Chances post interview

[710118]

Schools generally admit somewhere between 20 and 40 percent of the people who they are interviewing. Are the students selected for earlier interviews generally accepted at a higher rate? For example, if a student interviews in early September, is it possible that 70-80 percent of the cohort of students interviewed then get accepted whereas interviewing in Feb might mean only 10-20 percent?

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[ThrowawayShmoaway]

Depends on the school

 

[ChymeofPassion]

Following.

 

[907914]

Schools generally admit somewhere between 20 and 40 percent of the people who they are interviewing. Are the students selected for earlier interviews generally accepted at a higher rate? For example, if a student interviews in early September, is it possible that 70-80 percent of the cohort of students interviewed then get accepted whereas interviewing in Feb might mean only 10-20 percent?

I have no hard data on this, but if you interview in September then you are competing for 100% of seats against less than 50% of applicants who are already marked complete at the school. If you are interviewing in February, you are competing for less than 30% of seats against 100% of applicants marked complete. If the school has rolling admissions, my bets are on early interviews being higher yield for acceptances.

 

[907914]

I have no hard data on this, but if you interview in September then you are competing for 100% of seats against less than 50% of applicants who are already marked complete at the school. If you are interviewing in February, you are competing for less than 30% of seats against 100% of applicants marked complete. If the school has rolling admissions, my bets are on early interviews being higher yield for acceptances.

Additionally, if you were a day-oner than the chances are that you are also one of the more competitive applicants as typically the earlier applicant pool is more unbalanced towards high stats, gunners, good ECs, and just overall prepared students. So, if you are getting an early interview invite for an early interview date, you were more likely to have been selected as a top candidate out of a pool that is more competitive than later in the cycle. This is my personal assessment of what I am seeing in the school specific threads and I could be totally wrong.

 

[710118]

Additionally, if you were a day-oner than the chances are that you are also one of the more competitive applicants as typically the earlier applicant pool is more unbalanced towards high stats, gunners, good ECs, and just overall prepared students. So, if you are getting an early interview invite for an early interview date, you were more likely to have been selected as a top candidate out of a pool that is more competitive than later in the cycle. This is my personal assessment of what I am seeing in the school specific threads and I could be totally wrong.

My thoughts exactly. Even with schools that aren't rolling admission, I would think more people who interview early get in because they tend to be stronger candidates. Would love to hear some thoughts by @Goro @LizzyM @gyngyn and other adcoms on this.

 

[deleted804295]

I have no hard data on this, but if you interview in September then you are competing for 100% of seats against less than 50% of applicants who are already marked complete at the school. If you are interviewing in February, you are competing for less than 30% of seats against 100% of applicants marked complete. If the school has rolling admissions, my bets are on early interviews being higher yield for acceptances.

Less than 50% complete in September? Where are these numbers coming from? 🙂

 

[907914]

My thoughts exactly. Even with schools that aren't rolling admission, I would think more people who interview early get in because they tend to be stronger candidates. Would love to hear some thoughts by @Goro @LizzyM @gyngyn and other adcoms on this.

So, our assumptions may not necessarily be that early interviews yield a higher rate of acceptance, but that better candidates interview early.

 

[Goro]

Schools generally admit somewhere between 20 and 40 percent of the people who they are interviewing. Are the students selected for earlier interviews generally accepted at a higher rate? For example, if a student interviews in early September, is it possible that 70-80 percent of the cohort of students interviewed then get accepted whereas interviewing in Feb might mean only 10-20 percent?

Yup. Our wily old Admissions Dean constantly badgers us with comments like "if s/he doesn't get accepted, they'll easily go elsewhere!"

And conversely, much later into the cycle, when seats are filling up, we start being way more picky.

 

[907914]

Less than 50% complete in September? Where are these numbers coming from? 🙂

This was something I spitballed a while back with the super inaccurate measure of google trends. Doing a riemann sum in one day increments of people googling "AMCAS Application" yields around 25% of people submitting by mid June, and 50% by July 1. I figure the people who submit by July 1 will be able to have everything in before September. The people that submit after July 1 are likely the procrastinators and/or unprepared applicants so they probably are not marked complete by the end of September. You can see I am making a lot of super judgmental assumptions and so this is not a wholly scientific process lol

 

[907914]

Less than 50% complete in September? Where are these numbers coming from? 🙂

Combine with this Reddit chart:

 

[907914]

Combine with this Reddit chart:

View attachment 273161

Regardless of my back-of-the napkin calculations, this highlights why an early application for MD is paramount.

