleff: Lol oh gosh. I hope you are not telling me to retake my DAT; I think it is good enough to not warrant a retake... Joking aside, I just had free time today because lab let us out early.

 

[ktran17]

Location is totally up to you. I am also from California and thus wanted to get away from the west coast. I prefer colder climates so that allowed me to eliminate most of the southern states like Florida .

 

[rmw3]

Case Western attracts many Canadian applicants (if I remember correctly) and they're a private school so in state/out of state doesn't matter. They're cheaper than osu too if you're out of state. and case western visits many many many schools across the country to promote their program so that would add to the number of applicants

Source: PA resident with similar stats to yours that got accepted to both Ohio schools

 

[distressstudent]

@rmw3 : wait that's strange then. I am looking the cost of attendance from guidebook and it says that case costs 350k for OOS and Ohio costs 300k for OOS. But yeah I guess maybe all the promotion adds to that many number of applicants (Case visited my school too so I knew about it before hand).

 

[rmw3]

That OSU number isn't correct (http://dent.osu.edu/OAA/FinancialAid/cost_FY15_nonresident.php). They do allow you to apply for in-state status but they're very picky about it, whereas case does not distinguish.

 

[distressstudent]

Oh I see. Thanks for the clarification!