 

[PA_dud3]

WVSOM accepts over 50% of the applicants interviewed, I believe. Maybe more.

 

[907914]

WVSOM accepts over 50% of the applicants interviewed, I believe. Maybe more.

Reddit says 94%.....

 

[Cornfed101]

Reddit says 94%.....

How bad would that suck to be in the 6%? What happened? Did you kick the dean’s dog?

 

[AnMDtoB]

Additionally, if you were a day-oner than the chances are that you are also one of the more competitive applicants as typically the earlier applicant pool is more unbalanced towards high stats, gunners, good ECs, and just overall prepared students. So, if you are getting an early interview invite for an early interview date, you were more likely to have been selected as a top candidate out of a pool that is more competitive than later in the cycle. This is my personal assessment of what I am seeing in the school specific threads and I could be totally wrong.

URMs, legacies, wild EC students (olympics/national champ), a combination etc. may also be pushed to the front of the line for review too

 

[Mad Jack]

It's 100% or 0%, all depends on you

 

[LizzyM]

Here's one possible model where it doesn't matter when you interview as long as you eventually rise to the top:

Let's say we will interview 800 applicants and make 300 offers. Interview first 200, rank those applicants and make 50 offers off the top. Interview another 200, combine them with the 150 who didn't get offers earlier, rank, take 50 off the top, Repeat again. Now 600 have been interviewed and 150 have been made offers. Now interview the last 200, combine with prior applicants who have not yet received offer and take the top 150 off the top. No matter when you interview, as long as you end up in the top 300, you will get an offer.

Edited for bad math.

It is still important to apply early so as to get an interview.

 

[710118]

Here's one possible model where it doesn't matter when you interview as long as you eventually rise to the top:

Let's say we will interview 800 applicants and make 300 offers. Interview first 200, rank those applicants and make 50 offers off the top. Interview another 200, combine them with the 150 who didn't get offers earlier, rank, take 50 off the top, Repeat again. Now 450 have been interviewed and 150 have been made offers. Now interview the last 150, combine with prior applicants who have not yet received offer and take the top 150 off the top. No matter when you interview, as long as you end up in the top 300, you will get an offer.

It is still important to apply early so as to get an interview.

Even in this model, wouldnt the people who interviewed early still have a higher chance of an acceptance? Are students who interview in the early months, on average, stronger candidates? If they are, I would expect this group to be offered acceptances at a rate greater than the overall acceptance rate post interview, regardless of when the schools rank someone relative to the next 150.

 

[Isoval]

Even in this model, wouldnt the people who interviewed early still have a higher chance of an acceptance? Are students who interview in the early months, on average, stronger candidates? If they are, I would expect this group to be offered acceptances at a rate greater than the overall acceptance rate post interview, regardless of when the schools rank someone relative to the next 150.

I mean, if you suck, you're still going to be at the bottom of the barrel no matter how many times you're reconsidered.

There's a small margin that will, in fact, roll over that "top 50" from cut to cut, but this overlap can be expected to be fairly small. Especially as you start experiencing more cuts, those applicants not in the top 50 get worse and worse.

 

[LizzyM]

What this does is leave a large bolus of applicants who will be admitted until the end.

Often the strongest candidates are interviewed early because schools skim off the hottest prospects and try to get them interviewed before Oct 15 when, common wisdom says, they will have at least one offer and will stop interviewing all over the place and get more picky. Schools want to get those interview invitations and offers out early. That said, many non-trads and students at schools with bad advising will apply late because they don't know any better. Some of these applicants are very good and would be overlooked in a system that front loads the admission process and has a disporportionate number of offers made early rather than late.

 

[LizzyM]

I mean, if you suck, you're still going to be at the bottom of the barrel no matter how many times you're reconsidered.

There's a small margin that will, in fact, roll over that "top 50" from cut to cut, but this overlap can be expected to be fairly small. Especially as you start experiencing more cuts, those applicants not in the top 50 get worse and worse.

The applicants not in the top 50 don't necessarily get worse and worse.

The person who was #51 in round 1, ends up being #1 before the next group of applicants is added to the pool. That applicant could be #1 or #2 when it comes time to make the next cut, if they were better than everyone, or almost everyone, in that second wave, or they could fall far down the list if the second wave is particularly strong.

Remember, in this example we are skimming 25% of the pool but eventually we'll admit 32% of the pool by going deeper in the last pass.